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重庆武隆高山甘蓝根肿病气象预测研究
引用本文:范莉.,李晶,唐余学..重庆武隆高山甘蓝根肿病气象预测研究[J].中国农学通报,2019,35(22):111-116.
作者姓名:范莉.  李晶  唐余学.
作者单位:1.重庆市气象科学研究所;2.重庆市气象台
基金项目::重庆市科委农业科技成果转化资金项目“高山蔬菜根肿病综合防控E技术示范推广”(cstc2014jcsf-nycgzhA80030);重庆市社会事业与民生 保障科技创新专项项目“基于服务定制的智慧农业气象移动app的研制与应用示范”(cstc2017shms-xdny80035)。
摘    要:根肿病是由芸薹根肿菌(Plasmodiophora brassicae Woron.)引起的一种世界性病害。任何十字花科植物的感病品种都会被该病菌侵染,在环境条件有利于病害发生时可导致作物产量和品质下降。为防御和减轻重庆地区高山甘蓝根肿病的发生,选择武隆高山甘蓝为研究对象,采用该区2010-2014年气象资料和高山甘蓝田间试验资料,分析气象因子与根肿病发病率的关系。筛选出对根肿病影响显著的气象因子为定植-成活期的累积雨量、定植后第12-14日的平均气温,采用回归方法建立甘蓝根肿病气象预测模型。利用2015-2016年试验资料对模型进行验证和试用,确定系数R2为0.68,说明该预测方法具有较好的客观性和适用性,可应用于重庆高山地区甘蓝根肿病发生的气象条件预测。气象防治和生物防治相结合,将为高山甘蓝根肿病的综合防治提供新的理论依据。

关 键 词:新疆  新疆  农作物  极端气候事件  灾情  
收稿时间:2018/6/5 0:00:00
修稿时间:2019/7/6 0:00:00

Meteorological Prediction of Cabbage Clubroot in Mountainous Areas of Wulong Chongqing
Abstract:Clubroot,caused by the soil-borne obligate biotroph Plasmodiophora brassicae Woronin, is one of the most serious diseases in the world. Any cruciferous of the susceptible varieties can be infected by the pathogen, and it greatly decreases the yields and quality of cruciferous crop under appropriate conditions. In order to prevent and reduce the occurrence of clubroot in mountainous areas of Chongqing, the cabbage of Wulong District was selected as the research object. The relationship between the meteorological factors and the incidence of clubroot was analyzed by using the meteorological data of 2010-2014 and the field examination data of mountain cabbage in this area. The accumulation precipitation at the transplanting survival period and the mean temperature at 12-14 days after planting were used to establish a meteorological prediction model for clubroot of cabbage. The regression model was verified and probed by 2015-2016 year examination data, the coefficient of determination R2 was 0.68. It proved that the prediction method has good objectivity and applicability. It can be applied to the forecast of meteorological conditions of the occurrence of cabbage clubroot in Chongqing mountainous areas. The combination of meteorological control and biological control will provide a new theoretical basis for the integrated control of clubroot in mountainous areas.
Keywords:Cabbage  Meteorological  prediction  regression  clubroot  Wulong
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