| 农业保险能保障农民收入吗?——基于情景依赖下的保险失效与有效研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 高康,何蒲明.农业保险能保障农民收入吗?——基于情景依赖下的保险失效与有效研究[J].浙江农业学报,2022,34(10):2296. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高康 何蒲明 |
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| 作者单位： | 长江大学 湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北 荆州 434023 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金(17BGL250) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于2006—2018年省级面板数据,利用固定效应模型与门限模型探究农业灾害冲击下农业保险对农民收入的保障效果。结果显示:农业灾害冲击下,农业保险对农民经营收入保障有效,但对总收入保障失效,原因在于传统规避风险工具替代了农业保险对总收入的保障效用。农业保险对总收入的保障是否有效,依赖于地区农业经营程度与非农就业条件。提升农业保险发展水平相比保险规模对保障农民收入的效果更好,但其门限效应跨度高达9.7倍,难度更大。边际预测结果在验证上述结论的同时显示,在农业保险发展的较高阶段,农业保险对收入有产生正向影响的趋势,但依然不具备宏观增收效应。因此,应从厘清农业保险政策目标、因地制宜优化保险推广与探索多元规避风险路径等方面完善我国农业保险的精准保障效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业保险 农民收入 风险保障 调节效应 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-08-18 |
Can agricultural insurance guarantee farmer’s income: study on insurance failure and effectiveness based on situational dependence |
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| GAO Kang,HE Puming.Can agricultural insurance guarantee farmer’s income: study on insurance failure and effectiveness based on situational dependence[J].Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,2022,34(10):2296. |
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| Authors: | GAO Kang HE Puming |
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| Affiliation: | Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434023, Hubei, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2018, the fixed effect model and threshold model were used to explore the effect of agricultural insurance on farmer’s income under disaster impact. It was shown that, under the impact of disasters, agricultural insurance was effective for the guarantee of farmer’s operation revenue, but ineffective for the guarantee of total income. The reason lay in the substitution of traditional risk-averse tools of agricultural insurance on farmer’s total income. The effectiveness of agricultural insurance on farmer’s total income was dependent on the degree of agricultural operation and the conditions of non-agricultural employment. The development level of agricultural insurance could better guarantee farmer’s income than the scale of agricultural insurance, but the threshold effect span was as high as 9.7 times. Marginal prediction results validated the above conclusion, and also showed that in the higher development stage, agricultural insurance might have a positive impact on farmer’s income, but there would not be a macro income increase effect. Therefore, measures should be taken to improve the precision guarantee effect of agricultural insurance in China by clarifying the objective of agricultural insurance policy, optimizing the insurance promotion according to local conditions, and exploring multiple risk avoidance paths. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural insurance farmer’s income risk assurance moderating effects |
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