基于层次分析法的可再生能源开发及投资决策

可再生能源的合理开发和投资决策需要考虑大量复杂的影响因素。为此，运用层次分析法建立浙江省可再生能源开发及投资决策的评价体系．将定性的综合决策转化为具体的定量决策。在确定客观判断矩阵的基础上，获得了各种影响因素及能源形式分配的权值，以供有关部门参考。     

Regional partnerships to assist public-private investments in irrigation systems

Public-private partnerships have been implemented throughout the world since the 1970s with mixed results. This is mainly due to the lack of long run commitments from governments and other parties involved, lack of scientific understanding regarding clear short-term and long-term potential biophysical and socio-economic, policy and legal consequences, and lack of trust between the partners. We present a Regional Irrigation Business Partnership (RIBP) model, which is capable of efficiently utilising research output and government policies for sustainable public-private irrigation planning and investment. Unlike other public-private partnership models, the RIBP is based on robust assessment of biophysical, hydrologic, socio-economic, political and legal aspects of water management. The RIBP model provides a crucial link between research and infrastructure investments while minimising short-term and long-term risks. The business investment framework involves iterative feedback from research and policy for identifying markets, defining products and establishing a legislatively and institutionally acceptable route to market as part of the feasibility assessment process. The RIBP model is based on the principle that sharing risks, rewards, and responsibilities coupled with sufficient investment incentives will motivate actors in water management to invest in irrigation infrastructure that saves water and generates better outcomes for the environment. We describe application of the RIBP model in the Coleambally Irrigation Area in New South Wales, Australia.     

农机制造业战略投资决策的实物期权分析

农业机械化是实现农业现代化的根本保证,"三农"对农机制造业产品的需求具有较大的不确定性.为此,运用实物期权方法研究不确定条件下农机制造业的战略投资决策最佳投资时点选择问题,利用案例说明在净现值大于零时立刻执行投资决策未必是最优的,投资者具有延迟期权等,克服了传统的折现现金流投资估价方法的不足.同时,对影响投资阈值的相关影响因素与多项目条件下的实物期权决策进行了分析,对投资决策具有指导意义.     

关联分析法在节水灌溉项目投资决策中的应用

在节水灌溉项目投资方案优选的决策过程中,所依赖的信息是"部分完全的"或称"贫信息性",这正是多个方案优选决策的"灰色性"。投资方案的优选决策是一项复杂的、多项因素的工作,要考虑的目标很多,其评价因素和优选结论都具有"不确定性",这实际上是一个多目标的决策问题。针对多个投资方案的优选问题,引入灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析法,通过建立灰靶决策模型对投资方案进行优选,提高了优选的精确性和客观性,并通过实例说明应用灰色关联分析法来解决多目标的方案决策问题是可行的。     

基于熵权的导流标准多目标决策分析

通过分析决策方案目标集．采用信息熵权与决策者的主观权重相结合的方法确定综合权重．运用多目标决策理论，建立导流标准多目标模糊优选模型。该模型系统地考虑了决策方案目标集的客观因素和决策者的主观因素。通过锦屏一级水电站施工导流标准的决策分析，说明该方法和模型是有效的．很好地解决了导流工程的施工强度、投资及风险损失的关系。     

Investment decision model for drip irrigation system

Drip irrigation is becoming popular in India although the decision to shift to drip irrigation from surface irrigation is not backed up by solid economic factors. It is not that the factors do not justify the shift, but that insufficient study has been done to document the conditions under which a change is justified. The investment decision for shifting to drip irrigation will depend upon many factors; including cost of cultivation, productivity, yield gain factor, cost of produce, electricity charges, depth of groundwater and irrigation requirement. These parameters vary from crop to crop, place to place, size of plot, and farmer to farmer. Therefore a sweeping recommendation suitable for all conditions cannot be made. In view of this, a software program has been developed for estimating the threshold economic value of the investment cost of drip irrigation. In addition to the threshold value of investment cost, the software provides information on energy consumption and net return. The software can be used both for annual crops such as sugarcane or seasonal crops such as vegetable rotations (winter–summer). To demonstrate the interdependence of various input parameters, an analysis has been made using local data in this software. The analysis has provided the relationship between the investment cost and the yield gain factor, the returns from the crop, as well as the savings in energy and the size of the prime mover with regard to the size of the farm.     

农户与农村合作组织在农业投资中的博弈分析

针对我国农业投资不足的现状,建立两阶段动态博弈模型,并就农村合作组织在农业投资中发挥的作用展开分析。模型分析结果表明:在农村合作组织和农户都是理性的前提下,各农户的投资份额与其资本产出弹性系数和劳动力产出弹性系数成反比;最佳资本投入量与其资本产出弹性系数成正比,与资本价格成反比。通过对模型结果分析可知,农村合作组织的存在,使得各农户在保证了农业投资总量的前提下,实现了农业剩余最大。因此,农村合作组织对于农业投资中投资份额的比例分配具有重要的意义。     

Energy usage in British agriculture—A review of future prospects

The sudden increase in the price of oil in 1973/1974 drew attention to the fact that energy resources are not inexhaustible. Since then fossil fuel consumption has risen and is currently close to the 1973 peak level. While agriculture has become technologically more efficient, it has become less efficient in its use of energy during the last few decades.Agricultural production up to the farm gate utilises less than 4% of national power energy consumption while it provides over 55% of the nation's unprocessed food. However, when the total food processing part of this cycle is taken into account nearly 16% of total national energy consumption is used in the overall production and preparation of food. When the biological and industrial energetics are considered, it is apparent that intensive agricultural production has both a low biological efficiency and a comparatively high usage of energy, apart from ruminant meat production under natural grazing conditions. What is needed is a planned use of resources coupled with a reduction in energy inputs without significantly depressing the high current levels of agricultural productivity.The possibility of achieving this objective is discussed. Reference is made to an earlier review by the same authors in which three potentially different sources of energy—straw, livestock wastes for use as fertilisers and livestock wastes for the production of methane—were examined. This paper discusses in detail glasshouse heating, power station waste heat utilisation and the possible exploitation of wind power.The paper concludes that the future for energy usage in agriculture is full of interesting possibilities requiring continuing R&D inputs. Nevertheless, investment in new energy forms must come from government sources, because of the high capital costs and attendant risks.     

投入产出分析在农业经济系统中的应用

农业产业化发展的最终目的是获得更大的经济效益。要获得最大的产投比或者最佳经济效益,必须有最为合理经济投入范围或比例。因此,可以利用符合我国社会主义市场经济规律且已为我国其他部门投资实践活动所成功应用的科学模型,即投入产出模型(投入产出分析),来进行农业系统的经济分析。为此,综述了投入产出分析的思想、内容、方法以及这一科学管理方法的具体运用;同时,对在农业方面如何应用投入产出分析实现管理科学化、提高管理水平和经济效益进行探讨.     

燃气冷热电联产节能率的影响因素

燃气冷热电联产的整体效率高于冷、热、电分别生产的传统方式,更有益于环境保护。随着我国能源结构的调整,一次能源中天然气的比例将大幅提高,其利用问题成了电力、市政部门、专家们讨论的热点。文章重点分析然气冷热电联产节能率的影响因素。     

小水电经济分析数学模型及其应用

根据小水电经济特性及目前存在的问题,本文提出的小水电经济分析数学模型,能在许多不确定性因素的情况下,针对选择不同方案和参数的经济比较需要,迅速地计算出相应的投资费用、经济效益以及各种经济指标,为决策方案或参数提供可靠的经济依据。     

植物生长灯光源能效的综合评价模型——基于主成分分析方法

光是植物光合作用的能量源,植物生长灯人工补光技术的应用有助于增强农业产出能力、保障食品安全和加快我国现代农业发展。采用主成分分析方法直观定量地研究了普通白炽灯、卤钨灯、普通直管荧光灯、三基色荧光灯、紧凑型荧光灯、荧光高压汞灯、金属卤化物灯、高压钠灯和高频无极灯等光源的额定功率范围、光效、显色指数、色温与平均寿命等技术指标;识别出了植物生长灯光源技术指标数据的主要成分;主成分分析得分以高频无极灯得分最高,其它依次为高压钠灯、三基色荧光灯、荧光高压汞灯、紧凑型荧光灯、金属卤化物灯、普通直管荧光灯和普通白炽灯,卤钨灯最低。结果表明,模型能全面、客观和科学地对植物生长灯光源能效进行分析与综合评价,辅助植物生长灯在农业领域中的选择与应用。     

基于改进模拟退火算法的多台冷水机组负荷优化分配

将标准模拟退火算法的随机搜索策略改为混沌遍历搜索策略,采取一种特殊的算法确定初始温度以减少冗余迭代次数,增加方差判定准则作为搜索停止的条件,以多台冷水机组总能耗最小为目标,建立最优负荷分配模型,将改进的模拟退火算法应用于多台冷水机组的负荷最优分配。理论分析计算及实际结果均表明,可以实现节能,与通常的负荷分配策略相比,节能4%～11%。     

能值法计算工业供水效益分摊系数

工业供水效益分摊系数,是一个反映与工业和供水两方面有关的多种因素及其相互关系的综合系数,是供水效益准确核算的关键.常用的"投资比法"和"固定资产比法"都仅仅考虑了投资(固定资产)这一单项经济因素,不能反映多种因素的影响,计算结果不尽符合实际.提出以生态经济学的能值方法分析工业生产过程,定义工业供水总能值与生产投入总能值的比值为工业供水效益分摊系数.由于供水能值不仅包括水利工程投资和固定资产,还包括了水资源本身的资产投入;工业系统投入总能值,既包括生产过程投入的能源、原材料及经营费用还包括固定资产投资和人工劳力投入,因此,以此方法计算所得效益分摊系数能客观、真实反映生产过程的全部要素,有利于分析评价水利工程的真实效益.     

寒区沼气工程加热增温过程能耗监测系统的实现

随着我国经济建设和社会文明的高度发展,环境和资源问题日益突出,节能减排的压力越来越大。在我国社会总能耗中,新能源开发能耗占据了相当大的比例。在新能源开发能耗中,寒区沼气工程加热增温能耗的问题尤为突出。为此,以寒区沼气工程加热增温节能标准、能耗监测技术导则为依据,在分析研究能耗监测系统体系的基础上提出了寒区沼气工程加热增温能耗数据存储与处理系统的设计思路,并在生产现场搭建了能耗监测系统的基础平台。该系统能够对寒区沼气工程加热增温的能源利用率和消耗水平进行统计计算,为下一步建立基于寒区沼气工程加热增温节能的能源环境最优控制模型提供基本依据和基础资料。     

河北省利用秸秆发电的现状研究

随着世界经济的发展,资源的短缺和环境的恶化成为各国关注的目标,同时解决这两个问题的一个有效方法是利用秸秆发电.河北省结合本地区经济发展情况和秸秆产出量与利用情况,首先在晋州市建立了秸秆发电厂.为此,阐述了秸秆发电的工作原理及其工作流程,分析了该地区建厂的可行性,进行了投资回收期和收益率的分析.最后得出了在晋州建立秸秆发电厂的可行性结论,为今后我国在各个地区建立秸秆发电厂提供了可靠的理论和数据依据.     

Dynamic programming to determine optimum investments in information technology on dairy farms

The feasibility of integrating the information about a number of information technology (IT) applications on dairy farms is gaining interest because of the potential to improve economic results. In this study optimal investment patterns involving five IT applications are evaluated: (1) automated concentrate feeding systems; (2) measurement of daily physical activity of cows; (3) in-line automated parlour systems recording milk production; (4) milk temperature; and (5) electrical conductivity of milk. The investment decisions are optimised by dynamic programming taking into account price reduction and technical progress over time. The objective is to determine the pattern value of (stepwise) IT investments that maximises the net present over a given planning horizon. Optimal investment patterns are calculated under different assumptions of technical progress, farm characteristics and farm scale. In this way it is determined under which conditions the applications under research would be incorporated. Results for a typical Dutch dairy farm show that the optimal investment pattern includes automated concentrate feeders. The incorporated electronic individual cow identification and hardware facilitates the appraisal of other in-line sensor investments such as activity measurement of cows.     

改进灰关联的配电网降损潜力评估

通过主客观评估相结合的方法量化配电网各网损因子的节能降损空间。首先,对配电网线损类别进行归纳,并建立了配电网能效评估体系。然后,利用基于AHP的变权灰关联算法,分析了电网各网损因子与线损率指标之间的关联度。最后,优选强关联因子建立GM(1,N)预测模型,预测配网各影响因子趋于理想化时的线损率,分析各影响因子的降损潜力及综合潜力。算例表明,改进后的灰关联分析,模型预测精度高,所需样本少计算简便,适合于指导电网节能评估及规划。     

大套第三抽水站辅助设备能耗计算分析

为了解大型泵站辅助设备的能耗情况,以江苏省通榆河北延送水工程大套第三抽水站为例,介绍了大套第三抽水站辅助设备设置情况;通过分析各类辅助设备的运行情况,系统计算了辅助设备运行能耗,分析了各类辅助设备能耗的特点.结果表明,大套第三抽水站辅助设备耗能约占泵站总能耗的3.13%,其中,照明、清污和电机通风等能耗所占比例较大,各占辅助设备总能耗的1/3左右.成果可为大型泵站辅助设备的设计与节能提供参考.     

考虑定常能量损失因子的柱塞泵效率特性建模

针对轴向柱塞泵效率特性模型难以保证全工况下模型预测精度的问题,提出利用定常能量损失因子对现有的轴向柱塞泵总效率计算模型进行优化.首先,利用能量守恒定律对轴向柱塞泵的能量损失构成进行了研究,分析了轴向柱塞泵总效率计算模型误差产生的原因;其次,建立了全工况下轴向柱塞泵效率特性模型,并验证了其有效性;最后,对变排量工况下轴向柱塞泵的效率特性进行仿真分析与试验验证.研究结果表明:在变转速、变压力与变排量工况下,考虑定常能量损失因子的效率特性模型均可准确预测轴向柱塞泵的总效率,且在全工况范围内,模型的效率预测最大相对误差仅为4.8%;考虑定常能量损失因子的柱塞泵总效率模型能够完成全工况范围内轴向柱塞泵总效率的精确预测,这为柱塞泵的节能优化设计与节能控制提供了基础.