Forested land-cover patterns and trends over changing forest management eras in the Siberian Baikal region

Remote sensing observations over areas of the former Soviet Union suggest that there may be important ongoing influences on forested landscapes resulting from divergent land use and forest management associated with the Soviet versus post-Soviet eras. As the Russian Federation implements its new Forest Code and associated regulations, knowledge of existing forest patterns and trends, plus the development of methods with which to understand the landscape-level influence of different forest management strategies is increasingly important. We developed spatial–temporal models and projections of forest patterns and trends over Soviet and early post-Soviet forest management eras for a study site in the Lake Baikal region in southern Siberia. We used Landsat-derived land-cover data, logistic regressions, and Markov and cellular automata methods (CA–Markov) to characterize patterns and trends 1975–1989 and 1990–2001, and to develop predictive scenarios through 2013. Relationships of forest types (Conifer, Mixed, Deciduous) and Agriculture to other explanatory environmental variables indicated mostly consistent forest–environment relationships, but some different spatial relationships between eras were found for Cut and Regeneration disturbance types. Landscape proportional trends showed greater differences between eras. Cut proportions observed via Landsat in 2001 were approximately 74% lower, and the area of Conifer observed was approximately 14% higher, than modeled proportions predicted for 2001 using 1975–1989 Soviet era transition rates. The proportion of Cut projected for 2013 was about 80% lower when based on early post-Soviet era probabilities. Overall, modeled results indicate that should early post-Soviet trends continue, low rates of logging, some agricultural abandonment, re-growing forests especially near access routes, increases in deciduous cover, along with continued or increased fire events in mixed and conifer forests will define the landscape. Should forest management change, for example to Soviet era rates and patterns of harvest, different outcomes are projected. More broadly, results highlight the real and prospective effects that divergent management strategies can have on forested landscapes, and demonstrate that land-cover data combined with emerging spatial–temporal modeling methods provide an approach to understand and project the complex and ongoing influences associated with changing forest management at landscape scales.     

Impacts of climate change on timber production and regional risks of wind-induced damage to forests in Finland

In this work, we studied the impacts of climate change on timber production and regional risks of wind-induced damage to forests in Finland. The work employed: (i) national level forest inventory data, (ii) current baseline climate (1961–1990) and changing climate scenario (FINADAPT A2, 2001–2099), (iii) a forest ecosystem model (SIMA), (iv) a mechanistic wind damage model (HWIND), and (v) currently applied forest management recommendations as a baseline. The results showed that the timber production will increase significantly towards the end of this century under the changing climate, and in a relative sense the most in Northern Finland. At the same time, the share of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) is expected to decrease, especially in southernmost Finland, mainly favoring the presence of birch (Betula spp.), but also Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), when no species preference is given in management. As a result, the proportion of forest area in the two lowest critical wind speed classes (i.e. winds of 11–14 and 14–17 m s⁻¹) will decrease in the autumn (birch without leaves) throughout Finland. However, in summertime (birch is in leaf) the proportion of forest area with such critical wind speeds will even increase in southernmost Finland. Even though, in summertime the risk of damage should be on average relatively low throughout Finland due to a lower occurrence of such wind speeds compared to the windiest time of the year (i.e. from autumn to early spring). The return period of critical wind speeds of 11–17 m s⁻¹ is today about every two years in southernmost Finland. In Northern Finland, the critical wind speeds needed for wind damage are, on average, higher due to the larger share of Scots pine and on average lower height to breast height diameter ratios of trees compared to the south. To conclude, the climate change will affect clearly the forest growth and dynamics and, thus increase the need to manage forests more often and/or heavily (e.g. thinning, final felling), which in addition to species preference, will affect the risks of damages. The consideration of the risk of wind damage is crucial especially in Southern Finland when adapting forest management to the changing climate. This is because the unfrozen soil period is expected to increase significantly in Finland, which decreases tree anchorage during the windiest time of year.     

A century of logging and forestry in a reindeer herding area in northern Sweden

Boreal forest ecosystems are generally highly sensitive to logging and other forestry activities. Thus, commercial forestry has had major effects on the forests and landscape structure in northern Sweden since the middle of the 19th Century, when it rapidly extended across the region. Lichens (which constitute up to 80% of reindeer forage in winter and early spring) have often been amongst the most severely affected ecosystem components. The overall aim of the present study was to analyze how forestry has influenced the potential supply of ground-growing lichens as winter forage for the reindeer in this region over the past ca. 100 years. For this purpose, we analysed changes in forest and stand structure in Scots pine-dominated (Pinus sylvestris L.) reindeer wintering areas in the southern part of the county Norrbotten (covering ca. 58,000 ha) using detailed historical forest inventories and management plans. We found that the amount of the forest types considered potentially good pasture (mainly middle-aged and old pine forests) decreased during the first part of the 20th Century. However, the quality of grazing grounds was improved by forestry during this time mainly because selective logging made the forests more open which benefits lichen growth. During the last part of the 20th century forestry impaired the quality of grazing grounds in several ways, e.g. by clear-cutting and intensified use of various silvicultural measures. We conclude that ca. 30–50% of the winter grazing grounds have been lost in the study area because of intensive forest management during the last century. The spatially precise historical information about the affects of forestry on lichen pasture provided in this study can be used to direct forest management which will facilitate and promote reindeer herding in the future.     

Influence of climate change,fire and harvest on the carbon dynamics of black spruce in Central Canada

The results of EFIMOD simulations for black spruce (Picea mariana [Miller]) forests in Central Canada show that climate warming, fire, harvesting and insects significantly influence net primary productivity (NPP), soil respiration (Rs), net ecosystem production (NEP) and pools of tree biomass and soil organic matter (SOM). The effects of six climate change scenarios demonstrated similar increasing trends of NPP and stand productivity. The disturbances led to a strong decrease in NPP, stand productivity, soil organic matter (SOM) and nitrogen (N) pools with an increase in CO₂ emission to the atmosphere. However the accumulated NEP for 150 years under harvest and fire fluctuated around zero. It becames negative only at a more frequent disturbance regime with four forest fires during the period of simulation. The results from this study show that changes in climate and disturbance regimes might substantially change the NPP as well as the C and N balance, resulting in major changes in the C pools of the vegetation and soil under black spruce forests.     

Replacing coniferous monocultures with mixed-species production stands: An assessment of the potential benefits for forest biodiversity in northern Europe

Conifer dominated plantations in central and northern Europe are associated with relatively low ecological values, and in some cases, may be vulnerable to disturbances caused by anthropogenic climate change. This has prompted the consideration of alternative tree species compositions for use in production forestry in this region. Here we evaluate the likely biodiversity costs and benefits of supplanting Norway spruce (Picea abies) monocultures with polycultures of spruce and birch (Betula spp.) in southern Sweden. This polyculture alternative has previously been evaluated in terms of economic, recreational, and silvicultural benefits. By also assessing the ecological implications we fill a gap in our understanding of the range of socio-ecological benefits that can be achieved from a single polyculture alternative. We project likely broad scale changes to species richness and abundance within production stands for five taxonomic groups including ground vegetation, tree-living bryophytes, lichens, saproxylic beetles, and birds. Our research leads us to three key findings. First, the replacement of spruce monocultures with spruce–birch polycultures in the managed forest landscapes of southern Sweden can be expected to result in an increase in biological diversity for most but not all taxa assessed, but it is unlikely to improve conditions for many red-listed forest species. Second, modification of other aspects of forest management (i.e. rotation length, dead wood and green tree retention, thinning regimes) is likely to contribute to further biodiversity gains using spruce–birch polycultures than spruce monocultures. Third, the paucity of empirical research which directly compares the biodiversity of different types of managed production stands, limits the extent to which policy relevant conclusions can be extracted from the scientific literature. We discuss the wider implications of our findings, which indicate that some climate change adaptation strategies, such as risk-spreading, can be readily integrated with the economic, environmental and social goals of multi-use forestry.     

Simulating restoration strategies for a southern boreal forest landscape with complex land ownership patterns

Restoring altered forest landscapes toward their ranges of natural variability (RNV) may enhance ecosystem sustainability and resiliency, but such efforts can be hampered by complex land ownership and management patterns. We evaluated restoration potential for southern-boreal forests in the ∼2.1 million ha Border Lakes Region of northern Minnesota (U.S.A.) and Ontario (Canada), where spatially distinct timber harvest and fire suppression histories have differentially altered forest conditions (composition, age–class distribution, and landscape structure) among major management areas, effectively resulting in forest landscape “bifurcation.” We used a forest landscape simulation model to evaluate potential for four hypothetical management and two natural disturbance scenarios to restore forest conditions and reduce bifurcation, including: (1) a current management scenario that simulated timber harvest and fire suppression practices among major landowners; (2) three restoration scenarios that simulated combinations of wildland fire use and cross-boundary timber harvest designed to emulate natural disturbance patterns; (3) a historical natural disturbance scenario that simulated pre-EuroAmerican settlement fire regimes and windthrow; and (4) a contemporary fire regime that simulated fire suppression, but no timber harvest. Forest composition and landscape structure for a 200-year model period were compared among scenarios, among major land management regions within scenarios, and to six RNV benchmarks. The current management scenario met only one RNV benchmark and did not move forest composition, age–class distribution, or landscape structures toward the RNV, and it increased forest landscape bifurcation between primarily timber-managed and wilderness areas. The historical natural disturbance scenario met five RNV benchmarks and the restoration scenarios as many as five, by generally restoring forest composition, age–class distributions, and landscape structures, and reducing bifurcation of forest conditions. The contemporary natural disturbance scenario met only one benchmark and generally created a forest landscape dominated by large patches of late-successional, fire-prone forests. Some forest types (e.g., white and red pine) declined in all scenarios, despite simulated restoration strategies. It may not be possible to achieve all objectives under a single management scenario, and complications, such as fire-risk, may limit strategies. However, our model suggests that timber harvest and fire regimes that emulate natural disturbance patterns can move forest landscapes toward the RNV.     

Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama,USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.     

Climate change and nature conservation in Central European forests: A review of consequences, concepts and challenges

With a predicted rise in average global surface temperature at an unprecedented rate, as well as changes in precipitation and disturbance regimes, climate change will bring forth new challenges for nature conservation in forest ecosystems. Species and habitats to be protected will be affected as well as related concepts and area specific objectives. Climate change impacts are likely to be aggravated by other anthropogenic stresses such as fragmentation, deposition or habitat destruction. To be reliable and effective, current objectives and guidelines of forest conservation need to be reassessed and improved. Our study analyses possible impacts of climate change on forests and identifies key future challenges for nature conservation in forests and ecosystem research. We reviewed 130 papers on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems and species published between 1995 and 2010. The geographical focus of the study is Central Europe. Papers were analysed accounting for direct and indirect impacts of gradual changes as well as stochastic disturbance events in forest ecosystems and their possible consequences for nature conservation.Even though broader aspects of nature conservation (protected areas, biodiversity) are frequently mentioned, little attention is given to forest-specific nature conservation. Particular aspects are insufficiently represented, such as the influence of climate change on different forest succession stages, the development of dead wood volume and quality, responses of secondary broadleaved species, azonal or extrazonal forests as well as ancient woodlands or remnants of historical silvicultural systems. Challenges arise in the context of great uncertainties about future developments. Nature conservation concepts and objectives in forests need to be adapted either within a permanent evaluation process or through the inclusion of further changes a priori, even if they are to some extent unpredictable. In some cases adaptation measures within nature conservation (e.g. adjusting protected areas) may conflict with interests of other stakeholders. Further research, particularly on interrelations between different impacts and the adaptive capacity of current forest ecosystems, associated species and existing genotypes is urgently needed. The scale and complexity of the task at hand calls for the establishment and further strengthening of international research networks.     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

Impact of bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) disturbance on timber production and carbon sequestration in different management strategies under climate change

The likely environmental changes throughout the next century have the potential to strongly alter forest disturbance regimes which may heavily affect forest functions as well as forest management. Forest stands already poorly adapted to current environmental conditions, such as secondary Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests outside their natural range, are expected to be particularly prone to such risks. By means of a simulation study, a secondary Norway spruce forest management unit in Austria was studied under conditions of climatic change with regard to effects of bark beetle disturbance on timber production and carbon sequestration over a time period of 100 years. The modified patch model PICUS v1.41, including a submodule of bark beetle-induced tree mortality, was employed to assess four alternative management strategies: (a) Norway spruce age-class forestry, (b) Norway spruce continuous cover forestry, (c) conversion to mixed species stands, and (d) no management. Two sets of simulations were investigated, one without the consideration of biotic disturbances, the other including possible bark beetle damages. Simulations were conducted for a de-trended baseline climate (1961–1990) as well as for two transient climate change scenarios featuring a distinct increase in temperature. The main objectives were to: (i) estimate the effects of bark beetle damage on timber production and carbon (C) sequestration under climate change; (ii) assess the effects of disregarding bark beetle disturbance in the analysis.Results indicated a strong increase in bark beetle damage under climate change scenarios (up to +219% in terms of timber volume losses) compared to the baseline climate scenario. Furthermore, distinct differences were revealed between the studied management strategies, pointing at considerably lower amounts of salvage in the conversion strategy. In terms of C storage, increased biotic disturbances under climate change reduced C storage in the actively managed strategies (up to −41.0 tC ha⁻¹) over the 100-year simulation period, whereas in the unmanaged control variant some scenarios even resulted in increased C sequestration due to a stand density effect.Comparing the simulation series with and without bark beetle disturbances the main findings were: (i) forest C storage was higher in all actively managed strategies under climate change, when biotic disturbances were disregarded (up to +31.6 tC ha⁻¹ over 100 years); and (ii) in the undisturbed, unmanaged variant C sequestration was lower compared to the simulations with bark beetle disturbance (up to −69.9 tC ha⁻¹ over 100 years). The study highlights the importance of including the full range of ecosystem-specific disturbances by isolating the effect of one important agent on timber production and C sequestration.     

Regional impact assessment on forest structure and functions under climate change—the Brandenburg case study

A forest simulation model has been applied in a regional impact assessment to investigate impacts of climate change on forest structure and function in the Federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The forest model FORSKA-M was linked to a GIS that included soil, groundwater table and land-use maps. Two climate scenarios (current climate and a climate change of 1.5 K temperature increase which is combined with a precipitation decrease of 10–20% on average) for 40 meteorological stations in and around Brandenburg were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. Furthermore, the implications of vegetation changes for other forest functions were analysed by means of several indicators. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, measures of species diversity (Shannon’s and Simpson’s index) and habitat and structural diversity (Seibert’s index) were applied. The evaluation of impacts on groundwater recharge of natural and managed forests was carried out using the soil water balance model of FORSKA-M.At first, model simulations of the potential natural vegetation (PNV) on the whole area of Brandenburg with different climate scenarios were analysed. The results indicated that climatic warming would lead to a shift in the natural species composition in Brandenburg towards more drought tolerant species. The simulated diversity of the forests would be reduced, and groundwater recharge would be decreased.The majority of forests in the state of Brandenburg have been managed intensively in the past. At present, large areas of Brandenburg’s forests are dominated by pure stands of Scots pine, but current forest management practice aims at increasing the share of deciduous and mixed forests. In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, forest inventory data were used to initialise FORSKA-M with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with three different management scenarios showed that the short to mid-term effects of climatic change in terms of species composition were not as severe as expected. However, the comparison of different diversity measures indicates a decrease in the species diversity in contrast to an increase in habitat diversity under climate warming. Furthermore, a decrease in productivity and groundwater recharge was simulated under the climate change scenario.The regional impact assessment corroborated the high sensitivity of natural forests in the region to the projected climatic change and it underlined the importance of adaptive management strategies to help forestry to cope with climatic change.     

Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide

? Context

Projecting changes in forest productivity in Europe is crucial for adapting forest management to changing environmental conditions.

? Aims

The objective of this paper is to project forest productivity changes under different climate change scenarios at a large number of sites in Europe with a stand-scale process-based model.

? Methods

We applied the process-based forest growth model 4C at 132 typical forest sites of important European tree species in ten environmental zones using climate change scenarios from three different climate models and two different assumptions about CO₂ effects on productivity.

? Results

This paper shows that future forest productivity will be affected by climate change and that these effects depend strongly on the climate scenario used and the persistence of CO₂ effects. We find that productivity increases in Northern Europe, increases or decreases in Central Europe, and decreases in Southern Europe. This geographical pattern is mirrored by the responses of the individual tree species. The productivity of Scots pine and Norway spruce, mostly located in central and northern Europe, increases while the productivity of Common beech and oak in southern regions decreases. It is important to note that we consider the physiological response to climate change excluding disturbances or management.

? Conclusions

Different climate change scenarios and assumptions about the persistence of CO₂ effects lead to uncertain projections of future forest productivity. These uncertainties need to be integrated into forest management planning and adaptation of forest management to climate change using adaptive management frameworks.     

Monitoring the effects of land use and cover changes on net primary production: A case study in China's Yongding River basin

Changing land uses and cover types influence vegetation composition and health, so understanding the effects of these changes on net primary production (NPP) provides an important tool for monitoring ecosystem responses to environmental change. Using remote-sensing images and precipitation, temperature, and total solar radiation data from 1978, 1987, 2000, and 2005, and a light utilization efficiency model, we studied the effects of changes in these parameters and land use and cover types on NPP in China's Yongding River basin. We determined the NDVI of vegetation in the basin, and used these results to estimate the NPP of vegetation in the basin and the influence of land use and cover type changes on NPP under two climate scenarios: one in which the precipitation and temperature of the previous period remain unchanged into the following period, that is, use the climate in 1978, 1987 and 2000 to analyze NPP data in 1987, 2000 and 2005 respectively, and another in which both parameters remain constant at their 1978 values throughout the study period. With the climate unchanged from the former period, NPP in 1987 decreased compared with the 1978 value by 20–50 gC/m², and then increased by more than 40 gC/m² in western and central parts of the basin from 1987 to 2000. From 2000 to 2005, NPP decreased in the northwestern, northern, and eastern parts of the basin. With climate unchanged from 1978 to 2005, NPP increased from 1987 to 2000 by from 10 to 30 gC/m² in most areas. From 2000 to 2005, some farmland in western and northwestern parts of the basin and some forest land were converted into grassland, decreasing NPP by 40–50 gC/m².     

Climate change impacts,adaptive capacity,and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems

This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased variability with greater risk of extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, storms and floods. Sensitivity, potential impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability to climate change are reviewed for European forests. The most important potential impacts of climate change on forest goods and services are summarized for the Boreal, Temperate Oceanic, Temperate Continental, Mediterranean, and mountainous regions. Especially in northern and western Europe the increasing atmospheric CO₂ content and warmer temperatures are expected to result in positive effects on forest growth and wood production, at least in the short–medium term. On the other hand, increasing drought and disturbance risks will cause adverse effects. These negative impacts are very likely to outweigh positive trends in southern and eastern Europe. From west to east, the drought risk increases. In the Mediterranean regions productivity is expected to decline due to strongly increased droughts and fire risks.     

Evaluating the benefit of avalanche protection forest with GIS-based risk analyses—A case study in Switzerland

The protection of people, buildings and infrastructure against natural hazards is one of the key functions of mountain forests. Since the protective function strongly depends on small-scale local conditions such as terrain and stand characteristics, spatially explicit evaluation methods are necessary to provide information required for an effective and cost-efficient forest management. Risk analyses are recognized as the best method for estimating the danger from various natural hazards. Currently, however, risk-based strategies are rarely addressed in the management of protection forest. We present and discuss a risk-based approach to evaluate the protective effect of mountain forests in a spatially explicit manner to demonstrate the advantages of future risk-based protection forest management. We illustrate the approach by performing a GIS-based risk analysis in the case study area ‘Bannwald of Andermatt’ (Switzerland) for a 300-year snow avalanche event. Classifying forest structures based on aerial photographs allowed developing different forest cover scenarios and modeling potential avalanche release areas within the forest. Potential avalanche release areas above the forest and the avalanche run-out distances under five different scenarios of forest cover were calculated by using a two-dimensional avalanche simulation model. We calculated the annual collective risk for each scenario and compared the change in risk to reveal the spatial distribution of the protective effect of the forest. Resulting risks differed strongly between forest cover change scenarios. An enlargement of an existing wind-disturbed area within lower parts of the slope resulted only in a slight increase of risk. In contrast, the effect of an unforested area in the upper parts of the observed forest more than doubled the risk. These results show how a risk-based approach can help to quantify and illustrate the impact of differences in forest cover on the protective effect of mountain forests. It is a promising approach to determine the economic value of protection forests and thus provide quantitative and qualitative information for cost-efficient forest maintenance planning. With regard to the achievements of research to date, the presented approach may serve as a valuable method to support decision-making in a future protection forest management.     

Temperature sensitivity and recruitment dynamics of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) in northern Mongolia’s boreal forest

This study sought to clarify the recruitment dynamics and growth of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) in relation to changing temperatures in northern Mongolia. These tree species are the primary forest species found in the closed-canopy boreal forest of north-central Mongolia. Mongolia’s boreal forests exist along the southern terminus of the Siberian boreal system in both pure and mixed species stands. I collected tree cores and cross-sections as well as site and tree stature parameters from 118 forest plots in the Darhad valley of north-central Mongolia. Principle components analysis of 130 L. sibirica tree ring series informed the construction of two composite chronologies for this species. A chronology for P. obovata was developed using 24 tree ring series. Correlation analysis between tree ring indices and temperature data showed two distinct growth signals: a positive response to growing season temperatures was exhibited by one L. sibirica chronology and a negative response to spring temperatures was exhibited by a second L. sibirica chronology. The P. obovata chronology exhibited strong negative correlations with mean monthly and mean maximum monthly growing season temperatures. Multiple analyses of variance (MANOVA) indicated that tree stature (dbh, height) and site parameters (latitude, longitude, slope, aspect, elevation) did not significantly predict growth response or species. Forest recruitment events appear episodic for both species. Synchronous establishment of saplings, based on approximate root collar age, suggests an initial floristic model for mixed composition stands likely due to supra-annual variations of fire, land-use and climate. Forest management activities in the region should consider the diverging growth response to temperature shown here by prioritizing protection forests and the various ecosystem services provided by forests in arid ecosystems. In addition, promoting selection harvests over clear-felling would maximize future alternatives under conditions of rapidly changing climate. Care should be taken in new forest management planning activities until adequate information exists on the likely trajectory of this system due to climate-induced forest change.     

Crown fragmentation assessment in tropical trees: Method, insights and perspectives

Decreasing growth rate (Feeley et al., 2007) and large die-back due to drought (Phillips et al., 2009) suggest that tropical forests are suffering recent climate changes. Forest vulnerability to external factors (e.g. air pollution, acid rain) is widely studied in northern countries, while only a few attempts have investigated crown integrity in the Tropics. The method needs to be generic enough to account for the large number of species and crown shapes encountered in tropical forests. In the present study, we developed and tested a novel field method that estimates crown fragmentation (main branch mortality (MB) and secondary branch mortality (SB)), liana infestation (LI) and crown position (CP) in the canopy. The relationship between crown fragmentation and annual growth rate (agr) was investigated through multiple regression. Six out of eight canopy tree species showed significant growth decline with increasing crown fragmentation. Higher probability of death was also found in trees with severe crown fragmentation. The capacity of such crown assessment to depict tree vitality in a forest stand is discussed along with potential applications in both forest science and management.     

风对林木的影响

风除对森林造成了危害外,还对树木的生长、形态以及森林生态等产生影响。随着全球气候变化的发展,更多和更强的暴风出现的危险性日益增加。为了更好地理解风害对树木、林分和森林生态系统的影响,为森林经营管理提供依据,本文对近10年来国际上有关风对林木影响内容进行归纳总结。结果表明,风对林木影响的研究主要在以下几个方面取得了重要的进展：1)风与林木的空气动力学关系;2)树木在风力荷载下其适应性的生长机理;3)树木对风的生理响应：4)森林风害的危险评估。所有这些研究大都在人工用材林中进行的。此外,本文还介绍了该研究领域需要开展的其它研究,如1)天然林或天然次生林的风害研究;2)风害形成的林窗和森林动态研究;3)风害对森林生态主要过程的影响研究;4)．风害与森林管理研究。图3参61。     

Carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland under different cutting and climate scenarios

In this work the aim was to determine how carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland is dependent on the forest management and increased production potential due to climate change. This was analysed for the period 2003–2053 using forest inventory data and the forestry model MELA. Four combinations of two climate change and two management scenarios were studied: current (CU) and gradually warming (CC) climate and forest management strategies corresponding to different rates of utilisation of the cutting potential, namely maximum sustainable removal (Sust) or maximum net present value (NPV) of wood production (Max). In this analysis of Finland, the initial amount of carbon in the growing stock was 765 Mt (2,802 Tg CO₂). At the end of the simulation, the carbon in the growing stock of trees in Finland had increased to 894 Mt (3,275 Tg CO₂) under CUSust, 906 Mt (3,321 Tg CO₂) under CUMax, 1,060 Mt (3,885 Tg CO₂) under CCSust and 1,026 Mt (3,758 Tg CO₂) under CCMax. The results show that future development of carbon in the growing stock is not only dependent on climate change scenarios but also on forest management. For example, maximising the NPV of wood production without sustainability constraints results, over the short term, in a large amount of wood obtained in regeneration cuttings and a consequent decrease in the amount of carbon in growing stock. Over the longer term, this decrease in the carbon of growing stock in regenerated forests is compensated by the subsequent increase in fast-growing young forests. By comparison, no drastic short-term decrease in carbon stock was found in the Sust scenarios; only minor decreases were observed.     

Simulating the productivity of a subalpine forest at high elevations under representative concentration pathway scenarios in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China

The current work adopted the Biome-BioGeochemical Cycle model to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of a subalpine forest (Picea crassifolia forest) under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China. This study also investigated the responses of forest’s NPP to different combinations of climatic changes and CO₂ concentration increase. Results showed that (1) under the RCP scenarios, greater increases in temperature, precipitation, and CO₂ concentration caused larger increments in forest NPP; (2) the effect of CO₂ concentration (increased NPP from 19.9% to 21.7%) was more significant than that of climate change (increased NPP from 7.5% to 17.1%); (3) the simultaneous increments in climatic change and atmospheric CO₂ concentration led to a remarkable increase in P. crassifolia forest NPP (ranging from 33.1% to 41.3%), with the combination of the two exerting strong interactive effects on forest NPP; and (4) the response of the forest’s NPP to future global change was more intense at high elevations than at low ones, with the temperature being the main factor controlling forest NPP variation at the high-elevation regions. These valuable predictions can help clarify how subalpine forest ecosystems respond to simultaneous or independent changes in climate and CO₂ concentration.