Photosynthetic characteristics of Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur established for stand conversion from Picea abies

Efforts in Europe to convert Norway spruce (Picea abies) plantations to broadleaf or mixed broadleaf-conifer forests could be bolstered by an increased understanding of how artificial regeneration acclimates and functions under a range of Norway spruce stand conditions. We studied foliage characteristics and leaf-level photosynthesis on 7-year-old European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) regeneration established in open patches and shelterwoods of a partially harvested Norway spruce plantation in southwestern Sweden. Both species exhibited morphological plasticity at the leaf level by developing leaf blades in patches with an average mass per unit area (LMA) 54% greater than of those in shelterwoods, and at the plant level by maintaining a leaf area ratio (LAR) in shelterwoods that was 78% greater than in patches. However, we observed interspecific differences in photosynthetic capacity relative to spruce canopy openness. Photosynthetic capacity (A₁₆₀₀, net photosynthesis at a photosynthetic photon flux density of 1600 μmol photons m⁻² s⁻¹) of beech in respect to the canopy gradient was best related to leaf mass, and declined substantially with increasing canopy openness primarily because leaf nitrogen (N) in this species decreased about 0.9 mg g⁻¹ with each 10% rise in canopy openness. In contrast, A₁₆₀₀ of oak showed a weak response to mass-based N, and furthermore the percentage of N remained constant in oak leaf tissues across the canopy gradient. Therefore, oak photosynthetic capacity along the canopy gradient was best related to leaf area, and increased as the spruce canopy thinned primarily because LMA rose 8.6 g m⁻² for each 10% increase in canopy openness. These findings support the premise that spruce stand structure regulates photosynthetic capacity of beech through processes that determine N status of this species; leaf N (mass basis) was greatest under relatively closed spruce canopies where leaves apparently acclimate by enhancing light harvesting mechanisms. Spruce stand structure regulates photosynthetic capacity of oak through processes that control LMA; LMA was greatest under open spruce canopies of high light availability where leaves apparently acclimate by enhancing CO₂ fixation mechanisms.     

Spatiotemporal dynamic of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Slovenia, 1970–2005

Based on data acquired from the spatial information system Silva-SI, the majority of the entire forest area in Slovenia (22,220 forest compartments with a total area of 7446 km², classified into eight forest categories) was analysed for changes in the distribution of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the period 1975–2005 using a binary logistic regression model in terms of selected site, stand and management variables. Additionally, changes in the abundance of beech in forest stands in which beech was present at the beginning and the end of the analysed period were analysed. Beech expanded its area by more than 1200 ha per year on average, i.e. the annual expansion rate amounted to 0.24%. Among the 18 studied variables, three site, four stand and no management variables were included in the binary logistic regression model of beech expansion. Beech expansion was more pronounced at lower altitudes, on sites with steep topography, and on sites with a higher proportion of beech in potential natural vegetation. The probability of beech expansion reduced by a factor of 0.54 when the distance to the nearest compartment with beech increased by 1 km. Among other stand variables, the proportion of early successional phases and the proportion of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) also influenced the expansion of beech. During the observed period the growing stock of beech almost doubled, its proportion in total growing stock increasing from 27% to 32%. Significant differences were found in changes of beech proportion in the total growing stock among different forest categories; a decrease in the beech proportion was registered in alpine coniferous forests and thermophilous deciduous forests, while in other forest categories the proportion of beech increased. The recent development of forest stands and their current structure indicate a further expansion of beech and an increase in the proportion of beech in forest stands.     

The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: An individual tree growth model

In the climate change discussion, the possibility of carbon sequestration of forests plays an important role. Therefore, research on the effects of environmental changes on net primary productivity is interesting. In this study we investigated the influence of changing temperature, precipitation and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen compounds on forest growth. The database consisted of 654 plots of the European intensive monitoring program (Level II plots) with 5-year growth data for the period 1994–1999. Among these 654 plots only 382 plots in 18 European countries met the requirements necessary to be used in our analysis. Our analysis was done for common beech (Fagus sylvatica), oak (Quercus petraea and Q. robur), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). We developed an individual tree growth model with measured basal area increment of each individual tree as responding growth factor and tree size (diameter at breast height), tree competition (basal area of larger trees and stand density index), site factors (soil C/N ratio, temperature), and environmental factors (temperature change compared to long-term average, nitrogen and sulphur deposition) as influencing parameters. Using a mixed model approach, all models for the tree species show a high goodness of fit with Pseudo-R² between 0.33 and 0.44. Diameter at breast height and basal area of larger trees were highly influential variables in all models. Increasing temperature shows a positive effect on growth for all species except Norway spruce. Nitrogen deposition shows a positive impact on growth for all four species. This influence was significant with p < 0.05 for all species except common beech. For beech the effect was nearly significant (p = 0.077). An increase of 1 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ corresponds to an increase in basal area increment between 1.20% and 1.49% depending on species. Considering an average total carbon uptake for European forests near 1730 kg per hectare and year, this implies an estimated sequestration of approximately 21–26 kg carbon per kg nitrogen deposition.     

Regeneration growth in different light environments of mixed species, multiaged, mountainous forests of Romania

Growth of regenerating trees in different light environments was studied for the mountainous, mixed-species forests in the Carpathian Mountains of Romania. The primary species in these mixtures were silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst). Seedlings/saplings of these species were selected and measured in different stands from two different geographical locations. Regenerating trees were measured for height and diameter growth during the summer of 2002. For each seedling/sapling, percentage of above canopy light (PACL) and stand basal area (BA) were used to assess available and occupied growing space respectively. Regeneration growth was compared against these two variables and regression relationships were developed. Using these models, we predicted the dynamics of regeneration as both growth and species composition. Our results showed that in low-light environments (PACL<20–35%; BA>30 m²/ha), shade tolerant fir and beech clearly outcompeted the spruce. Therefore, in dense stands, spruce could be eliminated by the shade tolerant species. For intermediate levels of cover (PACL=35–70%; BA=15–35 m²/ha) the spruce grew at comparable rates as the beech and fir. All three species showed similar growth rates in open conditions (PACL>80–90%; BA<15–20 m²/ha) with the spruce having a tendency to outgrow the others. However, in terms of establishment, such conditions favor spruce and inhibit fir and beech.     

A comparison of litterfall and element fluxes in even aged Norway spruce,sitka spruce and beech stands in Denmark

Litterfall was investigated in three even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies), sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) stands on a nutrient poor-soil in Southern Denmark. Dry weights and N, P, K, S, Mg, Ca, Na, Al, and Fe concentrations and fluxes were examined in litterfall fractions. Foliage litter amounted to 90% of total litterfall. The tree stands showed a similar mean annual litterfall. In the spruce stands, annual litterfall was correlated negatively with the current year increment and positively with the previous year increment. Annual litterfall in beech was constant during the 6 study years whereas Norway spruce and sitka spruce showed large fluctuations between years caused by drought, spruce aphid infestations and probably sea salt stress. Norway spruce responded with a long lasting elevated needle loss. Sitka spruce responded to infestations with premature needle loss during short periods. The presence of a large syrphid (Coccinellidae) population was important in regulating aphid (Elatobium abietinum) population density. The between-year variation in element concentrations of litterfall was small whereas variations during the year were large. Interspecific levels were recognized: Norway spruce>beech>sitka spruce. High concentrations in Norway spruce were ascribed to a combination of drought, sea salt stress and elevated transpiration. In sitka spruce, aphid infestations reduced the litterfall N content. Sitka spruce showed the smallest amount of base cation fluxes with litterfall. In contrast, spruce and beech exhibited even litterfall element fluxes. Litterfall studies revealed reduced vitality in the non-native spruce stands and underlined the perception of a healthy stand of native beech.     

Mixed forests and a flexible harvest policy: a problem for conventional risk analysis?

The famous “Faustmann” equation, which allows for identifying the most profitable tree species on a given unstocked piece of land, assumes constant timber prices. In reality, timber prices may fluctuate dramatically. Several authors have proven for monocultures that waiting for an acceptable timber price (reservation price) before harvesting (flexible harvest policy) increases the net present value of forest management. The first part of this paper investigates how efficient a flexible harvest strategy may be applied in mixed forests and whether the optimal species mixture is changed under such harvest policy. Mixtures of the conifer Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst] and the broadleaf European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) were investigated. In order to evaluate mixed forests, the risks and the correlation of risks between tree species as well as the attitude towards risk of the decision-maker (risk-aversion is assumed) were considered according to the classical theory of optimal portfolio selection. In the second part we took up a recent critique on modern financial theory by Mandelbrot. Whether or not the assumption of normally distributed financial flows, which are supposed to occur under risk, would be appropriate to evaluate the risk of forest management was investigated. Market and hazard risks as well as their correlation were integrated in the evaluation of mixed forests by means of Monte-Carlo simulations (MCS). The risk of the timber price fluctuation was combined with the natural hazard risk, caused mainly by insects, snow and wind. Applying the μ-σ-rule, the mean net present value (NPV) from 1,000 simulations and their standard deviation were used for the optimisation. Given a low-return, risk-free interest rate to assess potential species mixtures of the Norway spruce and European beech, optimal proportions of European beech increased according to the theory of optimum portfolio selection with growing risk aversion from 0 (ignorance of risk) to 60% (great risk-aversion). In relation to a fixed harvest policy, the net present value of both, Norway spruce and European beech, could be increased significantly. Since the hazard risks of European beech were substantially lower compared with the Norway spruce (relation of susceptibility 1:4) beech benefited more from the flexible harvest policy. A comparison of simulated frequency distributions of the NPV with the expected density functions under the assumption of a normal distribution revealed significant differences. Only in the case of European beech was the general shape of the simulated frequency distribution similar to a normal distribution (bell-shaped curve). However, the density of NPV close to the mean was much greater than expected under the assumption of a normal distribution. Consequently, the frequency of a negative NPV for a European beech forest was greatly overestimated when applying the normal distribution. Though the shape of the simulated frequency distribution was rather different from a normal distribution for Norway spruce the simulated part of negative NPV was quite well approximated by the normal distribution. Therefore the simulated and expected frequencies of negative NPV were similar in case of Norway spruce; only a slight underestimation was seen in the assumption of a normal distribution. It can be concluded that actually simulated frequencies of negative NPV seem to be better measures for risk than computed probabilities of negative NPV, which assume normal distribution. As the risk for European beech was greatly overestimated by the conventional assumption of a normal distribution, the optimal proportions of European beech were surely rather underestimated according to the theory of portfolio. MCS on optimum mixtures derived by the classical portfolio theory seems necessary to test the robustness of such mixtures.

Long-term dynamics of a mixed conifer stand in Slovenia managed with a farmer selection system

The single-tree selection system is an important option for management of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) forests because it provides continuous cover, requires low investments for tending, and promotes natural regeneration as well as high stand resistance and elasticity. It is often regarded as a very conservative system that usually results in only minor spatiotemporal changes in forest structure and composition. We studied management history, structural changes, regeneration dynamics, and light climate of a traditional single-tree farmer selection silver fir-Norway spruce forest (site typology Bazzanio-Abietetum). Stand structure was analyzed on five 0.25 ha permanent plots in 1994, 2001, and 2008. Regeneration density and height growth, forest floor vegetation, and light climate were also assessed on 1.5 × 1.5 m regeneration subplots in 2001 and 2008. Tree cores extracted from dominant trees from both species in two plots were used for reconstructing stand history and age structure of the canopy layer. We documented the forest response to three types of selection management regimes: excessive, normal, and conservative. Excessive management with harvest intensity significantly above the increment was documented until the late 1950s, including two peaks of heavy fellings (diameter limit cut) in the 1880s and 1930s, which favoured establishment of Norway spruce and released regeneration. The period that followed was characterized by normal selection management, but was nevertheless marked by a decline of silver fir as a result of air pollution and several droughts. This led to sanitary fellings that were carried out from the late 1970s to the early 1990s. In the last two decades conservative management followed, which led to suppression and decline of regeneration, especially of Norway spruce, and loss of selection structure. Although we recorded lower regeneration potential of silver fir compared with Norway spruce within the seedling category, silver fir outcompeted Norway spruce within the small-sized tree category (1 cm < dbh ? 10 cm) because of its superior height growth in low light levels (diffuse light <6%) and occupied a greater share of the canopy. Nevertheless, we anticipate that over the long-term the low light regime will also cause regeneration decline of silver fir and broadleaves. Our research revealed significant structural changes in a single-tree farmer selection forest during the last 150 years. These were a result of variable management regime and environment. A farmer single-tree selection system could better mimic the natural disturbance regime if spatiotemporal combinations of diverse felling regimes would be used.     

Automatic recognition and measurement of single trees based on data from airborne laser scanning over the richly structured natural forests of the Bavarian Forest National Park

The purpose of this study was to test a method for delineating individual tree crowns based on a fully automated recognition methodology. The study material included small-footprint time-of-flight laser scanner data acquired in the spring and summer of 2002. The data were collected with a Toposys II airborne laser system flown over the Norway spruce (Picea abies) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominated forests of the Bavarian Forest National Park, Germany. The applied algorithm, which earlier had been validated for Swedish forest conditions, is a watershed algorithm that is based on the use of laser scanning data. 2584 trees in a total of 28 representative reference stands, each 0.1–0.25 ha in area, were included in the investigation. With the algorithm, 76.9% of the trees in the upper layer could be recognised. This corresponds to 85.2% of the timber volume determined by ground measurements. The results for conifers were more accurate in this respect than for deciduous trees. A negative aspect was the number of falsely identified trees, the percentage of which was 5.4%.     

Canopy gaps and regeneration in old-growth Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky) stands, northern Iran

Virgin beech Fagus orientalis forests in northern Iran provide a unique opportunity to study the disturbance regimes of forest ecosystems without human influence. The aim of this research was to describe characteristics of natural canopy gaps and gap area fraction as an environmental influence on the success of beech seedling establishment in mature beech stands. All canopy gaps and related forest parameters were measured within three 25 ha areas within the Gorazbon compartment of the University of Tehran’s Kheyrud Experimental Forest. An average of 3 gaps/ha occurred in the forest and gap sizes ranged from 19 to 1250 m² in size. The most frequent (58%) canopy gaps were <200 m². In total, canopy gaps covered 9.3% of the forest area. Gaps <400 m² in size were irregular in shape, but larger gaps did not differ significantly in shape from a circle. Most gaps (41%) were formed by a single tree-fall event and beech made up 63% of gap makers and 93% of gap fillers. Frequency and diversity of tree seedlings were not significantly correlated with gap size. The minimum gap size that contained at least one beech gap-filling sapling (<1.3 m tall) was 23.7 m². The median gap size containing at least one beech gap-filling sapling was 206 m² and the maximum size was 1808 m². The management implications from our study suggest that the creation of small and medium sized gaps in mixed beech forest should mimic natural disturbance regimes and provide suitable conditions for successful beech regeneration.     

An integrated spatial assessment of the investment potential of three species in southern Ontario, Canada inclusive of carbon benefits

This study explores the economic feasibility of several long-rotation afforestation scenarios for southern Ontario, Canada. Three species, red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.), Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) and black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) are examined. We integrate growth and yield models, site suitability maps, and several management scenarios to investigate the investment attractiveness of these species inclusive and exclusive of carbon sequestration values. We report net present values (NPV), internal rates of return (IRR) and two break-even price metrics. For wood value only scenarios the IRRs range from 4.3 to 4.6% for red pine and 3.4–3.6% for Norway spruce (for the most attractive 10,000 ha, in a single rotation scenario). Black walnut had rates of return 3.5–3.7% for the most attractive 10,000 ha area. Adding carbon valued at Cdn $3.4 per metric ton CO_2 − e (roughly 2005 prices in the Chicago Climate Exchange) increases rates of return by about 0.6% for red pine and Norway spruce and 0.4% for black walnut scenarios. Perhaps surprisingly these returns are comparable and better than 20-year rotation hybrid poplar plantations. To achieve a 6% real rate of return break-even carbon prices were $10.7/t CO_2 − e for red pine, $12.6/t CO_2 − e for Norway spruce and $17.2/t CO_2 − e for black walnut (again for the “best” 10,000 ha). Although somewhat unremarkable, the results suggest that these longer-rotation species may be a better investment than perhaps previously expected if landowners have the appropriate site conditions.     

Dynamics of seedling establishment and survival in uneven-aged boreal forests

The aim of this study was to describe the dynamics of seedling establishment and development in spruce-dominated uneven-aged boreal forests. The study was based on empirical data from 15 stands with permanent plots, which had been intensively monitored for 10 years in southern Finland. All trees (height > 1.3 m) were measured every fifth year. Regeneration was measured on 64 permanent sample plots (4 m²) in each stand. The establishment of first-year seedlings was analysed on a yearly basis. The survival and development of older Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) seedlings were analysed based on observations made every five years. The establishment of spruce seedlings was closely correlated with the abundance of seed crops. Seedling cohorts originating from abundant seed crops were clearly detectable in the development of seedling height distributions over time. It took about 15 years for spruce seedlings to reach a height level of 15-30 cm. Local basal area had hardly any effect on the emergence or survival of small spruce seedlings, while the number of higher spruce seedlings decreased with increasing local basal area.     

Climate-sensitive modelling of site-productivity relationships for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

The aim of the presented research project is to fit a site index model capable for predicting changes in site-productivity in a changing climate. A generalized additive model is used to predict site index as a function of soil and climate variables. The climate parameter values are estimated using the regional climate model WETTREG, based on global climate simulations with the global circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM for the reference period from 1961 to 1990. The climate values are further regionalized on a 200 m × 200 m grid. The generalized additive model quantifies the partial linear and non-linear effects of the predictor variables on site index. The model is parameterized for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Lower Saxony, Germany. Two case studies investigate the model's ability to generate information in order to support forest management planning decisions under a changing climate. One example analyzes the possible shift in site index of spruce along a precipitation gradient under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario A1B in the period from 2041 to 2050. The other case study shows possible future changes in site index of beech along a temperature gradient.     

Spatial and temporal patterns in seed predation as revealed by reciprocal experiments and video surveillance in neighbouring beech and spruce forests

European beech and Norway spruce are late successional and competitive species meeting each other in southern Norway. Beech is predicted to expand northwards with increased temperature, implying increased competition between the two tree species. Seed survival is a key process in this competition and here we estimate detection times and predation rates of beech and spruce seeds in adjacent beech and spruce forests by combining quantitative and qualitative approaches based on reciprocal seed predation experiments and video surveillance. These experiments were repeated over two growing seasons, and by using a video-surveillance technique, we were able to precisely reveal seed detection times and high seed predation rates, up to 15 seeds?min^?1, with bank vole and chaffinch as main predators. Moreover, the two main predators were different in their seed preferences, that is, beech seeds were exclusively removed or predated by the vole, while the finch consumed spruce seeds only. As we show high predation rates, even small variations in seed predator population densities would impact the regeneration success of beech and spruce. Because the highest predation rates were recorded for spruce seeds, it is likely that this will alter the competitive balance between the two tree species in favour of beech.     

Biomass conversion factors (density and carbon concentration) by decay classes for dead wood of Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Betula spp. in boreal forests of Sweden

For estimating the amount of carbon (C) in dead wood, conversion factors from raw volume per decay class to dry weight were developed using three different classification systems for the species Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and birch (Betula pendula Roth and B. pubescens Ehrh) in Sweden. Also the C concentration in dead wood (dry weight) was studied. About 2500 discs were collected from logs in managed forests located on 289 temporary National Forest Inventory (NFI) sample plots and in 11 strips located in preserved forests. The conversion factors were based on an extensive data compilation with a wide representation of different site-, stand-, species- and dead wood properties and were assumed to represent the population of fallen dead wood in Sweden. The density decreased significantly by decay class and the range in density for decay classes was widest for the NFI decay classification system, suggesting this to be the most suitable. The C concentration in dead wood biomass increased with increasing decay class and in average Norway spruce (P. abies) showed a lower C concentration than Scots pine (P. sylvestris). The average dead wood C store of Swedish forests was estimated to 0.85 Mg C/ha.     

Variation in leaf nitrogen and phosphorus stoichiometry in Picea abies across Europe: An analysis based on local observations

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and N:P ratio in terrestrial plants and the patterns at a large geographical scale are an important issue in ecological stoichiometry. In particular, it is essential to know that for a single species, how the N:P stoichiometry varies with climatic factors in the context of global warming. Our analysis was based on a data set including 2583 observations at 441 sites on nutritional status of Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) located in European counties (including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Rep., Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Norway, Slovak Rep., Slovenia, United Kingdom). Our objectives are to demonstrate how leaf N and P concentration and N:P ratio in Norway spruce vary with altitude (ALT), latitude (LAT), longitude (LON), mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) across Europe. The results showed that for 1-year-old needles of Norway spruce, the N and P concentration were 13.28 mg g⁻¹, 1.41 mg g⁻¹ and the N:P ratio was 9.76. Leaf N displayed a convex curve pattern with increasing MAT and decreasing LAT from the boreal Europe to the Mediterranean area. The N concentration and N:P generally reached peak at about 7 °C in MAT or 53° N in LAT. The N:P ratio varied non-linearly with LAT and MAP, but linearly with MAT. Leaf N concentration and N:P ratio decreased linearly with increasing ALT in temperate European area. Across Europe, that the patterns of leaf N and N:P ratio were mainly driven by climate-related geochemistry and plant physiology, but also greatly impacted by anthropogenic N deposition.     

Wind disturbances shape old Norway spruce-dominated forest in Bulgaria

Correct knowledge of disturbance ecology is essential for understanding the characteristic behavior of forest ecosystems and for guiding appropriate management strategies. However, the role of natural disturbances in shaping European mountain forest ecosystems has not been adequately studied, possibly because of the perception that the development of most European forests is primarily shaped by human influences and/or fine-scale gap-phase dynamics.In the present study, we investigate the long-term disturbance history of old protected forest dominated by Norway spruce in the Parangalitsa Reserve, Bulgaria. We used aerial photo interpretation and dendroecological methods to reconstruct the history of wind, insect, and fire disturbances across a topographically complex landscape. Over the past 150 years wind has been the most important disturbance agent in this ecosystem and at least 18% of the forested area shows evidence of high-severity blowdowns. Windthrow patches ranged in size from <1 ha to >10 ha (minimum 0.11 ha, mean 0.16 ha, maximum 10 ha). Although small disturbances were much more frequent, few larger blowdowns accounted for most of the disturbed area. Pure coniferous and single-cohort coniferous forest patches were more affected by blowdowns than mixed coniferous-deciduous and multi-cohort coniferous forest patches. Although bark beetle (Ips typhographus) populations were large enough to cause mortality of some live trees, the populations did not grow to epidemic proportions during recent decades. Fire disturbance was of limited importance in the last 200 years and only two patches (4% of the study area) showed evidence of fire.The present research indicates that wind disturbances have been characteristic of these ecosystems at least over the past decades to centuries. Thus, blowdowns appear integral to the normal function and structure of the Picea-dominated mountain forests in the region and such events, in and of themselves, do not represent unhealthy forest conditions or environmental emergencies. Management strategies that aim to maintain these ecosystems within a natural range of variation should incorporate wind disturbances into the management strategy. The frequency and magnitude of future wind disturbances may be considered within the historical framework described in the current study to assess potential effects of climate change on altered disturbance regimes.     

Economics of species change subject to risk of climate change and increasing information: a (quasi-)option value analysis

Context

In the context of climate change, several forest adaptation options have to be advocated such as a shift to more resistant species.

Aims

We provide an economic analysis of timber species change as a tool for adapting forests to climate change.

Methods

We use the framework of cost–benefit analysis, taking uncertainty into account both exogenously (sensitivity analysis) and endogenously [(quasi-)option value calculations]. We apply the method to assess the economic rationale for converting Norway spruce stands to Douglas-fir in the French Black Mountain.

Results

We find that the Douglas-fir conversion is land expectation value (LEV) maximizing under a wide range of a priori (subjective) probabilities attached to high mortality of Norway spruce under climate change (for probabilities higher than 0.25–0.31). If information about the impacts of climate change is expected to increase over time, and given the large sunk costs attached to conversion, a delay strategy may be preferable to transition and to status quo when the impacts of climate change on Norway spruce mortality are sufficiently ambiguous. In such cases, getting information earlier increases the LEV by €5–60/ha.

Conclusion

Beyond the specifics of the case study, this paper suggests that quasi-option value is a relevant tool to provide insights to forest owners dealing with adaptation decisions in the context of climate change.     

Forest fire effects in beech dominated mountain forest of Iran

Most of world's forests of different climates have a history of fire, but with different severities. Fire regimes for broadleaf deciduous forests have return intervals that vary from many decades (or less) to centuries (or more). Iran has a total of 1.2 million ha of temperate forest in the north, where fires burn about 300–400 ha annually. This study focused on the impact of fire on forest structure, tree species quality, and regeneration composition (specially beech) in the Chelir forest of northern Iran. The results showed that forest fires changed the structure and had different effects on tree species composition between burned and control areas. Thin barked species such as oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky) and coliseum maple (Acer cappadocicum Gled.) have been affected more than those with thick bark, like hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.) and chestnut-leaved oak (Quercus castaneifolia C.A. Mey). The density of oriental beech regeneration in the unburned area was greater than in the burned area, while the quantity of regeneration of hornbeam, coliseum maple and velvet maple (Acer velutinum Boiss) was higher in burned area. Forest fire had a greater effect on oriental beech quality, and changed regeneration composition in the burned area. Fire prevention activities should be considered as a silvicultural treatment for preserving these valuable forests.