首页 | 官方网站   微博 | 高级检索  
     

基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断
引用本文:雷勋平,Robin Qiu,刘勇.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(13):243-253.
作者姓名:雷勋平  Robin Qiu  刘勇
作者单位:1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016;铜陵学院工商管理学院,铜陵244000;2. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016;宾夕法尼亚州立大学信息科学系,宾夕法尼亚州马尔委19355;3. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京,210016
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助(71503103);国家社科基金资助(11BJY116);安徽省教育厅高校人文社科重大项目资助(SK2014ZD050)
摘    要:定量评估土地利用绩效并诊断其障碍因子,是提高区域土地利用绩效水平的有效途径。该文综合考虑土地利用经济绩效、社会绩效、生态绩效和管理绩效4个子系统,建立区域土地利用绩效评价指标体系,结合熵权TOPSIS模型和障碍度模型,对安徽省近15 a(2000—2014年)的土地利用情况进行绩效评价和障碍因子诊断,并基于评价结果,运用GM(1,1)模型对安徽省未来5 a(2015—2019年)土地利用子系统绩效变化态势进行预测和分析。结果表明:安徽省土地利用综合绩效经历了较差—中级—良好—优质的发展过程,结合土地利用绩效的年均增长速度,可以分为绩效较差但高速增长(2000—2004年)、绩效中级但较快增长(2005—2009年)、绩效良好但低速增长(2010—2011年)和绩效优质且快速增长(2008—2014年)4个发展阶段。4个子系统绩效水平基本逐年提升,但变化趋势存在差异,经济绩效和管理绩效呈线性增长态势,社会绩效和生态绩效呈波动起伏变化的上升趋势;未来5 a,经济绩效子系统年均增长速度最快,社会绩效和管理绩效子系统次之,生态绩效子系统增速最慢。经济绩效子系统障碍度最大,其后依次是社会、生态和管理绩效子系统;2000—2008年,建成区工业增加值等3个指标一直稳居前3位,人民生活水平和地均就业人数轮流出现在第4或第5位;2009—2012年,前3位障碍因子发生较大变化,地均财政收入和人民生活水平成为阻碍土地利用绩效的主要因子;2013—2014年,前5位障碍因子变化较大,社会绩效成为制约土地利用绩效的主要子系统,改善人民生活水平、加强公共基础设施建设,探索节约化、集约化、高效化的土地利用方式和模式是提升安徽省土地利用绩效的重要出路;根据GM(1,1)模型预测结果,社会绩效、生态绩效和管理绩效在未来具有广阔的提升空间,安徽省在提高土地利用经济绩效的同时,应关注经济—社会—生态环境友好和谐发展,更加注重土地利用社会绩效、管理绩效特别是生态绩效的提升。该文的研究思路与方法可以为促进区域土地利用绩效提升提供现实依据。

关 键 词:土地利用    模型  绩效评价  障碍度
收稿时间:2015/9/27 0:00:00
修稿时间:2016/4/26 0:00:00

Evaluation of regional land use performance based on entropy TOPSIS model and diagnosis of its obstacle factors
Lei Xunping,Robin Qiu and Liu Yong.Evaluation of regional land use performance based on entropy TOPSIS model and diagnosis of its obstacle factors[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(13):243-253.
Authors:Lei Xunping  Robin Qiu and Liu Yong
Affiliation:School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of A eronautics and A stronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;School of Business A dministration, Tongling University, Tongling 244000, China,School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of A eronautics and A stronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;Department of Information Science, Pennsylvania State University, Malvem PA 19355, USA and School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of A eronautics and A stronautics, Nanjing 210016, China
Abstract:Quantitatively evaluating land use performance and diagnosing its obstacle factor are an effective way to improve regional land use performance level.Through the comprehensive consideration on 4 subsystems:economic, social, ecological and management performance, an evaluation index system of regional land use performance was established.In the part of empirical research, firstly, the performance evaluation of Anhui Province land use in recent 15 years (2000-2014) was carried out through applying the entropy weight TOPSIS model, and the performances were classified into 4 grades based on close degree, which included low, medium, good and superior grade; secondly, the obstacle factor of Anhui land use performance was diagnosed through applying the obstacle degree model; at last, according to the performance evaluation result, subsystem and comprehensive performance change trend of Anhui Province land use in future 5 years (2015-2019) were predicted and analyzed by using GM (1,1) model.The research results showed that:1) The comprehensive performance of Anhui Province land use experienced such development process from low performance, medium, good to superior, and combined with the average annual growth rate of land use performance, the development process could be divided into 4 stages, i.e.low performance but high speed growth (2000-2004), medium performance but fast growth (2005-2009), good performance but slow growth (2010-2011) and superior performance and faster growth (2012-2014); 2) Four subsystem performance levels were basically improved year by year, but their change trends were different, economic and management performance presented linear increase trend, but social and ecological performance presented fluctuating upward trend; and in future 5 years, the annual growth rate of economic subsystem performance would be the fastest, social and management performance would be second, and ecological performance be the lowest; 3) The obstacle degree of economic performance was the maximum, followed by social, ecological and management performance.In 2000-2008,3 indicators including industrial growth value in builtup area were the top three all the time, and people living standard and employment number per square kilometer occupied No.4 or No.5; in 2009-2012, the first 3 obstacle factors greatly changed, and fiscal revenue per square kilometer and people living standard became the major obstacle factors of land use performance; in 2013-2014, the top 5 obstacle factors had a great change, and social performance became the major subsystem of restricting land use performance.Improving people living standard, strengthening public infrastructure construction and exploring economical, intensive and efficient land use mode would be an important way to enhance land use performance of Anhui Province; according to the prediction results of GM (1,1) model, social performance, ecological performance and management performance would have a huge promotion development space in the future.Anhui Province government should enhance land use economic performance and focus on the benignant and harmonious development among economic, society and environment aspects at the same time, and pay more attention to enhancing social performance, management performance, and especially ecological performance of land use.The research ideas and methods of the paper provide realistic basis for promoting regional land use performance.
Keywords:land use  entropy  models  performance evaluation  obstacle degree
本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《农业工程学报》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《农业工程学报》下载全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司    京ICP备09084417号-23

京公网安备 11010802026262号