The global distribution of wind-induced upwelling

The global distribution of wind-induced upwelling at the base of the surface Ekman layer has been computed from the COADS monthly wind stress from 1950 to 1988. In contrast to previous studies where the Ekman transport equations became invalid near the Equator, this paper computed upwelling right to the equator by incorporating friction in the surface transport equations. Comparing the seasonal changes in the equatorial upwelling between the Atlantic and the Pacific, we found that the Atlantic had the larger magnitude change while the Pacific had the larger latitudinal shift. The anomalous wind-induced upwelling/downwelling associated with El Niño were computed over several latitudinal bands in the Pacific by compositing the data from six El Nino events. By plotting the July zonally averaged upwelling anomalies in the Pacific in a latitude-time contour plot, we found northward phase propagation at about 3.5° latitude per decade in the low latitudes, a feature not found in the January upwelling. Long-term upwelling trends were computed and their potential influence on fisheries are discussed.     

Variation in the distribution of ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits: links with coastal upwelling and climate change

In this analysis, an atypical northward shift in the distribution of age‐1 ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits off Oregon in 2000 and 2002–2004 was linked to anomolously strong coastal upwelling winds off southern Oregon (42°N latitude) in April–July of the year of larval release (t?1). This is the first clear evidence that strong upwelling winds can depress local recruitment of ocean shrimp. Regression analysis confirmed a long‐term negative correlation between log_e of ocean shrimp recruitment and April sea level height (SLH) at Crescent City, California, in the year of larval release, for both northern and southern Oregon waters. The regional pattern of ocean shrimp catches and seasonal upwelling winds showed that, although the timing of the spring transition as reflected in April SLH drives ocean shrimp recruitment success off Oregon generally, the strength and consistency of spring upwelling limits the distribution of large concentrations of ocean shrimp at the southern end of the northern California/Oregon/Washington area. A northward shift in 1999 and 2001–03 in the northern edge of this ‘zone of maximum upwelling’ is the likely cause of the weak southern Oregon recruitment and resulting atypical distribution of ocean shrimp observed off Oregon in 2000 and 2002–04, with a return to a more typical catch distribution as spring upwelling moderated in subsequent years. It is noted that a northward shift in the conditions that produce strong and steady spring upwelling winds is consistent with many predictions of global climate models under conditions of global warming.     

Clupeoid larval growth and plankton production in the Benguela upwelling system

Upwelling is a characteristic feature of the Benguela system. Strong upwelling leads to high primary production, which, in turn, supports large biomass of higher trophic levels. To analyse intra‐, interannual and decadal variability of fish recruitment, growth, and distribution, different methods to quantify this upwelling have been used. In the present work, an upwelling index, modelled diatom primary production, based on outputs from a numerical model for the Benguela upwelling system, is proposed. Upwelled water brings large amounts of nutrients into the euphotic zone and this supports primary productivity, which can be considered a preconditioner for the zooplankton that clupeoid larvae feed on. Therefore, it is assumed that high upwelling gives the potential for good feeding conditions for these larvae. This fact has motivated the use of the modelled index for upwelling intensity as a proxy for food availability and an investigation of the interannual variability of observed mean individual weight of Cape anchovy (Engraulis capensis) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) recruits. The study shows that the mean Cape anchovy recruit weight has a linear relationship with upwelling activity along the transport route (from the spawning to the nursery areas) and inside the nursery areas, while sardine have an Optimal Environmental Window (OEW) relationship to the upwelling on the transport route. A possible explanation for these observed differences is the prey the larvae feed on and the change in the plankton community as a function of upwelling activity.     

The influence of diel vertical migration on zooplankton transport and recruitment in an upwelling region: estimates from a coupled behavioral-physical model

Diel vertical migration (DVM) is a common zooplankton behavior in which organisms reside in surface or near‐surface waters at night and at deeper depths during the day. In many upwelling regions, DVM reduces the transport of organisms away from the region. It is unclear, however, what role DVM plays in recruitment (the arrival of larvae or juveniles to locations where they will become reproducing adults) to upwelling regions. In this study, we estimate the influence of DVM on zooplankton transport, the level of recruitment of locally produced propagules (self‐recruitment), and sources of recruits in the upwelling region near Monterey Bay, California, by simulating the trajectories of fixed‐depth and vertically migrating organisms with a drifter‐tracking algorithm driven by climatological velocity fields from a three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model. Our simulations suggest that DVM into subsurface poleward and onshore currents during the day does not fully compensate for equatorward and offshore transport in the surface Ekman layer at night and does not retain zooplankton in the Monterey Bay region. Our simulations also suggest that DVM decreases the ability of zooplankton to return to the region after being transported away and shifts source regions for recruits closer to the bay. While DVM does not appear to substantially increase the potential for self‐recruitment to the region, this study indicates that other mechanisms, such as transport during non‐upwelling periods, continuous transport below the surface, increases in mean transport depth over time, or seasonal changes in hydrography, may still enable relatively high levels of self‐recruitment to this highly advective region.     

Fish larvae distribution off Mejillones Peninsula (northern Chile) during a coastal upwelling event in Spring 1999: interactions with the cold upwelling plume

We examined the interaction between vertical and horizontal distribution of fish larvae off Mejillones Peninsula (23°S), northern Chile, under conditions of active coastal upwelling. An oceanographic survey covered spatial variability in temperature, chlorophyll- a (chl a ), dissolved oxygen, salinity and water density. Fish larvae were sampled during daytime and nighttime periods through two consecutive days in four stations: two inside and two outside of a well-developed upwelling plume, and at three depth strata: 0–20, 20–80 and 80–200 m. Eighteen taxa were analysed, of which the Myctophidae Diogenychthys atlanticus , Diogenichthys laternatus , and the anchovy Engraulis ringens , were most abundant. Our data showed little evidence for diel vertical migration and larvae were more abundant at depth (>80 m) under low temperature (∼12°C) and low chl a (∼2 mg m^–3), below the highly advective upper layer. The exploratory K -means analysis allowed the separation of data into two distinct habitats: upwelling and nonupwelling types. Most taxa were allocated in nonupwelling waters, i.e. outside the cold plume. However, short-term variations (<24 h) in the position of the upwelling plume influenced both horizontal and vertical occurrence as well as abundance of taxa, and caused variability in temperature, oxygen and chl a . These changes in oceanographic conditions, caused by upwelling circulation and the dynamics of the cold plume, may sharply modify the habitat of fish larvae and have an important role in survivorship and recruitment success.     

The importance of retention processes in upwelling areas for recruitment of Octopus vulgaris: the example of the Arguin Bank (Mauritania)

The relationship between recruitment of octopus ( Octopus vulgaris ) populations and environmental conditions off the Arguin Bank (Mauritania) in the main nursery ground was investigated between 1990 and 1996. Three environmental indices (coastal upwelling intensity, coastal retention and wind-induced turbulence indices) are derived from satellite infrared imagery (METEOSAT) and from the COADS (Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set) data to quantify the coastal retention process and productivity, both believed to be important factors for recruitment success. The octopus recruitment index as well as environmental indices fluctuate annually and seasonally. Linear regression and generalized additive models (GAM) are used to relate recruitment indices and the environmental conditions prevailing during the early-life planktonic stage, known to be the main critical period of the octopus life cycle. Coastal retention especially appears to be a key factor for recruitment success. Owing to seasonal variations in enrichment and mixing processes, larvae benefit from retention in the spring but are negatively affected by a breakdown in retention in the autumn. Increasing upwelling intensity is beneficial for octopus recruitment, as the Arguin Bank limits the detrimental dispersive effects linked to upwelling.     

Seasonal and interannual variations of oceanographic conditions off Mangalore coast (Karnataka, India) in the Malabar upwelling system during 1995–2004 and their influences on the pelagic fishery

Mangalore coast is well known for its multi‐species and multi‐gear fisheries and the fishery and oceanographic features of this region is a true representation of the Malabar upwelling system. Ten years of study (1995–2004) of oceanographic parameters has been carried out from the inshore waters off Mangalore to understand their seasonal and interannual variations and influences on the pelagic fishery of the region. Attempt has been also made to understand the influence of local and global environmental conditions on the alternating patterns of abundance between the Indian mackerel and oil sardine from the area. Field‐ and satellite‐derived oceanographic data have shown that coastal upwelling occurs during July–September with a peak in August resulting in high nutrient concentrations and biological productivity along the coast. Nearly 70% of the pelagic fish catch, dominated by oil sardine and mackerel, was obtained during September–December, during or immediately after the upwelling season. Catches of scombroid fishes were significantly related to cold Sea Surface Temperature, while such relationships were not observed for sardines and anchovies. Significant positive correlations were observed between the ENSO events (MEI) and seawater temperature from the study area. The extreme oceanographic events associated with the cold La Niña, which preceded the exceptional 1997–98 El Niño event, were responsible for the collapse of the pelagic fishery, especially the mackerel fishery along the southwest coast of India (Malabar upwelling system). Coinciding with the collapse of the mackerel fishery, oil sardine populations revived during 1999–2000 all along the southwest coast of India. Tolerance of oil sardine to El Niño / La Niña events and the low predatory pressure experienced by their eggs and larvae due to the collapse of mackerel population might have resulted in its population revival.     

Impact of spring upwelling variability off southern‐central Chile on common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) recruitment

Off southern‐central Chile, the impact of spring upwelling variability on common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) recruitment was examined by analyzing satellite and coastal station winds, satellite chlorophyll, and common sardine recruitment from a stock assessment model. In austral spring, the intensity of wind‐driven upwelling is related to sea surface temperature (SST) from the Niño 3.4 region, being weak during warm periods (El Niño) and strong during cold periods (La Niña). Interannual changes in both spring upwelling intensity and SST from the Niño 3.4 region are related to changes in remotely sensed chlorophyll over the continental shelf. In turn, year‐to‐year changes in coastal chlorophyll are tightly coupled to common sardine recruitment. We propose that, in the period 1991–2004, interannual changes in the intensity of spring upwelling affected the abundance and availability of planktonic food for common sardine, and consequently determined pre‐recruit survival and recruitment strength. However, the importance of density‐dependent factors on the reproductive dynamic cannot be neglected, as a negative association exists between spawning biomass and recruitment‐per‐spawning biomass. Coastal chlorophyll, upwelling intensity, and SST anomalies from the Niño 3.4 region could potentially help to predict common sardine recruitment scenarios under strong spring upwelling and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related anomalies.     

Simulation and quantification of enrichment and retention processes in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem

Important environmental processes for the survival and recruitment of early life stages of pelagic fishes have been synthesized through Bakun's fundamental triad as enrichment, concentration and retention processes (A. Bakun, 1996, Patterns in the Ocean. Ocean Processes and Marine Population Dynamics. San Diego, CA, USA: University of California Sea Grant). This conceptual framework states that from favourable spawning habitats, eggs and larvae would be transported to and/or retained in places where food originating from enrichment areas would be concentrated. We propose a method for quantifying two of the triad processes, enrichment and retention, based on the Lagrangian tracking of particles transported within water velocity fields generated by a three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model. We apply this method to the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem, constructing putative maps of enrichment and retention. We comment on these maps regarding main features of the circulation in the region, and investigate seasonal variability of the processes. We finally discuss the results in relation to available knowledge on the reproductive strategies of two pelagic clupeoid species abundant in the southern Benguela, anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardinops sagax). Our approach is intended to be sufficiently generic so as to allow its application to other upwelling systems.     

Diversity,conservation status and threats to native oysters (Ostreidae) around the Atlantic and Caribbean coasts of South America

• 1. Despite the extensive literature on the ecology, systematics and culture of oysters worldwide, an assessment of their diversity, distribution and conservation status for the Atlantic and Caribbean coasts (i.e. depth <50 m) of South America is lacking. Such information is crucial because of the increasing coastal development that threatens most nearshore habitats throughout the region.
• 2. The available information on oysters on Atlantic and Caribbean coasts is reviewed with a focus on identifying regional conservation priorities based on ecological and socio‐economic importance, as well as the magnitude of current or potential threats faced by oyster populations. The current status of α‐ taxonomy within the Ostreidae was also examined.
• 3. Ten species of native Ostreidae (plus three introduced species) inhabit the coastal waters of the Atlantic and Caribbean coasts of South America.
• 4. Oyster species were ranked according to their biological/ecological and socio‐economic value and conservation status within 10 distinct ecoregions. Crassostrea gasar in the Eastern Brazil ecoregion, C. rhizophorae in the Central Caribbean ecoregion and Ostrea puelchana in the North Patagonian Gulfs ecoregion should receive the highest priority for immediate conservation action due to extensive loss of mangrove habitat in the two former regions and evidence of decline of one of the most important populations for the latter. The need for a standardized methodology to assess the status of oyster populations throughout the ecoregions is identified.
• 5. On a local scale, the allocation of territorial use rights for fisheries under a collaborative/voluntary community framework is strongly advocated to fulfil management, conservation and poverty alleviation goals in these developing countries.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental factors and recruitment of mackerel, Scomber scombrus L. 1758, along the north-east Atlantic coasts of Europe

Increasingly, scientific publications refer to some of the environmental factors affecting the recruitment in fish species. However, presently, there is little information available concerning the influence of the environment on the recruitment of Scomber scombrus, the North-east Atlantic mackerel (NEAM). In this contribution, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), upwelling and turbulent mixing (or `turbulence') series were compared with recruitment estimates, at age-0. The results show that the southern prespawning migration pattern of the Atlantic mackerel is directed towards areas with low turbulent mixing at spawning time, providing a `stable environment' for egg and larval survival. In the southern areas, where the spawning starts, the turbulence conditions of prespawning and spawning periods have the largest influence on the success of recruitment; this is related, possibly, to the more `stable' weather in the subsequent months and for the remainder of the year. In contrast, in the northern areas, the role of turbulence over the entire year becomes increasingly more relevant; this is related, possibly, to the high levels of turbulence during autumn and winter, which may become limiting to the survival of juveniles. About 50% of the variability in the Atlantic mackerel recruitment may be explained by means of environmental variables, such as turbulence. Other variables, such as upwelling and NAO, are only slightly, or not, statistically significant.     

Trends in carbon flux to seabirds in the Peruvian upwelling system: effects of wind and fisheries on population regulation

We hypothesized that change in the annual population size of guano‐producing seabirds (cormorant, Phalacrocorax bougainvillii; booby, Sula variegata; pelican, Pelecanus thagus) is a response to changes in primary and secondary production of the Peruvian upwelling system. We tested this hypothesis by modeling nitrate input through upwelling to the upper layers of the ocean off Peru between 6° and 14°S using data on wind stress and sea surface temperature. The model predicted the amount of carbon fixed by primary production each year from 1925 to 2000, which was then apportioned to the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) biomass and ultimately to the seabird population and the anchovy fishery, the largest single‐species fishery on Earth. The model predicted a marked increase in primary production as a consequence of increasing wind stress. It overestimated the anchovy biomass after the collapse of the fishery in 1972, but closely predicted the growth of seabird populations from 1925 to the mid‐1960s, and their decline thereafter, explaining about 94% of the variation in seabird numbers from 1925 to 2000. The model indicates the seabirds consumed 14.4% of the available anchovies and, thus, that seabirds consumed 2.3% of the new production, before the development of the anchovy fishery, and only 2.2% of the available anchovies and 0.3% of the new production after the development of the fishery. The model results clarify the roles that environmental and anthropogenic factors may have had in regulating the guano‐producing seabird populations. It indicates that the growth of seabird populations from 1925 to 1955 was likely a response to increased productivity of the Peruvian upwelling system and that the subsequent drastic decline in seabird abundance was likely due to competition for food with the fishery, which caught ～85% of the anchovies, which otherwise would have been available for the seabirds. This model also shows that an increase in oceanic primary production promotes reproductive success and population growth in higher trophic level organisms.     

Pelagic ecology of a northern boundary current system: effects of upwelling on the production and distribution of sardine (Sardinops sagax), anchovy (Engraulis australis) and southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) in the Great Australian Bight

Shelf waters of southern Australia support the world's only northern boundary current ecosystem. Although there are some indications of intense nitrate enrichment in the eastern Great Australian Bight (GAB) arising from upwelling of the Flinders Current, the biological consequences of these processes are poorly understood. We show that productivity in the eastern GAB is low during winter, but that coastal upwelling at several locations during the austral summer–autumn results in localized increases in surface chlorophyll a concentrations and downstream enhancement of zooplankton biomass. Sardine (Sardinops sagax) and anchovy (Engraulis australis) eggs and larvae are abundant and widely distributed in shelf waters of the eastern and central GAB during summer–autumn, with high densities of sardine eggs and larvae occurring in areas with high zooplankton biomass. Egg densities and distributions support previous evidence suggesting that the spawning biomass of sardine in the waters off South Australia is an order of magnitude higher than elsewhere in southern Australia. Sardine comprised >50% of the identified prey species of juvenile southern bluefin tuna (SBT, Thunnus maccoyii) collected during this study. Other studies have shown that the lipid content of sardine from the GAB is relatively high during summer and autumn. We suggest that juvenile SBT migrate into the eastern and central GAB during each summer–autumn to access the high densities of lipid‐rich sardines that are available in the region during the upwelling period. Levels of primary, secondary and fish production in the eastern GAB during summer–autumn are higher than those recorded in other parts of Australia, and within the lower portion of ranges observed during upwelling events in the productive eastern boundary current systems off California, Peru and southern Africa.     

The influence of wind and temperature on the catch rate of the American lobster (Homarus americanus) during spring fisheries off eastern Canada

The effects of wind and temperature on catch rate of American lobster (Homarus americanus) in the Baie des Chaleurs and off Cape Breton Island in Eastern Canada were investigated. Data on lobster catch and the number of trap hauls were available through a fishermen's volunteer logbook program, bottom temperatures were measured from thermistors either moored nearby or placed inside lobster traps and wind measurements were obtained from local airports. In the Baie des Chaleurs and off the east coast of Cape Breton, a positive and significant correlation was found between the mean temperature change during the 24 h prior to the traps being hauled and the change in the average catch of lobsters per trap haul. Catch rates rose with increasing bottom temperatures and fell with declining bottom temperatures. Higher correlations between changes in temperature and catch rates occurred at sites where the temperature variance was greater. The short‐term fluctuations in lobster catch rates corresponding to temperature changes are hypothesized to result from behavioral changes affecting lobster activity. In both study areas, the large temperature variability was mainly forced by alongshore winds producing upwelling and downwelling, consistent with a classical Ekman response. The effect of the winds on lobster catch is shown to be principally due to their influence on ocean bottom temperatures. Along the south coast of Cape Breton, no relationship was found between catch rates and either temperature or wind, perhaps because lower lobster abundance resulted in a lower signal‐to‐noise ratio. The results of this study qualitatively support the observations by fishermen of a wind‐induced effect on lobster catch rates.     

Influence of episodic upwelling on capelin, Mallotusvillosus, and Atlantic cod, Gadusmorhua, catches in Newfoundland coastal waters

Wind-induced upwelling in the north-west Atlantic has been hypothesized to influence catch rates of fish by gear fishing at fixed locations. Passive movement to shallow depths during upwelling has been proposed to increase encounter rates of fish with net leaders set at the coast. However, supporting evidence is not conclusive, possibly because fish respond to strong events rather than all events. We investigated whether catch rates of capelin, Mallotusvillosus, and Atlantic cod, Gadusmorhua, were related to the strength of upwelling, as measured by the rates of water temperature change, or to stage of upwelling. Capelin trap catches were positively related to increases in water temperature, representing the relaxation phase. This result was due primarily to increases in catch after strong (> 4°C change) rather than after typical (< 4°C change) upwelling events. Cod trap catches were not related to upwelling strength but did increase 1–2 days after typical events. The data suggest that upwelling increases capelin movement, while the return of warmer surface water after an upwelling event increases cod movement.     

Springtime ichthyoplankton of the slope region off the north-eastern United States of America: larval assemblages, relation to hydrography and implications for larval transport

Larval transport in the slope region off north‐eastern North America influences recruitment to juvenile habitats for a variety of fishes that inhabit the continental shelf. In this study, collections of larval fishes were made during springtime over the continental slope to provide insights into larval distributions and transport. Ichthyoplankton composition and distribution mirrored the physical complexity of the region. Three larval fish assemblages were defined, each with different water mass distributions. A Gulf Stream assemblage was found predominantly in the Gulf Stream and associated with filaments of discharged Gulf Stream water in the Slope Sea. Larvae of this assemblage originated from oceanic and shelf regions south of Cape Hatteras. Several members of this assemblage utilize habitats in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) as juveniles (Pomatomus saltatrix, Peprilus triacanthus) and other members of the assemblage may share this life cycle (Mugil curema, Sphyraena borealis, Urophycis regia). A Slope Sea assemblage was found in all water masses, and was composed of epi‐ and mesopelagic fish larvae, as well as larvae of benthic shelf/slope residents. Larvae of one member of this assemblage (U. tenuis) are spawned in the Slope Sea but cross the shelf‐slope front and use nearshore habitats for juvenile nurseries. A MAB shelf assemblage was found in MAB shelf water and was composed of larvae that were spawned on the shelf. Some of these species may cross into the Slope Sea before returning to MAB shelf habitats (e.g. Enchelyopus cimbrius, Glyptocephalus cynoglossus). Previous studies have examined the effect of warm‐core rings on larval distributions, but this study identifies the importance of smaller‐scale features of the MAB shelf/slope front and of filaments associated with Gulf Stream meanders. In combination with these advective processes, the dynamic nature of larval distributions in the Slope Sea appears to be influenced, to varying degrees, by both vertical and horizontal behaviour of larvae and pelagic juveniles themselves.     

Responses in growth rate of larval northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) to anomalous upwelling in the northern California Current

We examined variability in growth rate during the larval stage of northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) in response to physical and biological environmental factors in 2005 and 2006. The onset of spring upwelling was anomalously delayed by 2–3 months until mid‐July in 2005; in contrast, spring upwelling in 2006 began as a normal year in the northern California Current. Larval and early juvenile E. mordax were collected in August, September, and October off the coast of Oregon and Washington. Hatch dates ranged from May to September, with peaks in June and August in 2005 and a peak in July in 2006, based on the number of otolith daily increments. Back‐calculated body length‐at‐age in the June 2005 hatch cohort was significantly smaller than in the August 2005 cohort, which had comparable growth to the July 2006 cohort. Standardized otolith daily increment widths as a proxy for seasonal variability in somatic growth rates in 2005 were negative until late July and then changed to positive with intensification of upwelling. The standardized increment width was a positive function of biomass of chlorophyll a concentration, and neritic cold‐water and oceanic subarctic copepod species sampled biweekly off Newport, Oregon. Our results suggest that delayed upwelling in 2005 resulted in low food availability and, consequently, reduced E. mordax larval growth rate in early summer, but once upwelling began in July, high food availability enhanced larval growth rate to that typical of a normal upwelling year (e.g., 2006) in the northern California Current.     

Quantifying the effects of wind, upwelling, curl, sea surface temperature and sea level height on growth and maturation of a California Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population

We used retrospective scale growth chronologies and return size and age of female Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from a northern California, USA, population collected over 22 run years and encompassing 18 complete cohorts to model the effects of oceanographic conditions on growth during ocean residence. Using path analyses and partial least squares regressive approaches, we related growth rate and maturation to seven environmental variables (sea level height, sea surface temperature, upwelling, curl, scalar wind, northerly pseudo‐wind stress and easterly pseudo‐wind stress). During the first year of life, growth was negatively related to summer sea surface temperature, curl and scalar winds, and was positively related to summer upwelling. During the second, third and fourth growth years growth rate was negatively related to sea level height and sea surface temperature, and was positively related to upwelling and curl. The age at maturation and the fork length at which three ocean‐winter fish returned were related to the environment experienced during the spring before the third winter at sea (the year prior return). Faster growth during the year before return led to earlier maturation and larger return size.     

Coastal sea surface temperature and coho salmon production off the north-west United States

A time series of mean weekly sea surface temperature (SST) images was used to investigate the relationship between fluctuations in the marine survival of hatchery-reared coho salmon and coastal ocean dynamics off the north-western United States (51° to 37°N) between 1985 and 1996, using univariate and nonlinear bivariate regression analysis. Ocean conditions were matched against survival for a number of different annual time frames according to the sum of negative or positive weekly SST anomalies. From the univariate analyses, the sum of negative anomalies from April to June, when the juvenile salmon first enter the ocean, was found to have an R ² of 0.88 against survival with 1991 excluded as an outlier. The bivariate multiple regressions used the sum of negative anomalies from April to June as the first independent variable. When the sums of positive anomalies from the following periods during the fishes' second calendar year in the ocean were each used as the second independent variable, the R ² values were all greater than or equal to 0.92 (with no data points excluded): January to June, February to June, April to June, March to June. These results are discussed within the context of coastal ocean processes. It is concluded that the analysis of SST image time series might allow management to make reasonable forecasts of hatchery-reared coho salmon survival.