| 森林火险中长期预测预报研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵凤君,舒立福,田晓瑞,王明玉.森林火险中长期预测预报研究进展[J].世界林业研究,2007,20(2):55-59. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵凤君 舒立福 田晓瑞 王明玉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所, 北京 100091 |
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| 摘 要： | 概述了我国和美国、加拿大的森林火险中长期预测预报的理论和方法。国内研究大多建立在对历史火灾资料与气象资料进行统计分析研究的基础上, 预测结果多是定性的、间断性的。美国和加拿大则依托成熟的全国性森林火险等级系统, 结合气象局的中长期降水和温度预报, 给出各火险指数实时的一周尺度预报及每周1次的16周尺度的季节性预报。我国今后应加强森林火险的中长期预测预报研究, 要由单纯定性分析转向定量化研究, 由一般数理统计模型转向具有明显物理意义的数学物理模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 森林火险 中长期预测预报 理论和方法 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4241(2007)02-0055-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005/9/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-09-25 |
Progress in Mid-and-long Term Forest Fire Danger Forecasting |
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| Zhao Fengjun,Shu Lifu,Tian Xiaorui and Wang Mingyu.Progress in Mid-and-long Term Forest Fire Danger Forecasting[J].World Forestry Research,2007,20(2):55-59. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Fengjun Shu Lifu Tian Xiaorui and Wang Mingyu |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China2.Key Open Laboratory of Forest Protection, State Forestry Administration, Beijing 100091, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper summarized the theories and methods in mid-and-long term forest fire danger forecasting in China and other countries.Most studies in China were based on historical fire data and meteorologic data statistics.And the mid-and-long term forest fire danger forecasting was qualitative and discontinuous.However the forecasts studies in America and Canada were clung to National Fire Danger Rating System.With the mid-and-long term forecasting of precipitation and temperature announced by National Weather Service,all of fire danger indices were forecasted at 7-day scales everyday and these forecasting were extended to 16 weeks every weekend.In order to provide theory and method for the fire prevention,the studies on mid-and-long term forest fire danger forecasting should be improved in China.Simplex qualitative analysis should be shifted to qualitative studies,and general statistical models should be shifted to mathematics-physics models with clear physical meaning. |
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| Keywords: | forest fire danger mid-and-long term forecasting theory and method |
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