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Is it possible to differentiate between environmental and fishery effects on abundance‐biomass variation? A case study of blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) in the Strait of Gibraltar |
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| Authors: | Juan Carlos Gutiérrez‐Estrada Juan Gil‐Herrera Inmaculada Pulido‐Calvo Ivone Alejandra Czerwinski |
| Affiliation: | 1. Dpto. de Ciencias Agroforestales, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería, Campus de la Rábida, Universidad de Huelva, Huelva, Spain;2. Dpto. de Recursos Pesqueros, Instituto Espa?ol de Oceanografía, Cádiz, Spain;3. Dpto. de Recursos Pesqueros y Acuícolas, Agencia de Gestión Agraria y Pesquera de Andalucía, Junta de Andalucía, Sevilla, Spain |
| Abstract: | We assessed the potential for simulation and modelling of the blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) population in the Strait of Gibraltar to discriminate the environmental effects of fishery impacts. A discrete biomass–abundance dynamic model was implemented to obtain a simulated monthly time series of blackspot seabream biomass. On this simulated time series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted. The best ARIMA fit provided a significant correlation of 0.76 and persistence index higher than 0.85. The proportion of variance non‐explained by the ARIMA models was correlated with a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The analysis of global, annual and winter correlation between the proportion of variance not explained by the ARIMA models and environmental variables showed that significant associations were not detected over the full time series. Our analysis therefore suggests that overexploitation is the main factor responsible for the commercial depletion of blackspot seabream in the Strait of Gibraltar. |
| Keywords: | autoregressive integrated moving average models biomass time series computational simulation North Atlantic Oscillation overexploitation sea surface temperature |
