Dutch paratuberculosis programme history, principles and development

Organised disease control started in the Netherlands in the 18th century with governmental attempts to eradicate cattle plague. At the beginning of the 20th century, the dairy industry and cattle breeding organisations initiated a programme to control infectious diseases by means of a complex system of rewards and penalties. This was also the reason for establishing the Animal Health Service in Friesland in 1919. The history of programmes to control paratuberculosis in sheep, goats, and cattle in various countries is described. The vaccination of young animals seems to be an effective measure in the prevention of clinical paratuberculosis, although changes in management and hygiene practices are also important. A control programme for infectious cattle diseases has a number of phases (a lifecycle) and different components. Two components are essential for success, namely: open and regular communication with farmers, veterinary practitioners, and other people involved and a good registration and identification system for cattle, herds, and veterinary practitioners. The Dutch paratuberculosis programme has 10 herd status levels: 5-10 for non-suspect herds and 1-4 for infected herds or herds of unknown status. The higher the status, the greater the chance that a herd is free of paratuberculosis. An outline is given of the Dutch paratuberculosis programme including its objectives, basic principles for eradication, communication plan, legal action, logistic considerations, and complementary research programme.     

Seroprevalence and risk factors for leptospirosis in cattle,sheep, and goats at consorted rearing from the State of Piauí, northeastern Brazil

Leptospirosis is an endemic disease in Latin America, caused by pathogenic bacteria of the genus Leptospira. It is considered one of the main causes responsible for the negative economic impact on global livestock by causing reproductive problems. The research aimed to determine the prevalence of leptospirosis in cattle, sheep, and goats at consorted rearing in the micro-region of Teresina, Piauí state, northeastern Brazil, as well as to identify prevalent serovars and risk factors associated with seroprevalence. Serum samples were analyzed in 336 sheep, 292 goats, and 253 cattle using microscopic agglutination test (MAT). Overall, 378 samples were positive to MAT, with seroprevalence of 42.9%. The prevalences in cattle, sheep, and goats were 50.5, 40.5, and 34.6%, respectively. All herds presented at least one seropositive animal; the Hardjo/Wolffi serovar association was the most common in cattle and Icterohaemorrhagiae in goats and sheep. Beef production (OR?=?4.9), cattle herd over 35 animals (OR?=?4.0), feeding on pasture (OR?=?6.4), weir and/or stream as water source (OR?=?2.1), and no veterinary services (OR?=?2.9) were risk factors for cattle infection. For sheep, intensive management system (OR?=?5.3), suspended slatted facilities (OR?=?2.2), more than 20 sheep in reproductive age (OR?=?1.9), and absence of deworming (OR?=?3.5) were the risk factors, while for goats, the identified risk factors were sheep herd over 52 animals (OR?=?1.9) and no veterinary services (OR?=?1.8). We conclude that the infection was spreading in consorted herds in this region. Thus, it would be interesting and important to conduct educative activities to farmers on the economic impacts of this disease and the need of preventive and control strategies mainly focused on sanitary measures and animal handling.     

Milk quality assurance for paratuberculosis: simulation of within-herd infection dynamics and economics

A bulk milk quality assurance programme for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in dairy herds was simulated with a stochastic simulation model (JohneSSim). The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological and economic effects of preventive management measures and various test schemes in a simulated population of closed Dutch dairy herds over a 20-year period. Herds were certified as ;low-Map bulk milk' if, with a certain probability, the concentration of Map in bulk milk did not exceed a maximum acceptable concentration of 10(3) Map organisms per litre (based on pasteurisation studies). The programme started with an initial assessment; test-negative herds entered a surveillance procedure and test-positive herds a control procedure. The simulations showed that herd examinations by ELISA for the initial assessment, surveillance and control procedures effectively ensure the quality of ;low-Map bulk milk': > 75% of simulated herds were certified and > 96% of certified herds produced bulk milk with < 10(3) Map/L if the initial herd-level prevalence was 30%. Preventive management measures only had a minor effect on bulk milk quality of certified herds. Culling based on biennial faecal culture was more effective than culling based on annual ELISA. Average total discounted costs for 20-year participation in a programme consisting of initial assessment by ELISA, surveillance by biennial ELISA and control by biennial faecal culture were 16 Euro x 10(3) per herd. In conclusion, this study shows that a bulk milk quality assurance programme for closed Dutch dairy herds is feasible and provides information on the cost-effectiveness of different programmes. The concepts of this study equally apply to other countries because mechanisms of paratuberculosis infection, disease, and testing are comparable in other dairy cattle populations.     

Dairy goat demography and Q fever infection dynamics

Between 2007 and 2009, the largest human Q fever epidemic ever described occurred in the Netherlands. The source was traced back to dairy goat farms, where abortion storms had been observed since 2005. Since one putative cause of these abortion storms is the intensive husbandry systems in which the goats are kept, the objective of this study was to assess whether these could be explained by herd size, reproductive pattern and other demographic aspects of Dutch dairy goat herds alone. We adapted an existing, fully parameterized simulation model for Q fever transmission in French dairy cattle herds to represent the demographics typical for Dutch dairy goat herds. The original model represents the infection dynamics in a herd of 50 dairy cows after introduction of a single infected animal; the adapted model has 770 dairy goats. For a full comparison, herds of 770 cows and 50 goats were also modeled. The effects of herd size and goat versus cattle demographics on the probability of and time to extinction of the infection, environmental bacterial load and abortion rate were studied by simulation. The abortion storms could not be fully explained by demographics alone. Adequate data were lacking at the moment to attribute the difference to characteristics of the pathogen, host, within-herd environment, or a combination thereof. The probability of extinction was higher in goat herds than in cattle herds of the same size. The environmental contamination was highest within cattle herds, which may be taken into account when enlarging cattle farming systems.     

Progress in national control and assurance programs for bovine Johne's disease in Australia

Cattle strains of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis are known to infect cattle, goats and alpaca in southeastern Australia, where there are also significant numbers of farmed deer. Although sheep strains have recently been identified in some cattle in Australia, epidemiological evidence to date supports the distinction (between bovine Johne's disease (JD), caused by cattle strains in cattle, goats and alpaca, and ovine JD, caused by sheep strains in sheep and goats) for the purposes of control and assurance programs. The National Johne's Disease Control Program is coordinated by the Australian Animal Health Council, working with the livestock industries and with the Commonwealth, state and territory governments. The council also brokers industry and government funding for the program. The National Johne's Disease Market Assurance Program for Cattle was launched in 1996 as the first of a suite of voluntary national market assurance programs (MAPs) to assess and certify herds as negative for JD. By December 1998, over 550 herds had achieved an assessed negative status. A MAP was also launched for alpaca in 1998 and a program for goats should be finalized in early 1999. National standards for state control of JD through zoning, movement controls and procedures in infected and suspect herds have also been developed. The paper covers factors affecting development and implementation, uptake of and improvements to national control and assurance programs for bovine JD in Australia.     

Further observations on the impact of a veterinary programme in Afghanistan on seasonal livestock mortality

This paper reports further results of a two year livestock mortality survey in Afghanistan, where a war of more than a decade had completely disrupted the veterinary field services. A questionnaire-based survey to measure the impact of a veterinary field programme indicated that average annual mortality in cattle, sheep, and goats was substantially lower in districts that received veterinary services (covered districts) than in districts without any veterinary services (control districts). The impact of the programme varies according to the season and the age group of the animals involved. The programme lacked impact in winter, in particular in adult small ruminants. The highest impact was noted in the spring and autumn for adult goats, and summer and autumn for adult sheep.The impact of the programme was also limited (in small ruminants even completely absent) during the suckling period in young animals. The highest impact was noted in the post-weaning period in small ruminants, when approximately four times more lambs and kids died in the control districts than in the covered districts.It was concluded that the major impact of the veterinary programme was achieved when animals are in contact with other flocks during grazing seasons, when parasitic and infectious diseases are present and against which the veterinary programme is directed. Additional inputs – including extension activities – are therefore required to improve the effect of the programme in the winter and in the neonatal period.     

Herd management practices associated with paratuberculosis seroprevalence in Dutch dairy herds

We describe the paratuberculosis management practices applied in dairy herds in the Netherlands. The findings from paratuberculosis seronegative and seropositive herds were compared to discover possible risk factors. In total, 370 randomly selected herds with > or =20 dairy cows were surveyed. A questionnaire was used to collect data on current and previous paratuberculosis management practices. All cattle aged > or =3 years were serologically tested for paratuberculosis using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Herds with >33 tested cattle, of which only one was seropositive, were excluded to reduce the risk of including false-positive herds in the analysis. A comparison of the management data of the seronegative herds (n = 166) and the seropositive herds (n = 143) showed that in both groups important management measures for the prevention of paratuberculosis, such as calving in a cleaned calving area, removing the calf immediately after birth, and feeding paratuberculosis non-suspect roughage to calves, were used only rarely. However, such measures should be regarded as the critical first step to control the disease and/or reduce its prevalence. Using univariable analysis, four factors were statistically different between seronegative and seropositive herds: herd size, cows with clinical signs of paratuberculosis, prompt selling of clinically diseased cattle and feeding milk replacer. Using a multivariable logistic regression model, only herd size was a significantly different factor. These results indicate that most of the paratuberculosis preventive management measures were executed on these Dutch dairy farms only to a limited extent.     

Modelling of prevalence development in a paratuberculosis control program in a dairy herd

A modelling approach to calculate the success of a paratuberculosis control programme in dairy herds is presented. The essential parameters of the model are the prevalence at the beginning of the programme, diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the tests used, discipline in culling test-positive animals, turnover in the herd, percentage of replacement with own stock and paratuberculosis prevalence in animals bought into the herd from outside, and a general hygiene-based factor. Diagnostic measures and time schedule used in the modelling approach are given by the paratuberculosis-control-programme of the local board for infectious disease control in food animals in the state of Lower Saxony. It was found by the model-calculations that in case of a high initial prevalence the anticipated six-year duration of the control programme is justified in order to ensure a lasting improvement of herd health. If hygienic measures are strictly obeyed and all test positive animals are culled a clear reduction on paratuberculosis prevalence can be achieved within the first year. According to the model in the second and third year the prevalence will increase again despite ongoing diagnostic measures in order to decrease again continuously with the beginning of the fourth year. Given an initial prevalence of 10%, 20% or 30% the prevalence after six years is calculated to be at 3%, 5% or 8% when all measures are followed as given in the control programme. The presented programme seems to be appropriate to predict prevalence development in paratuberculosis infected dairy herds if the herds are managed according to the guidelines of the "Tierseuchenkasse Niedersachsen", the local board for infectious disease control in food animals in the state of Lower Saxony, Germany. It becomes apparent that within six years a high decrease of the prevalence in the herds, but not a complete eradication of disease can be achieved by consistently complying with the rules given in these guidelines.     

Paratuberculosis in sheep: its possible role in the epidemiology of paratuberculosis in cattle

A total of 50 sheep originating from 15 Dutch farms with a known paratuberculosis infection in their cattle herd, but with no history of paratuberculosis infection in their sheep flock, were examined for infection with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map). The sheep had been grazing on the same pastures as the cattle or on pastures fertilised with manure from these cows. The sheep were screened for paratuberculosis by serum biochemistry, serology and intradermal skin tests. At necropsy they were examined macroscopically, microscopically and bacteriologically for paratuberculosis.From 10 sheep, originating from eight flocks, Map could be isolated from various tissues but not from the intestinal contents, after an incubation period of 2.5-4 months. Six of these culture-positive sheep had no macroscopic signs of paratuberculosis at necropsy. Seven sheep were Map culture negative but showed macroscopic and microscopic lesions consistent with a paratuberculosis infection. Results of serology and skin tests did not correlate with the results of bacteriological culture. Serum concentrations of calcium, albumin and total protein of the infected, suspected and negative sheep were not different. These results indicate that a substantial number of the sheep examined were infected with Map. Even though this bacterium was not isolated from their faeces, the possibility that these sheep could have been shedding Map with their faeces below detection level or at a later stage of the disease cannot be eliminated. Map infected sheep should, therefore, be considered as a possible factor in the epidemiology of with Map infected cattle herds in The Netherlands. At necropsy bacteriological culture of Map should be performed on a routine basis to improve the diagnosis of paratuberculosis in sheep.     

Paratuberculosis in Iceland: epidemiology and control measures, past and present

Paratuberculosis as well as the slow virus infections maedi/visna and jaagsiekte came to Iceland in 1933 when 20 sheep of the Karakul breed were imported from Halle, Germany. At least five of these sheep were subclinical carriers of paratuberculosis. Within 16 years paratuberculosis together with the other Karakul diseases (maedi/visna and jaagsiekte) almost ruined sheep farming, the main agricultural industry in Iceland. The first clinical case of paratuberculosis in sheep was confirmed in 1938, and in cattle in 1944. The first cattle cases of paratuberculosis appeared on farms where the disease had been prevalent in sheep for years. The virulence in cattle appeared to be considerably lower than in sheep. Extensive measures were used to control the spread of paratuberculosis in sheep. Hundreds of kilometres of fences were put up and used together with natural geographic borders to restrict the movement of sheep from infected areas. Serological and other immunological tests were also used to detect and dispose of infected individuals. These measures proved inadequate and the disease could not be eradicated. Culling and restocking of uninfected sheep in endemic areas eradicated maedi/visna and jaagsiekte but not paratuberculosis. Experiments showed that vaccination against paratuberculosis could reduce mortality in sheep by 94%. Vaccination of sheep in endemic areas has been compulsory in Iceland since 1966 and as a result losses have been reduced considerably. Today, serology is used to detect and control infection in cattle herds. Furthermore, serology is used to control vaccination of sheep and screen for infection in non-endemic areas. The complement fixation (CF) test for paratuberculosis has been used until now, but recently we have started comparing the CF test with the CSL absorbed ELISA test.     

Effects of infectious young stock on results of certification, surveillance and control programmes for paratuberculosis in dairy herds

In many epidemiological models for paratuberculosis, it is assumed that infected young stock (<2 years of age) do not shed Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) before adulthood. If this assumption were true, the effective separation of young stock from adult cattle (≥ 2 years) would largely prevent postnatal infections, provided that uninfected adult cattle are highly resistant to infection. However, this assumption is in contrast with observed faecal shedding of MAP in young stock. Consequently, this assumption may have resulted in an underestimation of the effects of MAP transmission in herds participating in certification-, surveillance-, and control programmes for paratuberculosis. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the long-term effects of transmission of MAP amongst young stock on key output parameters of certification-, surveillance-, and control programmes for paratuberculosis in simulated closed dairy herds. Closed Dutch dairy herds participating in a paratuberculosis programme were simulated with a stochastic model, JohneSSim. Various test schemes, preventive management measures, distributions of age at onset of faecal shedding and rates of effective contacts between young stock were simulated. The results indicate that transmission of MAP amongst young stock has no relevant effects on the animal-level prevalence and milk quality of herds that are certified in a paratuberculosis programme. However, transmission of MAP amongst young stock increased the economic losses due to paratuberculosis and costs of participation in a programme. Moreover, it substantially decreased the beneficial effect of the separation of young stock from adult cattle on the probability of being certified. However, even in the presence of transmission of MAP amongst young stock, preventive management measures to separate young stock from adult cattle remain important.     

Risk management of paratuberculosis in dairy herds

Risk management of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in a dairy herd requires an assessment of the likelihood of paratuberculosis occurring in the herd, the economic impact of paratuberculosis on the herd and an evaluation of measures that can be taken to reduce this likelihood and impact.The likelihood of paratuberculosis occurring in the herd is related to the regional herd-level prevalence of paratuberculosis and the herd management (e.g., introducing animals from other herds). The economic impact of paratuberculosis includes production losses due to subclinical and clinical cases, losses due to increased replacement of animals and costs of control measures. Furthermore, a reduction of the price of milk from infected herds might result from consumer concerns about the zoonotic potential of paratuberculosis.Measures that reduce the likelihood of paratuberculosis occurring in a herd and its impact include preventive management measures (e.g., closed herd management and an effective separation of susceptible young stock from adult cattle), test-and-cull schemes for known infected herds and quality assurance schemes for test-negative herds. Quality assurance schemes for test-negative herds, such as schemes for 'low-Map bulk milk' and 'Map-free' herds, aim at safeguarding or increasing the profitability of these herds.Keys to success of risk management of paratuberculosis include realistic expectations of the results of paratuberculosis control, quality assurance and control programmes that are appreciated by farmers and incentives for farmers to participate in such programmes.     

Eradication of paratuberculosis in dairy herds: determination of the initial herd prevalence and modelling of prevalence development

A prerequisite for the success of any eradication programme is the accurate determination of the initial herd prevalence as well as a herd-specific prediction of prevalence development. This prerequisite is not currently given for the eradication of paratuberculosis in infected herds. In the work presented a method to predict the initial paratuberculosis prevalence in infected herds is presented; it is based on the formation of two groups (ELISA-positive and negative) and the determination of generally applicable factors (positive predictive value [ppvn] of the ELISA and sensitivity of fecal culture in the ELISA-negative group [senF]). The ppvn of the ELISA was determined to be 0.6 based on the cultural examination of the ileocaecal lymph node of 64 ELISA-positive animals; the value for senF was set to be 0.64 based on the cultural examination of feces and ileocaecal lymph nodes of 40 ELISA-negative animals. To calculate the initial herd prevalence the number of animals in each of the groups was multiplied with the ppvn of the ELISA or with the reciprocal value of senF (1.5). The values were added and divided by the size of the herd. The practicability of this model was examined on nine herds with a total of 708 animals. The development of herd prevalence was modelled based on the examination scheme given in the paratuberculosis control programme of the "Nieders?chsische Tierseuchenkasse" (local board for infectious disease control in food animals in the state of Lower Saxony, Germany). For the calculation a yearly turnover-rate of 33% with restocking from within the herd and a possibility of paratuberculosis diagnosis only in animals two years and older were assumed. The development of herd prevalence is exemplarily presented for four herds with different initial prevalences.     

Modelling the effect of surveillance programmes on spread of bovine herpesvirus 1 between certified cattle herds

For the eradication of an infectious agent, like bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV-1), surveillance and certification can be used to reduce the transmission between herds. The goal of surveillance is that a certified herd that becomes infected is detected timely so that infection of several other certified herds is prevented. What counts is whether the reproduction ratio R, i.e. the average number of certified herds infected by one infected certified herd can be kept below 1. To support policy makers in making decisions about the minimal demands for a surveillance programme in an eradication campaign of BHV-1 in cattle, two mathematical models were investigated. With these models, the basic reproduction ratio between herds was calculated. The surveillance programmes were characterised with sample size, sampling frequency, test sensitivity, herd size, vaccination status, and contacts between herds. When R between herds is below 1, then the surveillance programme is sufficiently good to prevent spread of infection, provided that R is estimated well. In the model based on bulk milk testing sample size was replaced by a threshold at which bulk milk can be found positive. The R between herds was mainly influenced by the vaccination status, sampling frequency, and contacts between herds. Herd size moderately affected the outcome. Test sensitivity and sample size, however, were of minor importance. If herds of 50 cows became free of BHV-1 without vaccination, then spread of infection between herds might be prevented when animals within herds are sampled once a year (milk or blood samples). This frequency needs to be intensified, being twice a year, for larger herds and/or herds with extensive contacts with other herds. When bulk milk is sampled instead, sampling should be done at least every 5 months and more intensively, being each month, with larger herd sizes and more contacts between herds.     

Evaluation of the gamma interferon test for diagnosis of paratuberculosis in goats

The gamma interferon assay was evaluated for diagnosis of paratuberculosis in goats with special emphasis on false positive reactions. Four categories of herds were tested: (A) herds that had a history of paratuberculosis, had given positive Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis fecal samples and were vaccinated against paratuberculosis; (B) herds that had been vaccinated but had never shown clinical signs of paratuberculosis nor given positive M. a. paratuberculosis fecal samples; and (C) non-vaccinated herds without paratuberculosis. To extend the analysis of samples from young goats free of paratuberculosis, animals less than 18 months of age from non-vaccinated herds without paratuberculosis, category D, were included. Heparinized blood was stimulated with purified protein derivate (PPD) from M. a. paratuberculosis for 24 h and plasma was assayed for the presence of gamma interferon. Results were recorded as the difference between OD values of PPD stimulated and control samples. Vaccinated animals from herds with paratuberculosis, category A, showed significant higher gamma interferon responses than animals from vaccinated herds without paratuberculosis, category B. In both these groups the responses were correlated to age with higher responses in younger animals. Some of the vaccinated animals in herds without paratuberculosis had a gamma interferon response lasting for several years, which demonstrate a long lasting interference with diagnostic testing in vaccinated goats. Only three of the 121 non-vaccinated animals free of paratuberculosis in category C had responses against PPD (corrected OD values at 0.2, 0.24 and 0.5), and none of the 255 young animals in category D had corrected OD values exceeding 0.2. This indicates that false positive reactions do not appear to the same extent in young goats as in young cattle. We conclude that the low responses of non-infected goats could make the gamma interferon assay useful in monitoring the paratuberculosis status of non-vaccinated herds. However, more information about the early gamma interferon responses of naturally infected goats and the presence of false negative samples are needed.     

Dynamics of bovine herpesvirus type 1 infection in Estonian dairy herds with and without a control programme

Bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV-1) is an important bovine pathogen, exacerbating poor health and the productivity of cattle. The aims of this study were to detect the efficacy of vaccination programmes in lowering the seroprevalence of BHV-1 gE within the dairy herd and to follow the dynamics of the infection in non-vaccinated herds with uninfected heifers. A two-year longitudinal study was carried out on seven herds that were vaccinated, and in five herds with uninfected heifers without applying a control programme. After the start of the vaccination programme, calves born remained free from the virus. However, in one herd, 7 per cent (95 per cent CI 2 to 18) of these animals showed antibodies to BHV-1 two years after the first vaccination. A decline in BHV-1 antibody prevalence was found in vaccinating herds. Among the five herds not under the control programme, one experienced active virus spread, although one herd experienced self-clearance of the virus. In the herds with high BHV-1 prevalence, vaccinating all cattle from three months of age twice a year with a commercial inactivated marker vaccine efficiently protected offspring from becoming infected, and lowered the prevalence of BHV-1 within the herd. A small proportion of herds may experience self-clearance of the virus.     

Paratuberculosis recognized as a problem at last: a review

This article attempts to review briefly current opinions on Johne's disease, or paratuberculosis, in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis. Paratuberculosis has been known to be prevalent in domestic livestock, such as cattle, goats, and sheep, for more than a century. Despite this knowledge only minor efforts have been made to control the disease and, with the attention being focussed on the eradication of other diseases, the problem of paratuberculosis has been neglected in most countries in the past decades. However, recent epidemiological surveys performed in Europe showed a high prevalence of paratuberculosis in cattle and sheep, indicating that the situation has become quite alarming. In addition, the possible role of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis in the aetiology of Crohn's disease in humans is still debated, as discussed in this article. Therefore, there is suddenly a renewed interest in paratuberculosis, and the disease is recognized as a significant problem. As a consequence, there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools for large-scale use to allow the introduction of programmes to control and eventually eradicate the disease. The current status and the possibilities for such programmes are discussed.     

Diarrhea and loss of production on Dutch dairy farms caused by the Schmallenberg virus

At the end of August and the first two weeks of September 2011 dozens of veterinary practitioners reported to GD Veekijker (Animal Health Service) several dairy herds with cows with sudden decreased milk production, watery diarrhea and sometimes fever. In the beginning these reports came from the Eastern region of the Netherlands, after that also from the other three regions. The percentages of diseased herds per veterinary practice varied from a few till dozens per cent. Extensive bacteriological, virological and parasitological testing of the feces of sick cows did not reveal an infectious cause of the clinical problems. Recently, 50 stored blood samples of clinically diseased cattle were tested for the Schmallenbergvirus using a PCR, and 36% (18/50) tested positive. A large group of control cows (n=115) was also tested with the PCR and all cattle tested negative. Likely the Schmallenbergvirus was the primary cause of the clinical symptoms in the Dutch dairy herds. Further research will be done to confirm this.     

A modeling study on the sustainability of a certification-and-monitoring program for paratuberculosis in cattle

Certification-and-monitoring programs for paratuberculosis are based on repetitive herd testing to establish a herd's health status. The available tests have poor sensitivity. Infected but undetected herds may remain among certified "paratuberculosis-free" herds. The objective was to determine if truly free herds acquire a certified status and keep it over time when infected but undetected herds remain. The Dutch program was used as a basis to construct a mechanistic deterministic model of the evolution over 25 years of the number of herds per health status. Three health states for herds were defined: not detected as infected in the certification process to obtain a free status; not detected as infected by any of the repetitive tests for monitoring the certified free status; detected as infected. Among undetected herds, two types were defined: truly free versus undetected but infected. Transitions between states were due to the purchase of an infected animal, infection via the environment, clearance via culling or sales, detection of an infected animal, and certification. A sensitivity analysis was carried out. We showed that--for a 100% specific test only--most of the truly free herds at the beginning of the program got a certified free status and kept it over time. Most infected herds were either detected as infected or cleared. The number of certified truly free herds increased with a decrease in the animal-level prevalence or in the risk of purchasing an infected cattle, for example by restricting purchases to cattle from herds at the highest level of certification.     

Spatial differences in occurrence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds and in control programme participation

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection of economic importance to the cattle industry and a voluntary control programme is offered to Danish dairy farmers. Our objective was to evaluate spatial differences in both control programme participation and paratuberculosis prevalence in Denmark. The study included 4414 dairy herds: 1249 were participating in the control programme, and 1503 were tested for antibodies to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Spatial differences were evaluated by kernel smoothing, kriging, and cluster analysis. Participation was lowest among herds on the island Zealand (≤23%). The risk of a herd being infected with MAP was found to be high on most of Zealand, but the uncertainty of this result was large due to a limited number of tested herds. In the rest of the country, the south western part of the peninsula Jutland had the highest risk of MAP (≥91%). The risk of MAP was also high (86-91%) in the northern part of both Jutland and Funen. The predicted apparent within-herd prevalence was highest (5-8.5%) in some local areas across Jutland, in the north western part of the island Funen, and in the south and western part of Zealand. Scan statistics located the primary cluster of herds with high apparent within-herd prevalence in the western part of Funen. Furthermore, a number of significant clusters were found in Jutland and a single significant cluster in Zealand. Consistency was found between kriging and scan statistics results with respect to location of areas with high apparent within-herd prevalence of MAP. Potential explanations for differences in participation include herd size and local herd health advisers, whereas for example soil characteristics might influence prevalence. Further studies are needed to evaluate these and other risk factors.