A conservation framework for the golden eagle in Scotland: Refining condition targets and assessment of constraint influences

Conservation strategies have three elements: species protection, site protection and, the most challenging component, conservation in the wider environment. Watson and Whitfield [Watson, J., Whitfield, P., 2002. A conservation framework for the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos in Scotland. Journal of Raptor Research 36(1 Suppl.), 41-49.] proposed a conservation framework for the golden eagle in Scotland whose main innovation, taking a lead from EU conservation Directives, was to incorporate the concept of favourable condition and its maintenance by implementing conservation policies that are regionally targeted at known constraints in the wider environment. Three criteria were suggested to judge favourable condition: a national abundance target of breeding pairs, national and regional targets for breeding productivity, and regional targets for the extent of suitable habitat which is occupied by breeding pairs. Here we refine these criteria, first to take the national abundance target and use it to set regional targets. Distribution targets were implicitly incorporated by this process because abundance targets were set regionally, with regard to the proportion of known territories which should be occupied. This allowed us to dispense with the distribution criterion as originally proposed. Our next refinement was to base regional demographic targets not only on breeding productivity, but also on indirect measures of survival (which are likely to have more influence on population dynamics). Despite apparent overall population stability over the last 20 years, the national golden eagle population failed to meet the abundance target and only 3 of 16 regions where eagles have occupied territories since 1982 were considered to be in favourable condition. The key constraint preventing favourable condition being met was persecution, predominantly in some areas managed for grouse shooting. The advantages of a conservation framework over similar approaches, such as species action plans, are highlighted.     

Spatial association as an indicator of the potential for future interactions between wind energy developments and golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos in Scotland

Despite their environmental benefits in generating electricity without emission of ‘greenhouse’ gases, wind farms have attracted controversy with regard to their impacts on birds, especially golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos. Evidence from USA studies suggest eagle fatalities through collision with turbines may be the main potential impact whereas for breeding eagles in Scotland, displacement from wind farm areas (indirect habitat loss) may be the primary impact. In this study, we examined the co-occurrence potential for golden eagles and wind farms in Scotland by documenting the spatial association between wind farm proposals and breeding eagle territories and areas potentially suitable for non-breeding eagles. Although there were records for over 500 wind farm proposals at various stages of development, relatively few coincided with eagle territories (ca. 4% of territories had a proposal within 3 km of territory centre). Similarly, only 2% of habitat predicted to be suitable for non-breeding eagles overlapped with proposed or installed wind farm areas. Moreover, estimates of the potential for electricity generation from all wind farm proposals, with respect to government targets for renewable energy supplies, suggested most proposals were unlikely to be constructed. We conclude that in comparison with other constraints on Scotland’s golden eagles, notably persecution, wind farms should not represent a serious concern if best practice in planning their location and minimising their impact are maintained. Potential future regional pressures on breeding eagles from wind farms are highlighted, however, and uncertainty of impact with respect to displacement or collision fatalities requires continued scrutiny.     

Linking nest histories,remotely sensed land use data and wildlife crime records to explore the impact of grouse moor management on peregrine falcon populations

Wildlife crime can be difficult to quantify, and its true impact on populations can be underestimated if rates are under-recorded. The illegal killing of birds of prey is an important form of wildlife crime, which in the UK, is often associated with land managed for the recreational shooting of red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus. In the UK, increases in peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus following recovery from organo-chlorine pesticides have not been uniform, with slow growth and localised declines in some areas, including those managed for red grouse shooting. In this study, we combined 1081 peregrine nest histories across northern England between 1980 and 2006 with a remotely sensed map of grouse moor management, to test whether breeding performance was lower in areas with active management for grouse shooting. Productivity of pairs on grouse moors was 50% lower than pairs breeding on non-grouse moor habitat. However, clutch size and brood size of successful nests did not differ between habitat types, suggesting that food constraints were unlikely to explain this difference. Population models suggested source-sink dynamics, with populations on grouse moors unable to sustain themselves without immigration. Population data confirmed that growth rates were indeed lower on grouse moors than on non-grouse moor sites. Analysis of wildlife crime data confirmed that persecution of the species was more frequent on grouse moors than in other habitat types. This population will be more secure, and better able to function as a barometer of environmental health and climate change, if illegal persecution of the species ceases on areas of land managed for grouse shooting.     

A nine-year study of successful breeding in a Bonelli’s eagle population in southeast Spain: a basis for conservation

We analyse the factors influencing breeding success in a healthy population of Bonelli’s eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus) from south-east Spain, a raptor that has suffered a serious decline in Europe. Between 18 and 33 pairs were annually monitored during the period 1994-2002. Several factors that may affect four breeding parameters were studied, namely human presence, vegetation, relief, climatic factors, intra- and inter-specific relationships, diet, prey abundance, nest building, adult mortality and age of reproduction. A consistently high breeding success was registered during the study period (productivity=1.43, SD=0.11), which was probably the result of high adult survival, adequate prey availability and mild weather conditions. However, a certain vulnerability to the presence of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) and to human disturbance was observed. One interesting result was the reduced survival of young chicks on north-facing cliffs owing to colder conditions, which may partially explain the decline of the Bonelli’s eagle populations along its European distribution limits. We discuss the role of this healthy subpopulation in an Iberian metapopulation context, and propose that the potential interference of golden eagles should be taken into account when designing management strategies for Bonelli’s eagles. Finally, we pinpoint some conservation priorities and the importance of reducing the main causes of adult mortality (i.e. shooting and electrocution) to assure successful reproduction and survival of this species.     

Illegal killing slows population recovery of a re-introduced raptor of high conservation concern - The red kite Milvus milvus

The re-introduction of extirpated species is a valuable conservation tool. Red kites Milvus milvus are declining over much of their European range and have been re-introduced to England and Scotland, following their extinction due to widespread human persecution during the 19th century. Considerable regional variation in population growth exists. This study aims to identify the proximate demographic and ultimate environmental constraints on red kites in north Scotland, a region with low population growth. Productivity in north Scotland was high compared to other Scottish and Welsh populations and equal to English populations with high population growth rates. In north Scotland, annual survival of wild-fledged birds was low for first-year birds compared to other Scottish populations and second-year survival declined over time. In north Scotland, 40% of 103 red kites found dead were killed illegally, mainly by direct poisoning. In the absence of illegal killing, we estimate that annual survival rates in wild red kites might increase from 0.37 to 0.54, 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.87 to 0.92 for first, second-year and adult birds respectively. Demographic rates from this study produce population trends that recapitulate observed trends for the north Scotland population (leading to a population of c40 pairs by 2006). Models in which the additive illegal killing mortality is excluded, predict a population trajectory and size (c300 pairs by 2006) very similar to that found in the Chilterns, a rapidly growing population (320 pairs in 2006) in south-east England re-introduced at the same time, but where rates of illegal killing are much lower. We conclude that illegal killing of red kites is the cause of poor population growth in north Scotland and the key challenge facing government is to find a way to eliminate this killing.     

Re-introduction of the golden eagle into the Republic of Ireland

The golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) became extinct in the Republic of Ireland in about 1912. Historical evidence suggests that, in the early nineteenth century, the population exceeded 50 pairs. It is thought that the extinction was a consequence of persecution and habitat change. Because there seems little chance of natural recolonisation a re-introduction programme has been developed. It is intended to release up to 15 birds per year for 5 years, starting in 2001. Single chicks will be obtained from Scottish nests with twins. The ways in which this project adheres to the six main IUCN re-introduction criteria are addressed. Two simulation models are described. The first, GEPM, demonstrates that the removal of chicks from Scottish nests should not have a detrimental effect on the Scottish population. The second model predicts the probable home range occupancy if only 12 birds are released each year. It is expected that between 3 and 13 ranges will be occupied by 2007. The imprecision in this estimate is a consequence of uncertainty about juvenile survival rates. The rationale behind our reintroduction scheme is outlined to stimulate debate about the development of good practice.     

Variations in the age of mates as an early warning signal of changes in population trends? The case of Bonelli's eagle in Andalusia

Methods to evaluate population trends have recently received particular attention because of the decreasing patterns shown by several species since the nineteenth century. We have studied demographic traits of the Bonelli's eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus) population of Andalusia (southern Spain) for 20 years (1980-2000). This species is endangered and is suffering a rapid decline in most of its distribution range. Although our study population has remained stable for the last 10 years, both age at first breeding and productivity have decreased during the last 5 years. We propose that age at first breeding could be used as a potential early warning signal to detect possible future changes in population trends of long-lived species with deferred maturation age. In particular, in this species spatial variation in demographic traits could help to detect whether unnatural events such as shooting are decreasing age at first breeding and productivity. If occupation of territories by non-adults is caused by human persecution, conservation efforts in the particular case of Bonelli's eagle have to be directed to protect those breeding territories where an increase in the percentage of pairs containing at least one non-adult individual would be detected.     

Modelling the effects of persecution on the population dynamics of golden eagles in Scotland

We used observations of the age structure and breeding productivity of the Scottish population of golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos together with the classic theory of population dynamics to derive current `unmanipulated' estimates of life history parameters. We then used regional differences in age structure associated with differences in persecution intensity to derive estimates of prospective `persecution-free' life history parameters. The different parameter combinations were entered into a population model to simulate their effects on the number of occupied territories over time. Most simulations suggested that with unmanipulated demographic parameters the population should decline. The disparity between these predictions and the observed apparent stability in occupied territories was ascribed to the buffering effect of a lowering in age of breeding in areas where persecution is most intense and that more favourable parameter estimates within the estimated limits may be more realistic. The results indicated, nevertheless, that currently the population is vulnerable to decline as also suggested by the apparent lack of adults to occupy vacant territories. In the absence of the estimated 3-5% annual adult mortality through persecution, modelling suggested the population would increase. Removing estimated effects of persecution on reproductive rate and preadult survival were on their own insufficient to reverse the declines predicted from unmanipulated parameters, although the effect of persecution on preadult survival may be more severe than we estimated. In the absence of persecution we conclude that the population could expand to fill currently vacant but apparently suitable habitat and have a more secure long-term status.     

Conservation status and limiting factors in the endangered population of Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in the Canary Islands

Egyptian vulture populations have decreased sharply in the Western Palearctic; island populations are almost extinct in the Mediterranean and the Macaronesian regions. In the Canary archipelago, the species only survives in the islands of Fuerteventura and Lanzarote. During 1998-2001 we examined population parameters and evaluated some potential limiting factors for this isolated and sedentary population. The total population (breeding and non-breeding birds) was monitored annually. In addition, 26 fledglings and 33 immatures (<6 years old) and adult birds were captured for individual marking with plastic rings. Twenty-three/twenty-four occupied territories were located in the island and the total population estimated at around 130 birds. Breeding success was lower than recorded elsewhere in the species' distribution area: only 0.43 fledglings/pair/year were produced. Adult (>6 years old birds) and immature annual survival rates were similar, around 90%. Adult survival was lower than expected as territorial birds seem more susceptible to poisoning. Immature survival could be favoured by the existence of regular feeding places. Casualties from power lines was the main cause of mortality (12 cases during the study period). Blood sampling revealed high frequencies of lead poisoning: 13.5 and 2.7% of individuals showed sub-clinical and clinical intoxication levels, respectively, probably caused by the ingestion of lead shot. Priority conservation measures should be directed to reduce electrocution risks, illegal poisoning, and lead contamination. Population reinforcement with birds coming from other populations is not recommended as previous information reveals morphological and genetic differentiation of Canarian Egyptian vultures compared with continental populations.     

Regional conservation priorities for a large predator: golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Alpine range

We compared the density of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) and their nest dispersion, productivity and diet in Alpine and pre-Alpine areas. The comparison was made at two spatial scales: (1) at the territory level within two contiguous populations, and (2) at the population level, using published data for 22 populations scattered across four countries (France, Switzerland, Germany and Italy). Availability of golden eagle's main prey species was higher in Alpine than in pre-Alpine regions. The potential foraging ranges of pairs of eagles in the pre-Alps had larger amounts of woodland and lower amounts of suitable foraging habitat than those of Alpine pairs. At both spatial scales, density and productivity were lower in the pre-Alps. Also, pre-Alpine populations were characterised by a lower percentage of main prey species in the diet, which was significantly correlated with productivity, and by a higher breadth of diet, which was negatively correlated with density. Overall, higher prey availability and habitat suitability in the Alps resulted in higher density and breeding success, in a manner compatible with theoretical metapopulation models. We suggest that priority be given to conservation of eagle populations in high quality Alpine habitat, and that conservation action be carried out by a mixture of site-protection measures and conservation of the wider environment.     

Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of population growth to: (1) determine the pattern of growth in these populations, and (2) identify the demographic rates most important to growth. Trend estimates from population models were most similar to trend estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count data when models incorporated either a reproductive or survival event. These events randomly increased fecundity or survival, respectively, to their empirical maxima on average once every 5 years. Reproductive events improved estimates on areas dominated by mixed mesophytic forest, while survival events characterized population growth on oak (Quercus spp.)-dominated sites. The finite rate of increase (λ) was most sensitive to brood survival followed by adult and juvenile non-breeding survival on most sites. However, brood survival was low (<0.35 female chicks/hen survived to week 5), and elasticity analyses indicated λ responded more strongly to proportionate change in non-breeding and breeding survival rates of adults and juveniles than any reproductive variable. Life stage analyses corroborated this result. At baseline values, survival of adults and juveniles may be the main determinants of growth in these populations, and reproduction may not be adequate to compensate for these losses. Therefore, population growth above baseline levels may be regularly needed to restock these populations. Researchers have hypothesized that population dynamics may differ between mixed mesopytic and oak-dominated sites due to differences in forage quality and quantity. Thus, a potential mechanism for the increases in λ needed to sustain populations on mixed mesophytic forest sites is the greater fecundity observed during years with high oak or beech (Fagus grandifolia) mast abundance. The availability of this high quality forage allows hens to enter the breeding season in better condition and realize higher fertility. Alternatively, on oak-dominated sites, population growth increases may also be a product of higher non-breeding survival of birds in mast years, when birds do not need to range as far to forage and can limit their exposure to predators.     

Hunting habitat selection by hen harriers on moorland: Implications for conservation management

We examine habitat use by hunting hen harriers Circus cyaneus at three study sites in Scotland to evaluate whether foraging patterns differ between sexes, sites, and stages of the breeding period. We modelled time spent hunting in focal plots as a function of habitat and nest proximity. Male hunting intensity (time spent hunting per hour of observation and km²) varied between sites and breeding periods, being lower during the nestling than the incubation period. Habitat use patterns were mostly consistent among study sites, which is important for developing species management recommendations applicable over the species’ range. Males avoided improved grassland, and selected areas of mixed heather and rough grass (with an optimum at ca. 50% heather cover). The effect of nest proximity was small. In contrast, females hunted mainly within 300-500 m of the nest, with a small additive effect of vegetation cover, areas of fragmented heather being preferred. Habitat management to benefit foraging harriers will involve creating (or maintaining) mosaics of heather/grassland around nest areas. Additionally, it might be possible to manipulate habitat to reduce conflict in areas where harrier predation on red grouse is important by segregating areas holding highest grouse densities (with high heather cover) from those favoured for harrier foraging (heather-grass mosaics). However, it would be necessary to test whether these manipulations might also influence harrier nest distribution, an effect which could negate any benefits from this strategy.     

Habitat suitability, threats and conservation of isolated populations of the smooth snake (Coronella austriaca) in the southern Iberian Peninsula

During the Pleistocene, climatic fluctuations due to glacial and interglacial periods greatly modified the distribution of boreal organisms. One direct effect of these distribution shifts is that, along the southern edge of the range of some boreal species, populations persist only in isolated patches of suitable habitats, surrounded by less suitable areas. Isolated populations in marginal habitat are vulnerable to several threats, including climate change, anthropogenic threats, and stochastic events. We developed habitat-suitability models using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis for populations of the smooth snake, Coronella austriaca, at the southernmost limit of the species range. These models were based on historical and current records of occurrence, coupled with remote sensing data including elevation, slope, and climatic variables. Our results indicated that C. austriaca in the Iberian Peninsula occurred in areas associated with high slope and precipitation, low temperatures, and low variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation compared to areas of non-occurrence. At a broad scale, the areas classified as highly suitable for the species in the southern Iberian Peninsula were small and fragmented. At a local scale, extensive field work demonstrated that C. austriaca occurs in low densities in these areas. In addition, we detected several human-induced threats like habitat loss, favoured by temperature increase and rainfall reduction. Several life-history traits, such as dietary specialization and low frequency reproduction, also may contribute to the vulnerability of these populations to local extinctions. Although the most suitable southernmost areas are included in protected reserves, specific guidelines for management are needed to assess conservation needs.     

Adaptive selection of foraging and nesting habitat by black kites (Milvus migrans) and its implications for conservation: a multi-scale approach

Black kites (Milvus migrans) are vulnerable and in decline within Europe. Here, we investigate selection of foraging and breeding habitat in a high-priority population in the Italian pre-Alps. Compared to a random distribution, kites foraged preferentially near water, over extensively managed grassland and within 1 km of nest-sites. Urban areas were positively selected near lakes but otherwise avoided. Foraging performance was higher over water than over terrestrial habitats. Kites nested on cliffs and trees and preferentially near water, far from paths and villages and in rugged and steep micro-sites. Tree-nests were located in the most mature tree in the stand. Productivity was positively related to the availability of water bodies. Therefore, food availability and human disturbance/persecution limited foraging and breeding performance. Guidelines to maintain or enhance current population levels include: (1) setting up reserves covering 10% of the areas within 1 km of large lakes; (2) converting current derelict coppice-woodland to high forest; and (3) enhancing subsidies for extensively managed grassland. Our results highlight the importance of cross-scale models integrating selection of foraging and breeding habitat and reinforce the importance of the spatial configuration of key resources for more realistic conservation management in mosaic landscapes.     

Modelling populations of long-lived birds of prey for conservation: A study of imperial eagles (Aquila heliaca) in Kazakhstan

Eagle populations worldwide are in decline and their demography is generally poorly understood. We use novel sensitivity analysis of stochastic simulation models to analyse the demography of the worlds highest-density and longest-studied population of eastern imperial eagles (Aquila heliaca), at the Naurzum National Nature Reserve in Kazakhstan. Single variable perturbation (a simple elasticity-type analysis) showed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival but provided no information on how interactions between parameters may influence population growth. Multiple-variable perturbations (a more comprehensive elasticity-type analysis) suggested that population growth is relatively more sensitive to adult survival than is indicated by single-variable perturbation but also that when adult survival is within a biologically reasonable range, other parameters are still highly consequential to model outputs. For Naurzum’s imperial eagles, and for other structured populations of vertebrates, effective conservation and management likely requires an approach that addresses the importance of simultaneous variation in multiple vital rates including both survivorship and reproductive output.     

Livestock grazing, plateau pikas and the conservation of avian biodiversity on the Tibetan plateau

On the Qinghai-Tibet plateau increased livestock numbers have resulted in degradation of the grasslands with potential impacts on native biodiversity. Concurrently, perceived increases in populations of native small mammals such as plateau pikas (Ochotona curzoniae) have led to poisoning programs, with uncertain impacts on species such as ground-nesting birds. We explored the relationships between the local seasonal abundance of small birds and (1) the density of pika burrows; (2) livestock grazing practices; and (3) local poisoning of pikas. Around Naqu prefecture, central Tibet, we used a nested experimental design to collect data from areas rested from grazing over summer, nearby areas with year-round grazing and areas subjected to pika poisoning. Additional data were collected from a site where grazing had not occurred for at least 4 years prior to the study. Poisoning pikas in spring had no detectable effect on the local abundance of birds the following autumn. However, two ground-nesting species, white-rumped and rufous-necked snowfinches, showed positive associations with the density of pika burrows, indicating that long-term pika poisoning could reduce the density of these species by reducing the density of pika burrows. Rufous-necked snowfinches and non ground-nesting species including horned larks and common hoopoes showed positive responses to reduced grazing pressure from livestock, particularly in the long-rested site, indicating current grazing levels could be having a negative impact on these species. Conservation of small passerine biodiversity in this system will require changed management practices for livestock and pikas that consider the complex three-way interaction between livestock grazing, pikas and small birds.     

Crofting and bumblebee conservation: The impact of land management practices on bumblebee populations in northwest Scotland

The northwest of Scotland is a stronghold for two of the UK’s rarest bumblebee species, Bombus distinguendus and Bombus muscorum. The predominant form of agricultural land management in this region is crofting, a system specific to Scotland in which small agricultural units (crofts) operate rotational cropping and grazing regimes. Crofting is considered to be beneficial to a wide range of flora and fauna. However, currently there is a lack of quantitative evidence to support this view with regard to bumblebee populations. In this study we assessed the effect of land management on the abundance of foraging bumblebees and the availability of bumblebee forage plants across crofts in northwest Scotland. The results of our study show that current crofting practices do not support high densities of foraging bumblebees. Traditional crofting practice was to move livestock to uplands in the summer, but this has been largely abandoned. Summer sheep grazing of lowland pasture had a strong negative impact on bumblebee abundance and forage plant availability throughout the survey period. The use of specific ‘bird and bee’ conservation seed mixes appears to improve forage availability within the crofted landscape, although the number of bees observed remained low. Of the forage plants available, the three most frequently visited species were from the Fabaceae. We therefore conclude that the creation of agri-environment schemes which promote the use of Fabaceae-rich seed mixes and encourage the removal of sheep grazing on lowland areas throughout the summer are essential in order to conserve bumblebee populations within crofted areas.     

The impact of sett disturbance on badger Meles meles numbers; when does protective legislation work?

Considerable increases in badger Meles meles numbers have been reported from long-term studies on local populations and national surveys in Britain. One theory proposed to explain this population change, is that increased protective legislation has led to reduced levels of persecution, allowing the population to expand. In the present study, we show that the badger population in Northern Ireland has not increased in parallel with the British population, and investigate whether sustained high persecution levels are responsible. As legal protection of badgers in Northern Ireland was not increased at the same time as in Britain, a simultaneous decrease in persecution would not be expected. We test two hypotheses: (i) where there is no change in the level of sett disturbance, the number of social groups will remain unchanged and, (ii) if sett disturbance affects group size, those groups suffering from most disturbance will be smallest. We demonstrate that badger sett disturbance affects both social group size and the number of social groups, thus influencing overall badger density. We also show that high levels of sett disturbance are constraining the growth of the Northern Ireland badger population and discuss what lies behind the apparent failure of the protective legislation in this country.     

The impact of pelagic longline fishing on the flesh-footed shearwater Puffinus carneipes in Eastern Australia

The flesh-footed shearwater (Puffinus carneipes) is a medium-sized seabird (ca. 700 g) that is incidentally killed during longline fishing operations. We examined the levels of bycatch in Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery and developed a model to examine the impact of this fishery on the eastern Australian population of flesh-footed shearwaters, which breeds at only one site, Lord Howe Island. Observed bycatch rates for flesh-footed shearwaters were 0.378 birds/1000 hooks for night sets, and 0.945 birds/1000 hooks for day sets. The mean number of birds killed from 1998 to 2002 was estimated to be 1794-4486 birds per year, with the estimated total killed over this period ranging from 8972 to 18,490 birds. Models incorporating both density-independent and density-dependent scenarios were applied to levels of bycatch representative of that observed in the fishery. Density-independent scenarios showed that fishing mortality levels caused declines in the majority of simulated populations. In contrast, density-dependent scenarios produced populations that were more resilient to fishing mortalities. Although some modelling scenarios led to population growth, under most stochastic simulations median population halving and quasi-extinction times were less than 55 and 120 years, respectively. We conclude that the level of bycatch observed in the fishery is most likely unsustainable and threatens the survival of the Lord Howe Island population. This situation can be improved only with the development and implementation of mitigation measures that will halt or greatly reduce the level of bycatch currently observed. Improved knowledge on a range of demographic parameters for the species, combined with a clearer idea of the at-sea distribution of breeding and non-breeding shearwaters, will greatly assist in improving understanding and the management of this population.     

The proportion of immature breeders as a reliable early warning signal of population decline: evidence from the Spanish imperial eagle in Doñana

Methods to evaluate population trends have recently received particular attention because of perceived declines in several species during the 20th century. We investigated whether age at first breeding could be used as an “early warning signal” to detect possible changes in population trends in long-lived species with deferred maturity using data from the Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) population in Doñana National Park (Spain). This bird of prey is an endangered species that has suffered a rapid decline in this population during the last 10 years. As a result of our 27-year monitoring (1976-2002) study, we detected that an increase in immature breeding birds occurred before population decline became evident. The proportion of immature-plumaged breeders in the population was significantly higher during the period of decline than during the period of stability. In our case, more than 10% of immature breeders can be considered as an “early warning signal” that anticipates population decline. Owing to the ignorance of this warning signal, urgent actions for the recovery of this eagle population started 10 years later than necessary, and when population size had been reduced.