Impact of imperfect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis vaccines in dairy herds: A mathematical modeling approach

The objective of this study was to investigate the potential impacts of imperfect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) vaccines on the dynamics of MAP infection in US dairy herds using a mathematical modeling approach. Vaccine-based control programs have been implemented to reduce the prevalence of MAP infection in some dairy herds; however, MAP vaccines are imperfect. Vaccines can provide partial protection for susceptible calves, reduce the infectiousness of animals shedding MAP, lengthen the latent period of infected animals, slow the progression from low shedding to high shedding in infectious animals, and reduce clinical disease. To quantitatively study the impacts of imperfect MAP vaccines, we developed a deterministic multi-group vaccination model and performed global sensitivity analyses. Our results explain why MAP vaccination might have a beneficial, negligible, or detrimental effect in the reduction of prevalence and show that vaccines that are beneficial to individual animals may not be useful for a herd-level control plan. The study suggests that high efficacy vaccines that are aimed at reducing the susceptibility of the host are the most effective in controlling MAP transmission. This work indicates that MAP vaccination should be integrated into a comprehensive control program that includes test-and-cull intervention and improved calf rearing management.     

Effects of infectious young stock on results of certification, surveillance and control programmes for paratuberculosis in dairy herds

In many epidemiological models for paratuberculosis, it is assumed that infected young stock (<2 years of age) do not shed Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) before adulthood. If this assumption were true, the effective separation of young stock from adult cattle (≥ 2 years) would largely prevent postnatal infections, provided that uninfected adult cattle are highly resistant to infection. However, this assumption is in contrast with observed faecal shedding of MAP in young stock. Consequently, this assumption may have resulted in an underestimation of the effects of MAP transmission in herds participating in certification-, surveillance-, and control programmes for paratuberculosis. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the long-term effects of transmission of MAP amongst young stock on key output parameters of certification-, surveillance-, and control programmes for paratuberculosis in simulated closed dairy herds. Closed Dutch dairy herds participating in a paratuberculosis programme were simulated with a stochastic model, JohneSSim. Various test schemes, preventive management measures, distributions of age at onset of faecal shedding and rates of effective contacts between young stock were simulated. The results indicate that transmission of MAP amongst young stock has no relevant effects on the animal-level prevalence and milk quality of herds that are certified in a paratuberculosis programme. However, transmission of MAP amongst young stock increased the economic losses due to paratuberculosis and costs of participation in a programme. Moreover, it substantially decreased the beneficial effect of the separation of young stock from adult cattle on the probability of being certified. However, even in the presence of transmission of MAP amongst young stock, preventive management measures to separate young stock from adult cattle remain important.     

Efficacy of monensin sodium for the reduction of fecal shedding of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in infected dairy cattle

Reducing the quantity of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) being shed by cows with Johne's disease should decrease the risk of spread of this disease to young stock. Previous work has suggested that monensin sodium decreases the pathologic lesions associated with Johne's disease, but the impact on shedding of viable MAP remains unknown. After serologic screening of 32 dairy herds in southwestern Ontario, 228 cows from 13 of these herds were enrolled into a randomized clinical trial. Fecal culture and PCR were used to identify 114 cows as potential fecal shedders, while another 114 cows were enrolled as ELISA negative, herd and parity matched controls. All cows were randomized to receive either a monensin controlled release capsule (CRC) or a placebo capsule. Serial fecal and blood samples were collected for fecal culture and serum ELISA testing over a 98-day period. On day 98 of the study, treatments were switched for all cows continuing in the trial. These remaining cows were followed for another 98 days with a similar sampling protocol. Mixed effect models were used to measure the impact of treatment on the number of colony forming units identified on fecal cultures over time. During the first 98 days of the study, cows treated with a monensin CRC were found to shed 3.4 cfu per tube less than placebo treated cows (P = 0.05). The serum ELISA S/P ratio was reduced by 1.39 units in cows given monensin (P = 0.06). However, treatment with monensin did not reduce the odds of testing positive on serology. Only the cows shedding MAP on day 0 were found to have a reduced odds of testing positive on fecal culture when treated with monensin (OR = 0.27; P = 0.03). Monensin sodium administered to infected animals at 335 mg/day marginally reduced fecal shedding of MAP in mature dairy cattle, but the biological significance of this reduction is unknown.     

Point source exposure of cattle to Neospora caninum consistent with periods of common housing and feeding and related to the introduction of a dog

Eight dairy herds with evidence of post-natal transmission of Neospora caninum were used to test the hypothesis of a point source exposure by a retrospective analysis of the housing and feeding of infected age-groups. The first N. caninum-associated abortion or birth of N. caninum-seropositive offspring from the post-natally infected age-group was considered as the first indication of the infection. In seven of the eight dairy herds, a point source exposure to N. caninum of the infected age-groups was found during a limited period of common housing and feeding. In all herds studied, the analysis indicated that the cattle had been infected shortly before the first abortions occurred. In all, except one herd, the post-natal infection was more directly related to housing than to feeding. Therefore, it appeared that the feed was contaminated in the feeding alley. In one herd, the total mixed ration was found to be the probable path of infection. In all farms studied, a new dog (young, adult dog or litter) had been introduced within a period of 1.5 years prior to the first indication of N. caninum infection in the cattle. As there was evidence in all herds of vertical transmission of neosporosis for years, it is hypothesized that the newly introduced dog was infected with N. caninum by materials from already infected cattle and subsequently transmitted the infection to other cattle by shedding of oocysts.     

Modelling transmission dynamics of paratuberculosis of red deer under pastoral farming conditions

This study aimed to develop a mathematical model describing the dynamics of paratuberculosis (PTB) in red deer (Cervus elaphus) under pastoral farming conditions in New Zealand. The model examined infectivity differences between ovine and bovine strains of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) and seasonality of MAP survival. We also evaluate variable use of pasture and the effect of management interventions on the infection prevalence and annual clinical incidence of PTB. A state-transition model was developed and calibrated to observed data on both prevalence of infection and incidence of clinical PTB. To accommodate specific PTB features for deer, the model included a fast and a slow track for progression of infection to disease. MAP on pasture was the source for horizontal transmission and infected dams for vertical transmission. In the presence of a single strain, an infectivity reduction of up to 80% allowed MAP to persist in the herd (R(0)>1). For mixed infection by two strains however, a 30% reduction in infectivity of one strain was sufficient to outcompete a strain with lower infectivity, suggesting that mixed infection of MAP strains with different infectivity may not be common in deer. The model showed that seasonal variation of MAP survival on pasture had little impact on transmission dynamics, and that rotational grazing with pasture spelling vs. permanent grazing of the same paddock reduced both infection prevalence and clinical PTB by about 50%. Based on model outputs, early detection of young deer in a high-shedding state was the most effective means of controlling PTB among the tested scenarios.     

Farm factors associated with the presence of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis infection in dairy herds on the New York State Paratuberculosis Control Program

An extensive questionnaire was developed and used to collect data from 33 herds that were on the New York State Paratuberculosis Control Program, to study farm factors associated with the presence of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis infection in dairy herds. The results of the last whole herd paratuberculosis fecal culture were used to indicate presence of infection in a herd, with herds having one or more animals positive classified as ‘infected’. The average prevalence within herds was 5.2%. Fourteen herds were uninfected and 19 herds had prevalences ranging from 0.7%–28.2%. Data on 31 continuous and 67 categorical risk factors were collected by questionnaire. Ten factors were significantly associated with prevalence risk of infection in the univariable logistic regression. These factors were: the type of farm operation (commercial/registered or both); earlier diagnosis of the disease before entering the control program; number of clinical cases in the previous year; whether clinical cases were raised or purchased animals; typical signs in clinical cases; exposure of calves 0–6 weeks of age to feces of adult cows; contact of young stock with adult animal feces from using the same equipment to clean the housing for both groups of animals; spreading feces on fields from which forage is later harvested and fed to animals of any age group; what is done with animals that are suspected of having paratuberculosis or test positive on culture; and frequency of cleaning the cow barn. Stepwise logistic regression was used to determine the significance of each risk factor while controlling simultaneously for the effect of other factors. The significant factors were the type of farm operation, clinical signs, and exposure of calves to feces of adult cows. Commercial herds, presence of clinical signs typical of paratuberculosis in animals, and exposure of calves 0–6 weeks old to feces of adult cows all indicate a higher likelihood that a herd is infected with M. paratuberculosis.     

Environmental contamination with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in endemically infected dairy herds

Environmental contamination with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) is thought to be one of the primary sources of infection for dairy cattle. The exact link between fecal shedding of MAP by individual cows and environmental contamination levels at the herd level was explored with a cross-sectional analysis of longitudinally collected samples on 3 dairy farms. Composite samples from multiple environmental sites in 3 commercial dairy herds in the Northeast US were cultured quarterly for MAP, providing 1131 samples (133 (11.8%) were culture-positive), and all adult animals in the herds were tested biannually by fecal culture (FC), for 6 years. Of the environmental sites sampled, manure storage areas and shared alleyways were most likely to be culture-positive. Environmental sample results were compared to FC results from either the concurrent or previous sampling date at both the herd and the pen level. At the herd level, a 1 log unit increase in average fecal shedding increased the odds of a positive non-pen environmental sample by a factor of 6 and increased the average amount of MAP in non-pen samples by 2.9 cfu/g. At the pen level, a 1 log unit increase in average fecal shedding in the pen increased the odds of a positive environment by a factor of 2.4 and the average amount of MAP was increased by 3.5 cfu/g. We were not able to model the relationship between non-pen environmental sample status and the distance between shedding animals and the sample's location, and neighboring pens did not significantly affect the results of the pen-level analysis. The amount of MAP in pen-level samples and the probability of a pen testing positive for MAP were both positively but non-significantly correlated with the number of animals in the pen shedding >30 cfu/g of MAP. At least 6 environmental samples met the criteria for the U.S. Voluntary Bovine Johne's Disease Control Program on 47 of the 72 sampling dates; of these, 19 of the 47 FC-positive sampling dates were positive by the 6-sample environmental testing method, resulting in a herd sensitivity of 0.40 (95% CI: 0.26-0.54). None of the 3 FC-negative sampling dates produced positive environmental samples. Although environmental sampling can be used as a tool in understanding the level of MAP infection in a herd or pen, it did not appear to be a sensitive diagnostic method for herd positivity in these low prevalence herds, and its use may require caution.     

Implications derived from a mathematical model for eradication of pseudorabies virus

Simple mathematical models based on experimental and observational data were applied to evaluate the feasibility of eradicating pseudorabies virus (PRV) regionally by vaccination and to determine which factors can jeopardise eradication. As much as possible, the models were uncomplicated and our conclusions were based on mathematical analysis. For complicated situations, Monte-Carlo simulation was used to support the conclusions. For eradication, it is sufficient that the reproduction ratio R (the number of units infected by one infectious unit) is < 1. However, R can be determined at different scales: at one end the region with the herds as units and at the other end compartments with the pigs as units. Results from modelling within herds showed that contacts between groups within a herd is important whenever R between individuals (R_ind) is 1 in one or more groups. This is the case within finishing herds. In addition, if the R_ind is more than 1 within a herd, the size of the herd determines whether PRV can persist in the herd and determines the duration of persistence. Moreover, when reactivation of PRV in well-vaccinated sows is taken into account, R_ind in sow herds is still less than 1. In sow herds with group-housing systems, it is possible that in those groups R_ind is 1. Results from modelling between herds showed that whether or not R_herd is < 1 in a particular region is determined by two factors: (1) the transmission of infection between nucleus herds and rearing herds through transfer of animals and (2) contacts among finishing herds and among rearing herds. The transmission between herds can be reduced by reduction of the contact rate between herds, reduction of the herd size, and reduction of the transmission within herds.     

Seroprevalence of and agroecological risk factors for Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis and neospora caninum infection among adult beef cattle in cow-calf herds in Alberta, Canada

A province-wide cross-sectional seroprevalence and agroecological risk factor study of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) and Neospora caninum (NC) infection among cattle in 100 cow-calf herds in Alberta was conducted. The seroprevalence of MAP in adult cattle was 1.5% across all herds. Using a widely accepted herd test cutpoint of 2 or more seropositive cows out of 30 animals tested, 7.9% of herds were estimated to be infected (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3-23.4%). Seroprevalence of MAP differed by agroecological region; specifically, cattle and herds in areas with high soil pH (> 7.0), southern latitudes, and arid climates had a moderately reduced risk of infection (P < 0.10). Seroprevalence of NC infection was 9.7% among adult beef cattle province-wide--these levels also varied by agroecological region--with 91.0% of herds infected overall.     

Evaluating contribution of the cellular and humoral immune responses to the control of shedding of Mycobacterium avium spp. paratuberculosis in cattle

Mycobacterium avium spp. paratuberculosis (MAP) causes a persistent infection and chronic inflammation of the gut in ruminants leading to bacterial shedding in feces in many infected animals. Although there are often strong MAP-specific immune responses in infected animals, immunological correlates of protection against progression to disease remain poorly defined. Analysis of cross-sectional data has suggested that the cellular immune response observed early in infection is effective at containing bacterial growth and shedding, in contrast to humoral immune responses. In this study, 20 MAP-infected calves were followed for nearly 5 years during which MAP shedding, antigen-specific cellular (LPT) and humoral (ELISA) immune responses were measured. We found that MAP-specific cellular immune response developed slowly, with the peak of the immune response occurring one year post infection. MAP-specific humoral immunity expanded only in a subset of animals. Only in a subset of animals there was a statistically significant negative correlation between the amount of MAP shedding and magnitude of the MAP-specific cellular immune response. Direct fitting of simple mechanistic mathematical models to the shedding data suggested that MAP-specific immune responses contributed significantly to the kinetics of MAP shedding in most animals. However, whereas the MAP-specific cellular immune response was predicted to suppress shedding in some animals, in other animals it was predicted to increase shedding. In contrast, MAP-specific humoral response was always predicted to increase shedding. Our results illustrate the use of mathematical methods to understand relationships between mycobacteria and immunity in vivo but also highlight problems with establishing cause-effect links from observational data.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13567-015-0204-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The transmission of phocine herpesvirus-1 in rehabilitating and free-ranging Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in California

Phocine herpesvirus-1 (PhHV-1) causes regular outbreaks of disease in neonatal harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) at rehabilitation centers in Europe and in the U.S. To investigate transmission of this virus samples were collected from harbor seal pups during exposure studies at a Californian rehabilitation center from 1999 to 2002 and from free-ranging harbor seals off central California during the same period. The exposure studies provided evidence that PhHV-1 can be transmitted horizontally between animals most likely through direct contact with oro-nasal secretions. However vertical transmission may also occur, as adult female harbor seals were found to be shedding the virus in vaginal and nasal secretions, and premature newborn pups had evidence of early infection. Results also indicated that PhHV-1 infections were common in both free-ranging (40%, 49/121) and rehabilitating (54%, 46/85) young harbor seals, during the spring and early summer. This timing, which correlated with pupping and weaning, suggested that the majority of animals were infected and infective with PhHV-1 between pupping and breeding.     

Predicting fadeout versus persistence of paratuberculosis in a dairy cattle herd for management and control purposes: a modelling study

ABSTRACT: Epidemiological models enable to better understand the dynamics of infectious diseases and to assess ex-ante control strategies. For Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map), possible transmission routes have been described, but Map spread in a herd and the relative importance of the routes are currently insufficiently understood to prioritize control measures. We aim to predict early after Map introduction in a dairy cattle herd whether infection is likely to fade out or persist, when no control measures are implemented, using a modelling approach. Both vertical transmission and horizontal transmission via the ingestion of colostrum, milk, or faeces present in the contaminated environment were modelled. Calf-to-calf indirect transmission was possible. Six health states were represented: susceptible, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, clinically affected, and resistant. The model was partially validated by comparing the simulated prevalence with field data. Housing facilities and contacts between animals were specifically considered for calves and heifers. After the introduction of one infected animal in a naive herd, fadeout occurred in 66% of the runs. When Map persisted, the prevalence of infected animals increased to 88% in 25 years. The two main transmission routes were via the farm's environment and in utero transmission. Calf-to-calf transmission was minor. Fadeout versus Map persistence could be differentiated with the number of clinically affected animals, which was rarely above one when fadeout occurred. Therefore, early detection of affected animals is crucial in preventing Map persistence in dairy herds.     

Evaluation of serum and milk ELISAs for paratuberculosis in Danish dairy cattle

A milk and a serum ELISA for detection of antibodies against Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) were evaluated against the complement-fixation test (CFT) and culture of faecal samples from 580 cows collected between August 1996 and December 1996. Milk and serum were obtained concurrently from six dairy herds infected with MAP and from two dairy herds without history of infection with MAP.

A cut-off value of 7 OD% was used in the ELISAs. At this cut-off value, all six culture-positive herds were positive in the serum ELISA but one was negative in the milk ELISA. All six culture-positive herds were positive in the CFT. In the two culture-negative herds, the serum and the milk ELISA deemed all serum samples negative at this cut-off value, whereas four serum samples from one of these herds were positive in the CFT. The highest cut-off value enabling the milk ELISA to record all six culture-positive herds as positive was 4 OD%. The highest cut-off value enabling the serum ELISA to record all six culture-positive herds as positive was 17 OD%. Individual-sample relative sensitivities of the ELISAs ranged from 49 to 64% and relative specificities were 80–96% at the cut-off values of 4, 7 and 17 OD%.     

Quantification of vertical and horizontal transmission of Neospora caninum infection in Dutch dairy herds

Ninety-six of 108 randomly selected Dutch dairy herds had one or more cows with a positive serostatus for N. caninum. In these 96 herds, we have quantified the probabilities of vertical transmission (VT) and horizontal transmission (HT) of N. caninum infection by combining serostatus and pedigree data in 4091 dam-daughter pairs. The probability of animals infected by vertical transmission during pregnancy (Prob(VT)) was calculated as the proportion of seropositive daughters among daughters of seropositive dams. The probability of animals infected by horizontal transmission (Prob(HT)) was the proportion of seropositive daughters among daughters of seronegative dams. These probabilities were calculated after the frequencies of observed dam-daughter combinations were corrected for (1) imperfect test-characteristics, (2) underestimation of horizontal transmission in situations that seronegative dams were horizontally infected after the birth of their daughters and (3) overestimation of vertical transmission in situations that seronegative daughters born from seropositive dams were horizontally infected. The incidence rate for horizontal transmission was calculated based on Prob(HT) and the average age of the animals in these herds. Based on the analysis of dam-daughter serology, Prob(VT) was 61.8% (95% CI: 57.5-66.0%) and Prob(HT) was 3.3% (95% CI: 2.7-3.9%). After adjusting the observed frequencies for imperfect test-characteristics, underestimation of horizontal transmission and overestimation of vertical transmission, Prob(VT) decreased to 44.9% (95% CI: 40.0-49.9%) while Prob(HT) increased to 4.5% (95% CI: 3.9-5.2%). Prob(HT) corresponded with an incidence rate for horizontal transmission of 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2-1.7) infections per 100 cow-years at risk. When stratifying herds for the presence of farm dogs, Prob(HT) was higher (5.5% (95% CI: 4.6-6.4%)) in herds with farm dogs than in herds without farm dogs (2.3% (95% CI: 1.5-3.4%)). When stratifying for within-herd seroprevalence, Prob(HT) was higher (10.3% (95% CI: 8.6-12.2%)) in herds with high (> or =10%) within-herd seroprevalence compared with herds with low (<10%) within-herd seroprevalence (2.0% (95% CI: 1.5-2.6%)). Although there was this relation between Prob(HT) and within-herd seroprevalence (crude OR(PREV) = 5.7 (95% CI: 4.0-7.9)), in herds without farm dogs, this relationship was no longer statistical significant (OR(PREV|DOG-) = 1.9 (95% CI: 0.7-5.5)). It indicated that the association between seroprevalence and Prob(HT) depended largely on the presence of farm dogs. In addition, when looking for the presence of specific age-groups with significantly higher seroprevalence compared with the rest of the herd, there were 7 herds in which two or more horizontally-infected animals were present in specific age-groups. This was an indication of a recent point-source exposure to N. caninum. These results reiterate the current control strategies to apply strict dog-management measures as well as to minimize within-herd seroprevalence by monitoring serostatus of animals.     

Within-herd contact structure and transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in a persistently infected dairy cattle herd

Within-herd transmission of pathogens occurs either by direct or by indirect contact between susceptible and infected animals. In dairy herds that are structured into groups, the way in which animals encounter each other and share an environment can affect pathogen transmission. Dairy cattle are heterogeneous in terms of susceptibility and infectivity with respect to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) transmission. It is mainly young animals that are susceptible and adults that are infectious. Both vertical and horizontal transmission through the ingestion of Map shed into the environment by adults and transiently infected calves can occur. Our objective was to assess the effect of contact structure on Map transmission in persistently infected dairy herds and to examine the effect of isolating calves from other calves or from adults before weaning. We developed a stochastic compartmental model of Map transmission in a closed dairy herd. The model reflects the Map infection process and herd management characteristics. Indirect transmission via the environment was modelled explicitly. Six infection states (susceptible, resistant, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, and clinically affected) and two contaminated farm area environments (whole farm and calf area) were modelled. Calves were housed in hutches, individual indoor pens, or group indoor pens. Two different levels of exposure of calves to a farm environment contaminated by adults were possible: no exposure and indirect exposure through fomites. Three herd sizes were studied. We found that contacts between calves before weaning did not influence Map transmission in a herd, whereas the level of exposure of calves to an environment contaminated by adults and the starting age of exposure of calves to adults were pivotal. Early culling of clinically affected adults led to a lower prevalence of infectious adults over time. The results were independent of herd size. Despite the many transmission routes that are known, the best control approach is to limit the exposure of calves to adult faeces through the systematic separation of adults and calves in combination with hygiene measures. Reducing contact between calves does not appear effective.     

Quantification of the transmission of classical swine fever virus between herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this study, we describe a method to quantify the transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) between herds from data collected during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. From the contacts between infected herds and the serological findings shortly before depopulation, we estimated the week of virus introduction and the length of the period over which the herd emitted virus for each CSFV-infected herd. From these data, we estimated the infection-rate parameter β (the average number of herds infected by one infectious herd during one week) and the herd reproduction ratio, R_h (the average total number of secondary outbreaks caused by one infectious herd, i.e. in its entire infectious period), using a SIR-model for different sets of CSF control measures. When R_h > 1, an epidemic continues to grow. On the other hand, when R_h < 1 an epidemic will fade out.

During the phase before the first outbreak was diagnosed and no specific measures had been implemented, β was estimated at 1.09 and R_h at 6.8. In the subsequent phase infected herds were depopulated, movement restrictions were implemented, infected herds were traced forward and backward and the herds in the protection and surveillance zones were clinically inspected by the veterinary authorities (regional screening). This set of measures significantly reduced β to 0.38. However, R_h was 1.3 and thus still >1. Consequently, the number of outbreaks continued to grow. After a number of additional measures were implemented, the value of R_h was reduced to 0.5 and the epidemic came to an end. These measures included pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located near an infected herd, increased hygienic procedures, replacement of transports of pigs for welfare reasons by killing of young piglets and a breeding ban, and regional screening for CSF-infected herds by local veterinary practitioners.     

Control of foot-and-mouth disease through vaccination and the isolation of infected animals

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) within Saudi Arabian dairy herds has been controlled for the past decade through vaccination. Data from 19 outbreaks on Saudi farms has suggested that the durability of these vaccines extended for 2.5 months, providing an 81–98% level of protection. Vaccination has nevertheless failed to prevent the establishment and sometimes persistence of the disease. This is probably because the highly contagious nature of FMD creates increasing levels of viral excretion during an outbreak, and the co-habitation in Saudi farms of affected/susceptible animals following diagnosis, predisposes the herds to re-infection. Pre-clinical excretion of the virus leads to the infection of additional in-contact susceptible animals prior to diagnosis, so the isolation of clinically infected animals does not guarantee a removal of infection. Saudi Arabian farms are subdivided into managed farm pens and isolation (away from the farm) of all animals in infected pens not only removes the infectious individuals showing clinical signs, but also those that are sub-clinical and excreting virus. Simulations suggest that removing all infectious animals from the herd significantly reduces the per cent infected in the herd.     

Comparison of fecal culture and F57 real-time polymerase chain reaction for the detection of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in Swiss cattle herds with a history of paratuberculosis

Background

Bovine paratuberculosis is an incurable chronic granulomatous enteritis caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). The prevalence of MAP in the Swiss cattle population is hard to estimate, since only a few cases of clinical paratuberculosis are reported to the Swiss Federal Food Safety and Veterinary Office each year.Fecal samples from 1,339 cattle (855 animals from 12 dairy herds, 484 animals from 11 suckling cow herds, all herds with a history of sporadic paratuberculosis) were investigated by culture and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for shedding of MAP.

Results

By culture, MAP was detected in 62 of 445 fecal pools (13.9%), whereas PCR detected MAP in 9 of 445 pools (2.0%). All 186 samples of the 62 culture-positive pools were reanalyzed individually. By culture, MAP was grown from 59 individual samples (31.7%), whereas PCR detected MAP in 12 individual samples (6.5%), all of which came from animals showing symptoms of paratuberculosis during the study. Overall, MAP was detected in 10 out of 12 dairy herds (83.3%) and in 8 out of 11 suckling cow herds (72.7%).

Conclusions

There is a serious clinically inapparent MAP reservoir in the Swiss cattle population. PCR cannot replace culture to identify individual MAP shedders but is suitable to identify MAP-infected herds, given that the amount of MAP shed in feces is increasing in diseased animals or in animals in the phase of transition to clinical disease.     

Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To develop a spatial epidemic model to simulate intraherd and interherd transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds, representing beef, dairy, swine, goats, and sheep, and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Using Monte-Carlo simulations, a spatial stochastic epidemic simulation model was developed to identify new herds that would acquire FMD following random selection of an index herd and to assess progression of an epidemic after implementation of mandatory control strategies. RESULTS: The model included species-specific transition periods for FMD infection, locations of herds, rates of direct and indirect contacts among herds, and probability distributions derived from expert opinions on probabilities of transmission by direct and indirect contact, as well as reduction in contact following implementation of restrictions on movements in designated infected areas and surveillance zones. Models of supplemental control programs included slaughter of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and vaccination of all animals within a 5- to 50-km radius of infected herds. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The FMD model represents a tool for use in planning biosecurity and emergency-response programs and in comparing potential benefits of various strategies for control and eradication of FMD appropriate for specific populations.     

Prevalence estimates for paratuberculosis adjusted for test variability using Bayesian analysis

The ELISA tests that are available to detect an infection with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) have a limited validity expressed as the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp). In many studies, the Se and Sp of the tests are treated as constants and this will result in an underestimation of the variability of the true prevalence (TP). Bayesian inference provided a natural framework for using information on the test variability (i.e., the uncertainty) in the estimates of test Se and Sp when estimating the TP.

Data from two prevalence studies for MAP using an ELISA in several regions in two locations were available for the analyses. In location 1, all cattle of at least 3 years of age were sampled in approximately 90 randomly sampled herds in each of the four regions of the country. In location 2, in 30 randomly sampled herds in each of three regions, approximately 30 randomly selected cows were sampled. Information about the unknown test Se and Sp and MAP prevalence was incorporated into a Bayesian model by joint prior probability distributions. Posterior estimates were obtained by combining the actual likelihood with the prior distributions using Bayes’ formula.

The corrected cow-level TP (proportion of infected cows in a herd) was low, 5.8 and 3.6% in locations 1 and 2, respectively. Certain regions within a location differed significantly in herd-level TP (proportion of infected herds). The herd-level TP was 54.3% in location 1 (95% credible interval (CI) 46.1, 63.3%) and 32.9% in location 2 (95% CI: 14.4, 73.3%). The variation in the herd-level TP estimate for location 2 was more than three times as large as the variation in location 1 mainly because of the relatively small number of investigated herds in location 2. In future prevalence studies for MAP, sample size calculations should be based on a very low cow-level prevalence. Approximately 50 and 90% of the herds in the current study had an estimated cow-level TP below 4 and 10%, respectively.