The challenges of effective model scoping: A FLORES case study from the mafungautsi forest margins,Zimbabwe

This paper explores the challenge of defining the scope of a systems model, emphasising three aspects: boundary, granularity and conceptual scope. The significance of these is illustrated by reference to a model of land-use decisions made in villages bordering on the Mafungautsi forest in Zimbabwe. The purpose of this model was to help policy players (Forestry Commission staff, non-governmental organisations, researchers and local people) to understand the impact of policy interventions on local people’s livelihoods. Scoping decisions that were made in building the Mafungautsi model were deliberately liberal, to encompass the interests of all participants in the modelling process. These decisions now present a range of serious challenges: the difficulty of model calibration, the computational expense of running simulations, and the difficulty for new users to understand the model. Facilitators of modelling teams need to consider the serious implications of giving everyone what they want and including all participants’ ideas in a model. In the long run, it may be better to be tough and reject many suggestions at the outset. The former approach is unlikely to lead to a tractable model, while the latter may ultimately offer greater satisfaction for all. We are grateful to the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the European Community for financial support of this project. Thanks also to all of the ACM team who have contributed ideas on the process and content of the modelling work and who make it fun to undertake collaborative research. Thanks also to the participants in the Zimbabwe FLAC workshops for their input into the specification of the Mafungautsi model. Finally thanks to Robert Muetzelfeldt, Jasper Taylor, Jonathan Massheder, Fergus Sinclair and Jerry Vanclay for helping us to ride on the FLORES bandwagon.     

Unlocking complexity: The importance of idealisation in simulation modelling

Idealisation is the process of finding simple representations of the real-world whilst conceptualising a model. There are three ways to limit complication in a model of a complex real-world: byfocussing the scope of the modelling process onto a clearly defined issue; byidealising elements of the real-world during model conceptualisation; and bysimplifying the implemented simulation program. Careful idealisation has the greatest potential for increasing model tractability whilst generating insights during the model design process. The Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System (FLORES) project deals with social forest landscapes which are highly complex. Benefits of idealisation are demonstrated using six examples from this modelling work. These examples encompass issues dealing with land tenure, forest management, economic values, social diversity, communication and collaboration. Each example illustrates a different method to achieve an idealisation which yields insights relevant for policy players. A number of lessons about idealisation are also identified: (1) sometimes it is only possible to recognise what is key by omitting it; (2) an effective idealisation is not just achieved by leaving things out, or adding them back in; it can also be achieved by restructuring the representation; (3) it is important challenge the use of different units where consistency is possible; (4) it is easier to keep a simple model simple, than to make simple modifications to a large model. Similarly, it is easier to generate insights with a simple concept for a sub-model than with a simple modification to an existing model; and (5) even the most useful idealisations may have a limited shelf-life. Thanks to Bill Ritchie, Carol Colfer, Bruce Campbell, Herry Purnomo, Wavell Standa-Gunda, Richard Dudley and Jerry Vanclay for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper, and to all the other Florists for engaging in debate about this modelling experience. We are grateful to the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the European Community for financial support of this project.     

ZimFlores: A model to advise co-management of the mafungautsi forest in Zimbabwe

ZimFlores (version 4) is the outcome of a participatory modelling process and seeks to provide a shared factual basis for exploring land-use options for the communal lands surrounding the Mafungautsi forest. The ZimFlores experience underscores the importance of a sharing a common problem and a common location in which all participants have an interest. Participatory modelling has proved an effective way to consolidate a diverse body of knowledge and make it accessible. Results demonstrate the importance of model outputs that are diagnostic, and which offer insights into the issues under consideration. Many people contributed in many ways to help realize ZimFlores. Some of the people who contributed include Elias Ayuk, Ivan Bond, Ephraim Chabayanzara, Muyeye Chambwera, Vijay Datadin, Wil de Jong, Peter Frost, James Gambiza, Jode Garbe, Peter Gondo, Emmanuel Guveya, Chiedza Gwata, John Hansell, Gideon Kamumvuri, Godwin Kowero, Dominic Kwesha, Chris Legg, Tim Lynam, Hilton Madevu, Simba Mandota, Everisto Mapedza, Frank Matose, Gutura Matoso, Chipo Mlambo, John Mudekwe, Maxwell Mukwekwerere, Dorcas Mungwari, Tendayi Mutimukuru, Mkhululi Ngwenya, Richard Nyirenda, Bill Ritchie, Lizwelabo Sibanda, Manasa Sibanda, Fergus Sinclair, Jivas Sithutha, Jasper Taylor, Michael Thomas, Zivanai Tsvuura and Steve Twomlow. We are grateful to the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the European Community for financial support of this project.     

Collaborative modelling to support forest management: Qualitative systems analysis at Lumut Mountain,Indonesia

Complex ecological and social processes in tropical forests imply that observations on any single element of the system do not provide an adequate basis for sound forest management. A collaborative modelling process engaging all relevant stakeholders led to a shared understanding of how to manage forests around Lumut Mountain, Pasir District, East Kalimantan. The model was developed by identifying forest management objectives, building a conceptual model using a causal loop diagram, and defining performance indicators. The model was then used to explore future scenarios to improve the well-being of local stakeholders while maintaining forest quality. Finally, roles needed to implement the chosen scenarios were defined and assigned to individual participants. This qualitative modelling process was found to be an effective way to assist the development of a collaborative action plan. The authors wish to acknowledge that this paper has been produced with financial support from Department for International Development of UK, the Asian Development Bank under RETA Grant 5812 and CIFOR. The views expressed contained herein are solely of the authors and do not necessarily reflect official views of the donors or of CIFOR. The authors would like to thank Richard Dudley and Bruce Campbell for their inputs to the paper.     

Modelling ozone fluxes to forests for risk assessment: status and prospects

? Risk assessment of ozone effects on forests is gradually moving from concentration-based exposure metrics to a more complicated approach that requires modelling of ozone fluxes to trees.

? This study reviews the status of the DO₃SE stomatal flux model employed within the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, describing a range of applications and identifying major research needs, especially in the context of support that could be provided by the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests.

? The most urgent development need for DO₃SE is the modelling of the soil moisture status and its effect on stomatal conductance. Furthermore, the data related to the physical characteristics and the seasonal dynamics of physiological activity of vegetation continue to pose problems.

? There is a clear need for more extensive validation of models and risk estimates using more rigorous statistical procedures and comparisons with flux networks and satellites.

? The current large-scale forest monitoring activities provide only limited possibilities for flux modelling, but could be enhanced by introducing a new monitoring strategy outlined here.

     

落实"以竹代塑"倡议助力竹业提速增效

2022年6月24日,全球发展高层对话会在金砖国家领导人第14次会晤期间举行,国际竹藤组织提出的“以竹代塑”倡议被列入会议成果清单。为积极响应“以竹代塑”倡议,国际竹藤中心和国际竹藤组织于2022年7月28日启动了“以竹代塑创新产品研发和应用”项目,该项目将重点研究和开发竹质吸管、竹缠绕复合管及模压异型构件、竹浆模塑包埋盒的关键技术,并评估这些竹产品的性能。通过实施该项目,将进一步拓宽竹材应用领域,助推竹产业转型升级。文章详细阐述了项目启动的背景、主要内容、预期目标及前景。     

Modelling interactions amongst people and forest resources at the landscape scale

FLORES, the Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System, is a framework to facilitate quantitative modelling of ecological, economic and social issues at the landscape scale. This issue ofSmall-scale Forest Economics, Management and Policy describes the evolution of FLORES from a concept to a series of models calibrated for diverse locations, and documents the lessons learned. The idea to construct and use landscape-scale models of the forest frontier, based on simulating household decisions and land use at a spatial scale close to the field level, arose from a desire to add rigour to land-use policy research at CIFOR, the Center for International Forestry Research (Vanclay 1995). This simulation modelling approach to addressing interdisciplinary issues, where people are strongly interacting with forest resources, became known as FLORES, the Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System (Vanclay 1998). Muetzelfeldtet al. (1998) constructed a simple prototype of a FLORES model to illustrate the concept and demonstrate the ability of a system-dynamics modelling environment to animate such a model (Muetzelfeldt and Taylor 1997, 2001, Muetzelfeldt and Massheder 2003). In 1999, FLORES became a reality, when 50 scientists from diverse disciplines met in Bukittinggi, Indonesia to construct the first FLORES model styled on this prototype (CIFOR 1999, Vanclayet al. 2003). The research reported in this special issue was made possible by generous financial support from the Department for International Development (UK), the European Community, the Asian Development Bank (under RETA 5812) and the Center for International Forestry Research. The views expressed herein are those of the authors alone. We would like to thank the following people who have assisted in the production of this special issue by acting as anonymous referees for these and other papers: Andy Warner, Brendan Moran, Bruno Verbist, Chris Dake, Chris Legg, Doug Sheil, Euan Mason, Francois Bousquet, Frank Vanclay, Geoff Slaughter, James Gambiza, John Herbohn, John Poulsen, Jungho Suh, Mike Spilsbury, Paul Phillips, Paul van Gardingen, Phil Norman, Philip Nyhus, Roger Wheate, Ross Sigley, Steve Harrison and Tom Evans. Thanks also to the editorial staff, especially Steve Harrison, John Herbohn and Jungho Suh, for making this special issue possible.     

Modelling the effects of forest landscape dynamics on focal species in Glen Affric, northern Scotland

Current conservation policies promote expansion of semi-naturalwoodland in order to offset effects of past loss and fragmentation.However, conflicts of interest may occur when such expansionwould be at the expense of open habitats considered to haveconservation value in their own right. Landscape modelling ispresented as a method that may prove useful in resolving complexland use issues such as this. An example is given of a modellingsystem that uses forest dynamics modelling, focal species andhabitat network analysis to address landscape change issuesin Glen Affric, a key area for biodiversity conservation innorthern Scotland. The results suggest that a dispersed patternof woodland expansion may offer the best chances of achievinga balance between woodland and open ground in a single catchment.However, there are high levels of uncertainty associated withboth model input data and some of the ecological assumptionswithin the modelling process. Landscape modelling is an emergingdiscipline, and further work is needed to enhance confidencein model outputs.     

CamFlores: A FLORES-type model for the humid forest margin in Cameroon

A FLORES-type model in the Simile modelling environment is being developed for three villages in the Humid Forest Benchmark area of southern Cameroon. The modelling project seeks to investigate the effects of introduction of new crop varieties and improved farming systems on the long-term maintenance of stable mosaics of forest and agriculture, within the context of the international Alternatives to Slash and Burn programme. Biophysical data have been collated, and socio-econnomic and tenure data have been acquired in spatially-explicit ways. Maps of land-cover at village and benchmark scale are being prepared from detailed and semi-detailed satellite imagery, using a nested legend system that allows linking of maps at different scales. These data enable the initial construction and parameterisation of the model, and will permit the extrapolation of the results of modelling from the villages to the benchmark, and ultimately to the whole of the Congo Basin humid forests. The prototype version of the model involves 10 households and about 500 land patches, and includes the three agricultural systems dominant in the southern more forested portion of the Benchmark (mixed food-fallow systems, forest melon fields, cocoa plantations) with no rental, sale or other transfer of land. Decision-making at the household level is essentially modelled deterministically, and labour productivity is assumed to be constant between households. This model is now complete, and once it has been adjusted and suitably parameterised, it will be applied to real data from the three test villages. This will require the addition of new farming systems, the introduction of modes of permanent or temporary transfer of land, and modification of the decision model to render it more realistic. The work described in this paper is a part of a project funded by the European Union through ICRAF and hosted at the IITA Humid Forest Ecoregional Centre, Cameroon. The assistance of Valentina Robiglio (JPO GIS specialist), especially in preparation of land-cover maps and in collection of socio-economic data, is gratefully acknowledged, as is the work of IITA ASB village facilitators in collection of field data. The cooperation of IITA, IRAD, CIFOR and ICRAF scientists in providing data for the model and periodically reviewing progress with the modelling process was essential to the progress achieved thus far.     

Promotion of Sustainable Buildings in China- Integration of Bamboo and Renewable Energy Technologies

WWF China and the International Network for Bamboo and Rattan (INB AR) jointly launched the project "Promotion of Energy Efficient Buildings: Integration of Bamboo and Renewable Energy Technologies" together with the Urban & Rural Planning & Design Institute of Yunnan and BEAR Architecten Gouda (Holland) in March 2002. The objective of the project is to design model houses, hotels and school buildings for rural people in Yuanan Province to provide 'comfortable' living conditions with a minimum and meaningful input of artificial energy and to reduce the need for wood for heating or cooking.     

Community-based management of rural pine forests in a suburban village of Hiroshima prefecture, western Japan

Community-based management of a rural pine forest in a small suburban community, was examined and assessed. In particular, the study focused on theMatsutake project, which is an initiative seeking to help in the maintenance of a communal pine forest via the cultivation of theMatsutake mushroom by a local seniors’ group. From an ecological perspective, the maintenance work is found to be effective in the conservation and regeneration of the pine forest ecosystem, including its species diversity, especially in the herb layer. From a sociological perspective, theMatsutake project presented a valuable opportunity to strengthen connections not only within the seniors’ group, but also between senior citizens and other generations. However, subsidies for the project have tended to be gradually reduced, because it is difficult for non-involved community members to appreciate the benefits of the project. For the project to be sustainable, more widespread participation of the community is essential. A framework for wider analysis of local participatory forest management is also deemed necessary.     

The small-scale forestry group 1986–2006: an overview on the group activities during the last 20 years

This paper documents the history of the first 20 years of the Small-scale Forestry Group of the International Union of forest Research Organisations (IUFRO). The origins of the Small-scale Forestry Group can be traced back to the ‘Five Year Report 1982–1986, IUFRO Division 3 Forest Operations and Techniques’ where ‘Division 3 took the initiative to intensify research in the area of Small-scale Forestry by promoting a new project group P 3.04 ...’. In 1986 this group was founded during the IUFRO World Congress in Ljubljana. The emergence of the Small-scale Forestry Group reflects the expanding interest in small-scale forestry as a field of study and its increasing social and economic importance. This paper describes and critically assesses the how the Group has developed during the last 20 years, and reviews the activities which have been undertaken, and makes some forecasts about the future of the Group. The key impression is that the Group has been remarkably active, and has achieved much more than could have been predicted at the time it was formed.     

世界桉树芳香油生产与市场供求趋势研究

可以作为芳香油生产原料的桉树有20多种。中国、葡萄牙、西班牙、南非和巴西等国是桉树芳香油的主要生产国家,每年总产量大约3000吨,产品主要销往法国、美国、西德、英国和日本等国。医药型芳香油价格稳定,工业用油和香料型芳香油的价格呈下降趋势。中国产品出口数量和价格对国际市场具有决定性影响。     

基于对偶回归的杉木与马尾松地位指数互导模型

应用对偶回归分析法,结合相关系数分析,对雪峰山地区324块同时具有杉木和马尾松地位指数值数据的样地进行对偶回归分析,建立了不同地地貌类型的雪峰山杉木与马尾松地位指数互导模型,模拟效果较好。预测误差值分布稳定,建模的平均相对误差为1.95%,模型适用性检验的平均相对误差为3.18%。不仅解决了地位指数代换偏差较大,精度不够高的问题,而且简化了建模的过程,提高了模型的实用性。     

武陵山片区竹编制品造型设计与其生产工艺融合研究

竹编制品的造型设计是竹编产业化发展的重要趋势,也是竹编企业提升竹编制品价值的重要途径。武陵山片区竹编制品在产业化开发中存在着产品设计与生产工艺脱节的问题。文章分析了竹编制品造型设计的重要性以及与生产工艺有效衔接的方式,认为竹编制品的造型设计是其产业化的基础,产品设计图样只有与编织工艺完美衔接起来才能实现设计的目的,才能实现产品的产业化,从而为生产者带来经济效益。     

Implementing principles,criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management in Gabon

Sustainable forest management is the process of managing forest to achieve one or more clearly specified objectives without diminishing the forest’s ability to continue providing goods and services in perpetuity. In this paper, we show how the African Timber Organization/International Tropical Timber Organization principles, criteria and indicators for the sustainable management of African forests can help timber companies assess their progress towards this goal in Gabon. Through a partnership between International Tropical Timber Organization project PD 124/01 Rev. 2(M), the World Wildlife Fund, and the ministry responsible for forests in Gabon, audits were conducted between 2012 and 2014 to evaluate the implementation of sustainable forest management in 14 forest concessions in Gabon. In general, results show that Principle 4, linked to the well-being of workers and local populations, proved the most difficult principle to implement, while Principle 3, dealing with maintaining ecological functions, was the least problematic. A number of companies were found to be experiencing significant difficulties in implementing management plans. It is also clear that independent forest certification has become a key element for ensuring the successful implementation of sustainable forest management.     

国际核证碳标准林业碳汇项目运行机理、开发现状及经验借鉴

林业具有多重效益，兼具减缓和适应气候变化的双重功能，是实现碳中和的经济可行的重要措施。国际核证碳标准（VCS）以其严格的项目开发规则和适时更新迭代的标准体系，成为世界各国开发林业碳汇项目的主要标准。文中介绍了VCS林业碳汇项目的运行架构、开发流程以及项目登记交易规则等运行机理，分析VCS林业碳汇项目的方法学使用情况、项目开发情况以及项目价格变动情况，指出林业碳汇项目为发展中国家获得持续融资机会、实现可持续发展目标发挥了重要作用；总结了VCS标准在长期实践中在更新规则、注重协同效益、实现公开透明、侧重提升碳信用质量、采用数字化技术等方面积累的经验，对我国制定自愿减排市场制度规则、国内学者研究VCS标准、项目开发方掌握VCS林业碳汇项目开发程序等具有理论参考和经验借鉴价值。     

ADDIE模型下的“国际蝙蝠年”项目设计

在进行“国际蝙蝠年”活动和展览项目的设计中，广州动物园应用国外保护教育项目设计的ADDIE模式，按分析、设计、开发、执行、评估等步骤，科学设计，认真实施，保证了项目的顺利实施和预期效果。