| 未来烤烟种植对气候变化的响应与适应模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘华,张珍平,刘玉虹,陈艳英.未来烤烟种植对气候变化的响应与适应模拟[J].农学学报,2020,36(9):69-74. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘华 张珍平 刘玉虹 陈艳英 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆中烟工业有限责任公司,乌兰察布医学高等专科学校,河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室,重庆市气象科学研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划课题“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害对水资源与农业的影响”(2013CB430205)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了预测未来气候变化对烤烟产量的影响趋势，借助作物生长模型，结合《排放情景特别报告》（Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES）的两种排放情景A2(强调经济发展)和B2(强调可持续发展)预估的未来气候情景，定量地模拟分析了重庆地区烤烟种植对气候变化的响应与适应。结果表明，种植当前烤烟品种，到2020年，A2情景下，各地烤烟单产波动范围-4.7%~5.7%，增减产幅度不大。巫山、黔江、酉阳、南川等烤烟区仍以轻微增产为主，其余烤烟区为轻度减产区；B2情景下，各地烤烟单产波动范围-35.3%~8.1%，巫山、巫溪、黔江、南川大部等烤烟区以轻微增产为主，其余烤烟区为减产区，其中奉节、武隆烤烟区减产幅度较大，在15%以上。到2040年，A2情景下，各地烤烟区产量波动范围-15.85%~1.93%，除万州烟区轻微增产外，其余烤烟区均为减产区，其中酉阳中部、武隆南部减产幅度较大，在10%以上；B2情景下，各地烤烟区波动范围-14.45%~8.18%，其中，酉阳、彭水与黔江南部为增产区，其余地区烤烟均为减产区。无论是A2情景还是B2情景，重庆大部烤烟区可能会出现不同幅度的减产趋势，且局部减产幅度较大。如果引入适应气候变暖的新品种（模型中只延长烤烟生育后期即开花到顶叶成熟的积温），A2情景下增产105~170 kg/hm2，增幅6.9%~10.6%；B2情景下增产40~78 kg/hm2，增幅2.5%~5.12%。受气候变暖的影响，由于积温的增加，未来10年内重庆大部地区烤烟会出现不同程度的减产，局地减产严重。如果提前移栽期，通过一些适应对策，如引入适应气候变暖的新品种，可达到很好的增产效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 烤烟 影响 适应 模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/12/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/2/15 0:00:00 |
Simulation of the Response and Adaptation of Flue-cured Tobacco Planting to Climate Change |
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| Abstract: | The paper aims to forecast the impact of future climate change on the yields of tobacco. Based on the crop growth model, jointing the climate change scenario A2(concentration on the economic development) and B2 (concentration on the sustainable development)of SRES, the change trend of impact of future climate change on the yields of tobacco was studied. The results showed: the flue-cured tobacco yield would change among -4.7%-5.7% in 2020 under the A2 scenario with the current varieties planted, little increase and decrease. There would be a slight increase for flue-cured tobacco yield in Wushan, Qianjiang, Youyang, Nanchuan etc. and a slight decrease in the other regions. Under the B2 scenario, the flue-cured tobacco yield would change among -35.3%-8.1% in 2020. There would be a slight increase in tobacco growing areas of Wushan, Wuxi, Qianjiang, most parts of Nanchuan and so on. But the other regions would have a diminished output. Fengjie and Wulong would reduce above 15%. In 2040, the flue-cured tobacco yield would change among -15.85%-1.93% under the A2 scenario, except for a slight increase in Wanzhou tobacco growing areas, the rest areas would reduce. The central part of Youyang and southern Wulong would have a higher reduction rate over 10%. Under the B2 scenario, the flue-cured tobacco yield would change among -14.45%-8.18%. Youyang, Pengshui and southern Qianjiang would be increasing production areas. The rest areas would reduce. Whether A2 scenario or B2 scenario, most tobacco growing areas of Chongqing would show different reduction trend. Some areas would have a higher reduction rate. If new varieties which adapted to the climate warming were introduced in Chongqing (only prolonging the accumulated temperature of the late growth of flue-cured tobacco in the model, from flowering to parietal maturity), under the A2 scenario, the flue-cured tobacco yield would increase by 105-170 kg/hm2, 6.9%-10.6% increasing rate. Under the B2 scenario, the flue-cured tobacco yield would increase by 40-78 kg/hm2, 2.5%-5.12% increasing rate. Affected by the warming of the climate, rising accumulated temperature would lead to the reduction of flue-cured tobacco yield in Chongqing during the next 10 years. Some areas would have severe yield reduction. If the transplanting period was earlier or some adaptive measures such as introducing new varieties that adapted to climate warming was put to use, it could achieve a good effect of increasing production. |
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| Keywords: | climate change flue-cured tobacco impact adaptation simulation |
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