Abstract:Based on revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and GIS technique, this research analyzed the spatial distribution of soil erosion in 1980, 2000, and 2010, and its dynamic evolution in Anhui Province, and predicted soil erosion change over the next 30 years based on Markov model. Furthermore, this paper explored relationships of spatial change of soil erosion intensity with elevation and slope based on spatial analysis of GIS. The results showed: 1) soil erosion of Anhui Province obviously improved from 1980 to 2010, and mean soil erosive modulus decreased from 461.09 t/(km2 a) to 245.26 t/(km2 a), the amount of soil erosion decreased from 6 199.92 × 104 t/a to 3 297.84 × 104 t/a. Slight soil erosion areas increased by 8 188.65 km2, and intensive soil erosion areas reduced by 1 576.93 km2. 2) Spatially, soil erosion strengthened from north to south in three periods. Slight soil erosion mainly distributed in Huaibei Plain and Jianghuai Hilly Region, while intensive soil erosion mainly in hilly mountain of southern and western Anhui. 3) From 1980 to 2010, area of soil erosion grade weakened was 11 762.83 km2, area of soil erosion strengthened only was only 811.21 km2. Soil erosion change mainly distributed in region of 200 ~ 500 m and 15° ~ 25°. Soil erosion grade transformed stepwise. Erosion grade mainly transformed into weaker grade, and only a few of slight erosion transformed into the stronger grade. 4) According to the Markov prediction, soil erosion improved over the next 30 years, area of slight soil erosion gradually increased while areas of other erosion grades declined.