水稻气候生产力对气候变暖的响应问题的模拟计算

模拟计算了未来2×CO_2气候情景下我国南方两种种植方式下(自动灌水和雨育),双季稻和单季稻气候生产力的变化,得出了在现有品种不变前提下水稻气候生产力普遍有所下降的结论.造成下降的主要原因依次为:生育期缩短、呼吸消耗加大和光合作用减弱,尤以双季稻更明显.考虑了大气中CO_2浓度提高对水稻光合作用的正效应,这种下降又有不同程度的减缓.     

关于《中国亚热带气候》的评介

<正> 最近,湖北教育出版社出版了乔盛西和唐文雅合著的《中国亚热带气候》一书,该书详尽地论述了中国亚热带气候的成因、特征、变化及其利用问题,并提供了在这方面研究的大量图表和资料.尤其难得的是作者对于某些气候和农业气象问题作了深入细致的研究,提出一些独到的见解.不妨举几个例子:(1)该书认为青藏高原的动力和热力作用是影响我国亚热带气候的主要因子之一.这些动力和热力作用使得冬季冷空气被迫(或被引导)沿高原东缘南下,使得冬季川黔多云、云南(中、西部)晴,形成长江中下游春季连阴雨,促使西南涡的形成(例如1981年7月四川省百年难遇的特大洪水的主要天气系统也是西南涡)和形成华西持久的秋雨等等.(2)在分析近年来两湖柑桔冻害时,提出西南涡的作用,使人有耳目一新之感.(3)双季稻是我国亚热带最具特色的耕作制度.该书     

气候变暖对我国农业生产的影响与对策

本文论述了温室效应引起全球气候变暖对我国作物生产、种植制度、区域性生产等方面的影响,指出我国农业生产面临三个突出问题:1.农业生产的不稳定性增大,粮食产量的波动增大,农产品的稳定供应将受到严重影响;2.打乱我国农业生产布局和结构,迫使农业生产发生大规模适应性调整;3.将改变农业生产条件(灌排设施、农机具和技术配套、化肥与农药用量、种子改良等),提高农业生产成本,大幅度增加农业投资,才能适应气候变化的影响.     

北京地区农田土壤水分变化的气候特征

水资源紧缺已成为我国广大农区所存在的严重问题之一.作为节水农业的系统研究之一,本文提供了北京地区小麦一玉米一年两熟耕作制度下农田土壤水分变化规律的背景知识.作者根据土壤水分平衡理论,建立了土壤一植物一大气连续系统巾水分动态变化的模拟计算方法,并首次将作物根系的动态变化纳入模型之内,从而使计算结果更加实际地反映了农田土壤水分变化特征和作物耗水规律特征等.此外,本文还对人工灌溉对土壤水分的影响进行了计算和讨论.     

陕西省户县气候生产潜力分析

利用户县1971-2000年逐年年平均日照时数、年平均气温、年平均降水量、年平均蒸发量资料,计算分析了户县的光合、光温、光温水生产潜力并提出了提高气候生产潜力的措施.结果表明:(1)户县在这30 a的时间里光合,光温生产潜力总体呈减小趋势,而光温水生产潜力总体趋势略升;(2)光合生产潜力7月最高,3-10月占年光合生产潜力的79.1%,是农作物生产的最重要时期;(3)户县历年各月光温水生产潜力等值线变化剧烈,农作物整个生育期中水因子制约作用超过了温度因子;(4)冬半年使用温室技术、夏半年增强作物水资源供给是户县气候生产潜力提高的有效措施.     

气候变暖对春小麦籽粒痕量元素利用率的影响

为了回答温度升高是否会改变痕量元素在士壤中的溶解性,以及作物对痕量元素的生物利用率,在人工气候室模拟未来气候变化温度升高背景下,对种植在不同温度处理的3种春小麦,测定了籽粒中Cd,Cu,Fe和Zn含量.结果发现温度升高引起了土壤中Cd,Cu,Fe和Zn溶解性的显著变化,也显著地影响小麦籽粒中Cd,Cu,Fe和Zn的生物利用率.最高升温3℃处理使西旱1号、2号和3号小麦籽粒中Cd浓度相比对照分别下降43.4％、11.1％和13.4％,Cu浓度相比对照处理分别下降了30.4％、25.1％和10.8％.但Fe和Zn的情况却不同,1℃和2℃升温处理使西旱1号籽粒中Zn浓度比对照处理分别增加了28.9％和35.8％.根据未来气候变化两北地区温度升高1.9℃,估计到2050年,小麦籽粒中的质量分数范围分别在Cd(0.59-0.65)、Cu(5.91-7.64)、Zn(63.73-69.41)和Fe(185.23-202.70) mg/kg.     

黄瓜花叶病毒猖獗与气候变暖关系及其对策

黄瓜花叶病毒(CMV)可经60多种蚜虫传播,侵染1000多种植物,近15年来其危害日渐严重,目前已成为我国发生最普遍、危害最严重的植物病毒。从生物学角度分析了黄瓜花叶病毒的发生猖獗与气候变暖的关系,并提出了依靠农业措施和生物防治手段进行病害控制的对策。     

现代人工气候室

人工气候室是用人工方法创造各种气候环境的一种设施.它是由美国著名物理学家温特发明的。自1949年6月在美国建成以来,人工气候室在现代科学技术各个领域中得到了广泛的应用.     

黄瓜花叶病毒猖獗与气候变暖关系及其对策

黄瓜花叶病毒（ＣＭＶ）可经６０多种蚜虫传播,侵染１０００多种植物,近１５年来其危害日渐严重,目前已成为我国发生最普遍、危害最严重的植物病毒。从生物学角度分析了黄瓜花叶病毒的发生猖獗与气候变暖的关系,并提出了依靠农业措施和生物防治手段进行病害控制的对策。     

1990-2011年天山东部冰川退缩对气候的响应

近年来全球气候变暖,我国山地冰川发生剧烈变化。针对天山东部地区冰川变化对天山山脉乃至我国西部地区冰川变化具有明显指示作用,利用1990年、2001年和2011年三个时段Landsat TM、ETM+遥感影像数据,运用比值阈值法结合目视解译分别提取了博格达山脉、巴里坤山脉和哈尔里克山脉的冰川边界,并在GIS技术支持下分析了该区冰川变化情况。研究表明:天山东部地区冰川面积整体退缩幅度较大,近21 a间冰川总体退缩了26.80%,其中博格达山脉、巴里坤山脉、哈尔里克山脉分别退缩33.58%,25.67%,16.08%。该地区冰川主要分布在西北、北和东北三个坡向,但东坡的冰川退缩速率最大为30.68%,研究区冰川面积主要分布在海拔为3 600~4 600 m处,而在3 300~3 400 m处的冰川退缩最快。研究认为气温上升、降水量小幅度上升甚至下降是引起天山东部地区冰川退缩的主要原因。此外,地形条件也是影响冰川退缩的重要因素。     

气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及对策

本文根据ＩＰＣＣ对全球未来气候变化的预测，结合我国地理─—气候分布和近百年不同区域气候变化趋势，将我国陆地分成九个区域，海面分成四个海域，分析了未来各区域气候变化的可能趋势。然后以１９８７年作为基准年，就未来气候变化对我国农业的可能影响作出了定量预测。预测的结果是：如果２０３０年左右全球ＣＯ＿２浓度倍增和我国平均气温上升１℃左右，全国种植业生产潜力将因气候变化而下降５％左右；畜牧业综合生产潜力可能下降７％左右；水产业生产潜力下降６％以上。有许多对抗性和适应性措施可以有助于消除全球变暖对农业的不良影响，但需要从现在起作出研究和工作的安排。     

The potential impacts of climate change on pasture and cattle production in Mongolia

The objective ofthis study was to assess the impact of climate change on plant and livestock production in several natural regions of Mongolia. The Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands model was used for the assessment of the climate impacts. Long-term (1961–1990) climatic data and biophysical and physiological parameters of pasture grassland and cattle were used in the study. The selection of simulation sites for the study was based on regions where there are many cattle. Climate change scenario data were obtained by combining historical weather data from each site with predicted output from general circulation models. Results from baseline runs were compared with four climate change scenarios and a scenario with baseline climate conditions and doubled carbon dioxide (2×CO₂). The impact of climate change on pasture production is estimated to be negative in the Gobi desert area and favorable in colder regions. Livestock intake and livestock weight are estimated to generally decline in late summer when digestibility is lower. Average daily weight gain of Mongolian steers that have only pasture forage is estimated to be lower, whereas it is estimated that there will be no negative effects on the weight gain of steer that are provided supplemental feed.     

The impacts of potential climate change and climate variability on simulated maize production in China

This study assessed the impacts of potential climate change on maize yields in China, using the CERES-Maize model under rainfed and irrigated conditions, based on 35 maize modeling sites in eastern China that characterize the main maize regions. The Chinese Weather Generator was developed to generate a long time series of daily climate data as baseline climate for 51 sites in China. Climate change scenarios were created from three equilibrium general circulation models: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, the high-resolution United Kingdom Meteorological Office model, and the Max Planck Institute model. At most sites, simulated yields of both rainfed and irrigated maize decreased under climate change scenarios, primarily because of increases in temperature, which shorten maize growth duration, particularly the grain-filling period. Decreases of simulated yields varied across the general circulation model scenarios. Simulated yields increased at only a few northern sites, probably because maize growth is currently temperature-limited at these relatively high latitudes. To analyze the possible impacts of climate variability on maize yield, we specified incremental changes to variabilities of temperature and precipitation and applied these changes to the general circulation model scenarios to create sensitivity scenarios. Arbitrary climate variability sensitivity tests were conducted at three sites in the North China Plain to test maize model responses to a range of changes (0%, +10%, and +20%) inthe monthly standard deviations of temperature and monthly variation coefficients of precipitation. The results from the three sites showed that incremental climate variability caused simulated yield decreases, and the decreases in rainfed yield were greater than those of irrigated yield.     

水稻格点作物模型在中国区域的不确定性评估

作物模型是评估气候变化对农业生产影响的主要手段之一,但中国对格点作物模型间的比较研究尚处于初始阶段。为全面评估不同作物模型在中国不同区域对水稻产量模拟的有效性,利用联合国粮农组织（FAO）和中国农业农村部种植业管理司（SYB）水稻年平均产量统计资料,对由2种气候资料（AgMERRA和WFDEI-GPCC）和 3种不同种植管理情景（Default、Fullharm和Harmnon情景）驱动的7种全球格点作物模型（CGMS-WOFOST、CLM-CROP、EPIC-BOKU、GEPIC、LPJML、PDSSAT和PEPIC模型）模拟的中国水稻产量进行了对比分析。结果表明：不同格点作物模型之间的模拟结果差异较大,在不同区域不同格点作物模型的模拟效果差异显著,不同格点作物模型对气候变化和种植管理情景的响应和敏感性不同,大部分模拟结果低估了水稻产量。使用不同水稻统计产量数据会对评估结果产生一定的影响。格点作物模型能够一定程度上模拟出水稻产量的年际变化和气候变化对产量的影响,但对于统计水稻产量上升的趋势较难模拟。通过综合分析产量在时间和空间上的波动情况,并利用2种评分方法对模拟表现打分,发现LPJML和PDSSAT在7种格点作物模型中模拟效果最好,同时也对不同气候数据和种植管理情景的变化最敏感,CLM-CROP的模拟效果最差。对不同种植管理情景,Default情景下的模拟效果显著高于Fullharm和Harmnon情景。多种格点作物模型集合平均（MME）可以降低单个格点作物模型模拟的误差,但需对MME中的集合模型进行挑选。     

适应二氧化碳肥效作用的农业技术潜力分析

从育种、耕作与栽培三个方面分析了适应CO2肥效作用的农业技术潜力措施.在育种方面,采用综合运用育种理论和育种技术培育新品种,改善作物生理和生态性状来适应大气中CO2含量升高;在耕作制度上,采用调整作物播期、改变当前多熟制边界、调整水作和旱作作物、C3作物和C4作物的播种面积和区域布局等措施;在栽培措施上,采用调节作物冠层温度、改善灌溉条件、保持土壤肥力和养分以及综合防治病虫草害和极端天气灾害等综合措施.扬长避短,兴利除弊,采取主动适应CO2肥效作用的策略,最大限度发挥作物产量潜力.     

Simulating site-specific impacts of climate change on soil erosion and surface hydrology in southern Loess Plateau of China

Proper spatial and temporal treatments of climate change scenarios projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) are critical to accurate assessment of climatic impacts on natural resources and ecosystems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the site-specific impacts of climate change on soil erosion and surface hydrology at the Changwu station of Shaanxi, China using a new spatiotemporal downscaling method. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model and climate change scenarios projected by the U.K. Hadley Centre's GCM (HadCM3) under the A2, B2, and GGa emissions scenarios were used in this study. The monthly precipitation and temperature projections were downloaded for the periods of 1900–1999 and 2010–2039 for the grid box containing the Changwu station. Univariate transfer functions were derived by matching probability distributions between station-measured and GCM-projected monthly precipitation and temperature for the 1950–1999 period. The derived functions were used to spatially downscale the GCM monthly projections of 2010–2039 in the grid box to the Changwu station. The downscaled monthly data were further disaggregated to daily weather series using a stochastic weather generator (CLIGEN). The HadCM3 projected that average annual precipitation during 2010–2039 would increase by 4 to 18% at Changwu and that frequency and intensity of large storms would also increase. Under the conventional tillage, simulated percent increases during 2010–2039, compared with the present climate, would be 49–112% for runoff and 31–167% for soil loss. However, simulated soil losses under the conservation tillage during 2010–2039 would be reduced by 39–51% compared with those under the conventional tillage in the present climate. The considerable reduction in soil loss in the conservation tillage indicates the importance of adopting conservation tillage in the region to control soil erosion under climate change.     

区域尺度作物生产力对全球变化响应的研究进展及展望

作物生产力对气候变化高度敏感,因而成为全球气候变化科学研究中的焦点问题之一。开发作物生产力的区域模型,与区域气候模式相耦合,有利于对作物生产力形成过程中的时间和空间变量进行分析,为针对各地不同的气候、土壤、作物与耕作管理条件制定适应性对策奠定基础。本文综述了作物生产力对CO2 增加和气候变化响应的研究方法,指出应用遥感、地理信息技术与作物模拟技术、高分辨率的区域气候变化模式相结合,研究区域尺度上的作物生产力及其气候变化响应是未来研究的热点和发展方向     

Implications of climate change scenarios for soil erosion potential in the USA

Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases May, result in global changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 40-100 years. Equilibrium climate scenarios from four GCMs run under doubled CO2 conditions were examined for their effect on the climatic potential for sheet and rill erosion in the conterminous USA. Changes in the mean annual rainfall factor (R) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were calculated for each cropland, pastureland and rangeland sample point in the 1987 National Resources Inventory. Projected annual precipitation changes were assumed to be from differences in either storm frequency or storm intensity. With all other USLE factors held constant these changes in R translated to changes in the sheet and rill erosion national average of +2 to +16 per cent in croplands, -2 to +10 per cent in pasturelands and -5 to +22 per cent in rangelands under the eight scenarios. Land with erosion rates above the soil loss tolerance (T) level and land classified as highly erodible (eredibility index >8) also increased slightly. the results varied from model to model, region to region and depended on the assumption of frequency versus intensity changes. These results show the range of sensitivity of soil erosion potential by water under projected climate change scenarios. However, actual changes in soil erosion could be mitigated by alterations in cropping patterns and other management practices, or possibly by increased crop growth and residue production under higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations.     

气候变化情景下海河流域水文循环变化模拟

Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition, under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.     

植物对高CO2和土壤干旱的响应趋势及对策

根据我国北方地区农业生态系统、沙地生态系统、草原生态系统以及长白山阔叶红松林生态系统中的优势植物种对高CO2浓度和土壤干旱的响应差异,预测了在CO2浓度增加和土壤干旱化趋势下不同优势植物的可能变化,并提出了应对这种变化可采取的措施。