Milankovitch forcing of the last interglacial sea level

During the last interglacial, sea level was as high as present, 4000 to 6000 years before peak Northern Hemisphere insolation receipt 126,000 years ago. The sea-level results are shown to be consistent with climate models, which simulate a 3 degrees to 4 degrees C July temperature increase from 140,000 to 130,000 years ago in high latitudes, with all Northern Hemisphere land areas being warmer than present by 130,000 years ago. The early warming occurs because obliquity peaked earlier than precession and because precession values were greater than present before peak precessional forcing occurred. These results indicate that a fuller understanding of the Milankovitch-climate connection requires consideration of fields other than just insolation forcing at 65 degrees N.     

Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages

1) Three indices of global climate have been monitored in the record of the past 450,000 years in Southern Hemisphere ocean-floor sediments. 2) Over the frequency range 10(-4) to 10(-5) cycle per year, climatic variance of these records is concentrated in three discrete spectral peaks at periods of 23,000, 42,000, and approximately 100,000 years. These peaks correspond to the dominant periods of the earth's solar orbit, and contain respectively about 10, 25, and 50 percent of the climatic variance. 3) The 42,000-year climatic component has the same period as variations in the obliquity of the earth's axis and retains a constant phase relationship with it. 4) The 23,000-year portion of the variance displays the same periods (about 23,000 and 19,000 years) as the quasi-periodic precession index. 5) The dominant, 100,000-year climatic [See table in the PDF file] component has an average period close to, and is in phase with, orbital eccentricity. Unlike the correlations between climate and the higher-frequency orbital variations (which can be explained on the assumption that the climate system responds linearly to orbital forcing), an explanation of the correlation between climate and eccentricity probably requires an assumption of nonlinearity. 6) It is concluded that changes in the earth's orbital geometry are the fundamental cause of the succession of Quaternary ice ages. 7) A model of future climate based on the observed orbital-climate relationships, but ignoring anthropogenic effects, predicts that the long-term trend over the next sevem thousand years is toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation.     

Large-scale variations in the obliquity of Mars

Large-scale variations in the obliquity of the planet Mars are produced by a coupling between the motion of its orbit plane due to the gravitational perturbations of the other planets and the precession of its spin axis which results from the solar torque exerted on the equatorial bulge of the planet. The obliquity oscillates on a time scale of approximately 1.2 x 10(5) years. The amplitude of this oscillation itself varies periodically on a time scale of 1.2 X 10(6) years. The present-day obliquity is approximately 25.1 degrees. The maximum possible variation is from about 14.9 to 35.5 degrees. Signtificant climatic effects must be associated with the phenomenon.     

Plio-Pleistocene ice volume, Antarctic climate, and the global delta18O record

We propose that from approximately 3 to 1 million years ago, ice volume changes occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, each controlled by local summer insolation. Because Earth's orbital precession is out of phase between hemispheres, 23,000-year changes in ice volume in each hemisphere cancel out in globally integrated proxies such as ocean delta18O or sea level, leaving the in-phase obliquity (41,000 years) component of insolation to dominate those records. Only a modest ice mass change in Antarctica is required to effectively cancel out a much larger northern ice volume signal. At the mid-Pleistocene transition, we propose that marine-based ice sheet margins replaced terrestrial ice margins around the perimeter of East Antarctica, resulting in a shift to in-phase behavior of northern and southern ice sheets as well as the strengthening of 23,000-year cyclicity in the marine delta18O record.     

Pleistocene climate: deterministic or stochastic?

Application of a simple linear model to the earth's ice volume record of the past 730,000 years indicates that although forcing by variations in the earth's orbital parameters of tilt and precession is real, it is small (less than 25 percent of the variance in the record). No relationship with the eccentricity is observed. This indicates that the Pleistocene glacial variations are largely stochastic in nature.     

Orbital forcing of the marine isotope stage 9 interglacial

Milankovitch orbital forcing theory has been used to assign time scales to many paleoclimate records. However, the validity of this theory remains uncertain, and independent sea-level chronologies used to test its applicability have been restricted largely to the past approximately 135,000 years. Here, we report U-series ages for coral reefs formed on Henderson Island during sea-level high-stands occurring at approximately 630,000 and approximately 330,000 years ago. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that interglacial climates are forced by Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation centered at 65 degrees N latitude, as predicted by Milankovitch theory.     

Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years

A high-resolution deuterium profile is now available along the entire European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C ice core, extending this climate record back to marine isotope stage 20.2, approximately 800,000 years ago. Experiments performed with an atmospheric general circulation model including water isotopes support its temperature interpretation. We assessed the general correspondence between Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their smoothed Antarctic counterparts for this Dome C record, which reveals the presence of such features with similar amplitudes during previous glacial periods. We suggest that the interplay between obliquity and precession accounts for the variable intensity of interglacial periods in ice core records.     

Relativistic spin precession in the double pulsar

The double pulsar PSR J0737-3039A/B consists of two neutron stars in a highly relativistic orbit that displays a roughly 30-second eclipse when pulsar A passes behind pulsar B. Describing this eclipse of pulsar A as due to absorption occurring in the magnetosphere of pulsar B, we successfully used a simple geometric model to characterize the observed changing eclipse morphology and to measure the relativistic precession of pulsar B's spin axis around the total orbital angular momentum. This provides a test of general relativity and alternative theories of gravity in the strong-field regime. Our measured relativistic spin precession rate of 4.77 degrees (-0 degrees .65)(+0 degrees .66) per year (68% confidence level) is consistent with that predicted by general relativity within an uncertainty of 13%.     

Stability of the Astronomical Frequencies Over the Earth's History for Paleoclimate Studies

The expected changes over the past 500 million years in the principal astronomical frequencies influencing the Earth's climate may be strong enough to be detectable in the geological records, and such effects have been inferred in several cases. Calculations suggest that the shortening of the Earth-moon distance and of the length of the day back in time induced a shortening of the fundamental periods for the obliquity and climatic precession, from 54 to 35, 41 to 29, 23 to 19, and 19 to 16 thousand years over the last half-billion years. At the same time, the precessional constant increased from 50 to 61 arc seconds per year. The changes in the frequencies of the planetary system due to its chaotic motion are much smaller; their influence on the changes of the periods of climatic precession, obliquity, and eccentricity of the Earth's orbit around the sun can be neglected. Eccentricity periods used for Quaternary climate studies may therefore be considered to have been more or less constant for pre-Quaternary times.     

Early Pleistocene glacial cycles and the integrated summer insolation forcing

Long-term variations in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation are generally thought to control glaciation. But the intensity of summer insolation is primarily controlled by 20,000-year cycles in the precession of the equinoxes, whereas early Pleistocene glacial cycles occur at 40,000-year intervals, matching the period of changes in Earth's obliquity. The resolution of this 40,000-year problem is that glaciers are sensitive to insolation integrated over the duration of the summer. The integrated summer insolation is primarily controlled by obliquity and not precession because, by Kepler's second law, the duration of the summer is inversely proportional to Earth's distance from the Sun.     

The heartbeat of the Oligocene climate system

A 13-million-year continuous record of Oligocene climate from the equatorial Pacific reveals a pronounced "heartbeat" in the global carbon cycle and periodicity of glaciations. This heartbeat consists of 405,000-, 127,000-, and 96,000-year eccentricity cycles and 1.2-million-year obliquity cycles in periodically recurring glacial and carbon cycle events. That climate system response to intricate orbital variations suggests a fundamental interaction of the carbon cycle, solar forcing, and glacial events. Box modeling shows that the interaction of the carbon cycle and solar forcing modulates deep ocean acidity as well as the production and burial of global biomass. The pronounced 405,000-year eccentricity cycle is amplified by the long residence time of carbon in the oceans.     

Middle Miocene Southern Ocean cooling and Antarctic cryosphere expansion

Magnesium/calcium data from Southern Ocean planktonic foraminifera demonstrate that high-latitude (approximately 55 degrees S) southwest Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) cooled 6 degrees to 7 degrees C during the middle Miocene climate transition (14.2 to 13.8 million years ago). Stepwise surface cooling is paced by eccentricity forcing and precedes Antarctic cryosphere expansion by approximately 60 thousand years, suggesting the involvement of additional feedbacks during this interval of inferred low-atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). Comparing SSTs and global carbon cycling proxies challenges the notion that episodic pCO2 drawdown drove this major Cenozoic climate transition. SST, salinity, and ice-volume trends suggest instead that orbitally paced ocean circulation changes altered meridional heat/vapor transport, triggering ice growth and global cooling.     

Past orientation of the lunar spin axis

The orientation of the lunar spin axis is traced from the early history of the earth-moon system to the present day. Tides raised on the earth by the moon have caused an expansion of the lunar orbit. Tides raised on the moon by the earth have de-spun the moon to synchronous rotation and driven its spin axis to a Cassini state-that is, in a coprecessing configuration, coplanar with the lunar orbit normal and the normal to the Laplacian plane (which is at present coincident with the normal to the ecliptic). This combination of events has resulted in a complex history for the lunar spin axis. For much of the period during which its orbital semimajor axis expanded between 30 and 40 earth radii, the obliquity of the moon was of order 25 degrees to 50 degrees . In fact, for a brief period the obliquity periodically attained a value as high as 77 degrees ; that is, the spin axis of the moon was only 13 degrees from lying in its orbit plane.     

The Pliocene paradox (mechanisms for a permanent El Niño)

During the early Pliocene, 5 to 3 million years ago, globally averaged temperatures were substantially higher than they are today, even though the external factors that determine climate were essentially the same. In the tropics, El Ni?o was continual (or "permanent") rather than intermittent. The appearance of northern continental glaciers, and of cold surface waters in oceanic upwelling zones in low latitudes (both coastal and equatorial), signaled the termination of those warm climate conditions and the end of permanent El Ni?o. This led to the amplification of obliquity (but not precession) cycles in equatorial sea surface temperatures and in global ice volume, with the former leading the latter by several thousand years. A possible explanation is that the gradual shoaling of the oceanic thermocline reached a threshold around 3 million years ago, when the winds started bringing cold waters to the surface in low latitudes. This introduced feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere interactions that, along with ice-albedo feedbacks, amplified obliquity cycles. A future melting of glaciers, changes in the hydrological cycle, and a deepening of the thermocline could restore the warm conditions of the early Pliocene.     

Monsoon Climate of the Early Holocene: Climate Experiment with the Earth's Orbital Parameters for 9000 Years Ago

Values for the precession and obliquity of the earth 9000 years ago indicate that the global average solar radiation for July 9000 years ago was 7 percent greater than at present. When the estimated solar radiation values are used in a low-resulation climate model, the model simulates an intensified continent-scale monsoon circulation. This result agrees with paleoclimatic evidence from Africa, Arabia, and India that monsoon rains were stronger between 10,000 and 5000 years ago than they are today.     

Why does the Earth spin forward?

The spins of the terrestrial planets likely arose as the planets formed by the accretion of planetesimals. Depending on the masses of the impactors, the planet's final spin can either be imparted by many small bodies (ordered accretion), in which case the spin is determined by the mean angular momentum of the impactors, or by a few large bodies (stochastic accretion), in which case the spin is a random variable whose distribution is determined by the root-mean-square angular momentum of the impactors. In the case of ordered accretion, the planet's obliquity is expected to be near 0 degrees or 180 degrees , whereas, if accretion is stochastic, there should be a wide range of obliquities. Analytic arguments and extensive orbital integrations are used to calculate the expected distributions of spin rate and obliquity as a function of the planetesimal mass and velocity distributions. The results imply that the spins of the terrestrial planets are determined by stochastic accretion.     

Climate response to orbital forcing across the Oligocene-Miocene boundary

Spectral analyses of an uninterrupted 5.5-million-year (My)-long chronology of late Oligocene-early Miocene climate and ocean carbon chemistry from two deep-sea cores recovered in the western equatorial Atlantic reveal variance concentrated at all Milankovitch frequencies. Exceptional spectral power in climate is recorded at the 406-thousand-year (ky) period eccentricity band over a 3.4-million-year period [20 to 23.4 My ago (Ma)] as well as in the 125- and 95-ky bands over a 1.3-million-year period (21.7 to 23.0 Ma) of suspected low greenhouse gas levels. Moreover, a major transient glaciation at the epoch boundary ( approximately 23 Ma), Mi-1, corresponds with a rare orbital congruence involving obliquity and eccentricity. The anomaly, which consists of low-amplitude variance in obliquity (a node) and a minimum in eccentricity, results in an extended period ( approximately 200 ky) of low seasonality orbits favorable to ice-sheet expansion on Antarctica.     

Mars: change in axial tilt due to climate?

The average tilt of Mars' equator with respect to its orbital plane may have increased significantly over the age of the solar system. Obliquity oscillations might have induced changes in the climate, which altered the mass distribution and hence the solar torque on the planet. Viscous deformation attributable to loading by the large polar caps expected at low obliquity may have induced secular changes in the axial tilt. Earth-like effective viscosities can account for virtually the entire present obliquity of 24.4 degrees. Thus the present average tilt of Mars may not be primordial.     

The extreme Kuiper Belt binary 2001 QW322

The study of binary Kuiper Belt objects helps to probe the dynamic conditions present during planet formation in the solar system. We report on the mutual-orbit determination of 2001 QW322, a Kuiper Belt binary with a very large separation whose properties challenge binary-formation and -evolution theories. Six years of tracking indicate that the binary's mutual-orbit period is approximately 25 to 30 years, that the orbit pole is retrograde and inclined 50 degrees to 62 degrees from the ecliptic plane, and, most surprisingly, that the mutual orbital eccentricity is <0.4. The semimajor axis of 105,000 to 135,000 kilometers is 10 times that of other near-equal-mass binaries. Because this weakly bound binary is prone to orbital disruption by interlopers, its lifetime in its present state is probably less than 1 billion years.     

Mars north polar deposits: stratigraphy, age, and geodynamical response

The Shallow Radar (SHARAD) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has imaged the internal stratigraphy of the north polar layered deposits of Mars. Radar reflections within the deposits reveal a laterally continuous deposition of layers, which typically consist of four packets of finely spaced reflectors separated by homogeneous interpacket regions of nearly pure ice. The packet/interpacket structure can be explained by approximately million-year periodicities in Mars' obliquity or orbital eccentricity. The observed approximately 100-meter maximum deflection of the underlying substrate in response to the ice load implies that the present-day thickness of an equilibrium elastic lithosphere is greater than 300 kilometers. Alternatively, the response to the load may be in a transient state controlled by mantle viscosity. Both scenarios probably require that Mars has a subchondritic abundance of heat-producing elements.