| 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响 Ⅰ.气候变暖对中国种植制度北界和粮食产量可能影响的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨晓光,刘志娟,陈阜.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响 Ⅰ.气候变暖对中国种植制度北界和粮食产量可能影响的分析[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(2):329-336. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨晓光 刘志娟 陈阜 |
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| 作者单位： | （中国农业大学资源与环境学院）; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】在全球气候变化背景下,中国气温自20世纪80年代明显升高已成为共识,这一变化对中国农业生产尤其是对种植制度的影响越来越受到中国政府和专家学者的重视。为了回答这一问题,笔者以1981年为时间节点,把从20世纪50年代至今分为2个时间段,分析和比较后一时段气候变暖对全国种植制度北界、冬小麦种植北界、双季稻种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界的可能影响,以及由于种植北界的空间位移对作物产量可能的影响。【方法】依据全国种植制度气候区划指标、冬小麦和双季稻种植北界指标以及雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界的降水量指标,采用公认的农业气候指标计算方法,使用ArcGIS分别绘出1950s—1980年、1981—2007年2个时段全国种植制度北界图,以及冬小麦种植北界图、双季稻种植北界图、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产的种植北界图。【结果】（1）与1950s—1980年相比,1981—2007年一年二熟制种植北界,空间位移变化最大的区域在陕西省、山西省、河北省、北京和辽宁省。一年三熟制种植北界,空间位移变化最大的区域为湖南省、湖北省、安徽省、江苏省和浙江省。在不考虑品种变化、社会经济等方面因素的前提下,这些区域由一年一熟变成一年二熟,主体种植模式的粮食单产平均可增加54%—106%,由一年二熟变成一年三熟,主体种植模式的粮食单产平均可增加27%—58%。（2）与1950s—1980年相比,1981—2007年辽宁省、河北省、山西省、陕西省、内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃省和青海省冬小麦的种植北界不同程度北移西扩。以河北省为例,冬小麦种植北界的北移,可使界限变化区域由春小麦改种冬小麦,单产平均增加约25%。（3）浙江省、安徽省、湖北省和湖南省双季稻的种植北界向北移动,单从热量资源的角度出发,可使其粮食单产不同程度增加。（4）雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产的种植北界大部分区域向东南方向移动,这是由于近年来该区降水量减少造成的。【结论】在过去的50年中,由于气候变暖造成了全国种植制度界限不同程度北移、冬小麦和双季稻种植北界北移,熟制的变化可能使种植制度界限变化区域的粮食单产增加。然而降水量的减少造成了雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产北界向东南方向移动。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变暖 种植制度北界 冬小麦种植北界 双季稻种植北界 作物产量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-08-19; |
The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅰ . The Possible Effects of Climate Warming on Northern Limits of Cropping Systems and Crop Yields in China |
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| YANG Xiao-guang,LIU Zhi-juan,CHEN Fu.The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅰ . The Possible Effects of Climate Warming on Northern Limits of Cropping Systems and Crop Yields in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(2):329-336. |
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| Authors: | YANG Xiao-guang LIU Zhi-juan CHEN Fu |
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| Affiliation: | (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University)
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| Abstract: | Objective] Increasing temperature in China significantly since the 1980s has become a consensus in the context of global climate change. How the change affected the agriculture or even the cropping system has attracted more and more attention of the government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the countrywide northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat - summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. And the possible changes of crop yield due to the changes of planting limits during the period from 1950s to 1981 and the period from 1981 to 2007 were compared and discussed. Method] A recognized calculation method of agro-meteorological indicators were used in the study. The countrywide northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation were draw by ArcGis for two periods from 1950s to 1980 and 1981 to 2007, according to the indices of the climate zoning index of cropping system, winter wheat and double rice northern limits and stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotaion. Result] Compared with the results during the period from 1950s to 1980, the northern limits of the two-cropping system from 1981 to 2007 occurred significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing and Liaoning provinces and city. The northern limits of the three-cropping system occurred largest spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Without the consideration for variety and social economic changing, grain yield per hectare of main cropping pattern could increase about 54%-106% if the one-cropping system changed to two-cropping system, while increase about 27%-58% if two-cropping system is changed to three-cropping. The northern limits of winter wheat moved northwards and westwards to different degrees in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu and Qinghai provinces, comparing with the results during the 1950s-1980 period. For example in Hebei province, northern limits of winter wheat moved north, leading to about 25% grain yield increase in the changing area if the cropping system is changed from spring wheat to winter wheat in one year. The northern limits of double rice cropping area in Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces moved northwards. Considering the heat resource, the change of limits can increase the grain yield. The stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize moved southeastwards in most regions, mainly caused by the decreased rainfall during recent years in the study areas. Conclusion] During the past 50 years, the climate warming caused the northwards movement of the northern limits of cropping system, and the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice. The changes may increase the unit grain yield in the changing area. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastwards due to the decreasing rainfall. |
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| Keywords: | climatic warming the northern limits of cropping system the northern limits of winter whea the northern limits of double rice crop yields |
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