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广东省旱涝灾害时空变化特征研究
引用本文:刘永林,延军平.广东省旱涝灾害时空变化特征研究[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(2):263-268.
作者姓名:刘永林  延军平
作者单位:陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安,710062
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构、机理与适应对策”(41171090)
摘    要:目的]研究广东省旱涝灾害时空变化特征,并对广东省1960—2012年旱涝等级进行划分。方法]应用小波分析、马可尔夫链、Mann—Kendall突变检验、经验正交函数以及克里金空间插值法等方法。结果](1)在时间上,广东省年降水量呈上升趋势,存在28,13和6a的时间尺度上的震荡周期;(2)广东省旱涝灾害发生频率及未来几年旱涝状态与气温变化有良好的响应关系。(3)在空间上,粤东地区和粤西地区以涝灾为主,而广宁—广州—台山地区一带以旱灾为主。结论]广东省旱涝灾害与气温变化存在一定的响应关系,气温突变后旱涝灾害增多。

关 键 词:旱涝灾害  Z指数  小波分析  马尔可夫链  经验正交函数  广东省
收稿时间:3/3/2014 12:00:00 AM
修稿时间:2014/3/30 0:00:00

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Drought and Flood Disasters in Guangdong Province
LIU Yonglin and YAN Junping.Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Drought and Flood Disasters in Guangdong Province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,35(2):263-268.
Authors:LIU Yonglin and YAN Junping
Affiliation:LIU Yonglin;YAN Junping;College of Tourism and Environmental,Shaanxi Normal University;
Abstract:Objective] To analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of drought/flood disasters and to divide drought/flood grade of Guangdong Province from 1960 to 2012.Methods] Wavelet analysis, Markov chain, Mann-Kendall mutation test, empirical orthogonal function and Kringing method were used.Results] (1) As for temporal variation, the average annual rainfall of Guangdong Province is on the rise with 28 a, 13 a and 6 a time scale oscillation cycles; (2) Frequency of drought/flood disasters and the situation of drought/flood in the next few years have good responsive association with temperature changes. (3) As for spatial variations, the east and the west zones of Guangdong Province are likely undergoing flooding, while, Guangning-Guangzhou-Taishan region is easily being attacked by drought.Conclusion] The drought/flood disasters increase after abrupt change of temperature, and there is a certain responsive relationship between drought/flood disasters and temperature changes.
Keywords:drought and flood disasters  Z index  wavelet analysis  Markov chain  empirical orthogonal function  Guangdong Province
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