利用气候因子对Fox模型计算东海总经济鱼类CPUE的优化
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1. 上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院, 上海 201306;2. 中国水产科学研究院 资源与环境研究中心, 北京 100141

作者简介:

王继隆(1984–), 男, 硕士研究生, 从事渔业资源方面的研究. E-mail: wjl0321225@163.com

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国家863计划项目(2009AA09Z401); 农业部财政项目(2130117-01001).


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    摘要:

    1951–1984海表温度单位捕捞努力渔获量, SST准则判断a2

    Abstract:

    Climatic factor is one of the important causes impacting marine fish biomass. The data of total yield and fishing effort of East China Sea and four climatic factors which were sea surface temperature (SST), monsoon, typhoon and runoff from 1951 to1984 were added to Fox surplus yield model to optimize catch per unit effort (CPUE). Climatic factors and parameter were analyzed by linear and exponential regression model with stepwise method respectively. The results showed that SST and summer monsoon were selected as the new parameters to modify parameter . Finally, the linear regression model was recognized as the most optimized model by AIC analysis. In the linear regression model, the coefficient of regression ( values of coefficients were below 0.01, and zero was out of the 95% confidence interval for all coefficients. The simulation effect of the optimized model is much better than original model, which suggests that SST and summer monsoon significantly impact commercial fishes in East China Sea, and it’s very necessary to consider the influence of climatic factors when doing Fox surplus yield assessment.

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引用本文

王继隆,李继龙,杨文波,李思亮.利用气候因子对Fox模型计算东海总经济鱼类CPUE的优化[J].中国水产科学,2011,18(1):136-144
.[J]. Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2011,18(1):136-144

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  • 在线发布日期: 2011-01-14
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