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1.
AIMS: To determine the frequency with which porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus (PRRSv) would become established in a non-commercial pig herd in New Zealand due to illegal feeding of uncooked food waste containing virus-contaminated pigmeat. To determine the likelihood of a single incursion resulting in a multi-farm outbreak of the disease, and describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of such an outbreak. METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to determine the expected annual frequency of PRRSv infection being initiated in a non-commercial pig herd as a result of inadvertent feeding of pigmeat imported from countries endemically infected with the disease. Once the likelihood of PRRSv becoming established in a single pig herd was determined, stochastic spatially explicit infectious disease modelling software was utilised to model the temporal and spatial characteristics of the resulting epidemic. RESULTS: Assuming the proportion of imported pigmeat remained at current levels, consumption patterns of pigmeat in households in New Zealand remained steady, and limited compliance with recently reintroduced regulations to prevent feeding of uncooked food waste, at least 4.3 pig herds per year were predicted to become infected with PRRSv. Simulation modelling of PRRSv epidemics related to initial infection of a non-commercial farm produced an estimate that 36% of these incursions would spread from the initial herd, and that these outbreaks would involve 93 herds on average in the first year. By increasing the estimated persistence of PRRSv infection in small herds, an average of 205 herds became infected in the first year. CONCLUSIONS: Given a mean of 4.3 infected premises per year and a 36% probability of infection spreading beyond the initial infected herd, there was a 95% likelihood of a multi-farm PRRS outbreak occurring within 3 years. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Introduction of PRRSv through importation of virus-contaminated pigmeat presents a high risk for establishment of the disease in the pig industry in New Zealand.  相似文献   

2.
CASE HISTORY: Investigations were conducted to determine the cause of an acute, multi-farm outbreak of porcine respiratory disease that included diarrhoea and subsequent loss of body condition in affected pigs. A definition for post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) including both clinical and pathological features, previously developed for the pig industry in New Zealand, was applied to the current outbreak. In addition to self-reporting by owners of affected farms, local veterinarians, disease and epidemiology consultants, and animal health officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) were involved in conducting farm visits and submission of diagnostic specimens.

CLINICAL FINDINGS AND DIAGNOSIS: Pathogens known to be endemic in the pig industry in New Zealand as well as likely exotic diseases were excluded as causative agents of the outbreak. Clinical signs including dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition were consistent with the New Zealand case definition for PMWS. Interstitial pneumonia, pulmonary oedema, generalised lymph-node enlargement, and presence of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) inclusion bodies were consistently identified in affected pigs. Classical swine fever virus (CSFv), Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv), and Influenza virus were ruled out, using molecular and traditional virological techniques. Spread of the disease between farms was hypothesised to be facilitated by locally migrating flocks of black-backed seagulls. The original source of the disease incursion was not identified.

DIAGNOSIS: Based on the consistent presence of circovirusassociated lesions in lymphoid tissues in combination with generalised enlargement of lymph nodes, histiocytic interstitial pneumonia, clinical wasting, and poor response to antibiotic therapy, a diagnosis of PMWS was made.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: PMWS should be considered in the differential diagnoses of sudden onset of respiratory dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition in young pigs in New Zealand pig herds.  相似文献   

3.
CASE HISTORY: Investigations were conducted to determine the cause of an acute, multi-farm outbreak of porcine respiratory disease that included diarrhoea and subsequent loss of body condition in affected pigs. A definition for post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) including both clinical and pathological features, previously developed for the pig industry in New Zealand, was applied to the current outbreak. In addition to self-reporting by owners of affected farms, local veterinarians, disease and epidemiology consultants, and animal health officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) were involved in conducting farm visits and submission of diagnostic specimens. CLINICAL FINDINGS AND DIAGNOSIS: Pathogens known to be endemic in the pig industry in New Zealand as well as likely exotic diseases were excluded as causative agents of the outbreak. Clinical signs including dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition were consistent with the New Zealand case definition for PMWS. Interstitial pneumonia, pulmonary oedema, generalised lymph-node enlargement, and presence of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) inclusion bodies were consistently identified in affected pigs. Classical swine fever virus (CSFv), Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv), and Influenza virus were ruled out, using molecular and traditional virological techniques. Spread of the disease between farms was hypothesised to be facilitated by locally migrating flocks of black-backed seagulls. The original source of the disease incursion was not identified. DIAGNOSIS: Based on the consistent presence of circovirus-associated lesions in lymphoid tissues in combination with generalised enlargement of lymph nodes, histiocytic interstitial pneumonia, clinical wasting, and poor response to antibiotic therapy, a diagnosis of PMWS was made. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: PMWS should be considered in the differential diagnoses of sudden onset of respiratory dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition in young pigs in New Zealand pig herds.  相似文献   

4.
An indirect ELISA test was developed as a novel tool aimed at monitoring the herd infection status of swine herds. Meat juice samples from pig carcasses were analysed for the presence of antibodies against porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV). A study of samples from herds with known PRRS status was undertaken. The PRRS status of the herds was evaluated based on the analysis of blood samples by another serological test (blocking ELISA) capable of differentiating between infection with PRRSV of the American type and European type. The specificity of the indirect ELISA test on meat juice samples was 0.98. The sensitivity of the test depended on the type of the PRRSV strain involved. The apparent prevalence in herds infected with the American type of PRRSV was 0.44. The apparent prevalence in herds infected with the European type of PRRSV was 0.64. Herd level sampling and herd level criteria for assessing the PRRS status of herds by the new test were developed. Herds were classified as PRRS negative or PRRS seropositive based on 10 meat juice samples collected randomly at slaughter throughout a 3-month-period. Herd PRRS status classification by the indirect ELISA was validated in 47 herds by collection of blood samples from the herds. Eighteen herds were classified as PRRS negative by both test systems. Twenty-nine herds were classified as PRRS seropositive by both test systems. Acceptable herd classification was achieved using this test.  相似文献   

5.
AIMS: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of a bulk tank milk (BTM) antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect likely infection of a dairy herd with bovine vi- ral diarrhoea virus (BVDV). The ELISA was subsequently used to estimate the prevalence of likely infected herds in parts of the North Island of New Zealand.

METHODS: BTM samples from 724 randomly selected dairy herds in the Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Northland regions of New Zealand were tested for BVDV antibodies. From this group, 20 herds were again randomly selected from each of the quartiles of the ELISA percentage inhibition (%INH) result. From each participant herd, serum from 15 randomly selected calves aged 6–18 months and 15 cows was collected and tested using an indirect blocking ELISA for BVDV antibodies.

RESULTS: Among serum results from calves from 50 herds available for analysis, 34 (68%) herds were classified as likely non-infected (0-3 seropositive among 15 calves) and 16 (32%) as likely infected (5–15 seropositive among 15 calves). Receiver- operator characteristic (ROC) analysis identified an optimal cut-off for BTM of 80%INH associated with 81% sensitivity and 91% specificity for likely herd infection. The prevalence of BVDV antibodies in cows within herds and %INH for BVDV in bulk milk were positively correlated (p<0.01). The association between bulk milk %INH and the prevalence of BVDV antibodies in calves was stronger than the same association in cows. Based on the threshold of 80%INH, the 95% confidence interval (CI) for prevalence of likely infection in the 724 herds in the Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Northland regions of New Zealand was 12–17%. Vaccination against BVDV was not significantly associated with the likely infection status of the herd based on prevalence of BVDV antibodies among calves.

CONCLUSION: An ELISA test result for BVDV antibodies in BTM ≥80%INH can be used as a threshold to indicate the presence of likely infection with BVDV in dairy herds in New Zealand, with 81% sensitivity and 91% specificity.  相似文献   

6.
AIM: To examine risk factors that could have played a role in the 2010 porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) outbreak in Yenhung district, Quangninh province, North-Vietnam, with the purpose of establishing why existing control measures implemented after previous outbreaks had failed to prevent further outbreaks.

METHODS: A case-control study was carried out in Yenhung district. Data were obtained by an interview-based questionnaire survey. The sampling unit was households, which equated to small-scale pig farms. A total of 150 case and 150 control households were selected at communes affected by the 2010 PRRS epidemic during April to June. Risk factors were analysed using binary logistic regression and unconditional multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS: Households infected with PRRS were significantly associated with multiple variables belonging to three main groups: (1) location of the farms: i.e. farms positioned <1,000?m from a pig abattoir or within 500?m of local markets or 100?m of main roads; (2) farm management: i.e. where there was non-application of weekly farm disinfection, feeding uncooked swill, new introduction of purchased pigs without isolation, or usage of water from irrigation systems for raising pigs; (3) people and animal contact: i.e. where households kept animals with either no confinement or partial confinement, had visits by family members to other affected farms or had frequent visits by neighbours. The use of water from irrigation systems was found to be the risk factor most strongly associated with infected households in the 2010 outbreak (OR=22; 95% CI=12–42).

CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the epidemiology of PRRS in Quangninh province was linked to sociological and cultural practices, and that effective PRRS control needs an integrated approach coupled with behavioural changes in the pig raising practices of the general public. Failure to recognise this could explain why further outbreaks have occurred.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

AIM: To investigate the cause of classical swine fever (CSF) virus-seropositive animals in a nucleus pig-breeding herd in New Zealand, where porcine circovirus-associated disease had been diagnosed.

CASE HISTORY AND CLINICAL FINDINGS: An exotic disease investigation was undertaken to exclude CSF and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) on a nucleus pig-breeding herd comprising approximately 300 breeding sows, 1,000 weaners, and 650 grower pigs. The herd was experiencing poor reproductive performance in sows, and breeding records showed a declining farrowing rate attributable to a single manager. The growing pigs (10–15 weeks old) were experiencing respiratory disease and wasting, and the mortality rate by pen varied between 9 and 20%. Post-mortem changes in affected grower pigs were consistent with circovirus-associated diseases.

DIAGNOSTIC TESTING: Serological screening using an IDEXX-ELISA gave negative results for PRRS virus antibodies, but two grower pigs and one sow tested positive for CSF virus antibodies. These three seropositive animals remained positive to CSF virus, using three commercial ELISA test kits, over 27 weeks. A newly developed virus neutralisation test (VNT), using a New Zealand isolate of border disease (BD) virus, demonstrated that the seropositive pig sera had higher antibody titres to BD virus than to bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) virus and CSF virus.

PCR performed on tonsil, kidney, ileum and spleen gave negative results for CSF virus, and histopathology on lymph nodes, intestine, lung, kidney, liver and brain showed no evidence of the disease. Virus isolation performed on a number of samples was negative.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The seropositive samples for CSF virus found in this investigation were likely to be a cross reaction to a pestivirus other than CSF virus. The finding of a possible endemic pestivirus capable of being transmitted between sheep and pigs on this farm may explain findings from previous serological survey work in New Zealand, and supports experience elsewhere, where BD virus was found to be the predominant ruminant pestivirus infecting pigs. The results show that pestivirus cross reactivity can result in unexpectedly high titres, and that testing with a full set of (local) pestiviruses is necessary to reach the correct conclusion. The investigation has direct relevance where pig herds with a low seroprevalence are encountered during surveillance for CSF.  相似文献   

8.
Understanding the spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in pig populations is essential to the development of effective PRRS prevention and control strategies. Moreover, knowledge of the field dynamics of PRRSV in pigs will provide insights into the clinical relevance of PRRS, and will enable the targeting of interventions. This review of PRRSV includes discussion on the occurrence of outbreaks, the persistence of infection and the fade-out of infection in Dutch breeding herds. The dynamic character of PRRSV infections in endemically infected herds and the relevance of the disease under Dutch field conditions are also highlighted. Furthermore, several strategies aimed at controlling the spread of PRRSV are discussed.  相似文献   

9.
ABSTRACT

Aims: To investigate the seroprevalence of infection with bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) virus among 75 beef herds and seroconversion in cattle during early pregnancy, and to determine the practices and opinions of farmers towards BVD control and their association with real and perceived herd serological status.

Methods: Blood samples were collected before mating in 75 beef herds across New Zealand from 15 unvaccinated heifers that had delivered their first calf that season. Serum samples were tested for BVD antibodies using ELISA individually, and after pooling samples for each farm. Animals that were antibody-negative were retested at either pregnancy diagnosis or weaning. Farmers were asked to complete a detailed survey about herd demographics, BVD testing and vaccination practices, and opinions towards national BVD control.

Results: Based on the pooled serum antibody ELISA results, there were 28/75 (37%) negative herds, 15/75 (20%) suspect herds, and 32/75 (43%) positive herds. Of 1,117 animals sampled 729 (65.3%) tested negative for BVD virus antibodies; when retested, 47/589 (8.0%) animals from 13/55 (24%) herds had seroconverted. Among 71 famers providing survey responses 11 (15%) believed their herd was infected with BVD, 24 (34%) were unsure and 36 (51%) did not think their herd was infected. Only 19/71 (18%) farmers had performed any BVD testing within the past 5 years and 50/70 (71%) had not vaccinated any cattle for BVD. Support for national BVD eradication programme was strong in 51/71 (56%) respondents, but the biggest challenge to BVD control was considered to be famer compliance. Compared to farmers who did not think their herd was infected, more farmers who thought BVD was present in their herds had previously tested for BVD, would consider testing all replacement calves, and would support establishing a national BVD database; fewer would consider purchasing BVD tested or vaccinated cattle only.

Conclusions and clinical relevance: Only 15% of the beef farmers in this study believed their herds were infected with BVD virus and few of them had undertaken BVD screening. Nevertheless many were supportive of implementing a national BVD control programme. It is likely that the lack of farmer awareness around BVD and the failure of farmers to recognise the potential impacts in their herds are hindering progress in controlling the disease in New Zealand. There are opportunities for New Zealand veterinarians to be more proactive in helping beef farmers explore BVD management options.  相似文献   

10.
AIMS: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of a bulk tank milk (BTM) antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect likely infection of a dairy herd with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV). The ELISA was subsequently used to estimate the prevalence of likely infected herds in parts of the North Island of New Zealand. METHODS: BTM samples from 724 randomly selected dairy herds in the Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Northland regions of New Zealand were tested for BVDV antibodies. From this group, 20 herds were again randomly selected from each of the quartiles of the ELISA percentage inhibition (%INH) result. From each participant herd, serum from 15 randomly selected calves aged 6-18 months and 15 cows was collected and tested using an indirect blocking ELISA for BVDV antibodies. RESULTS: Among serum results from calves from 50 herds available for analysis, 34 (68%) herds were classified as likely non-infected (0-3 seropositive among 15 calves) and 16 (32%) as likely infected (5-15 seropositive among 15 calves). Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis identified an optimal cut-off for BTM of 80%INH associated with 81% sensitivity and 91% specificity for likely herd infection. The prevalence of BVDV antibodies in cows within herds and %INH for BVDV in bulk milk were positively correlated (p<0.01). The association between bulk milk %INH and the prevalence of BVDV antibodies in calves was stronger than the same association in cows. Based on the threshold of 80%INH, the 95% confidence interval (CI) for prevalence of likely infection in the 724 herds in the Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Northland regions of New Zealand was 12-17%. Vaccination against BVDV was not significantly associated with the likely infection status of the herd based on prevalence of BVDV antibodies among calves. CONCLUSION: An ELISA test result for BVDV antibodies in BTM >/=80%INH can be used as a threshold to indicate the presence of likely infection with BVDV in dairy herds in New Zealand, with 81% sensitivity and 91% specificity.  相似文献   

11.
Extract

In the paper by EJ Neumann, RS Morris and M Sujau published in the New Zealand Veterinary Journal 55, 326–336, 2007, entitled, “Analysis of the risk of introduction and spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus through importation of raw pigmeat into New Zealand”, the authors sought to analyse the risk of the introduction and spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus through importation of raw pigmeat. As cautioned by the International Committee of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), any epidemiological model ultimately depends for its validity on the accuracy and completeness of the data underpinning it.  相似文献   

12.
AIMS: To review the number of microbiologically-confirmed cases of Johne's disease in farmed deer since 2000, and determine the prevalence of the bovine and ovine subtypes of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (M. paratuberculosis), using a highly specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test on samples from infected herds. METHODS: The number of cases of M. paratuberculosis in farmed deer identified by culture or IS900 PCR was documented. A highly specific PCR test was applied to subtype M. paratuberculosis from BACTEC 12B cultures selected on the basis of one culture per deer herd, to give a wide coverage of herds in New Zealand. RESULTS: From January 2001 to October 2005, M. paratuberculosis was isolated from 1,141 farmed deer, and has now been identified by microbiological testing in over 600 deer herds in New Zealand. The bovine subtype of M. paratuberculosis was shown by a highly specific PCR test to be present in 91/95 herds examined; the ovine subtype was found in the remaining four herds. CONCLUSIONS: Since 2000, there has been a substantial increase in both the number of microbiologically-confirmed cases of Johne's disease in farmed deer and the number of infected herds. Johne's disease is now widespread and common in deer herds throughout New Zealand. Whilst the bovine subtype of M. paratuberculosis predominates in deer herds in New Zealand in which Johne's disease has been confirmed, the occasional finding of the ovine subtype highlights the need to consider both sheep and cattle as potential sources of infection for farmed deer.  相似文献   

13.
In 2001, the first case of Postweaning Multisystemic Wasting Syndrome (PMWS) was reported in the Danish pig population. During subsequent years, the number of affected farms increased exponentially. The aim of this study was to determine how this increase influenced the use of antimicrobials between 2002 and 2004. We used national register data of herd characteristics, antimicrobial usage and disease occurrence. The analysis included data on antimicrobial usage in 3371 pig herds with weaners and 7434 pig herds with finishers, which accounted for 56 and 82% of the national amount of antimicrobials prescribed to weaners (prescribed by 347 practitioners) and finishers (prescribed by 522 practitioners), respectively.The estimation of the effect of PMWS was done by comparing the amount of antimicrobials (measured as Animal Defined Daily Doses (ADDkg) used per pig-day at risk each month in each herd) used in herds before and after an outbreak of PMWS, and by comparing the amount of antimicrobials used in herds experiencing PMWS with the amount of antimicrobials used in herds not experiencing PMWS. The effects were estimated in a three-level (veterinarian/herd/study-month) linear mixed regression model with an autoregressive correlation of order 1 (AR1).We found that after a herd had experienced an outbreak of PMWS, the antimicrobial usage in weaners was increased for a year. During the first 3 months post outbreak the usage increased by 22%, followed by an increase of 7% during the next 4th to 12th month when compared to the pre-outbreak usage. There was a significant variation between herds in this effect. Additionally, in herds experiencing an outbreak of PMWS, the usage of antimicrobials before the outbreak was 37 and 19% higher in herds with weaners and finishers, respectively, compared to herds not experiencing PMWS.Generalisation of the results to the entire Danish pig population indicated that the increase of PMWS infected herds from almost zero to about 20% during a 4-year period resulted in a national increase of 4–5% in antimicrobials usage in weaners. The effect of PMWS on usage of antimicrobials in finishers was unclear.  相似文献   

14.
The purposes of this study were to describe the clinical signs observed in PRRS positive herds during a porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) outbreak in Ontario and to determine associations between these clinical signs and herd demographics and PRRS control strategies. All PRRS polymerase chain reaction-(PCR)-positive submissions to a diagnostic laboratory between September 1, 2004 and August 31, 2007 were identified (n = 1864). After meeting eligibility requirements and agreeing to voluntary study participation, producers from 455 of these submissions were surveyed for information on clinical signs observed in their herds, herd demographics, and PRRS control strategies used in their herds at the time that the PCR-positive samples were taken. Larger herd size was associated with an increased risk of reporting abortion, weakborn piglets, off-feed sows, and sow mortality in sow herds, and with an increased risk of reporting mortality in finishing herds. When disease control strategies were examined, use of a commercial PRRS vaccine in sows and gilts was associated with a decreased risk of reporting weakborn pigs and high pre-weaning mortality, while the use of serum inoculation in breeding animals was associated with an increased risk of reporting off-feed sows and sow mortality. Providing biofeedback of stillborn/mummified piglets, placenta or feces to gilts was associated with an increased risk of reporting respiratory disease and mortality in finishing pigs while all-in/all-out flow in farrowing rooms was associated with an increased risk of reporting sow mortality and weakborn piglets.  相似文献   

15.
谭涛 《猪业科学》2021,38(8):51-59
猪繁殖与呼吸综合征(PRRS)俗称猪蓝耳病,是由PRRS病毒(PRRSV)引起的传染病,分为欧洲型和北美型,是目前养猪业最重要的猪病之一。PRRS每年给美国养猪业造成的损失为6.64亿美元(约40亿人民币),中国的养猪量数倍于美国,因此该病在中国造成的损失应该远大于美国。该病对母猪群的影响主要是降低分娩率,降低产仔数和窝均断奶仔猪数。我国的PRRS以北美型为主,感染后会引起母猪群的繁殖障碍,仔猪、生长育肥猪群的呼吸道问题。2006年我国暴发了由变异株PRRSV引起的高致病性PRRS,该病在全国范围内流行,重创了中国养猪业[1]。2013年以后,类NADC-30毒株开始在国内逐渐扩散传播,各种重组毒株也不断出现,PRRS的防控变得更加复杂[2-3]。PRRSV容易变异、毒株多样、感染时间长、防控难度较大。猪群感染PRRS后会造成免疫抑制,易出现各种混合感染和继发感染,这增加防控的难度。文章回顾了PRRS的临床症状、病理变化、病原特性、传播途径、诊断方法与防控措施。在PRRS的防控上,猪场需要良好的生物安全、科学的疫苗免疫与正确的药物方案。文章还探讨了在发生了PRRS感染的猪场,使用替米考星进行控制的效果。  相似文献   

16.
This paper reports on a retrospective study of the antibody responses to structural and non-structural proteins of FMD virus O Taiwan 97 in six pig herds in Taiwan in the year after the 1997 Taiwanese FMD outbreak. All herds were vaccinated against FMD after the outbreak as part of the countrywide control program. Three of the herds had confirmed FMD infections (herds N, O and P) and three herds remained non-infected (herds K, L and M). The serum neutralizing antibody titers and the non-structural protein ELISA (NSP) antibody responses in sows and 1-month-old pigs in the infected herds were higher than in the non-infected herds, but over time a number of positive NSP reactors were detected. From the serological studies and the herd monitoring and investigations it was considered that the FMD NSP positive reactors may not have constituted a true reservoir of FMD virus infection especially in herds where susceptible pigs were no longer present post-exposure or post-vaccination. Pigs vaccinated with an unpurified FMD type O vaccines being used at that time also showed false positive responses for NSP antibodies.  相似文献   

17.
Results of national serological surveys for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) conducted in Switzerland in 2001 and 2004 were analyzed. In 2001, 41,124 breeding sows from 2,540 herds out of 6,406 were sampled, and in 2004, 7,498 animals were sampled from 1,074 herds out of 5,320. All serum samples were tested for PRRS using an ELISA developed at the Institute of Virology and Immunoprophylaxis (IVI), Switzerland with a sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of 94 and 97%, respectively. Positive samples were re-tested with a commercial ELISA (IDEXX) with Se of 100% and Sp of 99%. Samples positive in the second test were confirmed with the fluorescent antibody test (FAT). A stochastic model using data from the main survey conducted in 2001 was done to verify whether the sampling scheme used could detect at least one infected herd with 99% confidence level if the herd designed prevalence was at 0.1 or 0.2%. Additionally, a Bayesian approach was conducted to calculate the post-survey probability of freedom from PRRS using data from the 2001 and 2004 surveys. A Monte Carlo simulation with 5000 iteration was run for each model. Eleven samples in 2001 and six in 2004, all from different farms, could not be conclusively confirmed as negative by the FAT. All other samples were negative. Truly infected animals and herds were not predicted by a stochastic model at the 99% confidence level and 0.1% herd prevalence using data from the 2001 survey. However, it was demonstrated that the prior probability of freedom from PRRS increased from 89.3 to 99.2% after the 2001 survey. Upon completion of the 2004 survey, the probability of freedom from PRRS reached a value of 99.7%. Based on our results, we could conclude that the pig industry in Switzerland is free of PRRS virus with this level of confidence. Restricted import activities over the last decades are a possible explanation for the continuing absence of PRRS-infection in the Swiss swine population. Import requirements defined by the pig industry minimize the risk of introduction of PRRS-infected animals in the future.  相似文献   

18.
In July 2007, PRRS was detected for the first time in Sweden. A total of eight positive herds were identified and various measures were taken to eradicate the disease, including restrictions and slaughter of infected herds. Subsequently, both active and passive surveillance activities were undertaken. This study describes stochastic scenario-tree modelling of all the various surveillance system components, to estimate the current probability that Sweden is free from PRRS. The model includes all actions taken after the first positive herd was detected. The surveillance system components included in the model were as follows: investigations undertaken in association with the outbreak, a serological study based on samples collected at slaughter, samples collected in the national PRRS surveillance programme and passive clinical surveillance. The probability of freedom was estimated in time steps of 1 month, from July to December 2007. After each time step, the calculated posterior probability of freedom from the previous month, combined with the probability of introduction, was used as a prior probability for the next month.The result from the model showed a 99.8% probability that Sweden was free from PRRS at the end of December 2007. The estimated total sensitivity of the surveillance system varied between 81.2% and 94.3% and was highest during the first months after the outbreak. For sensitivity analysis purposes, the model was also applied using higher risks of introduction. However, this did not make considerable difference to the final estimates.  相似文献   

19.
An outbreak of mycobacteriosis in swine herds in southwestern Norway from autumn 1986 to 1990 is described. The prevalence of generalised infection in the pigs was higher than usual during the outbreak resulting in the condemnation of 0.3% of the swine carcasses in 1987. A case-control study involving 35 herds (17 herds with more than two tuberculous pigs at slaughter and 18 herds with no evidence of infection at slaughter) showed that an increased risk of infection was linked to combined production with sows and slaughter pigs in the same herd. The presence of birds in the pig house was another contributing risk factor. The standard of the ventilation system, covering of the feed tank, cleaning of the house less frequently than once a year and use of litter were not associated with tuberculous lesions.  相似文献   

20.
In 1992, the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) of European type (PRRSV-EU) was introduced in Denmark. By 1996, the virus had spread to approximately 25% of the Danish herds. In January 1996, a modified-live vaccine based on the American type of the virus (PRRSV-US) was used in replacement boars for Danish artificial insemination (AI) centres and from July 1996, the vaccine was used in PRRSV-EU infected herds for prevention of disease. Soon after vaccine introduction, PRRSV non-infected herds experienced outbreaks of disease due to infection with PRRSV-US. In this study, we investigated the risk factors (biosecurity level, animals, exposure from PRRSV-US-infected neighbour herds, semen, herd size, pig density and herd density) for infection with PRRSV-US in a cohort of 1071 sow herds; we used a nested case-control study. The retrospective observation period lasted from June 1996 (when they all were non-infected) to October 1997. Seventy-three non-vaccinated, closed sow herds became infected with the vaccine strain during this period. Each case herd was matched with two control herds from the cohort (controls had not been infected at the time of infection in the case herds). The data were analysed using a Cox-regression model. The hazard of infection increased significantly with exposure from PRRSV-US-infected neighbouring herds, purchase of animals from herds incubating PRRSV-US infection, increasing herd size and purchase of semen from boars at PRRSV-US-infected AI centres. The results are consistent with the modified-live vaccine strain spread to other herds by trade with animals and semen and by neighbour (area) transmission. We suggest that virus spread by aerosols was a frequent mode of transmission.  相似文献   

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