证据理论在技术分析中的应用

针对单一技术方法在证券投资中有被骗线的可能,提出采用多种技术分析方法判断证券未来的走势;对于不同分析方法所得结论的差异用证据理论进行处理;将不同的技术分析方法作为独立的证据源,利用D-S合成法则对各种方法的结果予以融合,从而提高分析结果的可靠性和科学性。     

An Improved Faustmann Model and Its Application to Calculation of Forest Economic Maturity

在分析Ｆａｕｓｔｍａｎｎ模型的基础上,推导出了Ｆａｕｓｔｍａｎｎ改进模型．该模型不仅可以正确地计算经济成熟龄,还可以正确地说明经济成熟龄与贴现率、轮伐期以及成本之间的数量关系．并在此基础上计算了山西省管涔山森林经营局秋千沟林场各经营类型的经济成熟龄．     

基于因子分析和聚类分析的林业有害生物防控综合评价

在科学构建林业有害生物防控综合评价指标体系基础上,运用因子分析和聚类分析法,对31个省进行林业有害生物防控综合评价和分析。结果表明:上海综合水平最高,广西综合水平最低。林业有害生物防控综合水平存在地区不平衡的问题,东部地区较高,中部地区一般,东北和西部地区较低。防治力弱和林业有害生物危害程度高是综合评价生物防控综合水平较低省份的共性问题。     

基于数据仓库理论的林业信息数据模型的设计

本文应用数据仓库理论,分析了林业信息数据仓库模型的建立及建立数据环境模型中的关键技术和解决方案,并在林业数据环境设计中得到了应用。     

关于迎春林业局实木门实木家具厂经济效益分析

本文从理论上对新建项目从固定资产投资估算到整个经济效益分析全过程进行了详细论证, 确保企业投资的决策性、方向性和可行性。     

塔河县二十二站林场森林资源状况的动态分析

二十二站林场位于大兴安岭林区东北部,行政管辖隶属黑龙江省塔河县。本文对林场的森林 资源现状、森林资源特点、资源消长变化做出了分析和论述。     

Evaluating organisational designs in the forestry wood supply chain to support Forest Owners’ Cooperations

In the coming decades European forest-based industries could face a lack of wood as raw material because of low mobilisation of the net annual increment, even though there is a huge amount of green inventory in European forests. The main obstacle to systematic exploitation of the wood inventories is small-scale ownership. Forest Owner Cooperations (FOCs) try to overcome this by jointly undertaking activities including harvesting, transporting, marketing and accounting. In this paper, the concept of business-process engineering is applied to FOCs in Austria and Germany. Using case studies, productivity is compared for three business process models that are implemented by FOCs. Because of the lack of consistent data about time spent by various process owners for different processes, interactions are used as an indicator of process efficiency of the alternative business process models. The main contribution of the paper is to provide a guideline to compare different FOC business process models with respect to the interactions of participants. Reducing the interaction (or transaction) cost of timber supply is one way to improve the availability of wood as a raw material. It can be shown that the proposed dividend model requires less process interactions than other models examined in this paper.     

Sustainable use of non-timber forest products: Impact of fruit harvesting on Pentadesma butyracea regeneration and financial analysis of its products trade in Benin

Pentadesma butyracea Sabine (Clusiaceae) is a multi-purpose tree that provides non-timber forest products (NTFPs). In particular, fruit almonds can be transformed into butter for cooking and cosmetics. During the present study, the following hypotheses were tested: (i) diameter structure of P. butyracea populations is independent of its fruit gathering intensity; (ii) P. butyracea seedling and sapling density and origin are independent of its fruit gathering intensity; (iii) P. butyracea fruit gathering and processing of its almonds are profitable activities and (iv) P. butyracea fruit collectors and almond transformers are receiving the lowest marketing margins in the commercial channel. The class distribution in the low-intensity harvesting sites showed a typical inverse J-shaped curve whereas the high-intensity harvesting ones showed an almost bell curve (G² = 23.93, p = 0.0008). After data analysis, all hypotheses turned out to be wrong except the hypothesis (iii). In order to assess the effects of fruit harvesting on natural regeneration of P. butyracea, we compared seedling and sapling density of regeneration originating from seeds and roots suckers in plots that had been differentiated according to fruit harvesting intensity. These plots were laid out in riparian forests, which are the natural habitats for the species in Benin. Observed seedling and sapling density was high (13,872 ± 7886 seedlings and saplings/ha) in low-intensity harvesting sites but very low (4200 ± 3810 seedlings and saplings/ha) in high-intensity harvesting sites (F = 17.16; p = 0.0006). However, there was no significant difference between root sucker density in either type of harvesting site (F = 0.79; p = 0.3861). Collection of P. butyracea fruits and subsequent processing of its almonds into butter is an important source of income for women involved in these activities. Commercial margin analysis showed that these women involved in almonds and butter trade, far from being exploited by traders, recuperate between 49% and 80% of the price paid by the consumer, depending on the quality of the product and the length of commercial channel used.     

A bioeconomic analysis of carbon sequestration in farm forestry: a simulation study of Gliricidia sepium

Trees provide many environmental services including improved soil fertility and soil structure, which often leads to increased productivity and sustainability of the land. Trees also increase the average carbon stocks of land-use systems. Under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, landholders may receive payments for the carbon-sequestration services provided. This study is the first of a series aimed at assessing the appropriateness of tree-based land-use systems as alternatives to continuous cropping and/or Imperata-fallow systems. The performance of a Gliricidia sepium woodlot, grown over 25 years and under various pruning and harvesting regimes, was assessed through modelling. The assessment was based on the system’s ability to sequester and store carbon, maintain land productivity, and be financially profitable for landholders. It was found that the system was profitable under most management regimes tested. Profits were maximised by pruning and harvesting as much biomass as possible when no carbon payments were available, but this strategy decreased system productivity and profitability in the long run. Carbon-sequestration payments encouraged landholders to adopt less intensive practices since net revenues were higher with carbon payments. It was also shown that the carbon pools included in a carbon-trading scheme were sensitive to carbon-measuring costs. For example, if the annual cost of measuring soil carbon was greater than US$1.19 ha⁻¹ it would not be economical to account for this pool in a carbon-sequestration project.     

Application of the analytic hierarchy process to riparian revegetation policy options

While riparian vegetation can play a major role in protecting land, water and natural habitat in catchments, there are high costs associated with tree planting and establishment and in diverting land from cropping. The distribution of costs and benefits of riparian revegetation creates conflicts in the objectives of various stakeholder groups, and elicitation of importance weights of objectives and determination of rankings of a number of policy options by these stakeholder groups becomes critical in decision-making. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a multicriteria analysis technique that provides an appropriate tool to accommodate the conflicting views of various stakeholder groups. The AHP allows the users to assess the relative importance of multiple criteria (or multiple alternatives against a given criterion) in an intuitive manner. This paper presents an application of AHP to obtain preference weights of environmental, social and economic objectives which have been used in ranking riparian revegetation policy options in a small catchment (watershed) in north Queensland, Australia. The preference weights towards environmental, economic and social objectives have been obtained for the various stakeholder groups (landholders, representatives of local sugar mill staff, environmentalists, recreational fishers and the local community). The AHP technique has proved useful in eliciting objectives and ranking policy options as well as in checking for consistency of the statements of stakeholder groups. Implementation of this approach requires a complex data elicitation process.     

Economic analysis of harvesting behavior using the modified Gentan probability theory

In the past studies on the Gentan probability theory, economic factors, such as the price of logs and the interest rate, have not been embedded into the derived stochastic model due to the limitation of the underlying assumptions. This has lead to misleading results of economic analysis for harvesting behavior based on the Gentan probability theory. In this paper, economic analysis of harvesting behavior was conducted by extending the Gentan probability theory. Since the proposed stochastic process can incorporate a nonstationary growth function, economic analysis of harvesting behavior was easily implemented. Experimental analysis of economic factors showed that change in the price of logs, the interest rate and harvest related costs affected the Gentan probability distribution. Although the analysis is still hypothetical, the results imply the potential use of the Gentan probability theory to predict the forest owners' harvesting behavior.     

Estimation of yield and ultimate strengths of bolted timber joints by nonlinear analysis and yield theory

A finite element nonlinear analysis was conducted on bolted timber joints under lateral loads parallel and perpendicular to the grain. The results obtained from this analysis were compared with the experimental results and calculated values based on the yield theory. The analysis and experiment were performed on double shear bolted joints parallel and perpendicular to the grain with steel side plates and a slotted-in steel plate. It was found from the analysis that the yielding of wood and bolt occurred before the overall yielding of the bolted joint. Shear strength of bolted joints calculated from the yield theory using the embedding yield strength of wood and the yield moment of the bolt showed comparatively good agreement with the shear strength evaluated by 5% offset of the load–slip curve in the experiment and analysis. The shear strength of the bolted joint calculated from the yield theory using the embedding ultimate strength of wood and the ultimate moment of the bolt agreed quite well with the shear strength evaluated by the maximum load up to 15mm slip in the analysis. The former, parallel and perpendicular to the grain, were 11% and 34%, on average smaller than the latter in the experiment.Part of this paper was presented at the 52nd Annual Meeting of the Japan Wood Research Society, Gifu, April 2002; the Annual Meeting of Architectural Institute of Japan 2002, Ishikawa, August 2002; and the World Conference on Timber Engineering 2002, Shah Alam, Malaysia, August 2002     

油茶在平江县退耕还林项目中的应用与成效分析

通过对油茶在平江县退耕还林项目中的应用调查,总结了油茶在退耕还林项目中的主要应用模式、应用技术及成效,分析了农民种植油茶增收情况及油茶深加工增值情况,提出了油茶在退耕还林项目中应用的建议。     

SWOT分析模型及其在森林旅游规划中的应用

对SWOT分析方法的内涵及其在旅游规划上的应用方法、步骤进行论述.认为SWOT分析法内部隐含缺陷,即内外因素割裂化、因素评判的模糊化和分析的静态化,从而导致了实际运用的困难.论述国内外学者对SWOT分析法的改进.最后阐述了SWOT分析法应用在森林旅游规划中的方法、步骤、要点等.     

Application of the logistic, gompertz, and richards growth functions to gentan probability analysis

In a previous paper, a stochastic model complying with a state-dependent growth rate function was proposed for Gentan probability estimation. The growth function applied was the so-called Mitscherlich type of growth function. In this paper, application of other growth functions,i.e., the logistic, Gompertz and Richards growth functions, is addressed. Assuming growth dynamics as a function of time and state, an alternative stochastic model is derived with the above three growth dynamics. In the proposed model, the time is assumed to be continuous and the state to be discrete. Like in the previous paper, the sum of the Gentan probabilities derived from the proposed model with three growth functions over time is proved to be always unity. This is because the state-dependent part of the growth dynamics is a linear function of the state, which is the same as in the Mitscherlich growth function. This leads to the binomial probability law for a stochastic process, satisfying the unity requirement of the sum of the Gentan probabilities. This research was supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No.11660155) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Science, Sports, and Technology of Japan.     

Benefit-cost analysis of fuelwood management using native alder in Ecuador

The profitability of four farm-level fuelwood management alternatives were examined using benefit-cost analysis. The value of alder wood is based on the market price of a cubic meter of fuelwood sold in Saraguro, Loja, Ecuador. A sensitivity analysis of wage rate, fuelwood price, and project subsidies tests the effects of changes in key economic parameters on project profitability. Present trends in fuelwood demand and social externalities are examined and the subsidy bill is estimated for implementing an alder management plan.School of Renewable Natural Resources, University of Arizona     

Application of the stock change and the production approach to Harvested Wood Products in the EU-15 countries: a comparative analysis

With the analytical tool: Frankfurt Harvested Wood Products (HWP) Model, carbon stocks and carbon stock changes of HWP, either in USE or in LANDFILLS, have been evaluated from the readily available statistical data base of the FAO, FAOSTAT, on the wood commodities: “Sawnwood and Wood-based Panels” and the paper commodities: “Paper and Paperboard”. Essential differences have been found between the individual 15 EU countries in the comparison of the Stock Change Approach and the Production Approach, as well as in the comparison of the stock changes of HWP with the National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) budgets. The stock changes for the HWP in USE within the EU-15 Community have been calculated to be 10.83 Mt C/a (39.71 Mt CO₂/a) based on the Stock Change Approach and 9.81 Mt C/a (35.97 Mt CO₂/a) for the Production Approach, respectively. These numbers can be compared to the total GHG Inventory of the EU-15 of 4,095 Mt CO₂ equivalents, including all six Kyoto gases, which shows that the carbon sequestration of HWP in USE is of the order of 1% relative to GHG Inventory. The GHG balance for the carbon stock changes of HWP in LANDFILLS is of similar magnitude as for the HWP in USE, and therefore a sink when methane outgasing is disregarded. However, when methane outgasing is considered, which is formed as a 1:1 mixture with CO₂ under the prevailing anaerobic conditions the GHG balance results in minus 10.0 Mt C equivalent/a and minus 10.6 Mt C equivalent/a for the Stock Change Approach and the Production Approach under the parameters chosen in this study. Presented in Dublin, October 6–9, 2004, COST-21 Plenary Session.