Abandonment of traditional terraced landscape: A change detection approach (a case study in Costa Viola,Calabria, Italy)

This paper presents the results of a change‐detection study of the historical agricultural terraced landscape in “Costa Viola” (Calabria, South Italy). During the last century, because of the loss of economic competitiveness, it has undergone progressive abandonment, followed by landscape degradation. Taking into consideration the very steep slopes of Costa Viola and the need to analyse with high precision the historical evolution of the terraced landscape, research methods were implemented coupling advanced geomatic techniques with in situ detailed surveys. Based on historical aerial photographs, orthophotos, and numeric cartography, we analysed the land use/land cover change in the period 1955–2014 using photogrammetric and geoprocessing techniques, focusing particularly on trajectories in agricultural terraces. Area covered by active terraces decreased dramatically between 1955 and 2014, from 813.25 to 118.79 ha (−85.4%). The implemented spatial database was built in a free open‐source software taking into consideration spatial accuracies and completeness. Spatial comparison among land use/land cover maps was carried out using a postclassification comparison technique that can provide complete cross‐tabulation matrices. These data were compared with socio‐economic statistics concerning demography and trends of farms with vineyards. The evolutionary dynamics of the active agricultural terraces were also analysed trough the definition of 6 types of spatio‐temporal patterns recognised in the analysed period. These methods allowed to highlight the ongoing dynamics of abandonment of agricultural terraces in relation to their main causes and effects. Although tailored for the specific case study, they can be applied to many other terraced agricultural landscapes presenting similar characteristics and problems.     

Using Landsat Images and Spectral Mixture Analysis to Assess Drivers of 21‐Year LULC Changes in Sudan

Landsat images acquired in 1987, 1999 and 2008 were selected to evaluate land use and land cover changes in three different ecological zones in the Republic of the Sudan: savannah (North Kordofan), semi‐desert (River Nile) and desert (Northern State). Maps of soil, vegetation and non‐photosynthetic material were built by spectral mixture analysis using endmembers spectra derived from images. Multitemporal comparison techniques were then applied to vegetation and soil maps to estimate the long‐term land degradation/re‐growth dynamics and to emphasize land cover variation over time and in space. Multitemporal comparisons have shown that site‐specific interactions between natural processes, climate variation and human activity played a pivotal role in land use and land cover change. In savannah, human activities strongly affected degradation phenomena. Expansion of villages triggered a change in land use and mismanagement of the natural resources, mainly caused by deforestation to supply wood for domestic uses. The degradation then promoted sand encroachment and dune migration. On average, 48% of the total area was subjected to medium (25–50%) and high (50–75%) land degradation. Differently, climatic constraints drove increasing degradation processes in semi‐desert and desert zones. The phenomenon was particularly severe in the desert zone. In each site, an inversion of the general trend was due to a land use change where forestry or agricultural projects were established, partly sustained in savannah by the positive rainfall trend of the last two decades. Site‐specific strategies that take into account the interactions of the driving factors at local scale are thus necessary to combat land degradation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consequences of feasible future agricultural land‐use change on soil organic carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in Great Britain

The aim of this study was to assess the consequences of feasible land‐use change in Great Britain on GHG emissions mainly through the gain or loss of soil organic carbon. We use estimates of per‐area changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with Great Britain (GB) county‐level scenarios of land‐use change based on historical land‐use patterns or feasible futures to estimate the impact of potential land‐use change between agricultural land‐uses. We consider transitions between cropland, temporary grassland (<5 yr under grass), permanent grass (>5 yr under grass) and forest. We show that reversion to historical land‐use patterns as present in 1930 could result in GHG emission reductions of up to ca. 11 Mt CO₂‐eq./yr (relative to a 2004 baseline), because of an increased permanent grassland area. By contrast, cultivation of 20% of the current (2004) permanent grassland area for crop production could result in GHG emission increases of up to ca. 14 Mt CO₂‐eq./yr. We conclude that whilst change between agricultural land‐uses (transitions between permanent and temporary grassland and cropland) in GB is likely to be a limited option for GHG mitigation, external factors such as agricultural product commodity markets could influence future land‐use. Such agricultural land‐use change in GB could have significant impacts on Land‐use, Land‐Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) emissions, with relatively small changes in land‐use (e.g. 5% plough out of grassland to cropland, or reversion of cropland to the grassland cover in Nitrate Vulnerable Zones of 1998) having an impact on GHG emissions of a similar order of magnitude as the current United Kingdom LULUCF sink. In terms of total UK GHG emissions, however, even the most extreme feasible land‐use change scenarios account for ca. 2% of current national GHG emissions.     

Monitoring land use change in the Çeşme coastal zone,Turkey using aerial photographs and satellite imaging

Humans change the landscapes and especially the coastal zones for their requirements. The aim of the study was to analyse land use changes in the Çeşme coastal zone, Turkey, during a 48‐year period (1957–2005) using remote sensing and GIS. In this study, land use changes in the Çeşme coastal zone were analysed using the four sets of land use maps derived from aerial photographs and classified satellite image taken in the years 1957, 1976, 1995 and 2005. Post‐classification algorithm change detection was applied to observe land use changes during three time periods: Period 1 (1957–1976), Period 2 (1976–1995) and Period 3 (1995–2005). The results showed that natural land cover and agricultural lands decreased and built‐up area increased throughout the study area during the 48‐year period between 1957 and 2005. Furthermore, land use change was successively increased in Period 1, Period 3 and Period 2. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land‐use change and urbanization of Adana,Turkey

This study analyses land‐use/land‐cover (LULC) changes in Adana city, Turkey, using satellite data of 1984 and 2000. Study of the expansion of the city over adjacent agricultural fields and semi‐natural areas was the major focus. The satellite images were classified using supervised classification prior to comparison of LULC on two different dates. The change map was produced by pixel‐to‐pixel comparison of the classified images. Urban and built‐up area increased by a factor of 2ċ07 during the 16 years; about 30 per cent on agricultural land and 70 per cent on previously semi‐natural land. Permanent immigration and urban development strategies were the main driving forces. Some policy perspectives are also given. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land use change and land degradation in China from 1991 to 2001

China has long been experiencing intense land use/cover changes (LUCC). Undesirable land use/cover changes have resulted in widespread land degradation. This study examines the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use change and land degradation as evident from land use survey datasets (1991–2001). Six prominent land degradation processes were identified, namely: desertification, secondary salinisation, loss of agricultural use, deforestation, grassland degradation and loss of wetland. Rates of conversion were calculated and distribution patterns were mapped with the aid of GIS. The results showed that these land use changes have affected the wider environment and accelerated land degradation. It provided a more complete and up‐to‐date picture of China's land degradation which helps to develop improved conservation policies that combat land degradation and promote sustainable land management. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land‐use change in two Nepalese watersheds: GIS and geomorphometric analysis

Accurate measurement of land‐use/land‐cover and geomorphometric parameters is important for evaluating watershed conditions, yet these are surprisingly difficult quantities to measure accurately over large areas. Watershed analysis based on the geographic information system (GIS) was carried out in two watersheds in the western development region of Nepal. Land‐use maps were prepared after interpretation of 1978 and 1996 aerial photographs. Digital data for deriving geomorphometric parameters were prepared from topographical maps of scale 1: 25 000. The dynamics of land‐use and land‐cover change within the Mardi and Fewa watersheds were investigated by performing spatial analysis of digital land‐use maps in ArcView 3.1 desktop environment. There was a net increase in forest cover of 2ċ4 per cent and 1ċ1 per cent in the Mardi and Fewa watersheds respectively, with a corresponding decrease in shrub and rainfed agriculture. Land use was found to be highly dynamic with significant internal trading among the land‐use classes. A significant area under agriculture in 1978 was found abandoned in 1996 in both watersheds most likely due to increased out migration of the labour force. Geomorphometric parameters such as hypsometric curves, hypsometric integrals (HI), drainage density and length of overland flow were analysed to explain the watershed conditions. The results of geomorphometric analysis revealed that the watersheds have been subjected in the past to high erosion and are still susceptible to lateral surface erosion hence soil degradation. Some suggestion for management can be derived from this study. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land‐use effects on the distribution of soil organic carbon within particle‐size fractions of volcanic soils in the Transmexican Volcanic Belt (Mexico)

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of land‐use and forest cover depletion on the distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) within particle‐size fractions in a volcanic soil. Emphasis was given to the thermal properties of soils. Six representative sites in Mexico were selected in an area dominated by Andosols: a grassland site, four forested sites with different levels of degradation and an agricultural site. Soils were fractionated using ultrasonic energy until complete dispersion was achieved. The particle‐size fractions were coarse sand, fine sand, silt, clay and particulate organic matter from the coarse sand sized fraction (POM‐CS) and fine sand (POM‐FS). Soil organic carbon decreased by 70% after forest conversion to cropland and long‐term cultivation; forest cover loss resulted in a decrease in SOC of up to 60%. The grassland soil contained 45% more SOC than the cropland one. Soil organic carbon was mainly associated with the silt‐size fraction; the most sensitive fractions to land‐use change and forest cover depletion were POM followed by SOC associated with the silt and clay‐sized fractions. Particulate organic matter can be used as an early indicator of SOC loss. The C lost from the clay and silt‐sized fractions was thermally labile; therefore, the SOC stored in the more degraded forest soils was more recalcitrant (thermally resistant). Only the transformation of forest to agricultural land produced a similar loss of thermally stable C associated with the silt‐sized fraction.     

Classifying land cover conversions in coastal wetlands in the Mediterranean: Pairwise comparisons of landsat images

This study classified land cover conversions by using quantitative change detection methods in the eastern Mediterranean coastal wetlands of Turkey. Three Landsat TM scenes acquired in 1984, 1998 and 2007 were analysed using image pairs of consecutive dates. The amounts of change were calculated for the periods from 1984 to 1998 and from 1998 to 2007, using binary change masks and supervised image classifications, in which eleven a priori defined land cover classes were used. Change areas accounted for 14.81 and 15.64 per cent of the total area, in the first and second periods, respectively. Conversions from/to sand dunes, mud flats and afforestation were by far the most extensive changes. Sand dunes and mud flats decreased, while afforestation and agriculture areas increased in the 23‐year period between 1984 and 2007. Five types of qualitative change were identified on the basis of land cover transformations within and between natural and anthropogenic systems. Type I changes, which indicated conversions from (semi)natural to anthropogenic systems, took place as agricultural expansion over coastal sand dunes, while Type II changes mostly occurred within agricultural systems. Type III changes included changes in human uses, leading to conversions from one anthropogenic system to another. Conversions between semi(natural) systems such as salt marshes and mud‐flats were typical Type IV changes. Type V changes were mainly due to conversions from agriculture to wetland categories or other semi(natural) cover types. Implications of these changes were discussed for management of coastal environmental resources. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land Cover Transition in Northern Tanzania

Land conversion in sub‐Saharan Africa has profound biophysical, ecological, political and social consequences for human well‐being and ecosystem services. Understanding the process of land cover changes and transitions is essential for good ecosystem management policy that would lead to improved agricultural production, human well‐being and ecosystems health. This study aimed to assess land cover transitions in a typical semi‐arid degraded agro‐ecosystems environment within the Pangani river basin in northern Tanzania. Three Landsat images spanning over 30 years were used to detect random and systematic patterns of land cover transition in a landscape dominated by crop and livestock farming. Results revealed that current land cover transition is driven by a systematic process of change dominated by the following: (i) transition from degraded land to sparse bushland (10·8%); (ii) conversion from sparse bushland to dense bushland in lowland areas (6·0%); (iii) conversion from bushland to forest (4·8%); and (iv) conversion from dense bushland to cropland in the highlands (4·5%). Agricultural lands under water harvesting technology adoption show a high degree of persistence (60–80%) between time slices. This suggests that there is a trend in land‐use change towards vegetation improvement in the catchment with a continuous increase in the adoption of water harvesting technologies for crop and livestock farming. This can be interpreted as a sign of agricultural intensification and vegetation regrowth in the catchment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New frontiers of land and water commodification: socio‐environmental controversies of large‐scale land acquisitions

A growing number of regions in the developing world are targeted by transnational investors who are acquiring large amounts of land and natural resources. Driven by the increasing global demand for agricultural products, such investments are often considered an opportunity for economic development in the target country. However, there are concerns about the social and environmental impacts on local communities. In this brief review, we discuss some key socio‐environmental controversies surrounding large‐scale land acquisitions (LSLAs). LSLAs often target common property systems and lead to privatization and commodification of land through long‐term land concessions. There is a debate between supporters of foreign land investments as a means to attract modern agricultural technology that would decrease the yield gap in underperforming agricultural land and those who question such a development model because it is seldom coupled with policy instruments that would ensure that the benefits improve food security in local populations. Large‐scale land investments displace a variety of systems of production ranging from small‐scale farming to (arguably) “unused” land such as forests and savannas on which local communities often depend. Moreover, LSLAs entail an appropriation of water resources that may negatively impact local farmers or downstream human and natural systems. In most cases, investors keep the land fallow but, when they put it under productive use, they typically change land cover and land use to start intensified commercial farming, often for nonfood crops. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil structural stability and erosion rates influenced by agricultural management practices in a semi‐arid Mediterranean agro‐ecosystem

Unsuitable agricultural practices can cause loss in soil quality and erodibility to thus increase or trigger desertification under Mediterranean conditions. A field experiment was performed at the El Teularet‐Sierra de Enguera Experimental Station (eastern Spain) to assess the influence during a 5‐yr period of different agricultural practices on physical and chemical indicators of soil quality (total and water‐soluble carbohydrates, glomalin‐related soil proteins (GRSP), total organic carbon, aggregate stability (AS), vegetation cover and soil erosion). The management practices included residual herbicide use, ploughing, ploughing + oats, addition of oat straw mulch and a control (land abandonment). Adjacent soil under natural vegetation was used as a reference for local, high‐quality soil and as a control for comparison with the agricultural soils under different management practices. Oat straw mulching led to higher levels of water‐soluble carbohydrates, GRSP and AS and lower soil erosion rates, resulting in values similar to those in the soil under native vegetation. The lowest levels of carbohydrates and GRSP were for the plots that were treated with herbicide or were ploughed. The maintenance of and increases in stable aggregates promoted by the different agricultural management practices over the years were attributed to increases in labile organic fractions such as carbohydrates and to the GRSP content. The results demonstrate that land abandonment (control plot) or the use of a cover (plants or straw) contributes to increases in soil quality and reduces the risk of erosion. The research also shows that sustainable agricultural management allows soil to recover and that the use of straw mulching is the most effective management strategy.     

Soil chemical and biological characteristics influence mineralization processes in different stands of a tropical wetland

In the Caribbean, Pterocarpus officinalis swamp forest, a coastal freshwater wetland, has been locally transformed by human activities into Colocasia esculenta monoculture (under the swamp forest) or pasture (where deforestation has occurred). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of three land uses of this tropical wetland (swamp forest, C. esculenta monoculture and pasture) on soil abiotic and biological features. We hypothesized that increasing the level of ecosystem alteration by agricultural intensification would negatively impact soil chemical characteristics, soil fauna diversity and carbon mineralization. As expected, land use significantly affected soil characteristics and changes followed the increasing intensity of land use. The ‘undisturbed system’, that is swamp forest, was characterized by a large soil organic matter content, a high level of soil moisture, a small phosphorus content and a slightly lower pH. These characteristics were correlated with a small faunal abundance and diversity and slow carbon (C) mineralization. The ‘low disturbance system’, that is C. esculenta monoculture, was the closest to swamp forest characteristics and changes between the both systems principally concerned a very slight decrease in organic matter content and very small increase in C mineralization and Coleoptera diversity. By contrast, all parameters (soil chemical characteristics, C mineralization and faunal abundance and diversity) were impacted in the most intensive land‐use, pasture. Our study confirmed that agricultural practices have an influence on soil fauna and C mineralization processes in wetlands. Moreover, our study suggested that a C. esculenta traditional agroecosystem under swamp forest cover could be considered as an ‘eco‐friendly’ agricultural practice.     

黄土区大型露天矿农业用地格局演变的分析

在矿区废弃地的恢复中，格局变化的研究将对矿区生态系统的变化起着至关重要的作用。其中，农业用地格局演变的过程及覆被类型的变化，对矿区的生态安全、耕地保护及土地资源可持续利用具有重要的现实意义。该文以山西平朔矿区为例，基于GIS平台，在分析矿区土地动态变化的基础上，运用景观生态学理论与方法，对平朔矿区景观动态变化过程、特征及覆被类型的变化进行了研究，特别对矿区农用地的变化做了重要分析，结果表明：大型露天矿区生态系统景观动态变化过程包括生态破坏过程的景观变化(土地挖损、土地压占、土地占用)和生态重建过程的景观变化(地貌重塑、土壤重构、植被重建)；经过20年的人工控制的生态重建后，矿区土地利用空间格局由以旱地—疏林地格局演变为以林地—建设用地为主的重建生态格局；矿区生态重建已经改变了原脆弱生态系统的生态环境，其中农业用地增加了50%，但由于管理制度等原因，复垦的农用地目前大部分尚不能转换为耕地使用。     

Land‐use and cover changes (1988–2002) around budongo forest reserve,NW Uganda: implications for forest and woodland sustainability

Land‐use and cover changes around Budongo Forest Reserve (BFR) were analysed from multi‐temporal LandSat images (1988 and 2002) and associated field‐based studies in 2003–2004. Three major land‐use and cover classes: forest/woodland, sugarcane plantations and grassland/shifting‐cultivation/settlements were clearly discriminated. The area under sugarcane cultivation increased over 17‐fold, from 690 ha in 1988 to 12729 ha in 2002, with a concomitant loss of about 4680 ha (8·2 per cent) of forest/woodland, mainly on the southern boundary of BFR. Land‐use and cover changes were a result of (a) agricultural expansion, (b) increasing human population, exacerbated by large influxes of refugees, (c) conflicts of interest and political interference in the management of BFR and (d) unclear land tenure. Agriculture is the main land‐use practice and source of income to local people, with commercial sugarcane and tobacco as the primary cash crops. Individual smallholder sugarcane plantations covered distances ranging from 30 to 1440 m along the BFR edge, with no buffer zone, resulting in direct conflicts between farmers and forest wild animals. There is an ever‐increasing need for more land for agricultural expansion, resulting in continued loss of forest/woodland on private/communal lands and encroachment into BFR. This unsustainable agricultural expansion and the local people's perception of BFR as an obstacle to agriculture, threatens the conservation of its threatened wild plants (e.g. Raphia farinifera) and the endangered chimpanzees. Therefore, their sustainable management for both development and conservation will require strong and incorruptible institutions that will seek a balance between resource exploitation and conservation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

快速城市化地区土地利用变化研究——以广东省东莞市为例

以东莞市为研究区域,利用1988年、1995年、1998年、2002年和2005年5期不同时相的Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像,从土地利用变化幅度、土地利用变化速率、土地利用重心转移和土地利用变化空间分异特征四方面探讨了研究区的土地利用变化。结果表明:(1)1988—2005年,东莞市土地利用变化总的态势是耕地大幅减少、城镇用地迅速扩张,大量的农业用地转化为城镇用地,城镇用地快速扩张和耕地大量流失是研究区土地利用变化的主要特征。(2)从土地利用变化的空间特征来看,各土地利用类型重心的转移距离都较大,且农业用地的重心转移方向和城镇用地重心转移方向大致相反;耕地分布的空间正相关性明显减弱,城镇用地分布的空间正相关性明显增强。     

IMPACTS OF LAND COVER CHANGE SCENARIOS ON STORM RUNOFF GENERATION: A BASIS FOR MANAGEMENT OF THE NYANDO BASIN,KENYA

The effects of conceptual land cover change scenarios on the generation of storm runoffs were evaluated in the Nyando Basin. The spatial scenarios represented alternatives that vary between full deforestation and reforestation. Synthetic storm events of depths 40, 60 and 80 mm were formulated according to the rainfall patterns and assumed to have durations corresponding to the runoff times of concentration. The Natural Resource Conservation Service–Curve Number model was used to generate runoff volumes within the sub‐catchments, which were subsequently routed downstream to obtain effects in the whole basin. The simulated land cover change impacts were evaluated relative to values obtained from the actual land cover state of the basin in the year 2000. From the results, an agricultural land cover scenario constituting of about 86 per cent of agriculture indicated increased runoff volumes in the entire basin by about 12 per cent. An agricultural‐forested land cover scenario with 40 and 51 per cent of forest and agriculture respectively revealed reduced runoff volumes by about 12 per cent. Alternatively, a scenario depicting a largely forested land cover state with about 78 per cent of forests reduced the runoff volumes by about 25 per cent according to the model estimates. Runoff volumes in the basin were also likely to reduce by about 15 per cent if the appropriate land cover scenario for the respective sub‐catchments were to be assumed for runoff management purposes. Considering the prevalent data uncertainty, the study effectively highlights the potential hydrological vulnerability of the basin. The results obtained can form a basis for appropriate catchment management of the area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Major declines in the abundance of vultures and other scavenging raptors in and around the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya

Vulture population declines have been noted in West and Southern Africa, but have not been assessed in East Africa. Roadside transects conducted in 1976 and 1988 were compared with surveys done from 2003–2005 in and around Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Staggering declines in abundance were found for seven of eight scavenging raptors surveyed. No Egyptian vultures were seen during recent transects. We compared trends between the ungulate migration and non-migration season among three land use types (reserve, buffer, and grazed) and among the species surveyed to establish the causes of declines in scavenging raptors. Large declines during the ungulate migratory period suggest that most scavenging raptor species are declining well beyond the area of study. For all species, except Hooded vultures, substantial declines outside of the reserve indicate an important role of land use change in causing observed declines. In addition, significant declines of populations of Gyps species in the reserve itself, especially during the migration season, provide evidence that human activities occurring in other parts of the species’ range such as poisoning of carcasses may be causing their decline. Declines found in this study suggest that at a minimum African white-backed, Rüppell’s, and Hooded vultures should be relisted as Vulnerable. Management actions that limit land use change around the reserve combined with a countrywide ban on carbamate pesticides will be important for conserving keystone members of the scavenging guild. Future research should further examine possible causes of these declines and quantify the effect of reduced scavenging raptor abundance on scavenging efficiency.     

基于马尔科夫模型的武功县土地利用/覆被动态变化研究

基于对武功县2006年、2009年两期Lansat 5-TM遥感影像解译获得的土地利用/覆被图,求得该区土地利用类型面积转移概率矩阵。应用马尔科夫模型对武功县未来12 a土地利用动态变化趋势进行模拟分析和预测。结果表明:引入模型效应系数检验该模型,模型效应系数值为99.99%,用该模型预测土地利用动态变化是可靠的;人类活动是武功县土地利用/覆被变化的主要驱动力;武功县未来土地利用的变化趋势是农业用地逐年减少,其中耕地面积和菜地面积分别减少5.74%,0.74%;而建设用地和交通用地则逐年增加,分别增加6.29%,0.57%;水域和特殊用地面积变化不大。研究结果明晰了农用地和建设用地之间的矛盾及其发展趋势,可为区域土地利用规划管理提供相关科学依据。     

Spatial Estimation of Soil Erosion Risk by Land‐cover Change in the Andes OF Southern Ecuador

Ecuador has the highest deforestation rate in South America, causing large‐scale soil erosion. Inter‐Andean watersheds are especially affected by a rapid increase of the population leading to the conversion of large areas of montane forest into pasture and cropland. In this study, we estimate soil erosion risk in a small mixed land‐use watershed in the southern Andes of Ecuador. Soil loss was estimated at a spatial resolution of 30 m, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) where the RUSLE factors were estimated on the basis of limited public available data. Land‐cover maps for 1976, 2008 and 2040 were created assuming increasing deforestation rates over the ensuing decades. Greater erosion rates are estimated for succession areas with agricultural cropland and pasture with maximum values of 936 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹, where slopes and precipitation amounts are the greatest. Under natural forest vegetation, the estimated soil erosion rates are negligible (1·5 to 40 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹) even at steep slopes and higher elevations where rainfall amounts and intensities are generally higher. When the entire watershed has undergone substantial deforestation in 2040, erosion values may reach 2,021 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹. Vegetation cover is the most important factor for potential soil erosion. Secondary factors are related to rainfall (R‐factor) and topography (LS factors). Although the spatial predictions of potential soil erosion have only limited meaning for erosion risk, this method provides an important screening tool for land management and assessment of land‐cover change. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.