| 高质量发展视域下中国林业系统生态承载力:解构、预测及评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱震锋,冯浩,何思炫,郑皓洋.高质量发展视域下中国林业系统生态承载力:解构、预测及评价[J].世界林业研究,2022,35(5):65-71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱震锋 冯浩 何思炫 郑皓洋 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.东北林业大学经济管理学院, 哈尔滨150040 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划年度项目“黑龙江省国有林区改革后续配套政策体系研究”（19GLC162）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“东北林区经济社会高质量发展问题研究”（2572022BM01） |
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| 摘 要： | 在我国持续践行高质量发展的宏观背景下，林业系统在自然资源供给、生态功能服务及生态安全保障等领域具有显著影响。文中提出林业系统生态承载力的概念，对其基本内涵进行理论解构，并辨析其与我国高质量发展之间的作用关系；基于2008—2018年统计数据，通过构建林业系统生态承载力综合测度模型、GM（0，1）灰色预测模型以及障碍度评价模型，进一步探究中国林业系统生态承载力水平及变动趋势，识别制约林业系统生态承载力提升的障碍因子，以期为不断优化林业系统内在协调性、增强林业系统生态支持潜力、促进林业系统自身及其与其他经济社会系统之间协同并进，继而有力支撑我国高质量发展实践提供有益启示。
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| 关 键 词： | 林业系统生态承载力 系统耦合 生态足迹 高质量发展 GM（0，1）模型 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-12-30 |
Ecological Carrying Capacity of Chinese Forestry from the Perspective of High-quality Development: Deconstruction,Prediction and Evaluation |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China2.School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China |
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| Abstract: | The forestry sector plays an important role in the resource supply, ecological services and environmental protection under the background of continuous practices of high-quality development in China. The paper proposes the concept of forestry system ecological carrying capacity, deconstructs theoretically its basic connotation, and analyzes the relationship between the concept and China’s high-quality development. With the statistical data from 2008 to 2018, we further explore the comprehensive level and change trend of China’s forestry ecological carrying capacity, and accurately identify the obstacles restricting the improvement of forestry ecological carrying capacity by constructing a comprehensive measurement model of forestry ecological carrying capacity, GM （0, 1） grey prediction model and obstacle evaluation model. The modeling is aimed at providing enlightenment for the continuous optimization of the forestry sector’s internal coordination, the enhancement of the ecological support potential of forestry sector, the development of forestry sector as well as the coordinated development of forest sector and other sectors, and the support for quality development. |
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