Smoke production from multiple nuclear explosions in nonurban areas

The amount of smoke that may be produced by wildland or rural fires as a consequence of a large-scale nuclear exchange is estimated. The calculation is based on a compilation of rural military facilities, identified from a wide variety of unclassified sources, together with data on their geographic positions, surrounding vegetation (fuel), and weather conditions. The ignition area (corrected for fuel moisture) and the amount of fire spread are used to calculate the smoke production. The results show a substantially lower estimated smoke production (from wildland fires) than in earlier "nuclear winter" studies. The amount varies seasonally and at its peak is less by an order of magnitude than the estimated threshold level necessary for a major attenuation of solar radiation.     

Influence of solar heating and precipitation scavenging on the simulated lifetime of post--nuclear war smoke

The behavior of smoke injected into the atmosphere by massive fires that might follow a nuclear war was simulated. Studies with a three-dimensional global atmospheric circulation model showed that heating of the smoke by sunlight would be important and might produce several effects that would decrease the efficiency with which precipitation removes smoke from the atmosphere. The heating gives rise to vertical motions that carry smoke well above the original injection height. Heating of the smoke also causes the tropopause, which is initially above the smoke, to reform below the heated smoke layer. Smoke above the tropopause is physically isolated from precipitation below. Consequently, the atmospheric residence time of the remaining smoke is greatly increased over the prescribed residence times used in previous models of nuclear winter.     

Radionuclide concentrations in surface air: direct relationship to global fallout

By relating the average monthly hemispheric concentrations of radionuclides in the suirface air to the monthly hemispheric fallout of these nuclides, we have derived proportionility constants. For every disintegration per minutte of a radioactive nutclide per 1000 cubic meters of the suirface air in the Northern Hemisphere, 3.3 kilocuirics of that nutclide will be deposited on the surface; in the Soluthern Hemisphere, 5.0 kilocutries will deposit for every disintegration per minutte per 1000 cuibic meters. Oni the basis of thlese factors, the global deposition of radionuclides can be estimated from a relatively small numbnber of measurements of the radioactivity in the surface air.     

Appearance of a spring maximum in nuclear test debris in 1960

The existence of a spring maximum in fallout deposition due to the disruption of the tropopause in middle latitudes has been debated for the past several years. Evidence obtained from air filters indicates elevated levels of radioactivity from nuclear tests in surface air during April through July 1960.     

Low-Energy Protons: Average Flux in Interplanetary Space during the Last 100,000 Years

The radioactivity of aluminum-26 in two cores of Pacific sediments is an order of magnitude higher than was expected, as a result of its production by cosmic-ray interactions in the terrestrial environment. The higher activity can be explained only by postulating influx with extraterrestrial cosmic dust that had been exposed to significant flux of energetic particles capable of producing nuclear interactions. These particles may well be the "solar" cosmic rays that are sporadically accelerated by Sun during certain solar flares, since the steady galactic cosmic-ray flux is inadequate. The long-term average flux of low-energy protons in interplanetary space, required to yield the observed rate of influx of aluminum-26, is deduced on the basis of certain assumptions.     

Genetic and somatic effects of carbon-14

On the basis of information about carbon-14 given by Libby, calculations are made of the predicted genetic and somatic effects of the carbon-14 produced by the testing of nuclear weapons. It is concluded that 1 year of testing (30 megatons of fission plus fusion) is expected to cause in the world (stimated future number of births per year 5 times the present number) an estimated total of about 55,000 children with gross physical or mental defects, 170,000 stillbirths and childhood deaths, and 425,000 embryonic and neonatal deaths. (There is an unknown amount of overlap of these three categories.) These numbers are about 17 times the numbers usually estimated as the probable effects of the fallout fission products from 1 year of testing. In addition, the somatic effects of bomb-test carbon-14 are expected to be about equal to those of fission products, including strontium-90, with respect to leukemia and bone cancer and greater than those of fission products with respect to diseases resulting from radiation damage to tissues other than bone tissue and bone marrow. All of the estimated numbers are subject to great uncertainty; they may be as much as 5 times too high or 5 times too low. The uncertainty in the estimation of the relative effects of carbon-14 and fission products in world-wide fallout is not so great.     

Tropical tropospheric ozone and biomass burning

New methods for retrieving tropospheric ozone column depth and absorbing aerosol (smoke and dust) from the Earth Probe-Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP/TOMS) are used to follow pollution and to determine interannual variability and trends. During intense fires over Indonesia (August to November 1997), ozone plumes, decoupled from the smoke below, extended as far as India. This ozone overlay a regional ozone increase triggered by atmospheric responses to the El Ni?o and Indian Ocean Dipole. Tropospheric ozone and smoke aerosol measurements from the Nimbus 7 TOMS instrument show El Ni?o signals but no tropospheric ozone trend in the 1980s. Offsets between smoke and ozone seasonal maxima point to multiple factors determining tropical tropospheric ozone variability.     

Kuwait oil fires: correction

In our article "Airborne studies of the smoke from the Kuwait oil fires" (15 May, p. 987) (1), we stated that the depletions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) and nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) in the smoke plume from the Kuwait oil fires were 50 and 60% per hour, respectively. These values were derived from measurements made aboard a Convair C-131 aircraft, and measurements of CO(2) were used as a conserved tracer. Subsequent comparisons of these measurements of CO(2) (which were obtained from a continuous analyzer) with independent measurements of CO(2) (obtained from "grab" samples) revealed that the continuous CO(2) measurements were occasionally contaminated by cabin air. Recalculation of the depletion rates of SO(2) and NO(x), with the use of uncontaminated measurements of CO(2) from the "grab" sampler aboard the aircraft yielded values of 6 and 22%, respectively (2). Our conclusions with regard to the climatic effects of the Kuwait oil fires are unchanged.     

Detecting climatic change signals: are there any "fingerprints"?

Projected changes in the Earth's climate can be driven from a combined set of forcing factors consisting of regionally heterogeneous anthropogenic and natural aerosols and land use changes, as well as global-scale influences from solar variability and transient increases in human-produced greenhouse gases. Thus, validation of climate model projections that are driven only by increases in greenhouse gases can be inconsistent when one attempts the validation by looking for a regional or time-evolving "fingerprint" of such projected changes in real climatic data. Until climate models are driven by time-evolving, combined, multiple, and heterogeneous forcing factors, the best global climatic change "fingerprint" will probably remain a many-decades average of hemi-spheric- to global-scale trends in surface air temperatures. Century-long global warming (or cooling) trends of 0.5 degrees C appear to have occurred infrequently over the past several thousand years-perhaps only once or twice a millennium, as proxy records suggest. This implies an 80 to 90 percent heuristic likelihood that the 20th-century 0.5 +/- 0.2 degrees C warming trend is not a wholly natural climatic fluctuation.     

The "little ice age": northern hemisphere average observations and model calculations

Numerical energy balance climate model calculations of the average surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere for the past 400 years are compared with a new reconstruction of the past climate. Forcing with volcanic dust produces the best simulation, whereas expressing the solar constant as a function of the envelope of the sunspot number gives very poor results.     

Mount st. Helens eruption of 18 may 1980: air waves and explosive yield

Strong atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves were recorded by sensitive microbarographs and seismographs at large distances from the Mount St. Helens eruption of 18 May 1980. Wave signatures were similar to those of waves from large nuclear explosions. Independent theoretical and empirical analyses indicate that the explosive yield of the eruption was approximately 35 megatons.     

Stratospheric ozone with added water vapor: influence of high-altitude aircraft

Simple, steady-state models for ozone photochemistry, radiative heat balance, and eddy-diffusive mass transport can be combined to estimate water-induced changes in the stratospheric ozone concentrations and temperatures, the integrated ozone column, the solar power transmitted to the earth's surface, and the surface temperature. These changes have been computed parametrically for mixing fractions of water vapor between 3 x 10(-6) and 6.5 x 10(-6). With added water from the exhausts of projected fleets of stratospheric aircraft, the ozone column may diminish by 3.8 percent, the transmitted solar power increase by 0.07 percent, and the surface temperature rise by 0.04 degrees K in the Northern Hemisphere. Due to a cancellation of terms, temperatures in the lower stratosphere remain essentially unchanged. These results are sensitive to the form of the water profile and emphasize the potential role of convective transients near 30 kilometers.     

Observed impact of snow cover on the heat balance and the rise of continental spring temperatures

Analysis of satellite-derived snow cover, radiative balance, and surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere extratropical land shows that the retreat of the Northern Hemisphere's extent of spring snow cover over the past 20 years parallels a change in the influence of snow cover on the radiative balance and an observed increase of spring temperatures over the same area. These results help explain why the long-term (20th century) increase in surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere land has been greater in spring than in any other season relative to the interannual variability.     

商丘地区太阳能资源分布和气候分析

根据商丘地区1965—2007年的逐日日照时数,通过日天文辐射总量、月太阳能辐射经验系数等公式,计算出商丘地区近43年来平均太阳总辐射量,分析了商丘地区太阳能资源的分布和特点,利用总辐射量、气温和天气状况等气候资料探讨了太阳能的利用可行性。研究发现,商丘地区太阳辐射量多,太阳能资源丰富,气温环境良好。因此,太阳能资源的利用具有很大的发展前途和空间。     

Precipitation Fluctuations over Northern Hemisphere Land Areas Since the Mid-19th Century

An extensive array of measurements extending back to the mid-19th century was used to investigate large-scale changes in precipitation over Northern Hemisphere land areas. Significant increases in mid-latitude precipitation and concurrent decreases in low-latitude precipitation have occurred over the last 30 to 40 years. Although these large-scale trends are consistent with general circulation model projections of precipitation changes associated with doubled concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, they should be viewed as defining large-scale natural climatic variability. Additional work to refine regional variations and address potential network inhomogeneitics is needed. This study attempts to show secular precipitation fluctuations over hemispheric and continental-scale areas of the Northern Hemisphere.     

A mid-brunhes climatic event: long-term changes in global atmosphere and ocean circulation

A long-term climatic change 4.0 x 10(5) to 3.0 x 10(5) years ago is recorded in deep-sea sediments of the Angola and Canary basins in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. In the Angola Basin (Southern Hemisphere) the climatic signal shows a transition to more humid ("interglacial") conditions in equatorial Africa, and in the Canary Basin (Northern Hemisphere) to more "glacial" oceanic conditions. This trend is confirmed by comparison with all well-documented marine and continental records from various latitudes available; in the Northern Hemisphere, in the Atlantic north of 20 degrees N, climate merged into more "glacial" conditions and in equatorial regions and in the Southern Hemisphere to more "interglacial" conditions. The data point to a more northern position of early Brunhes oceanic fronts and to an intensified atmosphere and ocean surface circulation in the Southern Hemisphere during that time, probably accompanied by a more zonal circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. The mid-Brunhes climatic change may have been forced by the orbital eccentricity cycle of 4.13 x 10(5) years.     

From dimming to brightening: decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth's surface

Variations in solar radiation incident at Earth's surface profoundly affect the human and terrestrial environment. A decline in solar radiation at land surfaces has become apparent in many observational records up to 1990, a phenomenon known as global dimming. Newly available surface observations from 1990 to the present, primarily from the Northern Hemisphere, show that the dimming did not persist into the 1990s. Instead, a widespread brightening has been observed since the late 1980s. This reversal is reconcilable with changes in cloudiness and atmospheric transmission and may substantially affect surface climate, the hydrological cycle, glaciers, and ecosystems.     

Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages

1) Three indices of global climate have been monitored in the record of the past 450,000 years in Southern Hemisphere ocean-floor sediments. 2) Over the frequency range 10(-4) to 10(-5) cycle per year, climatic variance of these records is concentrated in three discrete spectral peaks at periods of 23,000, 42,000, and approximately 100,000 years. These peaks correspond to the dominant periods of the earth's solar orbit, and contain respectively about 10, 25, and 50 percent of the climatic variance. 3) The 42,000-year climatic component has the same period as variations in the obliquity of the earth's axis and retains a constant phase relationship with it. 4) The 23,000-year portion of the variance displays the same periods (about 23,000 and 19,000 years) as the quasi-periodic precession index. 5) The dominant, 100,000-year climatic [See table in the PDF file] component has an average period close to, and is in phase with, orbital eccentricity. Unlike the correlations between climate and the higher-frequency orbital variations (which can be explained on the assumption that the climate system responds linearly to orbital forcing), an explanation of the correlation between climate and eccentricity probably requires an assumption of nonlinearity. 6) It is concluded that changes in the earth's orbital geometry are the fundamental cause of the succession of Quaternary ice ages. 7) A model of future climate based on the observed orbital-climate relationships, but ignoring anthropogenic effects, predicts that the long-term trend over the next sevem thousand years is toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation.     

Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate

It has recently been suggested that the solar irradiance has varied in phase with the 80- to 90-year period represented by the envelope of the 11-year sunspot cycle and that this variation is causing a significant part of the changes in the global temperature. This interpretation has been criticized for statistical reasons and because there are no observations that indicate significant changes in the solar irradiance. A set of data that supports the suggestion of a direct influence of solar activity on global climate is the variation of the solar cycle length. This record closely matches the long-term variations of the Northern Hemisphere land air temperature during the past 130 years.     

江西省森林火险气象卫星遥感监测的应用研究

森林火险对江西森林危害极大。根据江西省气候情况及森林分布状况。每年１０月至次年４月是江西省林火高发期。利用ＮＯＡＡ极轨卫星ＡＶＨＲＲ第三通道资料，结合地面森林分布状况及当时天气条件能有效地监测森林火灾，并通过ＡＶＨＲＲ３，４通道辐射温度的差异计算森林火灾面积。