农业气象灾害综合评价中权重确定方法的研究

摘 要 福建省气象灾害种类繁多,但对农业生产的影响程度并不相同,只有通过权重的科学确定才能正确评价农业气象综合灾情。如何确定灾害权重,是进行农业气象灾害综合评价的核心问题。本文将主、客观赋权方法（层次分析法、灰色关联分析和熵权法）应用于福建农业气象灾害综合评价中权重的确定,探讨和比较它们在计算气象灾害权重方面的适用性,并在此基础上提出同时体现主观和客观信息的组合赋权法,得到福建农业气象灾害的组合权重,由大到小依次为低温冻害、旱灾、洪涝、风雹。结果表明,由组合赋权法计算的各灾害指标组合权重相比任何一种主、客观方法都更为合理和可靠。     

主成分分析法在承德县森林生态系统健康评价中的应用

从森林生产力要素、森林生态要素、环境要素与胁迫要素4个角度建立指标体系,采用主成分分析方法,对河北省承德县8种不同林型、林龄的林地进行健康状况综合评价。用综合健康指数反映其健康状况。评价结果较客观合理,因此认为主成分分析法在森林生态系统健康评价中的选择指标和确定指标权重方面具备优势,能有效消除评价指标之间的相关影响,并能避免主观赋权法因主观随意性而造成的误差。     

基于AHP-熵权法的生鲜农产品冷链物流安全评价

为提高生鲜农产品质量和优化资源配置，本文以生鲜农产品冷链物流为研究客体，构建了考虑仓储、运输、包装、配送、搬运的生鲜农产品冷链物流安全评价指标体系；并采用AHP法与熵权法相结合的综合赋权法，对综合评价指标的权重进行确定；在此基础上运用模糊物元法对生鲜农产品物流安全进行综合评价；同时选择常州某市场的4家冷链物流商为研究对象进行实证分析。结果表明，在该评价指标体系中，权重较高的评价指标排名对综合排名有重要影响，冷链物流商家应重点关注权重较高的指标并提高其相应能力。     

基于熵值赋权的DTOPSIS法对鲁南地区11个饲用燕麦品种的综合评价研究

为筛选适宜在鲁南地区种植的饲用燕麦品种及探讨燕麦新品种综合评价的方法,利用基于熵值赋权的DTOPSIS法对11个燕麦品种的株高、鲜草产量、干草产量、茎叶比、粗蛋白含量、中性洗涤纤维含量、酸性洗涤纤维含量和相对饲草品质等方面进行综合分析。结果表明,熵值赋权法客观评价了各指标在该评价体系中的重要程度,指标中权重最大的是茎叶比,其余依次是鲜草产量、粗脂肪含量、相对饲草品质、干草产量、粗蛋白含量、株高、中性洗涤纤维含量、粗灰分含量和酸性洗涤纤维含量,符合对燕麦饲料的要求。C_i值排名前5的品种是燕王、牧王、魄力、贝勒和甜燕麦。这5个品种产量较高,综合性状表现优良,适宜在鲁南地区推广种植。     

基于熵权的多目标关联分析及其作物区试综合评估方法与应用

运用熵权系数对农作物品种区试综合评估的权重进行确定,该方法不仅克服了专家调查法和层次分析法等主观随意性强的缺点,并且获得了大量评估性状的有效信息,可以全面客观的评价品种,使综合评价结果更加真实可靠。     

综合指数法定量评价地膜产品综合效应初探

目前,地膜产品应用效果的评价方法难以兼顾作物产量、成本、土壤残膜状况、土壤肥力和地膜机械性能等综合因素.笔者采用戒上型隶属函数确定考核指标的隶属度值,采用相关分析法确定考核指标的权重系数,应用综合指数法定量地对以花生覆膜为例的不同地膜产品应用综合效果的评价方法做初步探讨.数据基于3年定位试验,研究了裸地栽培、普通PE地...     

基于熵值法的农村居民点集约利用评价——以重庆市黔江区为例

本文利用熵值法评价农村居民点集约利用程度,计算出各项指标权重,采用综合加权法得出农村居民点利用的集约度。以重庆市黔江区30个乡镇及全区作为评价对象,根据科学性、系统性、代表性、可操作性原则选取指标后进行实证研究。结果表明：农村居民点土地利用投入对农村居民点土地利用集约度影响最为明显,其次为农村居民点土地利用结构、农村居民点土地利用强度和农村居民点土地利用效益;黔江区农村居民点集约利用水平有待提高,全区总体水平仅为0.0304;黔江区农村居民点集约利用水平区域差异明显。结论：应提高对农村居民点规划、管理、整理的投入;熵值法能够更加客观准确的评价目标;为以后的相关研究提供指标选取参考;仍需进一步应探讨如何提高农村居民点集约利用水平。     

基于数据信息特征的土地资源评价客观赋权方法的研究

目前土地资源评价客观赋权方法种类繁多,而各种赋权方法对同一组指标数据的赋权结果不同,就常见客观赋权方法进行整理和归类,并以甘肃省庄浪县农村居民点整理数据为材料,从客观赋权方法原理出发,基于数据信息特征,引入变异系数、方差膨胀因子,根据指标体系中变异系数均值、方差膨胀因子均值的不同,创造性地构建差异组和相关组,在各指标体系下对赋权方法比较分析。结果表明：（1）利用差异信息赋权的熵权法、变异系数法、均方差法、离差最大化法,熵权法最优;（2）利用差异信息赋权的熵权法和利用重复信息赋权的复相关系数法的赋权结果无趋同性;（3）基于熵权法和复相关系数法的一种组合优化方法。     

农业标准化(苹果)实施与综合效益评价初探

基于苹果产业标准化实施的特点,建立由43个因素指标构成的评价体系,确定了不同指标层次的权重系数。运用模糊数学和层次分析的基本思想,将定性指标量化为定量指标。采用组合赋权法对陕西省苹果标准化实施情况进行评价,评价结果符合陕西苹果产业的实际,并提出了今后陕西苹果产业发展建议与对策。     

玉米苗期抗旱性鉴定研究

用离体叶片的保水率、电导、水势、脯氨酸含量及根冠比对６个玉米品种苗期抗旱性进行初步研究，用五级评分法对各项指标的测定值进行定量表示，经过权重分配进行了抗旱性的综合评价。     

Design and implementation of comprehensive evaluation model for long distance oil-gas pipeline

Existing pipeline safety evaluation models commonly use the subjective methods such as the expert evaluation method, but the subjective consciousness has serious influence on the determination of index weight. Therefore, the match degree of the evaluation and the real condition is low and the evaluation result lacks of comprehensiveness. This paper determines the major evaluation index of long-distance oil-gas pipelines through the analysis of the goals and features of the safety evaluation. Fuzzy mathematics method is applied to build the comprehensive evaluation model of long-distance oil-gas pipelines and to analyze the key technology of the evaluation model. Variation coefficient method and analytic hierarchy process are comprehensively utilized to make a quantitative analysis of the criteria layer weight, and preferential relation matrix and fuzzy consistent matrix are established to determine the index layer weight. Finally, some examples are given to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed model.     

现代都市农业发展水平评价研究

本文采用文献研究法,从评价指标选取原则、评价指标内涵、评价方法3个方面对国内都市现代农业发展水平评价体系文献进行梳理,发现国内都市现代农业发展水平评价体系渐趋完善,评价方法丰富。但还存在着一些问题如：指标内涵的确定主观性太强;文化指标、都市农业观光等功能性指标的研究较少;评价指标权重的确定太过主观能动性;研究对象较单一等。提出了未来应当继续从以下几个方面开展研究：（1）在确定指标时,应当选择典型性的指标,并且以因子分析法为主,使指标更加科学化、合理化;（2）重视文化、都市观光等新兴指标的研究,并与社会、经济、社会发展指标相融合、关联,展现都市农业的多功能特征;（3）在对指标权重进行赋值时,为了避免主观性,多采用数学建模的方式;（4）丰富研究对象,开展不同对象之间的比较研究（包括横向和纵向发展水平比较）。研究为科学评估现代都市农业发展水平、构建现代都市农业发展水平评价体系提供了借鉴。     

Quality Evaluation Indicators for Urban Sideway Traffic Road Lighting

CIE has proposed the semi-cylindrical illuminations as evaluation indicators and the overseas reports nave also been put forward in the use of three-dimensional sense indicators to prevent violations based on the assessment of lighting to create efficient, economic, safe and comfortable urban traffic lighting environments. But this required experimental verifications. The study used subjective and objective experiment methods to survey the parts of the sidewalk lighting in Chongqing urban. Through extensive testing information disposals and analyses, the autrors illumination should be the optimal parameters of sidewalk lighting and exist problems at present. The computer gray separation method is first used in analysing the facial features of pedestrians at night. It gets the scope of applications and application conditions of three-dimensional sense. The study provide an experimental basis and scientific method for constituting sidewalk lighting evaluation indicators, and provided important values for the study of sidewalk lighting evaluation indicators.     

农村集中供水管理存在的问题及改革建议

对湖北省荆州市8个县市区农村集中供水厂抽样调查显示,乡镇集中供水厂设施不完善,出厂水和使用自来水农户的生活用水水样均有1-3项指标超过国家规定标准,集中供水管理十分混乱,饮水安全存在较大不确定性。制定农村集中供水管理的法规,明确农村安全饮水的公益事业性质,明确地方政府在农村饮水安全中的责任,明确供水工程折旧提留费用管理办法,明确农村饮水安全管理责任追究办法,才能确保农村集中供水安全长效发展。     

A Leading Indicator Model for Ohio SMSA Employment

ABSTRACT The methodology used to build a leading indicator model for Ohio SMSA employment is described in this paper. A composite leading indicator series for each of the eight major metropolitan areas and the state of Ohio was constructed. These composite indicators appear to work well in a “real-time” simulation of their actual use. The methodology employed here departs from traditional methods for constructing such leading indicators in the approach to weighting the individual indicator series in order to devise a composite index. An econometric approach to determining the weights was employed. The weighting method can be said to be “optimal” in that the weights were chosen to maximize the out-of-sample ability of the composite index to detect future changes in economic activity, proxied here by the level of employment. This approach to weighting the component series in devising a composite index is computationally expensive, since it requires that a number of models be estimated and simulated in an actual use environment. It does overcome the usual subjective nature of the weighting schemes employed, and has resulted in composite indexes for the eight metropolitan areas and Ohio that perform quite well.     

Determination to Weighting Coefficient of Combination Forecast Based on Rough Set Theory

The problem of determination to weighting coefficient is a key and difficulty for combination forecast. A method of determining weighting coefficient based on rough set theory is showed in this paper. Determining weighting coefficient is translated into estimating significance of attributes among rough set. A relation data model about combination forecast is established. Knowledge systems are built through making attribute value into eigenvalue. Under data moving, the weighting coefficients of a combination forecast model are computed by analyzing the dependence and significance of forecasting method for the predicted object. The proposed approach overcomes the subjectivity of traditional determination to weighting coefficient, avoids computing linear or nonlinear extremum problem and makes combination forecast more objective. The validity of the proposed approach is verified with a case.