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1.
Context
Fire is an important driver of ecological processes in semiarid systems and serves a vital role in shrub-grass interactions. In desert grasslands of the southwestern US, the loss of fire has been implicated as a primary cause of shrub encroachment. Where fires can currently be re-introduced given past state changes and recent restoration actions, however, is unknown and controversial.Objectives
Our objective was to evaluate the interactive effects of climate, urban development, and topo-edaphic properties on fire distribution in the desert grassland region of the southwestern United States.Methods
We characterized the spatial distribution of fire in the Chihuahuan Desert and Madrean Archipelago ecoregions and investigated the influence of soil properties and ecological site groups compared to other commonly used biophysical variables using multi-model inference.Results
Soil-landscape properties significantly influenced the spatial distribution of fire ignitions. Fine-textured bottomland ecological site classes experienced more fires than expected in contrast to upland sites with coarse soil textures and high fragment content that experienced fewer fire ignitions than expected. Influences of mean annual precipitation, distance to road/rail, soil available water holding capacity (AWHC) and topographic variables varied between ecoregions and political jurisdictions and by fire season. AWHC explained more variability of fire ignitions in the Madrean Archipelago compared to the Chihuahuan Desert.Conclusions
Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of recent fires in desert grasslands is needed to manage fire and predict responses to climate change. The use of landscape units such as ecological sites presents an opportunity to improve predictions at management scales.2.
Context
An increase in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide has prompted concerns about the resilience of forest ecosystems, particularly in the western U.S., where recent changes are linked with climate warming and 20th-century land management practices.Objectives
To study forest resilience to recent wildfires, we examined relationships among fire legacies, landscape features, ecological conditions, and patterns of post-fire conifer regeneration.Methods
We quantified regeneration across 182 sites in 21 recent large fires in dry mixed-conifer forests of the U.S. northern Rockies. We used logistic and negative binomial regression to predict the probability of establishment and abundance of conifers 5–13 years post-fire.Results
Seedling densities varied widely across all sites (0–127,500 seedlings ha?1) and were best explained by variability in distance to live seed sources (β = ?0.014, p = 0.002) and pre-fire tree basal area (β = 0.072, p = 0.008). Beyond 95 m from the nearest live seed source, the probability of seedling establishment was low. Across all the fires we studied, 75 % of the burned area with high tree mortality was within this 95-m threshold, suggesting the presence of live seed trees to facilitate natural regeneration.Conclusions
Combined with the mix of species present within the burn mosaic, dry mixed-conifer forests will be resilient to large fires across our study region, provided that seedlings survive, fire do not become more frequent, high-severity patches do not get significantly larger, and post-fire climate conditions remain suitable for seedling establishment and survival.3.
Context
Fires and insect outbreaks are important agents of forest landscape change, but the classification and distribution of these combined processes remain unstudied aspects of forest disturbance regimes.Objectives
We sought to map areas of land characterized by homogenous fire regime (HFR) attributes and by distinctive combinations of fire, bark beetles and defoliating insect outbreaks, and how their distribution might change should current climatic trends continue.Methods
We used a 41-year history of mapped fires and forest insect outbreaks to classify HFRs and combined fire and insect disturbance regimes (HDRs). Spatially constrained cluster analysis of 2524 20-km grid cells used mean annual area burned, ignition Julian date, fire size and fire frequency to delineate HFR zones. Mean annual areas burned, affected by bark beetles, and affected by defoliators were used to delineate HDR zones. Random forests classification used climate associations of HDRs to project likely changes in their distribution.Results
Eighteen HFR zones accounted for 30% of variance, compared to 27 HDR zones accounting for 59% of variance. Fire regime designation had low predictive power in explaining 23 homogenous insect outbreak regimes or the 27 HDRs. Climate change projections indicate a northward migration of current HDR zones. Conditions suitable for defoliator outbreaks are projected to increase, resulting in a projected increase in the total rate of forest disturbance.Conclusions
When describing forest disturbance regimes, it is important to consider the combined and possibly interacting agents of tree mortality, which can result in emergent properties not predictable from any single agent.4.
Andrew G. Merschel Emily K. Heyerdahl Thomas A. Spies Rachel A. Loehman 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(7):1195-1209
Context
In the interior Northwest, debate over restoring mixed-conifer forests after a century of fire exclusion is hampered by poor understanding of the pattern and causes of spatial variation in historical fire regimes.Objectives
To identify the roles of topography, landscape structure, and forest type in driving spatial variation in historical fire regimes in mixed-conifer forests of central Oregon.Methods
We used tree rings to reconstruct multicentury fire and forest histories at 105 plots over 10,393 ha. We classified fire regimes into four types and assessed whether they varied with topography, the location of fuel-limited pumice basins that inhibit fire spread, and an updated classification of forest type.Results
We identified four fire-regime types and six forest types. Although surface fires were frequent and often extensive, severe fires were rare in all four types. Fire regimes varied with some aspects of topography (elevation), but not others (slope or aspect) and with the distribution of pumice basins. Fire regimes did not strictly co-vary with mixed-conifer forest types.Conclusions
Our work reveals the persistent influence of landscape structure on spatial variation in historical fire regimes and can help inform discussions about appropriate restoration of fire-excluded forests in the interior Northwest. Where the goal is to restore historical fire regimes at landscape scales, managers may want to consider the influence of topoedaphic and vegetation patch types that could affect fire spread and ignition frequency.5.
Context
Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to acute disturbances. The capacity for forests to persist and/or adapt to climate change remains largely unknown, in part because there is not broad agreement how to measure and apply resilience concepts.Objectives
We assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and alternative management of northern Great Lake forests.Methods
We simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate futures (current climate, a low emissions trajectory, and a high emissions trajectory), and four management regimes [business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting (CSP)]. We simulated each scenario with a forest landscape simulation model. We assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. We assessed resilience and calculated an index of resilience that incorporated both recovery of pre-fire tree species composition and aboveground biomass within simulated burned areas.Results
Results indicate a positive relationship between diversity and resistance within low diversity areas. Simulations of the high emission climate future resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience.Conclusions
Of the management regimes, the CSP regime resulted in some of the greatest resilience under climate change although our results suggest that differences in forest management are largely outweighed by the effects of climate change. Our results provide a framework for assessing resistance and resilience relevant and valuable to a broad array of ecological systems.6.
Context
Resilience in fire-prone forests is strongly affected by landscape burn-severity patterns, in part by governing propagule availability around stand-replacing patches in which all or most vegetation is killed. However, little is known about drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, or whether such patterns are changing during an era of increased wildfire activity.Objectives
(a) Identify key direct/indirect drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire (e.g., size, shape of patches), (b) test for temporal trends in these patterns, and (c) anticipate thresholds beyond which landscape patterns of burn severity may change fundamentally.Methods
We applied structural equation modeling to satellite burn-severity maps of fires in the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010) to test for direct and indirect (via influence on fire size and proportion stand-replacing) effects of climate/weather, vegetation, and topography on landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire. We also tested for temporal trends in landscape patterns.Results
Landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire were strongly controlled by fire size and proportion stand-replacing, which were, in turn, controlled by climate/weather and vegetation/topography, respectively. From 1984 to 2010, the proportion of stand-replacing fire within burn perimeters increased from 0.22 to 0.27. Trends for other landscape metrics were not significant, but may respond to further increases proportion stand-replacing fire.Conclusions
Fires from 1984 to 2010 exhibited tremendous heterogeneity in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, likely promoting resilience in burned areas. If trends continue on the current trajectory, however, fires may produce larger and simpler shaped patches of stand-replacing fire with more burned area far from seed sources.7.
Context
Wildfires play a crucial role in maintaining ecological and societal functions of North American boreal forests. Because of their contagious way of spreading, using statistical methods dealing with spatial autocorrelation has become a major challenge in fire studies analyzing how environmental factors affect their spatial variability.Objectives
We aimed to demonstrate the performance of a spatially explicit method accounting for spatial autocorrelation in burn rates modelling, and to use this method to determine the relative contribution of climate, physical environment and vegetation to the spatial variability of burn rates between 1972 and 2015.Methods
Using a 482,000 km2 territory located in the coniferous boreal forest of eastern Canada, we built and compared burn rates models with and without accounting for spatial autocorrelation. The relative contribution of climate, physical environment and vegetation to the burn rates variability was identified with variance partitioning.Results
Accounting for spatial autocorrelation improved the models’ performance by a factor of 1.5. Our method allowed the unadulterated extraction of the contribution of climate, physical environment and vegetation to the spatial variability of burn rates. This contribution was similar for the three groups of factors. The spatial autocorrelation extent was linked to the fire size distribution.Conclusions
Accounting for spatial autocorrelation can highly improve models and avoids biased results and misinterpretation. Considering climate, physical environment and vegetation altogether is essential, especially when attempting to predict future area burned. In addition to the direct effect of climate, changes in vegetation could have important impacts on future burn rates.8.
Purpose
Wildfire spatial patterns drive ecological processes including vegetation succession and wildlife community dynamics. Such patterns may be changing due to fire suppression policies and climate change, making characterization of trends in post-fire mosaics important for understanding and managing fire-prone ecosystems.Methods
For wildfires in California’s yellow pine and mixed-conifer forests, spatial pattern trends of two components of the post-fire severity matrix were assessed for 1984–2015: (1) unchanged or very low-severity and (2) high-severity, which represent remnant forest and stand-replacing fire, respectively. Trends were evaluated for metrics of total and proportional burned area, shape complexity, aggregation, and core area. Additionally, comparisons were made between management units where fire suppression is commonly practiced and those with a history of managing wildfire for ecological/resource benefits.Results
Unchanged or very low-severity area per fire decreased proportionally through time, and became increasingly fragmented. High-severity area and core area increased on average across most of California, with the high-severity component also becoming simpler in shape in the Sierra Nevada. Compared to suppression units, managed wildfire units lack an increase in high-severity area, have less aggregated post-fire mosaics, and more high-severity spatial complexity.Conclusions
Documented changes in severity patterns have cascading ecological effects including increased vegetation type conversion risk, habitat availability shifts, and remnant forest fragmentation. These changes likely benefit early-seral-associated species at the expense of mature closed-canopy forest-associated species. Managed wildfire appears to moderate some effects of fire suppression, and may help buy time for ecosystems and managers to respond to a changing climate.9.
Context
Wildfires are common in localities where there is sufficient productivity to allow the accumulation of biomass combined with seasonality that allows this to dry and transition to a flammable state. An understanding of the conditions under which vegetated landscapes become flammable is valuable for assessing fire risk and determining how fire regimes may alter with climate change.Objectives
Weather based metrics of dryness are a standard approach for estimating the potential for fires to occur in the near term. However, such approaches do not consider the contribution of vegetation communities. We aim to evaluate differences in weather-based dryness thresholds for fire occurrence between vegetation communities and test whether these are a function of landscape aridity.Methods
We analysed dryness thresholds (using Drought Factor) for fire occurrence in six vegetation communities using historic fires events that occurred in South-eastern Australia using logistic regression. These thresholds were compared to the landscape aridity for where the communities persist.Results
We found that dryness thresholds differed between vegetation communities, and this effect could in part be explained by landscape aridity. Dryness thresholds for fire occurrence were lower in vegetation communities that occur in arid environments. These communities were also exposed to dry conditions for a greater proportion of the year.Conclusions
Our findings suggest that vegetation driven feedbacks may be an important driver of landscape flammability. Increased consideration of vegetation properties in fire danger indices may provide for better estimates of landscape fire risk and allow changes to fire regimes to be anticipated.10.
Context
Disturbances create spatial variation in environments that may influence animal foraging. Granivory by rodents can influence seed supply and thus plant establishment. However, effects of disturbance patterns on rodent seed removal in western North American conifer forests are generally unknown.Objectives
We conducted a study in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests of Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, USA) to answer: (1) How do seed removal and rodent activity vary between recently burned and adjacent unburned forests and with distance from fire perimeter? (2) Which microhabitat conditions explain variability in seed removal and rodent activity?Methods
One or two years after wildfires, we established transects (n = 23) with four stations each: at 10 and 40 m from the fire perimeter in both burned and unburned forest. At stations, we deployed trays with lodgepole pine seeds and cameras pointed at trays for 28 days and quantified habitat structure and seed abundance.Results
Seed removal, which averaged 85%, and diurnal rodent activity did not differ between burned and unburned forests or with distance from the fire perimeter; however, nocturnal rodent activity was lower in burned forests. Seed removal and diurnal rodent activity were not associated with any microhabitat conditions we measured. However, nocturnal rodent activity was associated with microhabitat in both burned and unburned forests.Conclusions
High seed removal rates suggested that rodent foraging was not reduced by high-severity wildfire. If observed seed removal represents natural conditions, post-dispersal seed predation could influence post-fire recruitment of a widespread foundation tree species.11.
Context
Remotely sensed differenced normalized burn ratios (DNBR) provide an index of fire severity across the footprint of a fire. We asked whether this index was useful for explaining patterns of bird occurrence within fire adapted xeric pine-oak forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains.Objectives
We evaluated the use of DNBR indices for linking ecosystem process with patterns of bird occurrence. We compared field-based and remotely sensed fire severity indices and used each to develop occupancy models for six bird species to identify patterns of bird occurrence following fire.Methods
We identified and sampled 228 points within fires that recently burned within Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We performed avian point counts and field-assessed fire severity at each bird census point. We also used Landsat? imagery acquired before and after each fire to quantify fire severity using DNBR. We used non-parametric methods to quantify agreement between fire severity indices, and evaluated single season occupancy models incorporating fire severity summarized at different spatial scales.Results
Agreement between field-derived and remotely sensed measures of fire severity was influenced by vegetation type. Although occurrence models using field-derived indices of fire severity outperformed those using DNBR, summarizing DNBR at multiple spatial scales provided additional insights into patterns of occurrence associated with different sized patches of high severity fire.Conclusions
DNBR is useful for linking the effects of fire severity to patterns of bird occurrence, and informing how high severity fire shapes patterns of bird species occurrence on the landscape.12.
Context
An increasing number of studies have investigated the impact of environmental heterogeneity on faunal assemblages when measured at multiple spatial scales. Few studies, however, have considered how the effects of heterogeneity on fauna vary with the spatial scale at which the response variable is characterised.Objectives
We investigated the relationship between landscape properties in a region characterised by diverse fire mosaics, and the structure and composition of avian assemblages measured at both the site- (1 ha) and landscape-scale (100 ha).Methods
We surveyed birds and calculated spatial landscape properties in sub-tropical woodlands of central Queensland, Australia.Results
Environmental heterogeneity, as measured by topographic complexity, was consistently important for bird species richness and composition. However, the explanatory power of topographic complexity varied depending on the spatial scale and the component of diversity under investigation. We found different correlates of richness within particular foraging guilds depending on the scale at which richness was measured. Extent of long-unburnt habitat (>10 years since fire) was the most important variable for the landscape-scale richness of frugivores, insectivores and canopy feeders, whereas environmental heterogeneity in the surrounding landscape was more important for site-scale richness of these foraging guilds.Conclusions
The response of species richness to landscape characteristics varies among scales, and among components of diversity. Thus, depending on the scale at which a biodiversity conservation goal is conceptualised—maximising richness at a site, or across a landscape—different landscape management approaches may be preferred.13.
Context
Wildfire activity in boreal forests is projected to increase dramatically in response to anthropogenic climate change. By altering the spatial arrangement of fuels, land-cover configuration may interact with climate change to influence fire-regime dynamics at landscape and regional scales.Objectives
We evaluate how land cover interacts with weather conditions to influence boreal-forest burning from 2012 to 2014 in Alaska.Methods
Using geospatial fire and land-cover data, we quantify relationships between area burned and land cover, and test whether observed patterns of burning differ from random under varying weather conditions and fire sizes.Results
Mean summer moisture index was correlated with annual area burned (ρ = ?0.78, p < 0.01), the total number of fires (ρ = ?0.68, p = 0.01), and the number of large fires (>500 km2; ρ = ?0.58, p = 0.04). Area burned was related positively to percent cover of coniferous forest and woody wetlands, and negatively to percent cover of shrub scrub, dwarf scrub, and open water and barren areas. Fires preferentially burned coniferous forest, which represented 50.1 % of the area burned in warmer/drier summers and 40.3 % of area burned in cooler/wetter summers, compared to the 34.5 % (±4.2 %) expected by random selection of land-cover classes. Overall vegetation tended to burn more similarly to random in warmer/drier than cooler/wetter years.Conclusions
Land cover exerted greater influences on boreal fire regimes when weather conditions were less favorable for forest burning. Reliable projections of boreal fire-regime change thus require consideration of the interactions between climate and land cover, as well as feedbacks from land-cover change.14.
Synergistic effects of climate and land cover: grassland birds are more vulnerable to climate change
Marta A. Jarzyna Benjamin Zuckerberg Andrew O. Finley William F. Porter 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(10):2275-2290
Context
Climate change is not occurring over a homogeneous landscape and the quantity and quality of available land cover will likely affect the way species respond to climate change. The influence of land cover on species’ responses to climate change, however, is likely to differ depending on habitat type and composition.Objectives
Our goal was to investigate responses of forest and grassland breeding birds to over 20 years of climate change across varying gradients of forest and grassland habitat. Specifically, we investigated whether (i) increasing amounts of available land cover modify responses of forest and grassland-dependent birds to changing climate and (ii) the effect of increasing land cover amount differs for forest and grassland birds.Methods
We used Bayesian spatially-varying intercept models to evaluate species- and community-level responses of 30 forest and 10 grassland birds to climate change across varying amounts of their associated land cover types.Results
Responses of forest birds to climate change were weak and constant across a gradient of forest cover. Conversely, grassland birds responded strongly to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, increasing temperatures led to higher probabilities of localized extinctions for grassland birds, and this effect was intensified in regions with low amounts of grassland cover.Conclusions
Within the context of northeastern forests and grasslands, we conclude that forests serve as a possible buffer to the impacts of climate change on birds. Conversely, species occupying open, fragmented grassland areas might be particularly at risk of a changing climate due to the diminished buffering capacity of these ecosystems.15.
Giovanni Zurlini Norbert Marwan Teodoro Semeraro K. Bruce Jones Roberta Aretano Maria Rita Pasimeni Donatella Valente Christian Mulder Irene Petrosillo 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(9):1617-1631
Context
Socio-ecological landscapes typically characterized by non-linear dynamics in space and time are difficult to be analyzed using standard quantitative methods, due to multiple processes interacting on different spatial and temporal scales. This poses a challenge to the identification of appropriate approaches for analyzing time series that can evaluate system properties of landscape dynamics in the face of disturbances, such as uncontrolled fires.Objective
The purpose is the application of non-linear methods such as recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to landscape ecology. The examples concern the time series of burnt and unburnt Mediterranean rangelands, to highlight potential and limits of RQA.Methods
We used RQA together with joint recurrence analysis (JRA) to compare the evolutionary behavior of different land uses.Results
Time series of forests and grasslands in rangelands present both periodic and chaotic components with a rather similar behavior after the fire and clear transitions from less to more regular/predictable dynamics/succession. Results highlight the impacts of fire, the recovery capacity of land covers to pre-burnt levels, and the decay of synchronization towards the previous regime associated with vegetation secondary succession consistent with early successional species.Conclusions
RQA and JRA with their set of indices (recurrence rate: RR, laminarity: LAM, determinism: DET, and divergence: DIV) can represent new sensitive measures that may monitor the adaptive capacity and the resilience of landscapes. However, future applications are needed to standardize the analysis by strengthening the accuracy of this approach in describing the ongoing transformations of natural and man-managed landscapes.16.
Context
Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity.Objectives
We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes.Methods
We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and non-threatened priority areas.Results
19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses.Conclusions
We identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.17.
Juan Luis H. Cardós Isabel Martínez Gregorio Aragón Christopher J. Ellis 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(10):1757-1768
Context
The anthropocene is characterised by global landscape modification, and the structure of remnant habitats can explain different patterns of species richness. The most pervasive processes of degradation include habitat loss and fragmentation. However, a recovery of modified landscape is occurring in some areas.Objectives
The main goal is to know how lichen and bryophyte epiphytic richness growing on Mediterranean forests is influenced not only by fragments characteristics but also by the structure of the landscape. We introduce a temporal dimension in order to evaluate if the historical landscape structure is relevant for current epiphytic communities.Methods
40 well-preserved forest fragments were selected in a landscape with a large habitat loss over decades, but with a recovery of forest surface in the last 55 years. The most relevant fragment and landscape-scale attributes were considered. Some of the variables were measured in three different years to incorporate a temporal framework.Results
The results showed that variables at fragment scale had a higher influence, whereas variables at the landscape scale were irrelevant. Among all the historical variables analyzed, only the shift in forest fragment size had influence on species richness.Conclusions
Mediterranean forests had suffered fragmentation along centuries. Their epiphytic communities also suffer the hard conditions of Mediterranean climate. Our results indicate that Mediterranean epiphytic communities may be in a threshold since it they will never be similar to those communities existing previous fragmentation process even a recovery habitat occur or, they may require more time to response to this habitat recovery.18.
Ian M. McCullough Frank W. Davis John R. Dingman Lorraine E. Flint Alan L. Flint Josep M. Serra-Diaz Alexandra D. Syphard Max A. Moritz Lee Hannah Janet Franklin 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(5):1063-1075
Context
Predicting climate-driven species’ range shifts depends substantially on species’ exposure to climate change. Mountain landscapes contain a wide range of topoclimates and soil characteristics that are thought to mediate range shifts and buffer species’ exposure. Quantifying fine-scale patterns of exposure across mountainous terrain is a key step in understanding vulnerability of species to regional climate change.Objectives
We demonstrated a transferable, flexible approach for mapping climate change exposure in a moisture-limited, mountainous California landscape across 4 climate change projections under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for mid-(2040–2069) and end-of-century (2070–2099).Methods
We produced a 149-year dataset (1951–2099) of modeled climatic water deficit (CWD), which is strongly associated with plant distributions, at 30-m resolution to map climate change exposure in the Tehachapi Mountains, California, USA. We defined climate change exposure in terms of departure from the 1951–1980 mean and historical range of variability in CWD in individual years and 3-year moving windows.Results
Climate change exposure was generally greatest at high elevations across all future projections, though we encountered moderate topographic buffering on poleward-facing slopes. Historically dry lowlands demonstrated the least exposure to climate change.Conclusions
In moisture-limited, Mediterranean-climate landscapes, high elevations may experience the greatest exposure to climate change in the 21st century. High elevation species may thus be especially vulnerable to continued climate change as habitats shrink and historically energy-limited locations become increasingly moisture-limited in the future.19.
Rita Bastos António T. Monteiro Diogo Carvalho Carla Gomes Paulo Travassos João P. Honrado Mário Santos João Alexandre Cabral 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(4):701-710
Context
Land-use/land-cover (LU/LC) dynamics is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. In the last years, aerial and satellite imagery have been increasingly used to monitor the spatial extent of changes in LU/LC, deriving relevant biophysical parameters (i.e. primary productivity, climate and habitat structure) that have clear implications in determining spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity, landscape composition and ecosystem services.Objectives
An innovative hierarchical modelling framework was developed in order to address the influence of nested attributes of LU/LC on community-based ecological indicators.Methods
Founded in the principles of the spatially explicit stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM), the proposed methodological advances are supported by the added value of integrating bottom-up interactions between multi-scaled drivers.Results
The dynamics of biophysical multi-attributes of fine-scale subsystem properties are incorporated to inform dynamic patterns at upper hierarchical levels. Since the most relevant trends associated with LU/LC changes are explicitly modelled within the StDM framework, the ecological indicators’ response can be predicted under different social-economic scenarios and site-specific management actions. A demonstrative application is described to illustrate the framework methodological steps, supporting the theoretic principles previously presented.Conclusions
We outline the proposed multi-model framework as a promising tool to integrate relevant biophysical information to support ecosystem management and decision-making.20.
E. J. Raynor C. D. Griffith D. Twidwell W. H. Schacht C. L. Wonkka C. P. Roberts C. L. Bielski D. M. Debinski J. R. Miller 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(12):2103-2119