| 南京浦口夏季强降水特征及影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈其旭.南京浦口夏季强降水特征及影响因素[J].中国农学通报,2019,35(33):124-130. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈其旭 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京市浦口区气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局软科学研究项目“基层气象防灾减灾示范区建设研究”（[2014]M18 号）；浦口智慧气象防灾系统(PKZC—2015GK—L006)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用浦口1981—2017年夏季(5—9月)各类强降水资料,采用趋势分析、突变检验和周期分析等统计方法,从时间和量级两个方面对各类强降水特征展开分析,为防灾减灾和精细化预报预警提供支撑。研究结果表明,1)7月上、中旬是致灾性连续暴雨和大暴雨高发期,100～150mm的大暴雨发生频率最高,夏季暴雨量没有明显突变,但具有显著的6a周期；2)达暴雨预警级别强降水一般夜间开始,下午明显减弱,最强降水持续时间在12h左右,短时强降水易发生在中午前后和傍晚；3)有4成的预警信号和一半以上的大暴雨都发生在近10a,但小时最大雨量没有明显增强；4)39%的暴雨达到橙色预警标准,但红色仅有1次。地理位置和自然环境是浦口比南京主城区及周边强降水强度大的主要原因。
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| 关 键 词： | 溶解氧 溶解氧 粒子群算法 BP神经网络 优化 罗非鱼池塘养殖 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/6/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/8/9 0:00:00 |
Summer Strong Precipitation in Pukou, Nanjing: Characteristics and Influence Factors |
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| Abstract: | The paper aims to provide support for the agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and for the fine forecast and early warning. Based on the data of diverse strong precipitation in summer (May to September) in Pukou during 1981-2017, we analyzed the characteristics of strong precipitation from time and amounts by adopting the methods of trend analysis, mutation test and the periodic analysis. The results showed that: (1) early and mid of July were peak period of continuous rainstorm and heavy rainstorm, the frequency of heavy rainstorm with 100- 150 mm was the highest and the heavy rainstorm had no obvious mutation in summer, but a remarkable 6-year cycle; (2) strong precipitation which reached the level of rainstorm earlywarning often started at the midnight and obviously became weakened in the afternoon; the strong precipitation duration was about 12 hours; the short-time precipitation always happened around the afternoon or in the dusk; (3) 40% of the warning signals and over half of the strong precipitation happened in 2008-2017, however, there was no obvious increase of the maximum precipitation per hour; (4) 39% of the strong precipitation reached the level of orange early- warning, but only one reached red early- warning. The main causes that the strong precipitation intensity in Pukou is stronger than that in urban Nanjing are the location and the natural environment. |
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| Keywords: | strong precipitation trend of change periodic analysis influence factor Agricultural disaster prevention and reduction |
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