Does the scale of our observational window affect our conclusions about correlations between endangered salmon populations and their habitat?

Differences in the strength of species-habitat relationships across scales provide insights into the mechanisms that drive these relationships and guidance for designing in situ monitoring programs, conservation efforts and mechanistic studies. The scale of our observation can also impact the strength of perceived relationships between animals and habitat conditions. We examined the relationship between geographic information system (GIS)-based landscape data and Endangered Species Act-listed anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations in three subbasins of the Columbia River basin, USA. We characterized the landscape data and ran our models at three spatial scales: local (stream reach), intermediate (6th field hydrologic units directly in contact with a given reach) and catchment (entire drainage basin). We addressed three questions about the effect of scale on relationships between salmon and GIS representations of landscape conditions: (1) at which scale does each predictor best correlate with salmon redd density, (2) at which scale is overall model fit maximized, and (3) how does a mixed-scale model compare with single scale models (mixed-scale meaning models that contain variables characterized at different spatial scales)? We developed mixed models to identify relationships between redd density and candidate explanatory variables at each of these spatial scales. Predictor variables had the strongest relationships with redd density when they were summarized over the catchment scale. Meanwhile strong models could be developed using landscape variables summarized at only the local scale. Model performance did not improve when we used suites of potential predictors summarized over multiple scales. Relationships between species abundance and land use or intrinsic habitat suitability detected at one scale cannot necessarily be extrapolated to other scales. Therefore, habitat restoration efforts should take place in the context of conditions found in the associated watershed or landscape.     

Multi-scale use of lands providing anthropogenic resources by American Crows in an urbanizing landscape

The conversion of forests and farmlands to human settlements has negative impacts on many native species, but also provides resources that some species are able to exploit. American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos), one such exploiter, create concern due to their impact as nest predators, disease hosts, and cultural harbingers of evil. We used various measures of crow abundance and resource use to determine crows’ response to features of anthropogenic landscapes in the Puget Sound region of the United States. We examined land cover and land use composition at three spatial scales: study sites (up to 208 ha), crow home ranges within sites (18.1 ha), and local land cover (400 m²). At the study site and within-site scales crow abundance was strongly correlated with land cover providing anthropogenic resources. In particular, crows were associated with the amount of ‘maintained forest’ cover, and were more likely to use grass and shrub cover than forest or bare soil cover. Although crows did not show a generalized response to an edge variable, they exhibited greater use of patchy habitat created by human settlements than of native forests. Radio-tagged territorial adults used resources within their home ranges relatively evenly, suggesting resource selection had occurred at a larger spatial scale. The land conversion pattern of new suburban and exurban settlements creates the mix of impervious surfaces and maintained vegetation that crows use, and in our study area crow populations are expected to continue to increase. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Multi-scale landscape and seascape patterns associated with marbled murrelet nesting areas on the U.S. west coast

Habitat for wide-ranging species should be addressed at multiple scales to fully understand factors that limit populations. The marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a threatened seabird, forages on the ocean and nests inland in large trees. We developed statistical relationships between murrelet use (occupancy and abundance) and habitat variables quantified across many spatial scales (statewide to local) and two time periods in California and southern Oregon, USA. We also addressed (1) if old-growth forest fragmentation was negatively associated with murrelet use, and (2) if some nesting areas are more important than others due to their proximity to high quality marine habitat. Most landscapes used for nesting were restricted to low elevation areas with frequent fog. Birds were most abundant in unfragmented old-growth forests located within a matrix of mature second-growth forest. Murrelets were less likely to occupy old-growth habitat if it was isolated (> 5 km) from other nesting murrelets. We found a time lag in response to fragmentation, where at least a few years were required before birds abandoned fragmented forests. Compared to landscapes with little tono murrelet use, landscapes with many murrelets were closer to the ocean's bays, river mouths, sandy shores, submarine canyons, and marine waters with consistently high primary productivity. Within local landscapes (≤ 800ha), inland factors limited bird abundance, but at the broadest landscape scale studied (3200 ha), proximity to marine habitat was most limiting. Management should focus on protecting or creating large, contiguous old-growth forest stands, especially in low-elevation areas near productive marine habitat. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cumulative effects of forestry on habitat use by gray wolf (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Canis lupus</Emphasis>) in the boreal forest

Forest harvesting involves the creation of roads and cutblocks, both of which can influence animal habitat use. We evaluated the cumulative effects of forestry on habitat selection by six packs of gray wolf (Canis lupus) widely distributed in Quebec’s boreal forest. Resource selection functions were used to evaluate cumulative effects at two levels. First, we studied how the response of wolves to roads and cutblocks varied within their home range (HR level) as a function of the local abundance of these habitat features. Second, we assessed whether differences in the response to roads and cutblocks observed among packs (inter-HR level) could be explained by variations in their average abundance among individual home ranges. At the HR level, we found that cumulative effects shaped habitat selection of wolves, and the nature of the effects varied during the year. For example, we detected a decrease in the selection of roads following an increase in local road density during the rendez-vous and the nomadic periods, but not during the denning period. At the inter-HR level, we found a functional response to logging activity only during the denning period. Packs with home ranges characterized by a larger proportion of recent cutblocks selected these cutblocks more strongly. We conclude that cumulative effects of logging activities occur at multiple levels, and these effects can have profound effects on habitat use by wolves, thereby influencing spatial predator–prey dynamics. Wildlife conservation and management in boreal ecosystems should thus account for cumulative impacts of anthropogenic features on animal distribution.     

Responses of Chilean forest birds to anthropogenic habitat fragmentation across spatial scales

Although it is recognized that anthropogenic forest fragmentation affects habitat use by organisms across multiple spatial scales, there is uncertainty about these effects. We used a hierarchical sampling design spanning three spatial scales of habitat variability (landscape > patch > within-patch) and generalized mixed-effect models to assess the scale-dependent responses of bird species to fragmentation in temperate forests of southern Chile. The abundances of nine of 20 bird species were affected by interactions across spatial scales. These interactions resulted in a limited effect of within-patch habitat structure on the abundance of birds in landscapes with low forest cover, suggesting that suitable local habitats, such as sites with dense understory cover or large trees, are underutilized or remain unused in highly fragmented landscapes. Habitat specialists and cavity-nesters, such as tree-trunk foragers and tapaculos, were most likely to exhibit interactions across spatial scales. Because providing additional sites with dense understory vegetation or large habitat trees does not compensate the negative effect of the loss of forest area on bird species, conservation strategies should ensure the retention of native forest patches in the mixed-use landscapes.     

A multi-scaled analysis of avian response to habitat amount and fragmentation in the Canadian dry mixed-grass prairie

Previous research has suggested that ducks and songbirds may benefit from prairie landscapes that consist primarily of contiguous grasslands. However, the relative importance of landscape-level vs. local characteristics on mechanisms underlying observed patterns is unclear. We measured effects of grassland amount and fragmentation on upland and wetland songbird and duck density and nest success, and on some nest predators, across 16 landscapes in southern Alberta, Canada. We compared these landscape-level effects with local-scale responses, including distance to various edges and vegetation characteristics. We also evaluated several statistical approaches to comparing effects of habitat characteristics at multiple spatial scales. Few species were influenced by grassland amount or fragmentation. In contrast, distance to edge and local vegetation characteristics had significant effects on densities and nest success of many species. Previous studies that reported effects of landscape characteristics may have detected patterns driven by local mechanisms. As a corollary, results were very sensitive to statistical model structure; landscape level effects were much less apparent when local characteristics were included in the models.     

Landscape context matters: local habitat and landscape effects on the abundance and patch occupancy of collared lizards in managed grasslands

The distribution and abundance of a species may be simultaneously influenced by both local-scale habitat features and the broader patch and landscape contexts in which these populations occur. Different factors may influence patch occupancy (presence–absence) versus local abundance (number of individuals within patches), and at different scales, and thus ideally both occupancy and abundance should be investigated, especially in studies that seek to understand the consequences of land management on species persistence. Our study evaluated the relative influences of variables associated with the local habitat patch, hillside (patch context), and landscape context on patch occupancy and abundance of the collared lizard (Crotaphytus collaris) within tallgrass prairie managed under different fire and grazing regimes in the northern Flint Hills of Kansas, USA. Using a multi-model information-theoretic approach that accounted for detection bias, we found that collared lizard abundance and occupancy was influenced by factors measured at both the local habitat and landscape scales. At a local scale, collared lizard abundance was greatest on large rock ledges that had lots of crevices, high vegetation complexity, and were located higher up on the hillslope. At the landscape scale, collared lizard abundance and occupancy were both higher in watersheds that were burned frequently (1–2 year intervals). Interestingly, grazing only had a significant effect on occupancy and abundance within less frequently burned (4-year burn interval) watersheds. Our results suggest that, in addition to the obvious habitat needs of this species (availability of suitable rock habitat), land-management practices have the potential to influence collared lizard presence and abundance in the grasslands of the Flint Hills. Thus, mapping the availability of suitable habitat is unlikely to be sufficient for evaluating species distributions and persistence in such cases without consideration of landscape management and disturbance history.     

The Importance of Spatial Scale for Conservation and Assessment of Anuran Populations in Coastal Wetlands of the Western Great Lakes,USA

Distributions of pond-breeding amphibians may be influenced by habitat factors at different spatial scales. We used anuran calling surveys to investigate the association between 5 anuran species and habitat variables measured within 100, 500, 1000, and 3000 m of sampling points at 63 coastal wetlands along the US shores of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. Stepwise logistic regression was used to create predictive models for each species at each spatial scale. Our results confirm the view that habitat variables at multiple scales influence frog distributions, but the strength of predictive models was significantly affected by the spatial scale at which habitat variables were derived. Remotely sensed habitat variables within a 3000 m radius were among the most effective predictors of occurrence for American toad (Bufo americanus), eastern gray treefrog (Hyla versicolor), spring peeper (Pseudacris crucifer), and green frog (Rana clamitans melanota). The western chorus frog (Pseudacris triseriata) was predicted most effectively by variables derived within a 500 m radius. For the most part, these anurans exhibited species-specific responses to habitat variables; however the suite of landscape-scale variables associated with urban land use appeared in all species’ regression models. Associations with landscape-scale variables coupled with well-documented habitat needs at local breeding sites suggest that conservation and assessment of frogs and toads in coastal wetlands should consider the influence of habitat variables at multiple spatial scales.     

Scaling Local Species-habitat Relations to the Larger Landscape with a Hierarchical Spatial Count Model

Much of what is known about avian species-habitat relations has been derived from studies of birds at local scales. It is entirely unclear whether the relations observed at these scales translate to the larger landscape in a predictable linear fashion. We derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundances for three forest bird species of eastern North America using bird counts, environmental variables, and hierarchical models applied at three spatial scales. Our purpose was to understand habitat associations at multiple spatial scales and create predictive abundance maps for purposes of conservation planning at a landscape scale given the constraint that the variables used in this exercise were derived from local-level studies. Our models indicated a substantial influence of landscape context for all species, many of which were counter to reported associations at finer spatial extents. We found land cover composition provided the greatest contribution to the relative explained variance in counts for all three species; spatial structure was second in importance. No single spatial scale dominated any model, indicating that these species are responding to factors at multiple spatial scales. For purposes of conservation planning, areas of predicted high abundance should be investigated to evaluate the conservation potential of the landscape in their general vicinity. In addition, the models and spatial patterns of abundance among species suggest locations where conservation actions may benefit more than one species.     

Spatial Patterns in European Rabbit Abundance After a Population Collapse

Assessing the associations between spatial patterns in population abundance and environmental heterogeneity is critical for understanding various population processes and for managing species and communities. This study evaluates responses in the abundance of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), an important prey for predators of conservation concern in Mediterranean ecosystems, to environmental heterogeneity at different spatial scales. Multi-scale habitat models of rabbit abundance in three areas of Doñana, south-western Spain, were developed using a spatially extensive dataset of faecal pellet counts as an abundance index. The best models included habitat variables at the three spatial scales examined: distance from lagoons (broad scale), mean landscape shrub coverage and interspersion of pastures (home-range scale), and shrub and pasture cover (microhabitat scale). These variables may well have been related to the availability of food and refuge for the species at the different scales. However, the models’ fit to data and their predictive accuracy for an independent sample varied among the study regions. Accurate predictions in some areas showed that the combination of variables at various spatial scales can provide a reliable method for assessing the abundance of ecologically complex species such as the European rabbit over large areas. On the other hand, the models failed to identify abundance patterns in a population that suffered the strongest demographic collapse after viral epidemics, underlining the difficulty of generalizing this approach. In the latter case, factors difficult to implement in static models such as disease history and prevalence, predator regulation and others may underlie the lack of association. Habitat models can provide useful guidelines for the management of landscape attributes relevant to rabbits and help improve the conservation of Mediterranean communities. However, other influential factors not obviously related to environmental heterogeneity should also be analyzed in more detail.     

Landscape effects on mallard habitat selection at multiple spatial scales during the non-breeding period

Previous studies that evaluated effects of landscape-scale habitat heterogeneity on migratory waterbird distributions were spatially limited and temporally restricted to one major life-history phase. However, effects of landscape-scale habitat heterogeneity on long-distance migratory waterbirds can be studied across the annual cycle using new technologies, including global positioning system satellite transmitters. We used Bayesian discrete choice models to examine the influence of local habitats and landscape composition on habitat selection by a generalist dabbling duck, the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), in the midcontinent of North America during the non-breeding period. Using a previously published empirical movement metric, we separated the non-breeding period into three seasons, including autumn migration, winter, and spring migration. We defined spatial scales based on movement patterns such that movements >0.25 and <30.00 km were classified as local scale and movements >30.00 km were classified as relocation scale. Habitat selection at the local scale was generally influenced by local and landscape-level variables across all seasons. Variables in top models at the local scale included proximities to cropland, emergent wetland, open water, and woody wetland. Similarly, variables associated with area of cropland, emergent wetland, open water, and woody wetland were also included at the local scale. At the relocation scale, mallards selected resource units based on more generalized variables, including proximity to wetlands and total wetland area. Our results emphasize the role of landscape composition in waterbird habitat selection and provide further support for local wetland landscapes to be considered functional units of waterbird conservation and management.     

Disentangling habitat and social drivers of nesting patterns in songbirds

Nest locations of breeding birds are often spatially clustered. This tendency to nest together has generally been related to a patchy distribution of nesting habitat in landscape studies, but behavioral studies of species with clustered breeding patterns draw attention to the importance of social and biotic factors. Indeed, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the breeding system of many territorial, migrant birds may be semi-colonial. The reasons for, and extent of, spatial clustering in their breeding systems are not well understood. Our goal was to tease apart the influence of habitat availability and social drivers of clustered breeding in a neotropical migrant species, the hooded warbler (Wilsonia citrina). To test alternative hypotheses related to clustered habitat or conspecific attraction, we combined a habitat classification based on remote sensing with point pattern analysis of nesting sites. Nest locations (n = 150, 1999–2004), collected in a 1213 ha forested area of Southern Ontario (Canada), were analyzed at multiple spatial scales. Ripley’s K and pair-correlation functions g (uni- and bivariate) were used to test whether nests were clustered merely because potential nesting habitat was also clustered, or whether nests were additionally clustered with respect to conspecifics. Nest locations tended to be significantly clustered at intermediate distances (particularly between 240 and 420 m). Nests were randomly distributed within available habitat at larger distance scales, up to 1500 m. A reasonable hypothesis to explain the detected additional clustering, and one that is consistent with the results of several behavioral studies, is that females pack their nests more tightly than the available habitat requires to be situated closer to their neighbors’ mates. Linking spatially explicit, point pattern analysis with strong inference based on Monte Carlo tests may bring us closer to understanding the generality and reasons behind conspecific attraction at different spatial scales. F. Csillag—deceased.     

A mathematical partitioning of the effects of habitat loss and habitat degradation on species abundance

Context

Worldwide, anthropogenic habitat loss and degradation have led to substantial biodiversity declines. Preserving biodiversity requires an understanding of how habitat loss and degradation interact to impact species populations, and how land-use decisions can limit these losses.

Objectives

We present a mathematical partitioning of changes in landscape-level population abundance in response to land-use change using a modified version of the Price equation from evolutionary biology.

Methods

The Price equation partitions changes in species abundance into multiple drivers related to habitat loss, habitat degradation, and their interaction. We describe its development and exemplify its applicability using simulated data.

Results

Applying the Price equation to simulated data reveals the roles of habitat loss, habitat degradation, and their interaction in driving population change in patchy landscapes undergoing complex land-use change processes.

Conclusions

The Price equation is a theoretical tool that may enhance our understanding of the effects of land-use change on populations by accounting for the specific processes by which land-use change operates across landscapes.

     

The influence of sampling scheme and interpolation method on the power to detect spatial effects of forest birds in Ontario (Canada)

Spatial ecology is becoming an increasingly important component of resource management, and the general monitoring of how human activities affect the distribution and abundance of wildlife. Yet most work on the reliability of sampling strategies is based on a non-spatial analysis of variance paradigm, and little work has been done assessing the power of alternative spatial methods for creating reliable maps of animal abundance. Such a map forms a critical response variable for multiple scale studies relating landscape structure to biotic function. The power to reconstruct patterns of distribution and abundance is influenced by sample placement strategy and density, the nature of spatial auto-correlation among points, and by the technique used to extrapolate points into an animal abundance map. Faced with uncertainty concerning the influence of these factors, we chose to first synthesize a model reference system of known properties and then evaluate the relative performance of alternative sampling and mapping procedures using it. We used published habitat associations of tree nesting boreal neo-tropical birds, a classified habitat map from the Manitou Lakes area of northwestern Ontario, and point count means and variances determined from field studies in boreal Canada to create 4 simulated models of avian abundance to function as reference maps. Four point sampling strategies were evaluated by 4 spatial mapping methods. We found mixed-cluster sampling to be an effective point sampling strategy, particularly when high habitat fragmentation was avoided by restricting samples to habitat patches >10 ha in size. We also found that of the 4 mapping methods, only stratified ordinary point kriging (OPK) was able to generate maps that reproduced an embedded landscape-scale spatial effect that reduced nesting bird abundance in areas of higher forest age-class fragmentation. Global OPK was effective only for detecting broader, regional-scale differences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Is bird incidence in Atlantic forest fragments influenced by landscape patterns at multiple scales?

The degree to which habitat fragmentation affects bird incidence is species specific and may depend on varying spatial scales. Selecting the correct scale of measurement is essential to appropriately assess the effects of habitat fragmentation on bird occurrence. Our objective was to determine which spatial scale of landscape measurement best describes the incidence of three bird species (Pyriglena leucoptera, Xiphorhynchus fuscus and Chiroxiphia caudata) in the fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest and test if multi-scalar models perform better than single-scalar ones. Bird incidence was assessed in 80 forest fragments. The surrounding landscape structure was described with four indices measured at four spatial scales (400-, 600-, 800- and 1,000-m buffers around the sample points). The explanatory power of each scale in predicting bird incidence was assessed using logistic regression, bootstrapped with 1,000 repetitions. The best results varied between species (1,000-m radius for P. leucoptera; 800-m for X. fuscus and 600-m for C. caudata), probably due to their distinct feeding habits and foraging strategies. Multi-scale models always resulted in better predictions than single-scale models, suggesting that different aspects of the landscape structure are related to different ecological processes influencing bird incidence. In particular, our results suggest that local extinction and (re)colonisation processes might simultaneously act at different scales. Thus, single-scale models may not be good enough to properly describe complex pattern–process relationships. Selecting variables at multiple ecologically relevant scales is a reasonable procedure to optimise the accuracy of species incidence models.     

The influence of thematic resolution on metric selection for biodiversity monitoring in agricultural landscapes

The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between landscape pattern metrics and agricultural biodiversity at the Temperate European scale, exploring the role of thematic resolution and a suite of biological and functional groups. Factor analyses to select landscape-level metrics were undertaken on 25 landscapes classified at four levels of thematic resolution. The landscapes were located within seven countries. The different resolutions were considered appropriate to taxonomic and functional group diversity. As class-level metrics are often better correlated to ecological response, the landscape-level metric subsets gained through exploratory analysis were additionally used to guide the selection of class-level metric subsets. Linear mixed models were then used to detect correlations between landscape- and class-level metrics and species richness values. Taxonomic groups with differing requirements (plants, birds, different arthropod groups) and also functional arthropod groups were examined. At the coarse scale of thematic resolution grain metrics (patch density, largest patch index) emerged as rough indicators for the different biological groups whilst at the fine scale a diversity metric (e.g. Simpson’s diversity index) was appropriate. The intermediate thematic resolution offered most promise for biodiversity monitoring. Metrics included largest patch index, edge density, nearest neighbour, the proximity index, circle and Simpson’s diversity index. We suggest two possible applications of these metrics in the context of biodiversity monitoring and the identification of biodiversity hot spots in European agricultural landscapes.     

Multi-scale site and landscape effects on the vulnerable superb parrot of south-eastern Australia during the breeding season

The threatened superb parrot of south-eastern Australia exemplifies many of the challenges associated with research on wide-raging organisms which live ‘off-reserve’. Challenges include that most land is privately owned and that landscape use by such organisms does not always conform to traditional schematic and categorical landscape/fragmentation models. A multi-scale approach for embedding the detection of site-level and landscape context effects into landscape sampling design and subsequent statistical analysis is presented. The superb parrot was found scattered at varying densities throughout the agricultural landscapes of the South-West Slopes, much of which was privately owned. It responded to site-level variables and the surrounding landscape context. Overall, the superb parrot favoured lower elevation sites which were dominated by scattered, open woodlands, where Blakely’s red gum was a significant component. Mean plant productivity within 2 km, levels of woody tree cover within 3 km and (with caveats) length of roads within 3 km had a major effect on site-level response, indicating conditions in the surrounding local landscape are important to the superb parrot. This multi-scale response requires a multi-scale conservation and restoration strategy. The importance of open tree cover and amounts of Blakely’s red gum are a matter for concern, due to a general lack of tree regeneration and the particular susceptibility of Blakely’s red gum to dieback. The scattered trees in the agricultural matrix were important to the superb parrot, suggesting that it views these landscapes as a continuum of usable habitat. Strategies for restoration of larger habitat remnants should also include regeneration of trees in scattered pattern in the wider landscape, and Blakely’s red gum should be part of any strategy along with other key species such as yellow and white box. The landscape sampling approach successfully addressed the challenges of whole-landscape research. This highlights the value of ‘off-reserve’ studies across whole landscapes.     

Effects of habitat loss on populations of white-footed mice: testing matrix model predictions with landscape-scale perturbation experiments

Habitat loss is the leading cause of decline in wildlife diversity and abundance throughout the world, but its effects on wildlife are not always predictable. Matrix population modeling is an increasingly common tool used to predict the effects of habitat loss. In spite of the growing number of studies using this approach, and its wide use in conservation practice, the predictions generated by matrix population models are rarely explicitly tested in the field. We compared the ability of a suite of spatially explicit demographic matrix models to predict the response of white-footed mice to loss of high quality habitat at mosaic sites in northeast Connecticut, USA. We tested short-term model predictions with landscape scale habitat perturbation experiments, including clear-cut logging or prescribed burning of high quality habitat at two study sites. Comparison of each model’s predictions with the observed responses at both sites qualitatively supported predictions that perturbation of high quality habitat would have negative effects extending into the surrounding landscape. The best-supported model assumed that evicted residents of the perturbed habitat would successfully resettle in nearby intact habitats, and allowed for gradual population recovery in the perturbed habitat. Similarly, long-term simulations (20 years) revealed how loss of a single habitat could trigger population declines throughout a mosaic site. This study shows that careful consideration of model assumptions such as those pertaining to resettlement behavior is crucial if predictions are to be reliable, and highlights the role of experiments for comparing alternative model predictions.     

Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Context

Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climate-induced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change.

Objectives

We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian abundance through changes in forest landscapes and assessed impacts on bird abundances of forest management strategies designed to mitigate climate change effects.

Methods

We coupled a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spatially explicit landscape simulation model (LANDIS PRO) to predict avian relative abundance. We considered multiple climate scenarios and forest management scenarios focused on carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change over 100 years.

Results

Management had a greater impact on avian abundance (almost 50% change under some scenarios) than climate (<3% change) and only early successional and coniferous forest showed significant change in percent cover across time. The northern bobwhite was the only species that changed in abundance due to climate-induced changes in vegetation. Northern bobwhite, prairie warbler, and blue-winged warbler generally increased in response to warming temperatures but prairie warbler exhibited a non-linear response and began to decline as summer maximum temperatures exceeded 36 °C at the end of the century.

Conclusion

Linking empirical models with process-based landscape change models can be an effective way to predict climate change and management impacts on wildlife, but time frames greater than 100 years may be required to see climate related effects. We suggest that future research carefully consider species-specific effects and interactions between management and climate.