Growth and Change in U.S. Cities and Suburbs

Differential rates of growth and decentralization are processes that characterized U.S. urban areas over the past three decades. This paper examines the determinants of growth in cities and suburbs during the 1970s, the 1980s, and the 1990s. The modeling approach adopted in the study allows for simultaneity between population and employment, and between cities and suburbs, while also taking into account a range of other explanatory factors. Results indicate that population and employment growth in cities tend to be jointly determined, but that growth of employment in the suburbs tends to drive growth of suburban population. Results also suggest that suburban and city growth are interrelated, but that the nature of these interrelationships varies over time: suburban growth promoted city growth during the 1970s and 1980s, while city and suburban growth were jointly determined during the 1990s. Other factors that consistently explain variation in city growth include demographics, population density, crime rates, and income inequality. Factors consistently explaining suburban growth include regional location and climate.     

Growth and Location of Economic Activity: The Spatial Dynamics of Industries in Canada 1971–2001

ABSTRACT A growing literature has accumulated that points to the stability of industrial location patterns. Can this be reconciled with spatial dynamics? This article starts with the premise that demonstrable regularities exist in the manner in which individual industries locate (and relocate) over space. For Canada, spatial distributions of employment are examined for seventy‐one industries over a thirty‐year period (1971–2001). Industry data is organized by “synthetic regions” based on urban size and distance criteria. “Typical” location patterns are identified for industry groupings. Industrial spatial concentrations are then compared over time using correlation analysis, showing a high degree of stability. Stable industrial location patterns are not, the article finds, incompatible with differential regional growth. Five spatial processes are identified, driving change. The chief driving force is the propensity of dynamic industries to start up in large metro areas, setting off a process of diffusion (for services) and crowding out (for manufacturing), offset by the centralizing impact of greater consumer mobility and falling transport costs. These changes do not, however, significantly alter the relative spatial distribution of most industries over time.     

Global Markets and the Role of Geographical Proximity in Mexico's Employment Growth

In the context of greater economic integration with global markets and structural economic reforms, this paper analyses regional and sectoral employment growth dynamics in Mexican states between 2004 and 2014. The methodology is based on spatial shift‐share analysis that explicitly considers interregional interactions in employment while assessing potential spillover effects arising from spatial interactions among states and industrial sectors. The results suggest a competitive effect from some industries—such as those related to science and specialized suppliers, intensive scale industries and dominated providers—which led to the formation of industrial corridors of neighboring states that connect the central region with the northeast region of the country. It was also found that proximity to states such as Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, Guanajuato, San Luis Potosi, and Puebla has positively influenced neighboring states in terms of employment growth rates. The results also support the argument of some sort of de‐concentration of economic activity in the capital, Mexico City, toward neighboring states.     

Long-distance commuting and population change in Georgia, 1960-80

The authors investigate counter-urbanization and population change in Georgia between 1960 and 1980 by examining commuting patterns. "The immediate objective is to construct the entire set of commuting fields of both large metropolitan areas to metropolitan and nonmetropolitan employment centers. We then proceed to the relationship between commuting from nonmetropolitan areas to all levels of Georgia's urban hierarchy and population change in these nonmetropolitan settings. By matching population growth and decline areas with explicit employment ties...the nature of the population changes is much better understood." Data from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses for 581 Census County Divisions (CCDs) in Georgia are analyzed. It is concluded that "most nonmetropolitan growth taking place in Georgia is associated with intensification of metropolitan commuting fields along with growth of nonmetropolitan centers and their influence along the very periphery of metropolitan spheres of employment influence. However, a significant share of Georgia's nonmetropolitan population revitalization is explained by growth independent of direct metropolitan influence. It would appear then that nonmetropolitan growth centers are an important part of the basis for population decentralization in Georgia. Metropolitan spill-over alone cannot account for counterurbanization on this portion of the American economic landscape."     

The Growing Economic Specialization of Cities: Disentangling Industrial and Functional Dimensions in the Canadian Urban System, 1971–2006

Decreasing spatial transaction and trade costs have given rise to growing economic specialization of cities. While most studies focus on industries as the primary manifestation of urban specialization, a growing body of literature examines occupational functions, i.e., activities and tasks performed within a given industry or firm. This paper explores how the two dimensions (industries and functions) interact across the urban system and their relative importance over time. Is there a trend toward increasing functional specialization in the Canadian urban system? How much of this phenomenon is attributable to spatial shifts in regional industrial structures as opposed to spatial divisions within industries? The paper uses a unique data set drawn from Statistics Canada Census microdata files between 1971 and 2006. Based on the employed population, the data are spatially organized and cross‐tabulated over industries and occupational groups. A decomposition methodology is used to compare the relative weights of industry and regional (functional) effects in accounting for the changing spatial division of functions across Canadian urban areas. Clear patterns of increasing functional specialization are found within the Canadian urban system. Regional effects are generally greater than industry effects, suggesting that spatial divisions of functions (spatial shifts within industries) are progressing more rapidly than regional shifts in industrial structure.     

Agglomeration of Services in American Metropolitan Areas

The growth of many service industries among American metropolitan areas stem from an eclectic set of forces. These include market penetration effects of increasing importance of services throughout the economy, agglomeration effects in immature and deregulated industries, and institutional and infrastructure constraints. These diverse forces are interpreted as urbanization and localization economies. A cycle of centralization of 27 fast growing service industries is documented for MS As in the period 1977-84. The two agglomeration effects are tested directly, using a power function model that relates employment and establishment growth to MSA size and initial level of employment in a local industry. Localization economies rather than the general advantages of metropolitan size best explain the growth patterns. This result implies that service industrial complexes are rapidly emerging in American metropolitan areas.     

Spatial Patterns in the Economic Development of the Mountain West

ABSTRACT Many counties in the mountainous areas of the western U.S. are experiencing rapid growth in population and income, even though extractive industries that served historically as their primary economic base are in decline. The purpose of this paper is to establish statistically the spatial determinants of population, employment, and income densities in 86 rural mountain counties and any changes in those determinants between 1985 and 1994. The results of this analysis indicate that densities are oriented to regional metropolitan centers and critical amenities such as ski areas, national parks, and universities or colleges. Negatively sloped density gradients with respect to distance from regional metropolitan centers suggest that the densities of settlement patterns beyond metropolitan boundaries are analogous to those within metropolitan areas relative to urban centers. In short, a tension apparently exists in locational choice; residents of the Mountain West desire to live near the beauties and amenities of the mountain landscape but do not want to entirely sever their urban ties. Because amenities are the primary attraction of mountain counties rather than employment in locationally dependent industries, at least some migrants must have relatively footloose forms of income.     

Servicing Our Economy: Producer Service Location and Government Procurement 2004–2010 in the Washington DC Metropolitan Area

Harrington and Campbell (1997) previously illuminated the pattern of producer services' suburbanization in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area between 1970 and 1992. Their results showed producer services growing at a faster rate at locations farther from the central city. We revisit the topic utilizing data from 2004 to 2010, assessing not only changes in the distribution of producer services since their work, but also the impact of massive increases in defense spending on producer services' growth throughout the first decade of the twenty‐first century. Multivariate linear regression is used to estimate per capita growth of producer services employment using six independent variables. Our results reveal producer services employment during the time period has grown significantly more quickly in the urban D.C. core than the outer suburbs, contrary to Harrington and Campbell's research. Additionally, we find per capita producer services employment is self‐limiting over the study period: locations with more producer services employment in 2004 experienced significantly less producer services growth over the period. We find federal procurement has no correlation on producer services overall, with limited effects on some subsectors. Analyzing a select group of producer services subsectors revealed that no sectors followed the overall model exactly, suggesting that targeting producer services for growth must be done carefully. None of our models show employment diversity to be a factor in differentiating economic growth at the intra‐metropolitan level.     

On the Value of Homotheticity in the Shift-Share Framework

The purpose of this paper is to examine the usefulness of homothetic reformulations of the shift-share accounting model to the practitioner of regional growth studies. The reformulations of Esteban-Marquillas (1972) and Arcelus (1984) are examined to determine if they improve the shift-share framework as a means for accounting for regional economic growth or decline. The purpose of the homothetic models is to separate out change in a region's employment (or value added) associated with its prior or base year specialization in particular industries from change associated with changes in the mix of industries that occurred during the period under study. It is contended while the resulting accounts may help in understanding individual industry's growth rates, they shed little light on total regional growth. Indiana employment data from 1977 and 1986 are used to illustrate the arguments.     

Natural Amenities and Rural Development: Understanding Spatial and Distributional Attributes

ABSTRACT Contemporary resource management practice and rural development planning increasingly emphasize the integration of resource extractive industries with non‐market‐based recreational and amenity values. There is a growing empirical literature which suggests that natural amenities impact regional economies through aggregate measures of economic performance such as population, income, and/or employment growth, and housing development. We maintain that assessing the developmental aspects of amenity‐led regional change requires a more thorough focus on alternative measures of economic performance such as income distribution and spatial organization. In the applied research presented here we investigate relationships between amenities and regional economic development indicators. Results suggest mixed and generally insignificant amenity‐based associations which highlight the need for appropriate regional economic modeling techniques that account for often dramatic spatial autocorrelation of natural amenity attributes. We conclude that with respect to amenity driven economic growth and development “place in space” matters.     

Rolling Back the Frontiers of the State: Civil Service Reorganization and Relocation in Britain

Urban and regional studies of service location concentrate on private business and financial services. In contrast, this paper uses the example of the central government civil service in Britain to develop understanding of the spatial dynamics of public services. The paper shows how the location of civil service employment has been influenced by changes in government policy over the last thirty years. It also indicates the way in which the over-concentration of the private sector in London and the South East, throughout the period, has encouraged the decentralization of the civil service from the capital to a variety of provincial locations.     

江西省烟区气候特征分析比较

为了研究江西省烟区的气候特征及其对烟草生产的适宜性,从江西省气象部门系统观测数据中筛选16个产烟县近40年（1970—2010年）数据作为研究对象,重点讨论平均气温、降雨和日照时数3组要素,分析江西省主产烟区的气候特征;并根据江西省烟草生产节令,讨论各县烟草生长季节气候特点及其与国内外主产烟区烟草生产气候条件的异同。统计分析结果表明,江西省烟区气候温暖,年平均气温18.82℃,年平均日照时数1623.11 h,年平均降雨量1632.14 mm,适宜烟草生产。但是,个别年份烟草生长前期可能出现低温,成熟期温度可能过高,或降雨偏多,对烟草生长和烟叶品质不利。江西省烟草生育期和大田期生长期平均温度与美国接近,高于云南玉溪、福建三明、巴西和津巴布韦,但苗期温度最低,成熟期温度最高;平均日照时数略高于福建三明,低于巴西、津巴布韦和云南玉溪,远低于美国;烟草大田期和成熟期平均降雨量与福建三明相当,远高于巴西、津巴布韦、美国和云南玉溪。江西全省气候温暖,日照充足,雨量充沛,无霜期长,能较好地满足烟草生产需求,但也可能出现前期低温寡照、后期高温烈日或暴雨成灾的不利气候。与国内外著名烟区相比,江西省烟区气候条件有其明显的特点,烟草生产上必须注意扬长避短,或采取相应的防范措施。     

Integrating Economic Base Theory with Regional Adjustment Models: The Nonmetropolitan Rocky Mountain West

ABSTRACT Interest in the use of adjustment models has recently increased as analysts have come to see the value of these models in the study of regional growth processes. Adjustment models are especially useful in clarifying the nature and direction of population-employment interactions. However, other models of regional growth suggest that employment should not be treated as a single homogeneous variable, as is the usual assumption in regional adjustment models. This paper looks at the issue of employment disaggregation, and suggests that adjustment models can be alternatively specified by making use of economic base theory to separate employment into at least two broad sectors. Alternative economic base specifications are tested using data for the nonmetropolitan counties (n=254) of the US. Rocky Mountain West during a recent time period. The results show that an economic base version of the adjustment model provides insights to regional change that are not available from the traditional version of the model.     

Changes in growth of plaice Pleuronectes platessa L. and sole Solea solea (L.) in the North Sea

The changes in growth of plaice and sole between 1957 and 1988, as estimated from samples of the commercial fishery and pre-recruit surveys, were analysed in order to study possible density dependent effects. Indices of potentially competitive biomasses of plaice and sole, based on Lloyd's index of mean crowding, were estimated from the average spatial distribution of various age groups during the summer growing period and from the population age structure as estimated by virtual population analysis.Growth of all age groups of sole increased in the 1960s and was stable in the 1970s and 1980s. In plaice only age groups 1 to 3 showed a similar increase in the 1960s, whereas the growth of 1-year-old plaice tended to decrease in the 1980s. Growth did not show a negative correlation with mean crowding, except in age group 1 of plaice and in age group 3+ of sole. It is concluded that these negative correlations do not provide unequivocal evidence for density dependent growth in plaice and sole, since they could equally well be caused by parallel but unrelated trends in time of one or more other factors. The simultaneous increase in growth in the 1960s of age groups of sole and plaice in the southern North Sea, and the absence of such an increase in age groups in the central North Sea, suggests that food availability must have increased in the Southern North Sea. This inference is supported by several macrobenthos studies. Whether the reduced growth of 1-group plaice in the 1980s, when recruitment was well above the average level, is caused by density dependent growth or to a reduced food availability remains an open question.     

Life Sciences and Human Capital: Jobless Growth on Specialised and Local Labour Markets?

Policy makers and scholars often regard the life science industry in general, and bio‐technology in particular, as an engine of future economic growth. The expectation is that growth in the industry will ultimately provide a major boost to national employment numbers. However, in this paper, I find that the Swedish life science industry (encompassing pharmaceutical, bio‐technology, and medical technology firms) accounts for only a small proportion of total employment in Sweden. Given the recent discussion on jobless growth (i.e., economic growth without employment growth), it is here argued that focusing on employment is not necessarily the best policy approach to assessing the impacts of the life science industry on the overall economy. This paper maps and analyses the scope, structure, and geography of the life science industry and its workforce in Sweden using a unique set of data covering approximately 1,200 firms and 53,000 employees. The industry's workforce has education and income levels significantly higher than national averages, and is heavily concentrated in larger metropolitan areas and major university cities. Despite employing relatively few people and being more or less dependent on the existence and success of a few major pharmaceutical firms, the industry may still have a significant impact on the national economy by engendering high levels of education, income, and export revenues, particularly in specific regions.     

Rapid Metropolitan Growth and Community Disparities

Does rapid growth in a metropolitan area amplify or reduce disparities among its differentiated communities? Theoretical economic and political arguments can support both tendencies but lean in the direction of greater differentiation and disparities following a period of rapid regional growth. This article examines uneven population, employment and tax base growth as both causes and consequences of economic and social disparities. The analysis posits that growth bypasses the built-up and lowest income communities in favor of the more distant middle-income suburbs with extensive land for development. The implications of these uneven growth patterns are widening inter-municipal disparities consistent with growth rates. The analysis is carried out for the 365 contiguous jurisdictions in northern New Jersey, a region that experienced modest growth in the 1970s and rapid growth in the 1980s. The findings confirm the uneven pattern of growth and widening disparities during the growth spurt of the 1980s.     

The spatial-temporal evolution of urban development patterns in Chinese cities: Dynamics and interpretations

This paper examines the spatial-temporal evolution of urban spatial structure across 269 Chinese prefectural cities from 2002 to 2019. Our analysis identifies a consistent trend toward a more polycentric configuration in the 25 Chinese mega-cities during this period, primarily due to population growth and a supportive policy environment. However, the evolutionary pathways of small- and medium-sized cities unfolded in a rather complex and diverse manner, with some becoming more polycentric while the majority adhering to a monocentric trajectory. In these cases, population growth is usually associated with a more monocentric pattern, characterized by rapid expansion of the urban core, while polycentric development is primarily attributed to specific spatial policies that support the emergence of subcenters. We conclude that polycentric development, while potentially suitable for mega-cities to alleviate diseconomies of scale, may be less appropriate for small- and medium-sized cities as it may constrain growth associated with agglomeration economies. We suggest that the development and implementation of regional spatial policy should be considerate of local historical paths and contextual factors. Finally, we propose a stylized framework to more accurately reflect the diverse and complex nature of urban spatial structure evolution in Chinese prefectural cities.     

Search Theory and Commuting Behavior

ABSTRACT This paper argues that search theory is a useful addition to the way economists and geographers have approached the study of commuting behavior. This is illustrated by showing that introduction of a spatial element into the standard model of job search leads to the prediction of critical isochrones. Moreover, in the context of an urban economy with decentralized employment, the spatial search model predicts excess commuting. Search theory also suggests that regression toward the mean may play a confusing role in data describing the development of commutes over time, such as has been used in recent empirical work. Finally, the paper develops a simple spatial equilibrium search model in which employers set their wages optimally and searchers determine their reservation wages optimally in mutually consistent ways. The spatial element is crucial for the existence of such an equilibrium in which reservation wages of all searchers and wages set by all employers are identical.     

Feasibility of selection for high weed suppressive ability in soybean: Absence of tradeoffs between rapid initial growth and sustained later growth

In ecology, tradeoff theory has been used to understand differences among plant species in their competitive abilities. In efforts to develop weed-suppressive soybean, we found evidence of a tradeoff between the ability for rapid initial growth and the ability for sustained growth later in the season: early maturing lines displayed more rapid initial growth but ceased growth sooner. Such a tradeoff would increase the difficulty of obtaining a full-season weed-suppressive variety. To determine this tradeoff's existence and severity we examined two possible mechanisms that could lead to it. We tested whether early maturing soybean lines attain higher early relative growth rate than late-maturing soybean lines and whether early maturing soybean lines produce larger seeds by an environmentally-dependent or -independent mechanism. Early maturing lines had higher relative stem elongation rates than late lines but not higher relative dry weight or leaf area increase rates. In more northern locations and in years with shorter growing seasons, early maturity lines produced larger seeds than late maturing lines, implicating an environmentally-dependent rather than -independent mechanism causing seed size differences. Relative to early lines, when late lines mature, temperature and photoperiod are in greater decline, leading to a risk of incomplete seed fill. Resulting seed size decreases could lead to lower initial growth in late maturity lines and thus to an environmental rather than genetic or physiological cause of tradeoff between initial growth and sustained growth later in the season. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.