Recent Trends in Nonmetropolitan Migration: Toward a New Turnaround?

An attempt is made to review migration trends in the United States over the past 30 years. The emphasis is on changes in migration patterns between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. "Annual net migration estimates are examined, considering the changing metropolitan-nonmetropolitan differential, and differences across geographic and functional county types in nonmetropolitan areas. Some differences stand out across the 24-year period, but the most notable finding is the widespread nature of the turnaround, the reversal, and the current recovery. There are differences between the present and the 1970s, but a trend toward greater retention and/or acquisition of people in rural and small town areas is clear."     

Urbanization,interregional accessibility,and the decision to migrate

Trends in population and labor force growth in nonmetropolitan areas of the United States during the 1970s are analyzed. The authors investigate the relationships among migration behavior, urban accessibility, and externalities such as congestion that are associated with urban residence. "A model of the migration decision [is examined] that incorporates in an explicit fashion this proximity-centrality relationship. Estimates of the model are also discussed, with specific attention given to the relationship under question. In addition, the age selectivity of the relationship [is] examined. Insights on the nonmetropolitan reversal drawn from the model estimates are discussed in a third section, followed by concluding remarks."     

The Baby Boom and Nonmetropolitan Population Change, 1975‐1990

ABSTRACT Both economic and demographic contexts influence aggregate migration streams at the regional scale. The influence of demographic and economic context on aggregate migration at the nonmetropolitan scale, however, remains unstudied. This paper presents analysis based on 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) data related to age cohort effects on nonmetropolitan population change. The analysis provides enhanced understanding of how demographic factors like the baby boom might influence population movements into and out of nonmetropolitan regions. Using modified age‐cohort decomposition techniques, the analysis demonstrates how the fluctuations in nonmetropolitan population growth between 1975 and 1990 are tied to the differential migration flows of the peak baby boom years (those born between 1955 and 1964). The analysis further demonstrates how fluctuations in nonmetropolitan population growth across regions are tied to migration flows of these baby boomers. Significant variation remains within regions.     

Long-distance commuting and population change in Georgia, 1960-80

The authors investigate counter-urbanization and population change in Georgia between 1960 and 1980 by examining commuting patterns. "The immediate objective is to construct the entire set of commuting fields of both large metropolitan areas to metropolitan and nonmetropolitan employment centers. We then proceed to the relationship between commuting from nonmetropolitan areas to all levels of Georgia's urban hierarchy and population change in these nonmetropolitan settings. By matching population growth and decline areas with explicit employment ties...the nature of the population changes is much better understood." Data from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses for 581 Census County Divisions (CCDs) in Georgia are analyzed. It is concluded that "most nonmetropolitan growth taking place in Georgia is associated with intensification of metropolitan commuting fields along with growth of nonmetropolitan centers and their influence along the very periphery of metropolitan spheres of employment influence. However, a significant share of Georgia's nonmetropolitan population revitalization is explained by growth independent of direct metropolitan influence. It would appear then that nonmetropolitan growth centers are an important part of the basis for population decentralization in Georgia. Metropolitan spill-over alone cannot account for counterurbanization on this portion of the American economic landscape."     

Spatial and Temporal Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Trends in Income Inequality

ABSTRACT Overall total inequality for state per capita personal income as well as total inequality for nonmetropolitan and metropolitan areas are examined for the period 1969 to 1995. In each case, the total inequality was partitioned into between-and within-region variations. Statistical testing shows no perceptible differences between the major categories, nonmetropolitan and metropolitan. Further, this study uses a model to test for narrowing of income gaps within these categories. It was found that for both nonmetropolitan and metropolitan, a general trend toward equality was evidenced during the early 1970s decade. In that decade, the nonmetropolitan areas’incomes approached the metropolitan areas’incomes but showed significant divergences in the 1980s, followed again by a narrowing of the gaps in the 1990s.     

Factors affecting urban-to-rural migration

This study is concerned with the household characteristics of those involved in the population turnaround from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas in the United States. Its primary objective is to examine empirically the factors affecting the population turnaround and to provide some additional insights into the general directions of this migration trend. Data for the study are taken from a longitudinal nationwide sample survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan and involving approximately 6,000 families interviewed annually since 1968.     

Maquiladoras and U.S.‐Bound Migration in Central Mexico

Over the past one and a half decades, smaller cities and nonmetropolitan areas in Mexico have attracted manufacturing plants, led by the export manufacturing sector. Maquiladoras in particular are increasingly locating their plants in such places in the “deep interior” Mexico—outside of the border states. Using 1980 and 1990 Mexican census data for 19 growth centers and 27 high‐emigration municipios (counties) in Central Mexico, this paper suggests that foreign‐owned assembly (maquiladora) jobs decentralized significantly over the 1980s, locating closer to emigrant municipios. An examination of 17 emigrant municipios in the industrialized states of Jalisco and Guanajuato found that an emigrant municipio's accessibility to maquiladora jobs, and jobs indirectly related to maquiladora growth, was positively related to its overall employment growth, which was, in turn, negatively related to its U.S. migration rate over the decade. Although the migration reduction inherent in these relationships is relatively small, it could be accelerated by U.S. and Mexican policies giving incentives for more peripheral locations of export‐oriented and other manufacturing.     

Spatial aspects of post-1970 work force migration in the United States

The author examines the spatial distribution of population and economic activities in the United States, with particular reference to the phenomenon of renewed growth in nonmetropolitan areas. The study is based on an analysis disaggregated by region. Data are from the one percent Continuous Work History Sample     

Nonemployment Income and the Economic Base of Michigan Counties: 1959–1986

ABSTRACT Despite the fact that nonemployment income makes up approximately one-third of all personal income, its impact on local area economies has not been closely examined. This study uses Michigan county data to examine the impact of nonemployment income on nonbasic income over a twenty-seven-year period. This impact is compared to the impact of basic income by employing regression analysis to estimate comparative multiplier effects for both types of income. Nonemployment income is found to have a significant impact on nonbasic income, particularly in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan urban counties, where its impact appears to be stronger than that of basic income.     

Regional metropolitan and nonmetropolitan trends in annual growth rates of total personal income and population: 1959-1987

"The annual growth rates of total personal income and population in regional metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas [of the United States] are examined for the period 1959-87, partitioned into sub periods. Statistical testing for equality of rates shows no perceptible differences in growth rates between the major categories, metro and nonmetro. Further, this study uses a model similar in scope to shift-share analysis to test for convergence of the growth rates within these categories. It was found that for both regional nonmetro and metro areas, there was a general trend toward convergence with the exception of the 1970s decade. In that decade total population growth rates in the nonmetro areas and total income and total population growth rates in the metro areas showed significant divergences."     

Interindustry Employment Requirements in Nonmetropolitan Communities

Interindustry employment requirements are examined in nonmetropolitan communities ranging in population size between 1,000 and 15,000. A ten-sector economic base model is first used to estimate the demand for nonbasic employment in five different functional types of communities. A new and improved method for community impact assessment is then outlined. Here a distance-weighting procedure is applied to the various type-specific estimates of nonbasic employment so that a composite employment requirements matrix can be calculated for any study community. Finally, postimpact interindustry requirements are decomposed into two effects: preimpact employment requirements plus nonbasic employment shifts reflecting structural change. All estimates and findings are based on the Arizona Community Data Set.     

Transitions of Poverty Amidst Employment Growth: Two Nonmetro case studies

ABSTRACT The theory behind employment growth as a strategy for lessening the poverty problem is based on a premise that job opportunities are inadequate. But during rapid employment growth in some nonmetropolitan areas of Kentucky and Georgia the effect on poverty has been limited. A large majority of poor households have no potential to leave poverty via employment since age, health, and other limiting factors among household members restrict entry into the work force. Also, for some the condition of being poor resulted not because they had never worked, but because they tended to have worked at marginal, low-wage jobs. Meanwhile, some jobs went unfilled because employers could not find persons who could meet the right requirements. This study shows that in these two areas, expanding employment opportunities did not significantly reduce the poverty problem. As the literature addressing the issue of the effects of employment growth on poverty is inconclusive and sometimes contradictory, clarification of how employment gains are distributed among local residents is essential.     

Why Is U.S. Poverty Higher in Nonmetropolitan than in Metropolitan Areas?

ABSTRACT In the U.S., people are more likely to be poor if they live in a nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) than in a metropolitan (metro) area. A common explanation for this phenomenon is that nonmetro places offer relatively few economic and social opportunities. This article explores another plausible explanation, asking if the disproportionate poverty in nonmetro areas partly reflects attitudes of people with personal attributes related to poverty: they may be attracted to nonmetro places or otherwise reluctant (or unable) to leave them. To test this hypothesis, data from nine waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) are used to track economic well‐being and nonmetro–metro residential choice among a sample of 2,007 low‐income householders. A series of multivariate regression models are estimated in which the dependent variable is a householder's income to need (adjusted for spatial cost‐of‐housing differences), and regressors are individual attributes, a binary variable for nonmetro residence, and state fixed‐effects. Regression results show that controlling for householder educational attainment reduces the negative association between nonmetro residence and income to need; but controlling for unobserved, time‐invariant heterogeneity via individual fixed‐effects increases the magnitude of this negative association. Study findings thus appear to indicate that enduring nonmetro poverty is explained both by a sorting of low human capital individuals into nonmetro areas and by reduced economic opportunities in nonmetro compared to metro places.     

On the persistence of U.S. migration rates in the 20th century

The persistence or inertia of net migration rates in the United States during the twentieth century is measured. A set of basic migration data for states, counties, and state economic areas is described, and manipulations of these data are discussed. "The manipulated data are [then] analyzed graphically and by regression. The report concludes with a few remarks on the use of demographic extrapolations for planning and policy purposes."     

Small Business Development and Nonmetropolitan Job Growth in Georgia

To assess development potential of small business, this research examines the age and size characteristics of nonmetropolitan firms and the contribution of business ‘births,’‘deaths,’ expansions, and contractions to job growth. Analysis of data derived from the federal‐state unemployment insurance program in Georgia indicates that firms employing fewer than 100 workers account for 44.3 percent of private sector nonfarm employment in nonmetropolitan counties. Overall, the mix of small and large firms remained quite stable over the five year study period. The dynamics of job creation and loss differed dramatically by enterprise size and manufacturing/nonmanufacturing sector. Three segments of the business population contributed most to rural job growth: very small continuing firms, large manufacturing establishments, and non‐manufacturing businesses owned by large enterprises. The paper concludes with a discussion of economic development policies that may enable rural communities to capitalize on these business demographic trends.     

Birth without raising: Impact of labor migration on the medical benefits for migrant children in China

The relationship between labor migration and the medical benefits of migrant children (MC) has long been a focus of empirical research. Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the migrant population in Hubei Province by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China in 2014 and the characteristic data of prefecture-level cities, this paper studies the impact of labor migration on the medical benefits of MC. The major findings of this paper are that in China, due to the huge spatial differences in medical services, the migration of labor to urban areas with better public services helps to improve the medical benefits of women during pregnancy and lying-in period, and at the same time significantly enhances the medical benefits of the MC. In contrast, due to the relative lag of the reform in social security system such as household registration and medical care, in the long run, labor migration is not conducive to the improvement of the medical benefits of MC. Based on the above findings, this paper suggests that in the short-term, more public resources should be allocated to the urban medical supply, especially at the primary level, and in the long-term, the adjustment of public policies should be aimed at eliminating urban-rural differences.     

Persistent Differences in Well-Being Between Appalachian Subregions

ABSTRACT Previously it was reported that regional variations in well-being (poverty, per capita income, and family income) among Appalachian counties did not originate from regional variations in urbanization, but from regional differences in well-being among nonmetropolitan counties. It was argued that southern Appalachian counties had higher levels of well-being at the end of the 1980s because nonmetropolian counties in southern Appalachia experienced greater economic growth during the 1980s than did nonmetropolitan counties in other Appalachian regions. In this paper these data are reanalyzed to test to what extent the original findings are affected by the presence (and failure to control) spatial autocorrelation. Using a spatial lag model it is shown that correcting for spatial autocorrelation statistically altered the original results. However, substantively, the conclusions from the original analysis did not change: regional differences in county well-being in Appalachia are largely the product of regional differences among nonmetropolitan counties, even after correcting the model for spatial autocorrelation.     

Analysis of Local Sales Taxation in Rural Areas: An Oklahoma Case Study

This study examines the impact of tax rates and tax rate differentials in a trade area on local sales tax revenues. Sales data for FY 1986 were analyzed for the 75 nonmetropolitan communities in Oklahoma with populations between 2,500 and 50,000. Multiple regression techniques were used to estimate local tax revenues as a function of tax rates, tax rate differential and local community economic and locational attributes. The results indicate that the tax rate differential was not significantly related to local revenue collection in the overall sample, but that the differential was significant for rural communities with relatively higher tax rates. Tax rate, income, service sector employment and a gravity factor were also significant influences on local sales tax revenues. These results imply that, because of the unique characteristics of rural retail markets and the dominance of rural trade centers, these rural trade center cities are able to raise local tax rates and effectively export tax burden to nonresidents without significantly affecting their retail sales when the tax differential is not a large one.     

Commuting distances to local non‐farm workplaces and out‐migration: The case of Northeast Thailand

The relationship between commuting distances and where people work has been studied for urban contexts in both developed countries and developing countries. However, few studies have examined the situation in rural areas, and none look at commuting distances to non‐farm workplaces in rural areas of developing countries. This paper investigates how commuting distance, and thus accessibility, to local non‐farm work influences non‐farm employment and out‐migration from rural villages in Northeast Thailand. The main issues examined are: (i) the distance that rural residents travel to work in local non‐farm jobs; and (ii) the influence that local non‐farm employment has on the number of outmigrants from rural villages. The study finds: (i) distance between villages and non‐farm work sites impact the number of villagers who are employed in regular wage work; (ii) beyond 20 km villagers are less likely to travel to non‐farm employment using their own means of transportation; and (iii) employment in regular wage work decreases outmigration. The findings from this study contribute to the debates over the drivers of rural out‐migration, rural livelihood changes, and agrarian changes that are taking place in Southeast Asia.     

An infatuation with building things: Business strategies,linkages, and small city economic development in Manitoba

The establishment of a solid understanding of regional economic development has proved to be highly elusive. Research efforts within this area have focused largely on major urban areas, yet this somewhat narrow focus means that economic development activities in smaller urban centers have not received the attention that they deserve. This article investigates regional economic development within a small city context through a survey-based study of the entrepreneurial ecosystems operating in two small cities in the province of Manitoba. The results indicate that many currently accepted bases of regional business community expansion, such as government support and development of local suppliers, have limited utility within these cities. Concurrently, business leader survey responses from the two cities reveal a unique set of factors that drive economic development success in this nonmetropolitan case study, keyed by the pivotal role of a unique mix of nonlocal linkages, local cultural resources, and social connections in catalyzing local business expansion. These findings indicate that business community growth in the study cities proceeds from a distinctive template relative to larger centers, and suggest that increased research attention is necessary to elucidate the bases of business success in a more diverse selection of successful small cities.