| 张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,何勇.未来气候变化情景下我国主要粮食作物产量变化模拟[J].干旱地区农业研究,2007,(5):208~213 |
| 未来气候变化情景下我国主要粮食作物产量变化模拟 |
| Simulation of the yields change of China’main crops under climate change scenario |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2007.05.41 |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 作物模型 产量 模拟 |
| 英文关键词:climate change crop model yield simulation |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD04B09) |
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| 摘要点击次数: 114 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 采用气候模式BCC-T63与作物模式WOFOST相结合的研究方法,在多年试验数据和模型适宜性验证的基础上,模拟分析了未来100 a(2000~2100年)气候变化情景下我国主要粮食作物发育和产量变化趋势。主要的粮食作物选取东北区域的玉米、华北区域的冬小麦和南方区域的双季稻。东北区域为东经120°~135°,北纬40°~50°,主要以黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省区为研究对象;华北区域为东经111°~123°,北纬35°~41°,主要包括京、晋、冀和鲁等地;南方区域为东经109°~120°,北纬25°~30°,主要包括湖南、湖北以及江西等地。结果表明:东北地区玉米生育期会缩短,其中,中熟玉米平均缩短3.8 d,晚熟玉米平均缩短1.4 d,产量也会相应地下降,中熟玉米平均减产3.3%,晚熟玉米平均减产2.7%;华北地区冬小麦的生育期平均缩短8.4 d;产量平均减产10.1%;南方早稻生育期平均缩短4.9 d,晚稻生育期平均缩短4.4 d,早稻的产量变化范围为1.9%~9.5%,平均减产3.6%,晚稻的产量变化范围为2.2%~7.3%,平均减产2.8%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Using the method of climate model BCC-T63 jointly with crop model WOFOST,and based on the experiment data of many years and suitability test,simulation and analysis were carried out about the change of the growth and yield of the main crops in China under climate change.The main crops included maize in Northeast China,winter wheat in North China,and double-season rice in South China.The Northeast region lies from 120 to 135 degrees east longitude from 40 to 50 degrees north latitude,mainly including three provinces: Helongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning;The North China is situated from 111 to 123 degrees east longitude and from 35 to 41 degrees north latitude,mainly including Jing,Jin,Ji and Lu area;The South China is located from 109 to 120 degrees east longitude and from 25 to 30 degrees north latitude,mainly including the provinces of Hunan,Hubei and Jiangxi.The results showed: the life time of maize in Northeast China will be shortened,the lifetime of medium maize will be shortened by 3.8 days,that of the late maize will be shortened by 1.4 days,the yields of maize also will be decreased to a different extent,medium maize will be reduced by 3.3 percent,late maize reduced by 2.7 percent;The life time of winter wheat in North China will be shortened by 8.4 days,and the yields of winter wheat also will be decreased by 10.1% to a different extent;The lifetime of early rice in South China will be shortened by 4.9 days,that of late rice will be shortened 4.4 days,the change range of early rice from 1.9 to 9.5 percent,meanly reduced by 3.6 percent,and the change range of late rice from 2.2 to-7.3 percent,meanly reduced by 2.8 percent. |
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