U.s. Competitiveness: beyond the trade deficit

Large trade deficits and the corresponding increase in U.S. international indebtedness have raised concerns about the long-run competitiveness of the United States. But being competitive requires more than balance in our foreign trade; it requires an improving standard of living. The long-term U.S. competitive problem is largely caused by low saving rates, high costs of capital, and the resulting inadequate level of both visible and invisible investment. As long as the U.S. national saving rate remains far below that of all our major competitor nations, there is little chance for restoring America's international economic position.     

Energy and the u.s. Economy: a biophysical perspective

A series of hypotheses is presented about the relation of national energy use to national economic activity (both time series and cross-sectional) which offer a different perspective from standard economics for the assessment of historical and current economic events. The analysis incorporates nearly 100 years of time series data and 3 years of cross-sectional data on 87 sectors of the United States economy. Gross national product, labor productivity, and price levels are all correlated closely with various aspects of energy use, and these correlations are improved when corrections are made for energy quality. A large portion of the apparent increase in U.S. energy efficiency has been due to our ability to expand the relative use of high-quality fuels such as petroleum and electricity, and also to relative shifts in fuel use between sectors of the economy. The concept of energy return on investment is introduced as a major driving force in our economy, and data are provided which show a marked decline in energy return on investment for all our principal fuels in recent decades. Future economic growth will depend largely on the net energy yield of alternative fuel sources, and some standard economic models may need to be modified to account for the biophysical constraints on human economic activity.     

Global crop forecasting

Many foreign countries are as dependent on imports of food as the United States is on imports of oil. As the world's largest exporter of food, the United States needs reliable information on fluctuating foreign crop production. But available information is often inadequate and at best untimely. It is gathered by the foreign governments' often outmoded systems and its release may be delayed out of economic self-interest. Recently three U.S. government agencies put together a crop inventory system using satellite remote sensing and worldwide weather reporting and tested it in the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). A 1977 real-time forecast of U.S.S.R. wheat production indicates that the approach works and may be expandable to other areas and other crops.     

Slow neutron scattering experiments

Neutron scattering is a versatile technique that has been successfully applied to condensed-matter physics, biology, polymer science, chemistry, and materials science. The United States lost its leadership role in this field to Western Europe about 10 years ago. Recently, a modest investment in the United States in new facilities and a positive attitude on the part of the national laboratories toward outside users have resulted in a dramatic increase in the number of U.S. scientists involved in neutron scattering research. Plans are being made for investments in new and improved facilities that could return the leadership role to the United States.     

A "prolife" population delegation?

The White House has been circulating drafts of a controversial position paper to be presented at the August 1984 United Nations world population conference in Mexico City. The paper dismisses population growth in developing countries as a cause of unemployment, illegal migration, or famine, and asserts that population programs are no substitute for ending government controls that stifle economic growth. It also contains a strong statement against abortion, states the U.S. position against coercion in family planning, and declares the Reagan administration's resolve not to fund programs advocating abortion. The U.S. stance is expected to antagonize developing countries and isolate the United States at the U.N. conference.     

U.s.-Japanese space relations at a crossroads

The relations between Japan and the United States in space form a microcosm of the complex, multidimensional interactions between these two powerful societies. Cooperation and competition exist side by side, and the future balance between them is uncertain. The United States needs to develop a strategy with respect to future U.S.-Japanese space relations that balances national security, political, scientific, and economic interests. Crafting such a strategy is particularly difficult while both the United States and Japan debate the goals and content of their future space programs and while the two nations try to assess their broader interests and roles in the rapidly changing geopolitical environment. Essential to a productive approach to U.S.-Japanese space relations is an accurate understanding of the character and content of the Japanese space effort.     

中美农业全球价值链嵌入位置与演进路径的对比研究——基于全球价值链生产长度的比较

本文从全球价值链视角出发,借鉴Wang等关于生产长度(PL)的计算方法,利用世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)的最新数据,对中国和美国农业全球价值链的生产长度进行计算,并通过分解得到两国各自农业在全球价值链中的国内生产长度和国际生产长度,对两国农业在全球价值链参与中的嵌入位置及演进情况进行比较。结果显示:①中国农业的整体全球价值链生产长度,以及国内、国际生产长度均大于美国,两国农业的国内生产长度均短于国际生产长度。②中国农业全球价值链演进路径为国内、国际生产长度同时延长,并促使整体全球生产长度也获得延长。③美国农业产业链演进路径为国外生产逐渐替代国内生产,但其整体的全球生产长度变长。因此,中国应注意防范农业领域对国外投入过度依赖的风险,避免农业国际生产长度进一步过度延长。     

The impact of foreign graduate students on engineering education in the United States

Surveys of chairpersons and faculty members of engineering departments of U.S. universities were conducted in the fall of 1985 to examine the relation between the high proportion of foreign graduate students and the operation and quality of engineering education in the United States. Information was obtained on admissions criteria and policies, financial aid, and the performance of U.S. and foreign students as teaching and research assistants. Overall, the survey respondents believed that foreign students are an asset and that, without them, training and research would suffer. Language and communications were the problems most frequently mentioned as adversely affecting the performance of foreign students.     

An upheaval in u.s. Strategic thought

Early this year, the U.S. land-based force of nuclear missiles became vulnerable to a preemptive attack by the Soviet Union, as the Soviets deployed a large number of highly accurate warheads on their own missiles. They first demonstrated this capability in 1977. Since then, U.S. missile vulnerability has come to assume great importance in superpower relations. Western observers have portrayed the Soviet achievement as a sign of aggression, and made missile vulnerability into a symbol of declining American military strength. The government has proposed a vast military buildup of nuclear weapons, supposedly made necessary by this new threat. But the public is increasingly skeptical, and support for some form of arms control is growing. The first article in this series examines how the United States learned of the Soviet accuracy, and why it caused such great alarm. The next article will examine the Reagan Administration's response to this threat.     

Marine science and the 1974 law of the sea conference

More intensive and varied use of the oceans and their resources requires a more comprehensive legal reégime than previously. Three years of preparatory work have been completed leading toward the Law of the Sea Conference that opened on 20 June in Caracas, Venezuela. Although the details of the new reégime are still to be negotiated, it appears certain that the coastal nations will gain some form of jurisdiction over the fisheries and mineral resources off their shores. It is probable that a new "economic zone" will be established between a relatively narrow (12-mile) territorial sea and the international ocean space beyond. If, as seems likely, this economic zone is 200 miles wide, it will encompass some 37 percent of the ocean as shown in Fig. 1. Unless the scientific community can gather more support than it has to date, it seems probable that scientific research within this economic zone will only be possible with the consent of the coastal nation. The United States has proposed a compromise solution which attempts to balance the interests of the scientific community with those of the coastal state. Under the U.S. proposal, a research group abiding by certain specific obligations to the coastal state would be free to carry out its research activities without obtaining explicit consent from the coastal state. To date the U.S. proposal has received little official support from any nation, even from nations with major oceanographic interests.     

Fertility in the United States

From the postwar high of 3.8 births per woman at the peak of the baby boom, the total fertility rate in the United States has fallen to 1.8, where it has remained unchanged for nearly a decade. This below-replacement level of fertility has, in recent decades, characterized most Western countries, some of which have shown declines to well below 1.5 births per woman. Were it not for the continued infusion of immigrants, the U.S. population, which already shows the aging characteristic of low fertility, would stop growing and begin to decline before the middle of the next century. The low fertility in the United States has been accomplished by a postponement of marriage and by the widespread use of contraception, with heavy reliance on surgical sterilization as a contraceptive method. Judging from the experience of other Western countries and from our own historical experience of two centuries of fertility decline interrupted only by the baby boom, as well as from the absence of social trends that would counteract those contributing to that decline, the prognosis is for a continued low level of fertility in the United States.     

Toxicology. Panel urges further study of biotech corn

This fall, genetically modified corn that had not been approved for human consumption was found in taco shells in the United States. Last week, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) convened a scientific panel to review evidence on whether this StarLink corn could harm sensitive people by causing allergic reactions. The panel found that the overall probability is "low," but the EPA appears intent on investigating further before allowing the corn in foods, as its manufacturer has requested.     

Science's Role in the World Health Organization

One hears often of the financial contributions made by the United States to the support of activities within the U.N. system, but much less frequently about benefits obtained. A particular instance of the latter is worth citing. An analysis was recently made by N.W. Axnick and J.M. Lane (3) of the costs associated with the protection of the United States against smallpox in 1968. This was estimated to be $153.8 million, of which $0.7 million was contributed to WHO specially earmarked for its smallpox eradication program, and $3 million in U.S. bilateral assistance to 19 countries in West Africa. Ihe success of the WHO-directed smallpox eradication program throughout the world has resulted in a 1972 decision by U.S. authorities to discontinue routine vaccination of the general population and of smallpox vaccination requirements for international travel to smallpox-free countries, which was estimated to involve economic costs of $135.7 million during 1968. The total current U.S. contribution (1972) to all activities of WHO is $27.6 million. Thus it will be seen that very substantial savings, probably exceding $100 million annually, wili accrue to the United States from the work of WHO on smallpox alone.     

Biotechnology in europe

The countries of the European Economic Community have recently mounted considerable efforts to commercialize biotechnology. Together, these efforts approach the same number of companies and level of government spending as those in the United States. In Europe there is more government emphasis on support for industry-university collaborations and industrial projects than in the United States, where basic research is emphasized. European efforts are often not easily delineated from those in the United States; many European companies have extensive U.S. operations and many U.S. companies have involvement in Europe. Strategies and efforts in European biotechnology are examined and compared to those in the United States.     

The "decade of the environment" in the u.s.s.R

The decade of the 1970's was for the U.S.S.R, as for the United States, a period of increased awareness of environmental deterioration. In response, new laws were passed, pollution control funding was increased, and natural resource conservation was heavily stressed. Despite such good intentions, the cumulative effects of new technologies, inadequate budgets and enforcement, the primacy of production goals, and various institutional impediments resulted in an uneven and in some places inadequate level of environmental enhancement.     

Agricultural structure and economic adjustment

There has been much discussion of changing agricultural structure in the United States. In this paper, the author reviews some of the factors contributing to structural change in the United States and describes the policies adopted by the European Community with respect to agricultural structure. The European experience with structural policies suggests that this approach is not very promising for the United States where no specific structural policies exist. The argument developed in this paper is that structural changes in agriculture are simply one example of economic adjustment in a capitalist economy, that economic adjustments are generally desirable although they are not costless, and that discussions of agricultural structure should focus on methods to alleviate the costs of adjustment rather than on efforts to prevent change.     

China's alfalfa market and imports: Development,trends, and potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations

This study examines the development and trends of China's alfalfa market and imports, identifies key factors for the rapid increase in China's alfalfa imports, and discusses potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations on the alfalfa markets and trade in both nations. China's rapid transition toward larger-scale commercial dairy production, with enhanced feed and cost management as well as quality and safety control, and its limited resources for high-quality alfalfa production are key factors for the dramatic increase in its alfalfa imports, from 19 601 metric tons in 2008 to 1.38 million metric tons (mmt) in 2018. While the United States dominated China's alfalfa imports with an average share of 97.01% from 2007 to 2017, the share dropped to 83.76% in 2018 and 63.28% in January 2019 due to the trade dispute and retaliations started in 2018. China will likely remain a large importer of alfalfa because of both its growing demand and the comparative advantages of imported alfalfa in quality and price, but the imports from the United States will be highly affected by the ongoing trade dispute and negotiations. China is also expected to make more efforts to reduce its dependence on U.S. alfalfa through increased investment in domestic alfalfa production and identification of alternative sources of alfalfa and other hay imports.     

New directions in the relation between public and private debt

Until the 1980s the outstanding indebtedness of government and private-sector borrowers in the United States exhibited sufficient negative covariation that total outstanding debt remained steady relative to nonfinancial economic activity. Three hypotheses-one based on lenders' behavior, one on borrowers' behavior, and one on credit market institutional arrangements-provide potential explanations for this phenomenon. Since 1980 the U.S. debt markets have departed from these previously prevailing patterns, however, as both government and private borrowing have risen sharply.     

Industrial innovation in Japan and the United States

Japanese firms tend to be quicker and more economical than U.S.firms at developing and introducing new products and processes, but this advantage seems to exist only among innovations based on external technology, rather than internal technology. Whereas U.S.firms put more emphasis on marketing start-up, they put much less emphasis on tooling, equipment, and manufacturing facilities than do Japanese firms. Applied R&D in Japan, which focuses more on processes than in the United States, seems to have yielded a handsome return; but there is no evidence that the rate of return from basic research has been relatively high in Japan. In robotics, the Japanese edge seems to increase as one moves from R&D toward the market.     

GREENHOUSE WARMING: Dueling Models: Future U.S. Climate Uncertain

A U.S. national assessment, drawing on the best available climate model predictions, has concluded that the United States will indeed warm, affecting everything from the western snowpacks that supply California with water to New England's fall foliage. But on a more detailed level, the assessment often draws a blank. As much as policy-makers would like to know exactly what's in store for Americans, the rudimentary state of regional climate science will not soon allow it, and the results of this 3-year effort brought the point home.