The Spatial Impact of Reaganomics: A Test of Six Models

Recent analyses of the Reagan budget reallocations suggest that the spatial distribution of public expenditures among the American states have undergone a major change. What remains unclear, however, is why the Reagan budget reallocations generated these clearly defined spatial effects. In trying to answer this question, we identify five explanations of the spatial impacts, explanations focusing on electoral, partisan, wealth, urban-rural, and expenditure base effects. Along with controls for regional effects, these explanations are tested by OLS regression analysis of data on the state allocations of federal expenditures from the last Carter to the first Reagan budgets.     

Is There a Trade and Defense Perimeter? The Regional Impacts of Trade and Defense Spending in the United States, 1978-1986

Using an expanded shift share technique to impute international trade-related industrial job change, the extent to which structural changes in trade and defense spending appear to explain state economic performance differentials is explored. The findings show there is limited support for the “trade perimeter” argument, but strong support for the hypothesized relationship between military procurement spending and state trade performance. To the extent that defense commitments, especially to private sector procurement and R & D, have operated as an informal industrial policy, particularly by guaranteeing strong domestic sales, they have enabled a significant number of states peripheral to the traditional industrial heartland to build a strong international trade posture. The conclusion offers observations on the economic development implications of these findings.     

Defense Impact Analysis Within a social Accounting Framework

This paper uses a social accounting matrix (SAM) of the California economy to evaluate (1) industrial-occupational linkages associated with defense production, and (2) the relative impact of defense expenditures in a regional economy. Multipliers derived from the SAM are used to trace the distribution of wages and salaries payments from 24 industries to managerial, professional, skilled, and unskilled sectors of the labor force. Expenditures by federal defense and non-defense sectors and households are used to assess the relative impacts of defense spending in the overall regional economy. The results indicate that duality is prevalent in the regional labor market, with managerial and professional occupations receiving the greatest benefits from defense production. Overall impacts to the regional economy are less attributable to defense spending than non-defense and household sectors.     

The Direct and Indirect (Spillover) Effects of Productive Government Spending on State Economic Growth

Using data on 48 contiguous U.S. states and a spatial econometric approach, this paper examines short‐ and long‐run effects of productive higher education and highway infrastructure spending financed by different revenue sources on state economic growth. Following the Lagrange Multiplier, Wald, and Likelihood Ratio tests, the data are found to be characterized by both spatial lag and spatial error processes, leading to the estimation of a dynamic spatial Durbin model. By decomposing results of the dynamic spatial Durbin model into short‐ and long‐run direct as well as indirect (spillover) effects, we show that accounting for spillover effects provides a more comprehensive approach to uncovering the effects of productive government spending on growth. We find that, regardless of the financing source, productive higher education and highway spending have statistically significant short‐ and long‐run direct as well as spillover effects on state income growth.     

Location matters: A spatial econometric analysis of regional resilience in the European Union

The aim of this study is to empirically examine regional resilience by assessing economic growth patterns in two distinct groups of regions across the European Union in the aftermath of the 2008 economic and financial crisis. In an effort to consider the regions as interconnected economic areas and account for spillover effects, the model incorporates complex spatial effects that consider both spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence. The analysis follows a step‐wise approach. First, spatial heterogeneity is assessed by employing Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, which identifies two distinct spatial regimes, a core and a periphery, based on their initial level of economic development. A Spatial Durbin Model is then employed to estimate the determinants of regional resilience and growth in both regimes, including potential spillover effects. Results indicate that while both spatial regimes experience processes of economic convergence, recent determinants of growth, as well as spillover dynamics, differ across the two. In the core regime, better institutions, higher shares of investment, and an economy specialized in higher value‐added sectors significantly spur domestic growth, with investment also inducing positive spillover effects to neighbouring regions. In the peripheral regime, low shares of lower‐secondary educational attainment and high shares of tertiary educational attainment have a significant positive effect on domestic growth, with higher shares of tertiary educational attainment also inducing positive spillover effects. Moreover, technological readiness is also identified as an important factor in the peripheral regime with positive spillover effects. Upon the bedrock of these findings, initial policy proposals are offered.     

State Employment Growth: The Impact of Taxes and Economic Development Agency Spending

ABSTRACT The results of this study confirm the expected positive relationship between economic development agency spending and employment growth among the states. Furthermore, it is concluded that past studies, by failing to control for state economic development agency spending in estimated regression equations, have underestimated the negative impact of personal taxes on employment growth.     

Immigration,Migration, and State Redistributive Expenditures

The effect of immigration on state and local budgets is a frequent topic of both political and academic conversations. A controversial issue among scholars is whether or not immigration induces outmigration of low income native born residents, a population movement which would potentially have implications for the jurisdictional distribution of immigration's fiscal impact. It is hypothesized here that if interstate poverty migration occurred, it should cause fiscal spillovers by distributing some of the public sector burden of immigration from immigrant “host” states to neighboring states. This paper uses cross‐sectional state data from 1988–1995 to explore the relationship between immigration in neighbor states and state redistributive expenditures. The results suggest that there is a positive relationship between immigration to neighboring states and redistributive expenditures. While most discussion of the fiscal impact of immigration has focused on the effects on host states and localities, the implications of these findings are that there are fiscal spillovers to neighboring states, suggesting that fiscal impacts on host states have been over‐estimated and effects on neighboring states have been underestimated. Additionally, the implications of recent welfare reform, which gives states the opportunity to use citizenship as a criterion for program eligibility, are discussed.     

Internet development and the spatial optimization of regional productivity: Evidence from China

The rapid development of the Internet had a profound influence on the spatial distribution of economic output activities. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this study takes China's regions as research samples and construct a spatial econometric model to empirically analyze the impact of Internet development on regional productivity. The analysis reveals that the distribution of regional productivity in China had significant spatial correlation; regional productivity had positive spatial externalities; Internet development had significant promotion effects and positive spatial spillover effects to regional productivity, but the effects are heterogeneous in different subregions. The subregion analysis shows that the optimization effect of the Internet on regional productivity exhibits heterogeneity in different subregions. The threshold effect analysis reveals the increasing marginal effect of Internet development on regional productivity, and economic development and human capital supply are important factors restricting this marginal effect. Altogether, this study provides useful references on the positive effects of the Internet on regional productivity in the spatial dimension, and suggests that the policy makers can optimize the spatial distribution of regional productivity by promoting Internet access in various regions and narrowing the digital divide among regions.     

Global Markets and the Role of Geographical Proximity in Mexico's Employment Growth

In the context of greater economic integration with global markets and structural economic reforms, this paper analyses regional and sectoral employment growth dynamics in Mexican states between 2004 and 2014. The methodology is based on spatial shift‐share analysis that explicitly considers interregional interactions in employment while assessing potential spillover effects arising from spatial interactions among states and industrial sectors. The results suggest a competitive effect from some industries—such as those related to science and specialized suppliers, intensive scale industries and dominated providers—which led to the formation of industrial corridors of neighboring states that connect the central region with the northeast region of the country. It was also found that proximity to states such as Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, Guanajuato, San Luis Potosi, and Puebla has positively influenced neighboring states in terms of employment growth rates. The results also support the argument of some sort of de‐concentration of economic activity in the capital, Mexico City, toward neighboring states.     

Does Federal Aid to States Aid the States?

Using data from 1977 to 2009, we explore whether the agency issuing federal aid to states influences the rate of state economic growth. We find that agencies' housing poverty alleviation programs, such as the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Labor, have negative effects. The Department of Commerce and the Department of Interior have consistent positive effects, although this last effect is due to inordinately disproportionate spending in the state of Wyoming. Overall growth effects are relatively modest, suggesting that potential future cuts to federal discretionary spending may not be as damaging as feared.     

城乡统筹背景下的村级土地利用规划空间布局研究——以重庆市北碚区静观镇4村规划为例

为探讨城乡统筹背景下的村级土地利用规划空间布局,采用趋势分析法和实证分析法分析了经济社会发展趋势和农业结构调整对土地利用变化的影响,即产业结构发展引导的村域用地空间布局优化。结果表明,产业结构的空间布局有利于土地利用结构的调整和空间布局,带动了区域经济的发展,实现了集约和合理利用土地。由研究可得,土地利用规划中需改革规划思路,突出产业空间结构引导土地利用规划空间布局的战略性地位。     

Natural Amenities and Rural Development: Understanding Spatial and Distributional Attributes

ABSTRACT Contemporary resource management practice and rural development planning increasingly emphasize the integration of resource extractive industries with non‐market‐based recreational and amenity values. There is a growing empirical literature which suggests that natural amenities impact regional economies through aggregate measures of economic performance such as population, income, and/or employment growth, and housing development. We maintain that assessing the developmental aspects of amenity‐led regional change requires a more thorough focus on alternative measures of economic performance such as income distribution and spatial organization. In the applied research presented here we investigate relationships between amenities and regional economic development indicators. Results suggest mixed and generally insignificant amenity‐based associations which highlight the need for appropriate regional economic modeling techniques that account for often dramatic spatial autocorrelation of natural amenity attributes. We conclude that with respect to amenity driven economic growth and development “place in space” matters.     

Geographical Distribution of Unemployment: An Analysis of Provincial Differences in Italy

ABSTRACT Unemployment rates appear to vary widely at a subregional (e.g., local or provincial) level. Using spatial econometric models for spatial autocorrelation, this paper focuses attention on the spatial structure of regional unemployment disparities of Italian provinces. On the basis of findings from the economic literature and of the available socio‐economic data, various model specifications, including different explanatory variables, are tested to investigate the geographical distribution of unemployment in the 103 provinces of Italy for the years 1998 and 2003. The results suggest that there is a clear explanation of unemployment differentials in terms of spatial equilibrium and disequilibrium factors and a significant degree of spatial dependence among labour markets at the provincial level in Italy. Provinces marked by high unemployment, as well as those characterised by low unemployment, tend to be spatially clustered, demonstrating the presence of unemployment “persistency” in space and time regimes.     

Regional Impacts of Foreign Trade in China, 1984–1989

An issue of heated debate in China is whether the current economic reforms would lead to greater regional inequalities. In this paper one aspect of the reforms, the open-door policy, is put into focus. Specifically, the analysis investigates how the effect of foreign trade on economic development differs across regions, and whether these regional variations have changed from 1984 to 1989. Based upon the expansion method, models that resolve both the spatial and temporal variations of a relationship are constructed and estimated. The results indicate that foreign trade benefits core provinces and major industrial regions more than other parts of China, but that these differences have diminished in 1989. These findings may be interpreted as evidence of some diffusion of growth from more developed to less developed regions. On the other hand, regional linkages and the mechanisms of diffusion are not well understood and they deserve more attention and research.     

Community Level Multipliers for Rural Development Initiatives

ABSTRACT The success of economic development initiatives in achieving a significant and sustained improvement for a target area is strongly influenced by the size of the local multiplier. New economic activity is generally site specific and the proportion of spending and re-spending that generates local multiplier effect will vary with the hierarchical level of community in which the activity is located. Leakages in the form of outshopping by community residents and expenditures in the community that constitute payments to agents outside the home community are estimated for communities in six functional levels that, combined, represent the complete trade center hierarchy in Saskatchewan. The resulting multipliers are found to vary with functional level, with the smallest communities having the smallest multipliers. When rural areas are being targeted for economic development, more rural economic activity can be generated by focusing on relatively large rural communities.     

Geographical scale,industrial diversity,and regional economic stability

This paper compares the empirical relationship between industrial diversity and economic stability across different geographical scales, including counties, states, Economic Areas, and Metropolitan Statistical Areas, in the contiguous U.S. between 2000 and 2014. It is found that this relationship varies greatly when it is analyzed across these four geographical scales. Meanwhile, several scale‐related problems, such as the modifiable areal unit problem and the small population problem, are introduced to economic diversity literature and further discussed with this variability of the diversity–stability relationship. This paper concludes that the spatial scale problem as well as the optimal unit can be study dependent. Thus, when choosing analytical units to quantify regional economic structure for a specific study, future research should pay attention to scale‐related problems.     

Weighted spatial dynamic shift-share model as a forecasting tool for a regional economy: The case of South Korea

This study proposes a weighted spatial dynamic shift-share model that considers two regional attributes, namely, interregional interactions and regional receptive capabilities for domestic and international economic change, to improve the forecasting capability of the traditional shift-share model. In particular, the spatial dependence among regions is embodied by a spatial weight matrix based on contiguity. Additionally, regional receptive capabilities are represented by weights imposed on regional industries. Forecasts over the period of 2014–2016 are made for 14 regions in South Korea using the proposed model. The results are compared with actual data from the same period and evaluated in terms of the mean absolute percentage error. The results indicate that the proposed model is more reliable and accurate than the traditional model and other dynamic extensions.     

Innovation and Regional Growth in Mexico: 2000–2010

This paper looks at the factors driving regional growth in Mexico, paying special attention to the potentially growth‐enhancing role of innovation and innovation policy. The analysis combines innovation variables with indicators linked to the formation of adequate social conditions for innovation (the social filter), and spillovers for 31 Mexican states and the Mexico City capital district (the Distrito Federal) during the period 2000–2010. The results indicate that regional economic growth across Mexican states stems from direct investment in research and development (R&D) in areas with favorable social filters and which can benefit not only from knowledge spillovers, but also from being surrounded by rich neighbors with good social conditions. The results stress that, although Mexican innovation policy has been relatively well targeted in order to generate greater economic growth, its relatively modest size may have undermined the attainment of its main objectives.     

The Impact of Tourism on Local Government Expenditures

The aim of this study is to broaden the understanding of the impact of tourism on local government expenditures. Specifically, a regression model is developed to examine the hypothesis that there is a direct relationship between the degree of reliance of the local economy on tourism and local government expenditures. This study indicates that the degree of reliance of a local economy on tourism does have a statistically significant impact on the level of capital outlays, transportation, police protection, fire protection, corrections, parks and recreation, financial administration, and general government administration expenditures. This analysis indicates that the share of tourism in the local economy can influence expenditures on a variety of local government services, thus tourism should not be regarded as a totally costless instrument of economic development.     

辽宁春播期首场透雨时空分布特征及天气形势分析

利用1960-2014年4-5月辽宁省49个气象站逐日降水资料和NCEP再分析资料,对辽宁春播期首场透雨的时空分布特征及天气形势进行分析。结果表明：（1）单站透雨平均出现日期、无透雨次数和平均透雨量的空间分布都存在明显的地区差异,如透雨平均出现日期自东向西逐渐偏晚,辽东南部最早,辽西最晚;（2）区域性透雨近55a平均出现日期为4月19日。从周期变化来看,区域性透雨初日存在14、9、5 和3 a左右的变化周期。区域性透雨量空间分布最多的是在总体一致的背景下呈现自东南向西北递减的分布规律,其次是中东部与西部相反的空间分布,即中东部有（没）透雨,而西部没（有）透雨;（3）辽宁区域性透雨高空环流可分为深槽型、东亚倒Ω型和短波槽型三类天气学模型。