2000年全国农作物重大病虫发生趋势预报

根据“2 0 0 0年全国农作物重大病虫发生趋势会商会”讨论结果和目前情况分析 ,预计 2 0 0 0年全国主要农作物病虫仍呈偏重发生态势。其中小麦和水稻主要病虫将中等或中等偏重发生 ;蝗虫、草地螟、玉米螟等害虫偏重至大发生 ;棉铃虫等棉花害虫发生面积下降 ,三、四代发生较重 ;一些次要病虫将继续上升为害。1　重大病虫发生趋势1 .1　小麦病虫中等发生　白粉病在西南、长江流域及黄淮、西北麦区的部分阴湿地区 ,纹枯病在黄淮及江淮麦区将偏重流行 ;条锈病总体上将偏轻流行 ,但四川大部将偏重流行 ,甘肃陇南和天水、陕南、鄂西等地为中等流行…     

今年全国早中稻主要病虫偏重发生

今年全国早中稻主要病虫偏重发生雷国明（修水量植保站）５月１８日全国农业技术推广服务中心病虫测报站发出１９９８年早中主要病虫发生趋势预报。今年全国早、中稻主要病虫将偏重发生,发生程度接近１９９７年。趋势预报根据主要病虫冬后基数,作物环境,气候条件及５月...     

广西1999年水稻主要病虫发生趋势展望

我站研制的超长期预测模型显示：１９９９年我区水稻病虫的发生在１９９８年偏重发生的基础上将有所加重,各种重大病虫的发生仍将居高不下。发生程度达中等偏重局部大发生,预计发生面积为５９０万ｈｍ２,估测全区自然为害损失在２００万ｔ以上。本篇供各地参考,并及早...     

湖北省1998年主要农作物主要病虫发生趋势预报

湖北省１９９８年主要农作物主要病虫发生趋势预报１夏粮、夏油作物主要病虫（１）油菜菌核病预计鄂东、江汉平原、鄂西南为大发生，鄂北中等发生。（２）小麦条锈病预计鄂北中等偏重发生，高感品种上大发生，其它麦区为中等发生。（３）小麦白粉病预计鄂北中等偏重发生，...     

1998年江西稻棉病虫害发生特点及原因分析

1998年江西气候异常,水稻、棉花病虫的发生为害出现了一些新特点,现分析报告如下：11998年江西稻棉病虫害发生概况1．l水稻病虫害属偏重发生年份,轻于1997年,发生面积5953113．4lunZ。其中早稻病虫重发生,略重于1997年,发生面积3095726．7hlnZ;晚稻病虫中等发生,明显轻于1997年,发生面积2857386．7hm'。重发生的病虫有早稻稻瘟病、纹枯病和晚稻稻自蚊,偏重发生的病虫有早稻和一季晚稻稻飞虱、早稻稻纵卷叶螟、晚稻细菌性条斑病和北部三化螟。l。2棉花病虫害总体发生水平为中等偏重,发生面积504266．67hm',其中棉铃虫重发生,尤…     

1995年农作物主要病虫发生趋势分析

１９９５年农作物主要病虫发生趋势分析全国植保总站病虫测报站根据各地病虫越冬基数调查、秋冬种作物情况和品种布局状况，经过多数省植保站病虫测报专家会商，结合长期天气预报分析，并参考多种数学预测方法的研究结果，预计１９９５年主要农作物病虫为中等偏重发生年。...     

2016年广西农作物病虫害发生实况

2016年广西主要农作物病虫害总体发生程度为中等偏重,轻于上年,其中水稻病虫害轻于上年,果树偏重,其他基本持平.水稻病虫害发生面积占农作物病虫草鼠害发生面积的近三成,以“两迁”害虫及稻瘟病、稻纹枯病为主.     

广西1994年农作物主要病虫发生概况

广西１９９４年农作物主要病虫发生概况（广西农作物病虫测报站南宁５３００２２）１９９４年全区农作物病虫的发生为害属中等偏重发生年份。主要病虫草鼠的发生面积达１３５８４万亩次，其中：病害３６１０万亩次，属中等程度；虫害７３１２万亩次，属中等偏重程度；农田...     

四川省今年农作物病虫害预计总体偏重发生

根据农作物病虫基数、品种布局以及气侯趋势,结合病虫历年发生情况等因素综合分析,四川省植保站近期预计2012年全省农作物病虫害总体偏重发生（4级）,发生面积1．8亿亩次。其中,小麦病虫中等发生（3级）,发生面积2000万亩次;油菜病虫害偏重发生（4级）,发生面积1200万亩次;水稻病虫偏重发生（4级）,发生面积6500万亩次;玉米病虫中等发生（3级）,发生面积1900万亩次。以条锈病、赤霉病、麦蚜、油菜菌核病、稻瘟病、稻曲病、水稻螟虫、稻飞虱、玉米螟和西藏飞蝗等为主。     

广西2003年农作物主要病虫发生趋势分析

20 0 3年广西农作物计划种植面积中 ,粮食作物播种面积有所减少 ,经济作物播种面积比 2 0 0 2年增加约 5 .5 % ,果树新增种植 3 .3 3万 hm2 次。根据2 0 0 2年农作物病虫发生实况、2 0 0 3年种植结构以及历史资料综合分析 ,预计 2 0 0 3年广西农作物主要病虫总体发生将轻于 2 0 0 2年 ,属常发年份 ,发生程度将达中等偏重 ,发生面积约 1 3 3 5万 hm2 。稻飞虱、玉米铁甲虫、稻纹枯病等病虫在局部地区将达大发生。1　主要病虫害发生趋势预测1 .1　水稻病虫发生比 2 0 0 2年稍轻 ,发生程度 4(5 )级 ,发生面积 5 3 0万 hm2 次。其中 :　　稻飞虱…     

Negative Disease Forecasting Prediction of the Disease-free Period of Irrigated Potatoes1

Although correlations can be established between the microclimate of an irrigated field and the macroclimate, their use is limited because the timing and duration of irrigation is not known beforehand, and it is practically impossible in consequence to predict crop microclimate in an irrigated crop. Nevertheless, a strong link can be found between some elements of the macroclimate and the disease-free period, for example for Phytophthora Infestons on irrigated potatoes. Temperatures of 10–12°C, or 18–20°C, early in the season are associated with long disease-free periods of 60–70 days. At intermediate temperatures, the disease-free period is shorter but cannot be predicted exactly. Such empirical relations can be used to provide « negative » forecasts, i.e. the expected duration of the disease-free period, and so avoiding unnecessary spraying.     

农作物病虫预测预报工作的思考

我国是生物灾害严重的国家，农业病虫是重要的生物灾害，对其监测和预警，就像监测气象、洪水、地震灾害一样，要求很高的专业技术和技能。准确监测和预报重大病虫害发生动态，及时指导病虫防治工作，是保障农业优质、高产、高效、低成本、无公害的重要环节，责任十分重大。２０世纪７０年代以来，全国各级病虫测报站系统监测重大病虫动态，预测预报发生趋势，发布重大病虫信息，指导病虫防治，为确保农业生产安全发挥了重要作用。在新的世纪，病虫测报工作面临许多新情况和新问题，测报技术人员只有更新观念，提高认识，才能应对市场经济条…     

Meteorology and Desert Locust Forecasting1

The now very considerable understanding of weather effects on breeding and movement by the desert locust has been used to prepare a forecasting manual. It is a two-volume, 400-page publication that describes, explains and illustrates the principles of modern forecasting, and includes not only much material on the biology and ecology of this species but also many new biogeographical studies of past locust developments that involved a variety of synoptic systems in some 60 countries of northern and eastern Africa and south-western Asia. It can be useful to all who are concerned with the effects of weather on insect movement.     

Forecasting and warning system in Lithuania*

The State Plant Protection Service is responsible for the forecasting and warning system in Lithuania. The service collaborates with scientists from the Lithuanian Institute of Agriculture and Institute of Horticulture with respect to the methodology for forecasting and warning systems.     

Forecasting and Warning in Danish Agriculture1

In Denmark, the principle is maintained of forecasting and warning against pests and diseases which are not easily recognized by the farmer himself. The forecasting and warning system is based upon close cooperation between the farmers' unions, a well-organized network of plant husbandry advisers and the State Plant Pathology Institute in Lyngby. Most field data are collected by the advisers and forwarded to Lyngby from where announcements on current attacks are distributed as appropriate. Realizing the considerable local variations in the occurrence and course of the attacks, plant pathologists mainly notify the advisers, who can then intervene, if necessary, with a local warning for their own districts. Potato blight, however, is an exception, country-wide forecasting being broadcast every year. This may also be the case with warnings againts aphids. Potato blight forecasting has been in operation since 1935 and warnings against aphids in beets (causing virus yellows) since 1957. Each year about 10 different pests and diseases are warned against. Au Danemark, le principe prévaut d'assurer les prévisions et les avertissements pour les déprédateurs qui ne sont pas facilement dépistés par I'exploitant. Le système se base sur une coopération étroite entre les syndicats dexploitants, un réseau bien organisé de conseillers agricoles, et 1'Institut national de phytopathologie à Lyngby. Les observations de plein champ sont realisees par les conseillers qui transmettent les resultats a Lyngby. L'Institut assure alors la dissemination des informations sur les attaques en cours. Compte tenu de la forte variation regionale de L'incidence et de I'evolution des attaques, les phytopathologues avertissent les conseillers qui decident s'il y a lieu d'emettre des avertissements dans leur district. Le mildiou de la pomme de terre, cependant, est considere au niveau national et, suivant les cas, egalement les pucerons. Les previsions contre le mildiou sont en place depuis 1935, et contre les pucerons de la betterave (vecteur du yellows virus) depuis 1957. Chaque années, une dizaine de ravageurs et maladies font L'objet d'avertissements.     

韩国水稻病虫预测预报与防治

中韩水稻迁飞性害虫合作项目顺利进行了三年，为了进一步提高各合作测报点的业务水平，韩国农村振兴厅每年邀请数名技术人员到韩国进行技能培训。2003年，应韩国农村振兴厅的邀请，本人与全国农业技术推广服务中心病虫测报处夏冰、湖南省长沙县植保站肖永生、广西藏族自治区灵川县     

Disease Intelligence and its Role In Disease Forecasting1

Disease intelligence information is received at Bristol by telex from plant pathologists in all regions of England and Wales. Weather information recorded at synoptic stations throughout the country is fed into the Meteorological Office computer at Bracknell, and from given parameters daily forecasts are issued for a number of diseases including apple scab, potato blight, barley mildew, barley leaf blotch, wheat septoria and wheat eyespot. All this information is collated, printed and distributed widely to plant pathologists in the advisory services, research establishments and various sections of commercial manufacturing and sales organisations. The report is broadcast on BBC radio, featured on teletext (BBC Ceefax), viewdata (Prestel) and Telephone Information Services (TIS), and published in a number of national and regional agricultural journals. Disease intelligence information aids in the interpretation of disease forecasts and equally disease forecasts aid in advising on the need for pesticide application.     

A Synoptic Approach to Regional Forecasting in Plant Protection (The Hungarian Forecasting System)1

Forecasting is of primary importance for the effectiveness and profitability of plant protection on a regional and on a farm level. Farmers should be guided by regional forecasts outlining major trends of pest infestations and epidemics. However, additional farm observations are also needed to adapt general trends to local farm conditions. The Hungarian National Plant Protection Organization embraces the Agrochemistry Centre and 20 regional Stations. Plant protection forecasting activities are organized and supervised by the Forecasting Department of the Centre and every Station has a Forecasting Group. Data acquisition is the first step in the forecasting procedure. It is organized on an ecological rather than on an administrative basis. A national system of ecological forecasting regions has been set up and the results of observations are processed on a regional basis. There are permanent and temporary sampling localities and additional phenological stations within the regions. At the permanent sampling sites and at the phenological stations, observations are carried out according to a national sampling plan consisting of detailed routine instructions for quantitative and qualitative surveys. Three types of biological information are included: appearance of pests/diseases and their seasonal development, density distributions of pests/diseases over forecasting regions in selected periods of the year, and crop plant phenology. Information is coded at the Stations and forwarded to the Centre by telex every day during the growing season. At the Centre, the data are plotted immediately into maps combining the ecological forecasting regions and a national grid system of the country. Final data processing is done on a daily basis by using a synoptic mapping technique and forecasts are regularly released by means of several media to the large farms, home gardeners and private growers. The media include forecast circulars, at irregular time intervals, released by the Centre and the Stations, as well as weekly journals of agriculture or horticulture and national and local daily newspapers. The Hungarian Radio and Television also broadcast plant protection forecasts weekly and fortnightly, respectively. La prévision est trés importante puisqu'elle détermine L'efficacité et la rentabilité d'une mesure de protection. Les exploitants devraient pouvoir bénéficier d'un service de previsions régionales faisant état des grandes lignes de I'évolution des infestations et des épidemies. Ces données doivént cependant être doublees d'observations faites au niveau de I'exploitation, afin dajuster I'information generale aux conditions locales. En Hongrie, I'organisation nationale phytosanitaire comprend le Centre de la protection des végétaux et d'agrochimie, ainsi que 20 stations régionales. La prévision est assuree par le département du Centre qui est rélie aux groupes de specialistes pour la prévision, installés dans chacune des stations. L'acquisition des donneés, qui constitue la premiere étape de la prevision, repose sur un concept écologique. Le pays est ainsi subdivisé en régions écologiques et les observations sont traitees au niveau régional. Dans chaque region, il y a des stations d'echantillonnage permanentes ou temporaires, ainsi qu'un certain nombre de stations phenologiques. Les observations aux stations permanentes et phenologiques se font conformément à un plan national, qui precise la fqon de proceder aux inspections quantitatives et qualitatives de routine. Les données nécessaires comprennent: 1) I'apparition des déprédateurs et leur evolution au cours de la saison; 2) la distribution et la densité des depredateurs dans les regions a certaines epoques precisees; 3) la phénologie des plantes. Elles sont enregistrees aux stations et sont quotidiennement transmises par telex au Centre pendant la periode de vegétation. Au Centre, les données sont rapportées sur des cartes representant les régions écologiques et qui sont superposees sur une carte du pays. Le traitement final des données est assuré tous les jours par le recours à une technique synoptique de cartographie. Les prévisions sont communiquees selon les nécessites aux grandes exploitations et aux exploitants privés par bulletins expédies par le Centre et les stations, ou par la voie de revues hebdomadaires dagriculture ou dhorticulture et de journaux nationaux ou locaux. La radio et la television transmettent des prévisions phytosanitaires à intervalles d'une ou deux semaines.     

绿洲土地利用变化未来趋势预测及其调控研究

土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)是全球变化研究的重要核心问题之一,基于区域和地方尺度的绿洲土地覆盖变化信息的定量提取与模拟预测在干旱区生态环境演变研究中具有重要的价值,也是对全球变化研究的重要补充。选择干旱区典型绿洲新疆于田地区为研究靶区,对于田绿洲过去近17年土地利用/覆盖动态变化定量研究基础上,利用马尔柯夫—CA模型模拟土地利用的动态演变过程,定量分析其演变的特点和预测其未来的演变趋势,以便为未来绿洲区域人口、资源与环境可持续发展,进行合理化调控奠定基础。