Simulation of apparent infection rate to predict severity of soybean rust using a fuzzy logic system

ABSTRACT Few biologically based models to assess the risk of soybean rust have been developed because of difficulty in estimating variables related to infection rate of the disease. A fuzzy logic system, however, can estimate apparent infection rate by combining meteorological variables and biological criteria pertinent to soybean rust severity. In this study, a fuzzy logic apparent infection rate (FLAIR) model was developed to simulate severity of soybean rust and validated using data from field experiments on two soybean cultivars, TK 5 and G 8587. The FLAIR model estimated daily apparent infection rate of soybean rust and simulated disease severity based on population dynamics. In weekly simulation, the FLAIR model explained >85% of variation in disease severity. In simulation of an entire epidemic period, the FLAIR model was able to predict disease severity accurately once initial values of disease severity were predicted accurately. Our results suggest that a model could be developed to determine apparent infection rate and an initial value of disease severity in advance using forecasted weather data, which would provide accurate prediction of severity of soybean rust before the start of a season.     

Profitability of fungicide applications for managing soybean rust in scenarios of variable efficacy and costs: A stochastic simulation

Soybean rust (SBR) in Brazil is controlled with fungicides, which have shown variable, sometimes declining, efficacy over time. A Monte Carlo simulation framework was implemented as a decision tool and to estimate the probability for a fungicide programme being profitable depending on efficacy and total cost defined by the user. Probability distributions were fitted to slopes and intercepts of the disease–yield relationship and severity in the untreated plots reported in the literature, as well as historical records of soybean price. Simulations of disease reduction conditioned to predefined control efficacy and total application costs were split into scenarios that combined two categories of severity (high and low) and two attainable yield classes (high and low). These categories were defined based on the median of severity (57.8%) and median of the intercept (yield when severity is zero, 2995.1 kg/ha). Probability matrices were constructed relating fungicide efficacy and costs. A higher frequency of break-even events occurred in scenarios of high disease pressure and higher yield. Yearly simulations, starting with 79.4% efficacy, assuming two rates of decline previously determined for tebuconazole (high decline rate), showed that the programme may remain profitable during the first 5 to 7 years of use, in contrast to cyproconazole (low decline rate), a fungicide that would be profitable during the entire decade. This approach was shown to be useful and can be adapted to other diseases of soybean and other crops, as long as damage functions are available. An interactive web app was developed to perform the simulations accessible at alvesks.shinyapps.io/rusty-profits/.     

Silicon amendment improves wheat defence against Fusarium graminearum and complements the control by fungicide of Fusarium head blight

A three-year field experiment with two wheat cultivars evaluated the effect of soil-applied silicon (Si), with and without fungicide spraying, on Fusarium head blight (FHB) control. Silicon treatment alone reduced FHB severity and the percentage of damaged wheat kernels, regardless of the cultivar. The best disease control was obtained for the cultivar with moderate disease resistance (MR), supplied with silicon and treated with fungicide during flowering. Silicon treatment alone promoted an increase in deoxynivalenol (DON) concentration in the disease-susceptible cultivar; however, in the MR cultivar, silicon amendment associated with fungicide treatment led to a reduction in DON concentration. Greenhouse experiments evaluated the effect of silicon combined with different timings of fungicide application on wheat defences against Fusarium graminearum. Plants supplied with silicon had a longer pathogen incubation period, lower FHB severity and lower DON concentration when compared to plants without silicon. In addition, silicon-supplied plants had higher soluble phenolic content and altered antioxidant enzyme activities (SOD, CAT, POX and PPO) that favoured early accumulation of hydrogen peroxide when compared to plants without silicon. Greater control of FHB and lower DON concentration in plants treated with silicon and fungicide before inoculation and up to 1 day after inoculation was associated with increased levels of defence-associated metabolites. Silicon contributed to the reduction of FHB and DON concentration in wheat, especially for the MR cultivar and, when combined with fungicide spraying, both MR and disease-susceptible cultivars had enhanced performances upon silicon amendment.     

Use of multispectral radiometry in wheat yellow rust experiments1

Winter-wheat field fungicide experiments were monitored by multispectral radiometry to determine yellow rust impact on crop growth and to predict yield loss caused by disease. Spectral reflectance data were highly correlated with yellow rust severity. Linear regression models with spectral ratios as independent variables explained 90–93% of the variation in yield between plots with different treatments of fungicide. The area under the NIR/Red curve, calculated from heading to soft-dough growth stages, was a good predictor of yield loss determined at harvest.     

Determination of agronomic practices for the management of blight of chickpea caused by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ascochyta rabiei</Emphasis> in Turkey: 1. Appropriate sowing date

In order to determine the most appropriate dates for planting chickpea in central Anatolia, Turkey, six cultivars were planted at three sites that differed in disease pressure. In two of the sites, disease pressure from Ascochyta rabiei was promoted by spreading infected chickpea debris on the soil surface at the time of planting and, at one of these, sprinkle irrigation was applied. In the third site, where conditions were dryer, no artificial inoculum was provided. Plants from seeds sown in early March had the most disease and in the sprinkle irrigated plots the disease severity ranged from 7.8 on the most susceptible cv. Canitez to 3.3 on the least susceptible Gokce as scored on the 1–9 scale where 1 = no disease and 9 represents a plant killed by the fungus. There was an inverse relationship between disease severity and yield, production from blight resistant cultivars of around 2,000 kg ha⁻¹ being more than twice that of susceptible ones. Delaying planting for 3–5 weeks reduced the severity of ascochyta blight but also reduced the yields in four of the six cultivars. In contrast, reduction in disease severity by delayed sowing resulted in yield increases for the susceptible cvs Canitez and Local, although yield level was not as much as those of the less susceptible cvs sown early. Delay of 6–9 weeks almost eliminated ascochyta blight but yields of all cultivars were seriously compromised by drought stress. In consequence, chickpea farmers are recommended to use resistant or tolerant cultivars and sow early in March. For less resistant cultivars, sowing in early April is recommended. Further delay is not recommended unless irrigation is provided and fungicide spraying is recommended where signs of infection are present under conditions conducive to the disease.     

Evaluation of fungicide application rates,spray schedules and alternative management options for rust and angular leaf spot of snap beans in Uganda

Yield losses due to rust and angular leaf spot (ALS) of snap beans may reach 100% in Eastern Africa. Where susceptible varieties are grown, farmers control these diseases with routine fungicide applications. To determine an optimum application rate and spray schedule for Orius® (tebuconazole 250 g/L), we sprayed 10 mL and 20 mL Orius® per 15 L spray water twice at two trifoliate leaf stage and 50% flowering, and three times at the same stages, with an additional application at pod initiation. In farmers’ fields, we tested the effect of fungicide sprays, use of resistant variety, intercropping, increased plant spacing and farmyard manure on rust and ALS diseases. Application three times of 20 mL Orius® per 15 L spray water reduced rust severity scores by 5.7 and 2.4 in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Lowest rust and ALS severities were observed when a resistant variety, fungicide or farmyard manure was used. Pod yield increments due to disease management ranged between 13% and 242%. Prophylactic fungicide application, use of resistant varieties and farmyard manure can be used to reduce disease severity and improve snap bean quality on smallholder farms.     

Heterogeneity of peach rust disease progress within the tree canopy

Peach rust (Tranzschelia discolor) is a major foliar disease of peach that can cause severe defoliation. Few epidemiological studies have been conducted on peach rust, and there is no information concerning the spatial distribution of the disease within the canopy. This study aimed to characterise the onset and temporal progress of peach rust in three height strata in peach trees grown in two different orchards: one treated with fungicide and the second non-treated. Evaluations were conducted fortnightly between November and April for two consecutive years. Positional information for the disease within the canopy was obtained by assessing the incidence and severity of peach rust on leaves in both orchards. A linear mixed model with the position of shoots as the fixed effect and cultivars and blocks as random effects was adopted for the data analysis over both seasons, in the fungicide-treated orchard incidence and severity ranged from 60 to 90 % and 0.5 to 2 %, respectively, while in the non-treated orchard incidence and severity ranged from 90 to 100 % and 10 to 15 %, respectively. The area under the disease progress curve was greater for the upper shoots compared to the lower shoots, but the disease progress rates were similar. The logistic and exponential models best fitted the incidence and severity data, respectively. Urediniospores were detected by traps within the experimental area between late winter and early spring. Predominance of autoinfection or alloinfection is discussed.     

Effects of bean rust (Uromyces appendiculatus) epidemics on host dynamics of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris)

Epidemics of bean rust ( Uromyces appendiculatus ) and their effects on host dynamics of common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris ) were studied in three controlled greenhouse experiments, with and without fungicide sprays, on two susceptible bean cultivars, Dufrix and Duplika. Bean plants were artificially inoculated with a suspension of 10⁵ U. appendiculatus urediniospores mL⁻¹ water and temporal disease progress, as well as host growth dynamics (leaf size and defoliation), were monitored on a leaflet basis in comparison with non-inoculated plants, which were sprayed with deionized water. Progress curves of bean rust, expressed as the proportion of leaf area occupied by pustules (uredinia), or as the proportion occupied by total lesion area (= halo areas + pustule area), were well described by logistic functions with maximum disease levels clearly lower than 1. Bean rust epidemics substantially affected host growth by reducing the total leaf area formed by 17·4–35·6% and 35·3–46·2% compared with healthy plants for cvs Dufrix and Duplika, respectively. Fungicide sprays mitigated the negative effect of bean rust, leading to a gain in leaf area of 17–21% compared with unsprayed plants in both cultivars in two experiments, while in another experiment, disease control had no effect in Dufrix, but a clear effect in Duplika. In addition to the growth depression, bean rust also led to pronounced losses of leaf area as a result of reduced leaf size (leaf shrivelling) and accelerated defoliation.     

Predicting severity of asian soybean rust epidemics with empirical rainfall models

ABSTRACT Although Asian soybean rust occurs in a broad range of environmental conditions, the most explosive and severe epidemics have been reported in seasons with warm temperature and abundant moisture. Associations between weather and epidemics have been reported previously, but attempts to identify the major factors and model these relationships with field data have been limited to specific locations. Using data from 2002-03 to 2004-05 from 34 field experiments at 21 locations in Brazil that represented all major soybean production areas, we attempted to identify weather variables using a 1-month time window following disease detection to develop simple models to predict final disease severity. Four linear models were identified, and these models explained 85 to 93% of variation in disease severity. Temperature variables had lower correlation with disease severity compared with rainfall, and had minimal predictive value for final disease severity. A curvilinear relationship was observed between 1 month of accumulated rainfall and final disease severity, and a quadratic response model using this variable had the lowest prediction error. Linear response models using only rainfall or number of rainy days in the 1-month period tended to overestimate disease for severity <30%. The study highlights the importance of rainfall in influencing soybean rust epidemics in Brazil, as well as its potential use to provide quantitative risk assessments and seasonal forecasts for soybean rust, especially for regions where temperature is not a limiting factor for disease development.     

Effects of disease and plant competition on yield in monocultures and mixtures of two wheat cultivars

Disease seventy and crop yield were compared in monocultures and mixtures of two wheat cultivars. one susceptible and one resistant to Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici. Part of each plot was inoculated and part treated with fungicide. Rust seventy was inversely related to the proportion of resistant plants present. Weight of grain in 100 heads of the susceptible cultivar increased as the amount of rust decreased. The susceptible cultivar yielded less than the resistant cultivar in monoculture, but was a stronger competitor in mixtures. Competitive abilities of the cultivars were independent of severity of rust in the mixtures studied.     

UV-B辐射增强对小麦条锈病影响的初步探讨

在温室条件下用铭贤169、吨半麦、咸农4号3个小麦品种,研究了接种条锈菌条中32号小种前后UV-B辐射增强对小麦条锈病的影响。结果表明,接种前对小麦照射UV-B增强了品种铭贤169和吨半麦的病情指数,但对咸农4号的病情指数没有影响。接种后照射UV-B对品种咸农4号、铭贤169和吨半麦的病情指数均无显著影响,但却减少了条锈菌在品种铭贤169和吨半麦上的产孢期与产孢量。     

Lack of influence of host plant disease resistance on the evolution of resistance to sterol demethylation-inhibiting (DMI) fungicides in<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cercospora beticola</Emphasis>

Field experiments were conducted during 1997 and 1998 to determine the effects of sugar beet cultivar susceptibility to Cercospora leaf-spot on the sensitivity ofCercospora beticola isolates to the triazole fungicide flutriafol. Four cultivars with different levels of disease resistance were treated in experimental plots with six spray applications of flutriafol. Disease assessments were carried out at 15-day intervals. Sensitivity to flutriafol was measured on isolates collected from the plots ∼15 days after the last flutriafol application. Measurements of disease severity and calculations of AUDPC (area under disease progress curve) values showed a distinct differentiation among cultivars, reflecting their level of disease resistance. Disease severity was significantly lower in cvs. ‘Bianca’ and ‘Areth’ than in ‘Univers’ and ‘Rizor’ both in the untreated and in the flutriafol-treated plots. Fungal isolates from flutriafol-treated plots were less sensitive to the fungicide than were isolates from untreated plots. However, no differences in isolate sensitivity were observed among the cultivars, as regards their level of disease resistance. Despite the fact that the use of resistant cultivars cannot eliminate selectively the resistant strains, it can eliminate both resistant and sensitive isolates. Reducing the number of treatments with DMIs, by applying them only when environmental conditions are favorable for disease development, is a prerequisite for successful resistance management; therefore, the use of disease-resistant varieties could aid toward management of DMIs resistance inC. beticola. http://www.phytoparasitica.org posting May 6, 2003.     

Effect of two-component cultivar mixtures on development of wheat yellow rust disease in the field and greenhouse in the Nepal Himalayas

Wheat yellow rust (WYR), caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (PST), is a major disease of wheat, and deployment of a single cultivar often leads to disease epidemics. Effect of inoculum level, foliar fungicide spray, and wheat cultivar mixtures were evaluated on disease development in the field and greenhouse in Nepal. Treatments were arranged in a split–split plot design with three replications in both experiments. Two inoculum levels of PST (low and high) were main plot factors; nontreated control and foliar spray of fungicides (Mancozeb and Bayleton) were subplot factors; and two-component cultivar mixtures, composed of different ratios of a susceptible (S) and a resistant (R) cultivars (90:10, 80:20, and 50:50, 100:0, and 0:100) were sub–subplot factors. WYR severity was assessed at different time intervals, and disease development was calculated as area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC). Inoculum level did not cause significant differences in AUDPC in the field but did in the greenhouse. Foliar spray of fungicides reduced the AUDPC in the greenhouse and field. In both experiments, AUDPC values were low in cultivar mixtures compared with a pure stand of a susceptible cultivar. As the proportion of resistant cultivar increased compared with the susceptible cultivar in the S:R mixture component, disease severity decreased with a consequent increase in grain yield. The greater yield obtained with cultivar mixtures compared with only the susceptible cultivar, independent of inoculum level and fungicide spray in the field, revealed a promising strategy to manage WYR in Nepal.     

Integrated control of potato late blight: predicting the combined efficacy of host resistance and fungicides

Integrating cultivars that are partially resistant with reduced fungicide doses offers growers an opportunity to decrease fungicide input but still maintain disease control. To use integrated control strategies in practice requires a method to determine the combined effectiveness of particular cultivar and fungicide dose combinations. Simple models, such as additive dose models (ADM) and multiplicative survival models (MSM), have been used previously to determine the joint action of two or more pesticides. This study tests whether a model based on multiplicative survival principles can predict the joint action of fungicide doses combined with cultivars of differing partial host resistance. Data from eight field experiments on potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) were used to test the model; the severity of foliar blight was assessed and scores used to calculate the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC). A subset of data, derived from the most susceptible cultivar, King Edward, was used to produce dose–response curves from which parameter values were estimated, quantifying fungicide efficacy. These values, along with the untreated values for the more resistant cultivars, Cara and Sarpo Mira, were used to predict the combined efficacy of the remaining cultivar by fungicide dose combinations. Predicted efficacy was compared against observations from an independent subset of treatments from the field experiments. The analysis demonstrated that multiplicative survival principles can be applied to describe the joint efficacy of host resistance and fungicide dose combinations.     

The reduction of chemical control of leek rust,a simulation study

A model is presented which simulates chemical control against leek rust under a system of supervised control. The spread of disease between fields in one farm and the influx of spores from outside is part of the model. The possible reduction in fungicide sprays against leek rust following various preventive measures is estimated with this model. Results from this preliminary model suggest that supervised control of leek rust will result only in a considerable reduction in the number of fungicide sprays if the leek fields are sufficiently isolated and the planting material is initially disease free. Where isolation between the fields is not feasible, overlap between successive crops should be avoided. Without the use of these preventive measures, there is little prospect for supervised control and the grower will have no option but the heavy use of fungicides.     

Protection of susceptible potato cultivars against late blight in mixtures increases with decreasing disease pressure

ABSTRACT Cultivar mixtures can reduce potato late blight severity on susceptible cultivars. While alternating rows of susceptible and resistant cultivars would be more acceptable than random mixtures for commercial use, they increase the genotype unit area, which is an unfavorable factor for mixture efficiency, and have been minimally efficient when disease pressure is high. The effects of disease pressure on the performance of alternating rows of cultivars possessing various types and levels of resistance were investigated in 2000 and 2001 near Quito, Ecuador, where natural pressure of late blight is high. The experiments included the highly susceptible cvs. Cecilia in 2000 and LBr37 in 2001, as well as C114 (moderately resistant) and PAN (highly resistant), planted as pure stands and as the three possible two-way combinations. Different disease pressures were obtained with three spraying schedules of a contact fungicide: nontreated, one spray every second week, and one spray weekly. The area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) on the susceptible cultivar was 0 to 20% less in mixed than in pure plots when no fungicide was applied, 13 to 26% less with a biweekly application of fungicide, and 32 to 53% less with a weekly application. These values are comparable to those obtained in previous experiments in smaller plots with designs maximizing the distance between susceptible plants. No significant differences in mixture performance were observed according to the resistant cultivar included. Effects on yield were minimal, because of the impact of factors other than late blight. Disease pressure therefore appears as a major factor conditioning the efficiency of potato cultivar mixtures against late blight.     

Effects of bean line pattern mosaic virus on the monocyclic components of rust and angular leaf spot of Phaseolus bean at different temperatures

Monocyclic components (development rate during the incubation period or latent period, lesion density, lesion size and disease severity) of rust ( Uromyces appendiculatus ) and of angular leaf spot ( Phaeoisariopsis griseola ) in two bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris ) cultivars (Rosinha G-2 and Carioca), pre-infected or not with bean line pattern mosaic virus (BLPMV), were determined. Trials were conducted at temperatures in the range from 9 to 27°C for rust and from 12 to 30°C for angular leaf spot. Regardless of viral pre-infection, the effect of temperature on the four monocyclic components followed an optimum curve and could be described by a generalized beta function. Generally, angular leaf spot was favoured by higher temperatures with an optimum for disease severity between 24.2 and 28.3°C compared with 15.9–18.5°C for rust. Pre-infection with BLPMV did not change the shape of the optimum curves for all components, but significantly reduced lesion density and disease severity on both cultivars. The development rates during incubation and latent periods for both fungal diseases were not affected by BLPMV. Pre-infection with virus did not alter the ranking of cultivars with respect to resistance to both fungal diseases.     

Development and implementation of cost-effective strategies to manage brown rot of peach trees in Imathia,Greece

Development of cost-effective strategies to manage brown rot caused by Monilinia laxa of peach implies a better understanding of the susceptibility of different cultivars and pre-harvest contamination. This study investigated the susceptibility of 24 peach and nectarine cultivars to shoot blight caused by Monilinia spp. and found various levels of susceptibility, with the nectarine cultivar Tasty Free scored as the most susceptible. Studies on the the existence and detection of latent infections by Monilinia spp. in three peach (‘A37’, ‘Andross’, and ‘E-45’) and three nectarine (‘Venus’, ‘Fantasia’, and ‘Tasty Free’) cultivars were also conducted. The results showed that latent infections were detected only in nectarine cultivars when fruit were collected on 23 May and 22 June. In contrast, nectarine fruit collected on 7 June and all peach cultivars tested had no detectable latent infection. This study also indicated that the fungicide thiophanate methyl applied at the pit hardening stage reduced significantly the percentage of latent infection and subsequently preharvest fruit rots. Finally, a disease forecast model to predict blossom blight, caused by M. laxa, was evaluated in the Prefecture of Imathia, Greece. Trees, sprayed according to the model predictions, showed a statistically lower percentage of blighted shoots than those of unsprayed trees.     

A during-infection spray strategy using sulphur compounds,copper, silicon and a new formulation of potassium bicarbonate for primary scab control in organic apple production

In a field experiment conducted over two growing seasons, the effectiveness and phytotoxicity of inorganic fungicides such as sulphur, lime sulphur, copper, silicon and Armicarb (a new formulation of potassium bicarbonate) was compared with water for the control of primary apple scab infections in Belgium on high, medium and low scab-susceptible cultivars (cvs ‘Pinova’, ‘Pirouette’ and ‘Reinette des Capucins’, respectively). In order to drastically reduce the amount of fungicide applied in the orchard, two approaches were used: (1) a strategy involving spraying during the infection process, before fungal penetration and (2) a tunnel sprayer machine for treatment applications. Under field conditions highly favourable for disease, low rates of elemental sulphur (31.8 and 38.6 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 2005 and 2006, respectively) combined with low rates of copper (2.1 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in both years) provided the best scab control and reduced scab severity on the fruits of cv. ‘Pinova’ by 97 and 98% compared with water control in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Lime sulphur was much more effective than wettable sulphur and appeared to be efficient at temperatures below 10°C, but its effectiveness against apple scab decreased if the treatments were applied 12–24 h later than in the ‘during-infection’ spray strategy. Armicarb used alone significantly reduced apple scab severity on the leaves and fruits of the three cultivars compared with the water control. Its effectiveness was as good as wettable sulphur applied using the same timing and dosage. Silicon reduced apple scab on fruits very slightly, but not on leaves. The amounts of wettable sulphur, lime sulphur, copper, silicon and potassium bicarbonate used in this experiment to control apple scab were not phytotoxic, did not increase fruit russet, did increase the yield of each cultivar and did not affect summer density of the beneficial Typhlodromus pyri. The potential and limitations of ‘during-infection’ spraying as a protection strategy against apple scab in organic farming are discussed.     

Integration of partial resistance,plant density and use of fungicide for management of white mould in common bean

In-row plant densities have not been studied for common beans with type II growth habit and contrasting reactions to white mould. Advanced breeding lines with partial resistance or susceptibility to white mould were combined with 4, 7, 10 or 13 plants m⁻¹ and with or without fungicide at a constant between-row spacing of 0.5 m in five sprinkler-irrigated field trials conducted during the autumn–winter season in Brazil. White mould pressures in the trials covered the whole range from zero to moderate/high (46–60% of white mould severity index). In all trials, means of white mould incidence, severity and yield did not vary significantly between 7 and 13 plants m⁻¹ for the partially resistant line, regardless of the fungicide levels. For the susceptible line, 13 plants m⁻¹ increased white mould incidence and severity under moderate disease, regardless of the fungicide levels, and decreased yield compared with 10 plants m⁻¹ when fungicide was applied twice under moderate/high disease pressure. For the susceptible line, 7 or 10 plants m⁻¹ maximized yield in all trials, with or without fungicide applications. The results suggest that the current recommendation of 11–13 plants m⁻¹ could be used for type II beans with partial resistance to white mould in either a conventional or organic system. For susceptible genotypes, 7–10 plants m⁻¹ seems to be the most appropriate in-row plant density. This study may improve the recommendation of in-row plant density for type II beans cultivated under white mould pressure.