基于BP神经网络的西北太平洋柔鱼资源丰度预测
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S932.8

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国家重点研发计划(2019YFD0901404);上海市科技创新行动计划(19DZ1207502);上海市“浦江人才”计划(19PJ1404300)


Prediction of the CPUE of neon flying squid in the northwest Pacific Ocean based on back propagation neural network
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    摘要:

    基于监督式学习算法的BP神经网络模型,综合多源卫星遥感观测获取得到的海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、叶绿素a质量浓度(chlorophyll-a mass concentration,Chl.a)、海表面高度距平值(sea surface height anomaly,SSHA)、海水质量变化和地转流等海洋环境因子,对西北太平洋柔鱼资源丰度的时空分布进行模拟和预测。以上海海洋大学中国远洋渔业数据中心2004—2017年的西北太平洋海域的柔鱼历史渔业捕捞数据为参考值,对基于多源卫星遥感观测的多海洋环境因子的柔鱼资源丰度的模拟和预测结果进行精度评定。结果表明:与仅采用SST、Chl.a和SSHA等进行柔鱼资源丰度时空分布预测的传统方案相比,进一步加入海水质量变化和地转流后,可有效提高利用BP神经网络对西北太平洋柔鱼资源丰度进行模拟和预测的精度:改进方法模拟的标准差(standard deviation,STD)和均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)均减少了22%,且预测的STD减少了31%,RMSE减少了26%。

    Abstract:

    By incorporating the sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a mass concentration (Chl.a), sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), ocean mass and geostrophic current from multi-source remote sensing observations, this paper models and predicts the temporal-spatial distributions of the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of O. bartramii in the northwest Pacific Ocean with the supervised learning algorithm-based back propagation (BP) neural network model. The multi-source remote sensing data were used to build the BP neural network model, and the accuracy of the model-simulated and -predicted O. bartramii CPUE was then evaluated with the historical fishery data during 2004 to 2017 in the northwest Pacific Ocean from the Chinese Squid-Jigging Technology Group of Shanghai Ocean University. Compared with the traditional scheme of predicting the spatial-temporal distributions of O. bartramii CPUE with SST, Chl.a and SSHA only, the accuracy of model-simulated and -predicted CPUE can be further improved after incorporating the ocean mass and geostrophic current into the BP neural network model.Specifically, the standard deviation (STD) and root mean square error (RMSE) of model-simulated O. bartramii CPUE both increased by 22%, and STD of model-predicted O. bartramii CPUE increased by 31% and RMSE decreased by 26%.

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常亮,陈芳霖,陈新军,余为,冯贵平,李阳东,曾为.基于BP神经网络的西北太平洋柔鱼资源丰度预测[J].上海海洋大学学报,2022,31(2):524-533.
CHANG Liang, CHEN Fanglin, CHEN Xinjun, YU Wei, FENG Guiping, LI Yangdong, ZENG Wei. Prediction of the CPUE of neon flying squid in the northwest Pacific Ocean based on back propagation neural network[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2022,31(2):524-533.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-07-19
  • 最后修改日期:2021-11-29
  • 录用日期:2021-12-10
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-03-29
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