| 全球水稻生产时空变化特征及贸易趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚伟,佟越强,刘棋,臧华栋,杨亚东,戚志强,曾昭海.全球水稻生产时空变化特征及贸易趋势分析[J].南方农业学报,2022,53(6):1776-1784. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚伟 佟越强 刘棋 臧华栋 杨亚东 戚志强 曾昭海 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国农业大学农学院/农业农村部农作制度重点实验室, 北京 100193;2. 三亚中国农业大学研究院, 海南三亚 572025;3. 中国热带农业科学院热带作物品种资源研究所, 海南海口 571101 |
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| 基金项目： | 海南自然科学基金项目(320LH041)三亚崖州湾科技城管理局项目(SYND-2021-02) |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】对全球水稻主产区和主产国水稻生产及贸易的时空变化规律分析，可为我国水稻生产和粮食安全提供重要参考依据。【方法】基于FAO统计数据库，选取1961—2019年的水稻生产及进出口的数据，整理分析全球水稻生产的发展历程、产区分布、种植面积及进出口情况；并利用优势指数分析我国与其他水稻主产国在水稻生产上的差距。【结果】 1961—2019年全球水稻总产量和收获面积均逐年上升，亚洲始终是全球水稻生产和贸易中心，其中东亚、南亚和东南亚是亚洲水稻主产区，分别占全球水稻总产量的36.9%、29.8%和24.0%。尽管我国和印度的水稻总产量占全球的50%以上，但1980年以来我国水稻种植面积逐年下降，印度则逐年增加。与此同时，非洲水稻收获面积由1961年的277.7万ha逐年递增到2019年的1711.1万ha。全球水稻的进出口贸易量不断增加，2019年全球水稻贸易量比1961年增长近6倍，其中印度、泰国、越南和巴基斯坦是全球最大的水稻出口国，我国和部分非洲国家是全球水稻主要进口国，且进口需求急剧增加。我国由水稻净出口国变成了净进口国。【建议】平衡水稻种植面积，提升农田质量，实现耕地资源可持续利用；加大水稻生产的政策支持，保护农民种粮积极性；推进稻谷供给侧结构性改革，提高稻米质量，提升市场竞争力。
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| 关 键 词： | 水稻 生产 时空变化 国际贸易 粮食安全 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-11-20 |
Spatiotemporal change characteristics and trade trend of global rice production |
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| YAO Wei,TONG Yue-qiang,LIU Qi,ZANG Hua-dong,YANG Ya-dong,QI Zhi-qiang,ZENG Zhao-hai.Spatiotemporal change characteristics and trade trend of global rice production[J].Journal of Southern Agriculture,2022,53(6):1776-1784. |
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| Authors: | YAO Wei TONG Yue-qiang LIU Qi ZANG Hua-dong YANG Ya-dong QI Zhi-qiang ZENG Zhao-hai |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University/Key Laboratory of Farming System, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China;2. Sanya Institute of China Agricultural University, Sanya, Hainan 572025, China;3. Tropical Crops Genetic Resources Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou, Hainan 571101, China |
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| Abstract: | 【Objective】 To analyze spatiotemporal change of rice production and trade in the world’ s major rice producing areas and major producing countries，so as to provide an important reference for China’ s rice production and food security.【Method】 Based on the FAO statistical database，the data of world rice production，import and export from 1961 to 2019 was selected to analyze development history，production area distribution，planting area，import and export of global rice production.And advantage index was used to analyze the gap between China and other major rice producing countries in rice production.【Result】From 1961 to 2019，the global total rice yield and harvest area increased year by year but Asia had always been the global rice production and trade Center.Among them，East Asia，South Asia and Southeast Asia were the main rice producing areas in Asia，accounting for 36.9%，29.8% and 24.0% of the global total rice yield respectively.Although the total rice production in China and India accounted for more than 50% of the world，the rice planting area in China had decreased year by year in recent years since 1980，while that in India had increased year by year.At the same time，the rice harvest area in Africa increased year by year from 2.777 million ha in 1961 to 17.111 million ha in 2019.The import and export trade volume of global rice was increasing continuously.The global rice trade volume in 2019 was nearly 6 times higher than that in 1961.Among them，India，Thailand，Vietnam and Pakistan were the largest rice exporters in the world.China and some African countries were the main rice importers in the world，and the import demand had increased sharply.China had changed from a net exporter of rice to a net importer.【Suggestion】 Balance rice planting area，improve farmland quality and utilize cultivated land resources sustainably.Policy support for rice production shall be increase to protect farmers’enthusiasm for planting grains.Structural reforms on supply side shall be promoted to improve rice quality and market competitiveness. |
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